GAME RESULT(ATS/TOTAL )
PIT@BAL L/L - surprise, surprise
ATL@CHI L/L - CHI woe is me, not again - they won - convincingly
PHI@STL L/P - interesting game, PHI fumble return for TD - a turning point in the game?
TEN@JAC W/L - what was I thinking for total???
Very good ATS and not good at all for totals....
I review'd totals once again and now I noticed that there were only two games with the total set above the NFL average total of 42-45pts. If I had picked overs for all games with "low" totals, I could have been 10-1 in picks (only the TEN @JAC game stayed true to form, PHI @STL had a normal total and was either a Push or Under, 44 or 44.5 and the IND @HOU total was set high at 46.5) I wonder if next week the totals will be set a bit higher? Or will it be kept low due to teams haven't had a real offseason and are still cranking up? ATL, PIT, maybe even TEN?
As for a reason to why the totals are higher, perhaps its just tackling... or lack there of. Just look at special teams play, I was surprised by the number of runbacks, I was thinking more knees in the endzone and thus drives begin at the twenty, but instead I think ST coordinators may be wanting more returns as tackling for rookies and other ST players will be lacking in fundamentals.
There were 3 kick offs and 6 punts (by my count) returned for TDs and this weekend. That's more than half of the games w/a TD by ST.
The sportsbooks could be torn between setting the total to high, which the sharks may like and bet large amounts and move the line lower or setting the total to low and the public will drive it higher, since the public favors the over. An interesting dilemma, which I think will favor the public. After a brief review of the lines available at vegasinsider.com I noticed 4 games w/lines set between 42-45, 4 games set 46 or higher and the remaining 8 games are set at 41 or less.
This is 2 more for the average and 2 more for above average than last week, so 4 games less than average were taken away, seems a bit cautious to me. I'll hazard a guess that 8 games will fall between 42-45 and 4 above and 4 below, let's see what happens next week.