Monday, December 09, 2013

2013 - week 14 results

Game Notes:
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep   HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired

CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.

FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.

Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.

So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...

Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE

FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....

SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10

Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL @GB 21-22 also should be a SNOW game, but it didn't go over the total, maybe because it was too cold, with a wind chill of -1 and game start temperature of 9 degrees, with winds gusting up to 15mph. An interesting view of the subterrain for the 'frozen tundra' @Lambeau Field. I think GB lost their advantage once, this field warming technology has been in place for several years now (I think).

MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.

Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.

Weekend results:

Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.

CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.

ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.
2013 - week 14 - results

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