2015 - week 05 - results

Ouch, my pick of HOU/Under combo is the opposite if the winning IND/OVER combo... sigh
Not a good sign for the rest of the weekend. note: odds opened at IND -1 game time IND +5
HUGE losses for bettors, HUGE win for casino

Douch (double ouch) my change from PHI/Under to NO/Under is the same result as above. If I had left it alone, I would have had at least half of it right for the game

KC losing RB Charles will lower scoring or keep their games low scoring...
(this ruined my KC/Over pick as CHI/Under won)

So I ended up 6-8 ATS and 6-8 totals for the week, sub .500
I ended up with loss/loss (ATS/total) for several games - IND @HOU, CHI @KC, WAS @ATL, NO @PHI, SF@NYG

and what a dramatic finish for MNF, with PIT RB Bell scoring the game winning TD in the final seconds of the game.

2015 - week 05 - results

2015 - week 05 - picks

10/7 update:
 - numbers added for IND @HOU, looks like early bettors are taking HOU
 - changed pick from PHI/Under to NO/Under

CoB NE TEN
GiB DAL OAK STL TB

301 IND  -1 under
302 HOU  45 **

IND 'DOG 4-0 ATS
even if IND QB Luck starts, HOU s/b the right side for ATS
HOU QB Mallet starts
HOU opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
451 JAC 42 *
452 TB -3 **OVER**

JAC alt wins ATS LWLW?
TB GiB



10/11 1:00 PM
453 BUF -2½ ***
454 TEN 42½ under

WH OVER 3-0
BUF might lose if they do more self infliction
BUF alt wins ATS WLWL?
TEN CoB
TEN 'DOG/OVER 3-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
455 CLE 43½ *
456 BAL -6½ *OVER*

CLE alt wins LWLW?
CLE OVER 4-0
BAL opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
BAL should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
457 WAS 48 over
458 ATL -7½ *

WH FAV SU 4-0
WAS alt wins ATS LWLW?
ATL should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS
ATL 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
459 CHI 45 **OVER**
460 KC -9½ *

KC should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS
KC OVER 4-0 ATS
CHI C Montgomery OFY, OL shuffle?
CHI opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
461 NO 49 *
462 PHI -5 *UNDER

WH FAV 4-0 ATS
NO opponent/OVER 6pt tease ATS 4-0
PHI 'DOG/UNDER 4-0 ATS


10/11 1:00 PM
463 STL 46½ under
464 GB -9½ *

STL GiB
STL another letdown game?
GB 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
465 SEA 44 *under*
466 CIN -1 ***

CIN O = at least 4 scores, same for SEA?
CIN 4-0 ATS/SU
CIN 6pt tease OVER 4-0



10/11 4:05 PM
467 ARI -3 ***
468 DET 44 over

ARI OVER 4-0
will DET score 14 pts?



10/11 4:25 PM
469 NE -9 *
470 DAL 50 over

NE CoB
NE 2-0-1 ATS
NE 6pt tease OVER 3-0
DAL DE Hardy, LB McClain returns
DAL QB Weedon 2nd start
DAL GiB



10/11 4:25 PM
471 DEN -5½ *under
472 OAK 43½ *

WH Road 4-0 ATS
DEN LB Wolfe returns
DEN 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
OAK GiB
OAK OVER 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 8:30 PM
473 SF 43 under
474 NYG -7 *****



10/12 8:30 PM
475 PIT 45½ *
476 SD -3½ over

WH Over 3-0
PIT WR Bryant returns
PIT QB Vick start #2
PIT 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
SD TE Gates returns
SD opponent/OVER 6pt tease 4-0 ATS

2014 - week 05 - results

Another TNF blow out game. The home team is 4-1 SU this year
The winner is easily covering the spread with at least a 20 pt win.

GB 16  @SEA 36  HFO
PIT 6  @BAL 26  HFU
TB 14  @ATL 56  HFO
NYG 45 @WAS 14  RDO
MIN 10 @GB 42   HFO

That's 4 wins for the home team, the favored and OVER the total. If you had made separate bets for Home, Favored and Over, you would've won all three for 3 of the past 5 weeks, won two in week 2 and won 1 in week 4. That's a really good winning percentage for winning 12 of 15 bets.

