Thursday, August 14, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - picks

A disastrous week for picks during Hall of Fame and week 1 of preseason, hopefully this week will be better. Preseason games are not for the faint of heart. There is less (accurate) information to follow and the head coach will change his mind on how long to leave his starters in the game are among the many factors for betting on preseason games, but I still pick games. I just don't have high expectations on getting the majority of picks correct. Thus the majority of football fanatics should stay away from betting on preseason, even though the sports books do post ATS and total lines for each game.

This year I have been a bit distracted and I suppose I could have done a lot better for week 1 games, but I tried a different approach in picking games and it obviously didn't work. I'll go back to assessing each teams motivation and making picks as I see fit.

08/14 8:00 PM
401 JAC 42½ *under*
402 CHI -3½ *

JAC D much improved last wk vs TB O
JAC QB Henne 1st half QB Bortle 2nd half
JAC QB Henne stinking it up
CHI O starters 'on fire' last week vs PHI D
CHI O passes to TE and deep to WRs
CHI ST issues
CHI 2nd string OL depth issues

I'm very unsure in this game. I prefer the total. JAC D appears to be much improved, but it's their O that's a real question, with their starters expected to play a half, I don't expect more than a FG or two to be generated by their first team O. The 2nd half for JAC should feature rookie QB Bortles, I would play him into Q4 and maybe let QB Stanzi get a drive or two. I'd expect anywhere from a TD or two at the most from JAC 2nd stringers and the rest of their depth players. Thus perhaps JAC will reach 20 pts, but I think it's likely it will be less. CHI scored a lot in week 1, thus the 'high' total of 42.5 and this could be true this week as well, but it's likely CHI QB Cutler will only play a quarter as he and the rest of the first string O doesn't appear to need the reps. I'll guess CHI will play QB Clausen from Q2-Q3 and maybe let QB Palmer play Q4. At this point I don't expect to see QB Fales as I would want to clearly see if Palmer or Clausen should be QB2 (I'm thinking Clausen at this point). I would expect the loser to be cut very soon to allow for QB Fales to gain more experience. Since both D's did fairly well last week (and yes I thought CHI D did fairly well vs PHI O), I don't expect a high scoring game, but the sports books have a high total for a preseason game. CHI just has a better rotation of QBs, it's their length of playing time which is the unknown factor. JAC doesn't appear to have the 'horses' on O, thus I'm thinking a fairly close low scoring game.

08/15 7:30 PM
403 PHI 46½ **
404 NE -2 **OVER**

PHI @NE for joint practices (2nd yr in a row)
rainy wet windy practices
*NE 2nd wk of joint practices*
NE will they be interested this week?
NE not set at SS
road team 4-0 SU in series
PHI WR Maclin OUT?
NE QB2 Mallett limited reps, Garoppolo more?

08/15 8:00 PM
405 TEN 43 over
406 NO -3 ****

TEN starting and back up C OUT??
NO QB#2 Griffin/McCown 'battle' last wk @STL
NO QB Brees 'OUT'

08/15 10:00 PM
407 DET 40 ***
408 OAK -3 ***UNDER***

DET sluggish?
OAK O pathetic last week @MIN
OAK almost goose egg'd
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/15 10:00 PM
409 SD 38½ *
410 SEA -6½ *UNDER

SD O starters 'on fire' vs DAL D
SD OL still has issues

08/16 4:00 PM
411 GB 41 *
412 STL -2½ *over

GB QB2 battle Flynn vs Tolzien
STL QB Bradford starts (DNP PSG1 vs NO)
**STL QB Hill 2TDs PSG1 on 7 attempts**

08/16 7:00 PM
413 NYG 41 *under
414 IND -2 *

NYG 1's to play longer 5+drives (Q1-Q2)
NYG QBs Manning Painter Nassib
IND QBs Luck Hasselbeck Harnish
IND OL injuries, C Holmes OUT
IND QB Luck Q1 2 series, if he does well again
IND CB Davis and S Landry starts

08/16 7:00 PM
415 BAL -1 over
416 DAL 41½ *

BAL satisfied w/joint practice vs SF
BAL starters to play Q1 (maybe more)
BAL QB Taylor to play Q2-Q4(partial?)
DAL D 'hideous' @SD, 'the show must go on'
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/16 7:00 PM
417 NYJ 41½ ***
418 CIN -3 UNDER

NYJ starters 2-3? series
NYJ DT Richardson 'we owe them one'
for LY 49-9 butt kicking
CIN QB2 Campbell OUT, QB Wilson p/u 8/10
CIN QBs Dalton, Scott, Wilson (QB2n3 1yr exp)

08/16 7:30 PM
419 BUF 40 UNDER
420 PIT -2½ *

BUF QB Manuel 0 TDs in preseason vs NYG, @CAR
BUF @PIT for joint practice 8/12-13
PIT "Separation Saturday"
PIT D dominating joint practice day 1

08/16 7:30 PM
421 MIA 37 under
422 TB -2½ *

MIA QB Quinn (8/10 p/u) QB#2 'battle' w/Moore
MIA QB2 Moore sore shoulder
MIA QB3 Quinn
MIA QB4 Lobato not NFL caliber
MIA OL2 can't run ball
MIA LBs can't cover RB in flat
MIA ST solid
TB OL 'shambles' @JAC

08/16 8:00 PM
423 ATL 40 *UNDER?
424 HOU -3 *

ATL @HOU for joint practice 8/13-14
ATL D still in a rut
ATL TC injuriesX6
ATL HC Smith wants RZ improvements
HOU HC O'Brien "we're terrible" last week @ARI
HOU WR Johnson hamstring OUT?
HOU D does well joint practice, O????

08/16 8:30 PM
425 ARI 38 under
426 MIN -3 *

MIN QB1 can move the ball, other QBs ??? last wk vs OAK

08/17 4:00 PM
427 DEN 40 under
428 SF -3½ *

DEN 2nd game vs NFC W D
SF satisfied w/joint practice @BAL

08/17 8:00 PM
429 KC 39 ***UNDER***
430 CAR -3½ *

KC QB Smith 1st half
KC WR Bowe sucks
KC D ahead of O, except at DB, very very suspect
CAR O QB Newton, RB Stewart and Williams to start
CAR D tough vs run
CAR miff'd no respect from nat'l media
'mostly likely to fall this year'

08/18 8:00 PM
431 CLE 41 *over
432 WAS -2 *

CLE QB Hoyer and Manziel equal 1st team reps
CLE QB Grossman to play? (8/10 p/u)
CLE WRs depth too many dropsies
CLE starters for 1st half

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