Thursday, December 26, 2013

2013 - week 17 - picks

Playoff positions up for grabs w/a couple of elimination games, PHI @DAL, GB @CHI
KC seems to be the only team w/starters that may be rested for week 17

12/29 1:00 PM
301 CAR -6½ *UNDER
302 ATL 46 *

CAR won wk9 34-10
Taking a chance w/the points, CAR D is formidable, but their O may sputter w/o WR Smith, the problem for ATL will be stopping run w/o DT Peters
CAR w/win wins NFC S and 1st rd bye
ATL ?emo? loss @SF
ATL TE Gonzales final home game

12/29 4:25 PM
303 GB -3 under
304 CHI 51½ *

CHI won wk9 27-20
GB LB Mathews OUT
GB RB Lacy ?OUT?
I can't give GB much hope w/o their star QB Rodgers. This is for the NFC North crown, looks like CHI is playoff bound.
12/26 update: GB QB Rodgers starts
even w/GB QB Rodgers back, GB D is still an issue

12/29 1:00 PM
305 HOU 44½ under?
306 TEN -7 ***

HOU won wk2 30-24
I don't think HOU will be as interested in this game as much as TEN will be, since TEN is 0-3 vs HOU (past 2 seasons), HOU does have their 0-12 streak SU, but this is a division game and I believe the split will occur for the series.
after bye TEN @home totals>56+pts
after bye HOU road totals=51,47,28
HOU D will give up at least 24pts, maybe as much as 31pts
TEN 2nd division game are lower scoring totals=36,36(both road)

12/29 1:00 PM
307 CLE 44 over?
308 PIT -7 *

PIT won wk12 27-11
PIT WR Sanders ?OUT?
PIT depth?
it's hard to envision CLE winning, PIT is just one of those teams that CLE does not have a good record 2-18 SU vs PIT, so though -7 is larger than the standard -3 at home, PIT should be favored by at least a TD, perhaps more

12/29 1:00 PM
309 WAS 46 *
310 NYG -3½ under

NYG won wk13 24-17
WAS LB Orakpo ?OUT?

12/29 1:00 PM
311 BAL 44½ under
312 CIN -6 *

BAL won wk10 20-17
this season if CIN leads or ties @half they have won game, if they are behind they have won only once SU
BAL is very similar to CIN if they are behind at half they have won only twice, if they are ahead or tied 6-2 SU

12/29 1:00 PM
313 JAC 45½ UNDER
314 IND -11½ *?

IND won wk4 37-3
I expect IND to win @home, w/losses @home to MIA and STL will IND cover?
Interestingly enough JAC is 4-0 ATS vs HOU and TEN, 0-1 vs IND

12/29 8:30 PM
315 PHI -6½ ****
316 DAL 52½ under?

DAL QB Orton starts
DAL WR Bryant back? OUT?
DAL won wk7 17-3
This is for the NFC East crown, DAL will need more than luck at home.

12/29 1:00 PM
317 NYJ 41 *
318 MIA -6½ over?

MIA snap count in question
MIA won wk13 23-3

12/29 1:00 PM
319 DET 52 *
320 MIN -3 *under

DET won wk1 34-24
MIN RB Peterson OUT
12/27 update: changed pick from MIN/Under to DET/Under

12/29 4:25 PM
321 BUF 47 under
322 NE -9½ *

NE won wk1 23-21
BUF coming off goosing MIA last weekend, NE is 19-1 vs BUF
Will NE cover?
NE does have incentive to win a first round bye

12/29 4:25 PM
323 TB 47 under
324 NO -12½ *

NO won wk2 16-14
NO SS Harper starts
Schiano has yet to win vs Payton, I want to believe in the split, but since the first game was at the start of the season, NO w/playoff incentives should win, will they cover?

12/29 4:25 PM
325 DEN -12 *
326 OAK 53 *under*

DEN won wk3 37-21
OAK QB Pryor starts
Two scores, will DEN cover? OAK D has had recent issues, so it's likely a high score for DEN O, but what about OAK O? Will OAK O score more than 14pts? DEN could score 40pts, but it's not likely. 
** DEN has won AFC West and either #1 or #2 seed **
DEN does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

12/29 4:25 PM
327 SF -1½ *UNDER
328 ARI 42½ *

SF won wk6 32-20
normally I'd go with split but SF needs to win to hold onto #5 seed and play either CHI or GB
12/27 update: changed pick from SF/UNDER to ARI/UNDER

12/29 4:25 PM
329 KC 45 *under
330 SD -9½ *

SD won wk12 41-38
SD seems to have KC's number having won the past 3 games. KC can't really improve playoff position, but KC had a bad loss last week. 
KC resting players? QB Smith? RB Charles?
Since this is a late game, if BAL and MIA lose in their early Sunday matchups SD will control their playoff destiny with a win.

12/29 4:25 PM
331 STL 43 **UNDER**
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA won wk8 14-9
Thought about taking pts, but SEA lost last weekend to division rival ARI. I don't believe they'll lose two in a row, though they may not cover the double digit spread. They should be up for this game and are 15-2 vs STL. SEA does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

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