I know, I know most people would not bet three separate bets on TNF and choose instead to bet just two bets, either HO or FO, but you would still have an impressive winning percentage on 8 of 10 bets.

As for my picks, I picked the total correctly for weeks 1,2,4 and I've picked the side correctly for weeks 3-5. Only for week 4 did I pick both the side and total correctly. So I'm 6 of 10 so far, not bad, but could be better.

This year for whatever reason, I think I'm picking the sides better, but I'm just not zoned in on the totals, really odd or maybe it's a combination of new officiating crews (the biggest turnover in decades that I can recall), the enforcement of the holding calls and new rules, plus really watching only the TNF and SNF editions live (MNF are iffy for me) of NFL football.

2014 - week 05 - results

This season it took me until week 05 to post a record (W-L) over .500 ATS and for totals as well.

As for the season totals, I'm just below .500 ATS and just over .500 for the totals, so am I really doing better ATS this season? hmmmm... I think I'll reserve judgement until we reach the season's halfway point.

I'm L/L for both BAL @IND and ARI @DEN. ARI starting QB was injured during the game and their backup QB stunk it up, DEN just rode big MO the rest of the way...  As for BAL I wonder if this is just a down week or have some issues caught up with them? IND is looking like a formidable threat to make more than just first round noise in the playoffs this year. DEN is already there and SD if they can stay healthy looks to be a top contender as well for the AFC

I did have 5 games of W/W ATS/totals and the rest were split either W/L or L/W.

Teams Coming off a Bye (CoB) week have a 2-4 W-L SU record and a 3-3 W-L ATS record

Teams Going into a Bye (GiB) week have a 1-1 W-L SU record and a 1-1 W-L ATS record, so far this season team GiB have split 4-4 SU and ATS records. So no trending at all for the 7 GiB teams and it doesn't look like there will be any advantage tracking CoB's as well.

3Game/4Game streaks for week 5

The underlined header is the angle/type of bet, for instance;

over/3G/ = 3 game streak of over the total for the team(s) listed below
home/3G/ = 3 game streak of the home team winning ATS for the team(s) listed below
fav/3G/ = 3 game streak of the favorite winning for the team(s) listed below
ATSwin/3G/ = 3 game streak of ATS win for the team(s) listed below

over over
3G 4G
CLE
IND
JAC
WAS


under under
3G 4G
CIN BUF
DEN SF
DET
ARI


home home
3G 4G
SEA ATL
 NO


road road
3G 4G
NYJ CHI
OAK
STL


fav fav
3G 4G
BAL JAC
 DET


dog dog
3G 4G
PHI KC
SF


ATSwin ATSwin
3G 4G
CIN SD
BAL
KC
DAL


ATSloss ATSloss
3G 4G
TEN JAC
SF
DEN(0-2-1)

(DEN doesn't really have a 3 game streak of losing ATS, but they also don't have a 3 game streak for winning either)

Coincidental?
KC @SF, this weekend, will KC win the $?

BUF @DET, a 3 game and a 4 game UNDER the total streak

ARI @DEN, 3 game UNDER the total streak (x2)

STL @PHI, a 3 game road streak and a 3 game dog streak, will STL win the $?


One of these streaks will be broken:
Either - NYJ 3G road streak or SD 4G ATSwin streak
Either - BAL 3G favorite streak or BAL 3G ATS win streak

2014 - week 05 - the rest of the weekends picks

Coming off bye COB
ARI CIN CLE DEN SEA STL

10/05 1:00 PM
451 CHI 45½ *
452 CAR -2½ over

CHI starters returning?
CHI DE Allen returns
CAR RB Reaves starts? or is it Ogbonnaya?



