Wednesday, February 03, 2010


numbers have gone up a bit...

02/07 6:25 PM
101 New Orleans 56½
102 Indianapolis -5.5
IND-DE-Freeney-Questionable (torn ligament in ankle)

so what am I think'g????

it'll either be a FU (fav/under) or a DO (dog/over) that will win $$
w/FO (fav/over) next and DU (dog/under) as most likely not happening though mathematically there's a 25% chance that it can occur.

This year:
I noticed that after "bye" weeks NO scores are in the 40's - 20's range, so OVER and the DOG in this case.

With IND after "bye" weeks they tend to do the FU angle

so slant your prop bets this way as well, taking one of the two angles or both if you must hedge.

The Hilton has over 300 prop bets and they even have those that you can parlay, though they are limited and the majority are just single prop bets.

I'm leaning more toward the over because of DE Freeney inj, this should give NO line some breathing room w/double teaming of Mathis and IND will be forced to blitz w/LB's & safeties. IF QB Brees gets the time and the completions we'll definitely see an OVER game and if such is the case, the dog is the better bet.

The other side of the coin is ... what if NO has a repeat of their O performance in the championship game where TO's really helped their cause and their D comes up w/fewer TO's? Then you're really looking at IND as a fav/under combo to win the $$.
IND front 7 is not as good as MIN D, but IND secondary is at least on par if not better and I believe they are quicker, w/red zone D playing extremely well after "bye" weeks.

So where do I stand? I can't pick, because I was unable to watch Championship games due to work requirements and again I'll miss SB due to the same reasons.... sigh.
It really does help to watch and form your own opinions on how each team is faring,
the numbers suggest IND will win and cover and only NO D will be able to change the outcome. Sharper is the key, if he can get TO's from Manning & Co, they'll get the over and win the $$, if not, it's IND's to lose

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