NFL 08 - conference championships - picks

01/18 3:00 PM
313 PHI -3.5 *****
314 ARI 47½ UNDER
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (FOX)

I have a hard time reading ARI O & D or maybe I just don't believe what I'm seeing...PHI D is on par w/PIT D, but not quite BAL D
PHI O except for a blip @WAS has been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 38-67%
ARI O except for blips @NE, & vs MIN, has also been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 31-67%. The difference is PHI D has allowed scoring at no greater than 25%, while ARI has allowed 15% this last game which is really good, but this season each time their D has allowed <20%
scoring, the following game is between 33-45% so this doesn't bode well for ARI D
I expect PHI D to play very well again, keep PHI in the game and their O to solve the riddle sometime in the late 2nd Q or mid 3rd Q. Everything rides on ARI QB Warner if he plays well,
they stay close (and the over) if not, then we could see a blow out....

01/18 6:30 PM
315 BAL 33½ *****
316 PIT -6 UNDER
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (CBS)

This should be a close game so taking the pts will win ATS.
I watched MLB Ray Lewis talk about the injustice of a called TD while @home vs PIT, when the receiver had feet in the TD zone, but the ball had not crossed the plane. BAL will be playing not to let the ref's decide the game and should be ferocious on D and O.
PIT D scoring efficiency is not quite as good as BAL D in the past 7 weeks.
PIT O scoring efficiency has been much better than BAL O, but PIT this year, has not been able to keep up these scoring outbursts and so I suspect that w/BAL conservative O that this game will be an UNDER game and pts will be at a premium.