Friday, January 02, 2009

NFL 08 - wildcard weekend - picks

01/03 4:30 PM
101 ATL -2 *****
102 ARI 51 under
NFC WILDCARD ROUND - [NBC]
ARZ-WR-Boldin-Probable

ATL on the road>
totals 33,33,51,41,24,38,54,41
@ TB,CAR,GB,PHI,OAK,SD,NO,MIN
scored 9,9,27,14,24,22,25,24
allowed 24,24,24,27,0,16,29,17

ATL on the road ATS 3-2 since bye wk, losses to PHI & NO
NOTE: ATL wins after ATS lost, last wk ATS loss, this week ???
ARI @home ATS 2-3 since bye wk, wins vs STL & SEA

ARI @home>
totals 41,58,54,53,66,44,49,55
vs MIA,BUF,DAL,SF,NYG,STL,MIN,SEA
scored 31,41,30,29,29,34,14,34
allowed 10,17,24,24,37,10,35,21

ATL seems to be on an offensive TO streak 1,3,1,3,0,3, ?
ATL D # of tackles for loss 5,5,1,6,8,8
ATL has lost only 2 games SU of last 7 games

ARI# of Offensive TO's last 7 games> 3,2,4,1,2,2,2
ARI has won only 2 games SU of last 6 games

ATL D is the key, if they dominate they'll win easily, if not the game will be high scoring and close



01/03 8:00 PM
103 IND -1 *****
104 SD 51 UNDER
AFC WILDCARD ROUND - [NBC]
IND-S-Sanders-Probable
SD-RB-Tomlinson-Probable, TE-Gates-Probable

rematch of 11/23 game
IND on the road>
totals 33,58,48,52,44,43,16,55
@ MIN,HOU,GB,TEN,PIT,SD,CLE,JAC
notice OVER games were division games
vs interconference teams totals of 34,33,44,43,16,38
IND on 9 game winning streak since loss to TEN

SD @home since bye wk very iffy
1pt wins vs KC twice, 27 & 31 pt wins vs OAK & DEN, 3 & 6 pt loss @home vs IND & ATL
won @ TB by 17 (wk16), trailed into Q4 20-24

IND Manning & Co are so good in the playoffs, that I don't see how SD D will keep up and IND D is underrated and will get TO's



01/04 1:00 PM
105 BAL -3.5 ****
106 MIA 37½ OVER
AFC WILDCARD ROUND - [CBS]

rematch of 10/19 game
BAL on the road>
totals 43,34,40,64,54,40,37,57
@ PIT,IND,MIA,CLE,HOU,NYG,CIN,DAL
lost to PIT by 3, IND by 28, NYG by 20

BAL appears to be in a groove for last 11 weeks w/only losses to PIT by 4 & NYG by 20,
winning by double digits except @DAL by 9

BAL 10-3-1 ATS last 14 wks (12-3-1 ATS/season)
MIA 'dog is 13-1 ATS last 14 wks (13-3 season)
MIA road team is 11-3 ATS last 14 wks (12-4 season)
MIA plays close games except w/NE (win @NE 25 wk3/loss @MIA 20 wk12)
loss to @ARI 21 (wk2) loss vs BAL 14 (wk7) win at BUF 13 (wk14)

Probably best game of the weekend, will MIA have answer for BAL unbalanced OL plays?

01/04 4:30 PM
107 PHI -3 *
108 MIN 41½ UNDER
NFC WILDCARD ROUND - [FOX]

PHI on the road>
totals 78,44,66,33,26,43,34,13
@ DAL,CHI,SF,SEA,CIN,BAL,NYG,WAS
scored 37,20,40,26,13,7,20,3
allowed 41,24,26,7,13,36,14,10

PHI home team ATS 6-1 last 7
PHI last 6 games double digit winning margin (+20) except vs division opponents

MIN @home>
totals 33,30,22,49,55,48,41,39
vs IND,CAR,DET,HOU,GB,CHI,ATL,NYG
scored 15,20,12,28,34,17,20
allowed 18,10,10,21,27,14,24,19

MIN since bye, except for game vs CHI, winning margin is single digits, 7,1,20,7,1,?

PHI should win as long as D doesn't give up big yardage plays.

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