10/05 1:00 PM
453 CLE 44½ *
454 TEN -1½ under

CLE COB
CLE RB Tate starts?
TEN QB Locker starts (coming off wrist injury)



10/05 1:00 PM
455 STL 48 over
456 PHI -7 *

STL QB Davis starts
STL COB
PHI RT Johnson returns (from susp)



10/05 1:00 PM
457 ATL 50½ under
458 NYG -4 *****

ATL OL shuffle x3?
ATL WR Jones? ST Hester?
ATL LB Shembo? FS Ishmael?



10/05 1:00 PM
459 TB 48½ ****
460 NO -10½ over

TB looks like a lot of points
NO plays better at home
NO O and D need to play a complete game



10/05 1:00 PM
461 HOU 46½ under
462 DAL -6 *



10/05 1:00 PM
463 BUF 44 under
464 DET -7 **

BUF QB Orton starts
BUF DT Williams? WLB Bradham?



10/05 1:00 PM
465 BAL 48½ ***
466 IND -3½ over

IND FS Landry susp'd 4G



10/05 1:00 PM
467 PIT -6½ ****
468 JAC 47 UNDER



10/05 4:05 PM
469 ARI 48½ *
470 DEN -7½ UNDER

ARI should play keep away...
ARI QB Stanton starts
ARI COB
DEN COB



10/05 4:25 PM
471 KC 44 **
472 SF -6 UNDER

KC LT Stephenson returns  (from susp)



10/05 4:25 PM
473 NYJ 43½ UNDER
474 SD -6½ ***

NYJ WR x2? x3? injured



10/05 8:30 PM
475 CIN -1 ****
476 NE 46 over

CIN COB



10/06 8:30 PM
477 SEA -7 ***
478 WAS 45½ over

WAS QB Cousins starts
SEA COB

2014 - week 05 - TNF - picks

So who starts for MIN? QB Bridgewater? or QB Ponder?
Will it make that much of a difference?

10/02 8:25 PM
301 MIN 47½ under
302 GB -8 *

?RAIN?
MIN QB Ponder? Bridgewater?
So GB should win SU, but ATS? hmmmm?
MIN must play keep away, "run, run and short pass'g"
if they do I suspect under the total will win

2013 - week 5 - results

BUF @CLE, great start for BUF, poor play on ST, O and D by CLE. 2nd drive for CLE and QB Hoyer is injured (Rknee). QB Weeden subs somehow CLE gets their running O to go. Q3 BUF QB Manuel is injured (Rknee), BUF QB Tuel subs, continuing the drive BUF scores a TD and takes a 24-17 lead. So with the battle of the backup QB going on, who would have thought the total would go way OVER 41.5? 24-37  = 61 total pts. Great finish by CLE. In the post interview, you hear from QB Weeden that he had no reps for the past two weeks, so this really explains the slow start. If you followed the game coverage via nfl.com the well respected analysts did pan Weeden for his lack of speed in processing coverage and quickly throwing the ball to the correct receiver on time. But if you did notice, Weeden improved during the game, which could also be attributed to play calling as well. A heavy dose of McGahee was part of the winning formula, along w/ST and D that played better after a slow start. This team is among the 3 youngest in the NFL, they appear to have lots of room for growth. Tuel time was not to be.

NE @CIN, Q4 rain deluge from the heavens ends NE, a defensive battle from the start. CIN does finally have some big plays in 2nd half and found a way to win, a young team growing. NE is the old warrior, that's trying to re-tool in season.

NO @CHI, not much of a game, NO D dominates and NO O finds enough answers to consistently score. CHI O couldn't find answers and their D played tough w/o DT Melton.

BAL @MIA, Q4 look-in, just confirms BAL DL controls MIA OL.


DET @GB, DET WR C Johnson out, but they had him listed as questionable (knee) so DET played the game w/o WR #1 and #2, If I had known I would never pick DET. Really disappointing for me, I need a more reliable source of information on who starts

DEN @DAL, except for the one punt by DAL, just like Arena football, teams score or give up the ball on a turnover or downs. DAL played far better than I thought they would on O. DEN O is just amazing to watch.


HOU @SF, HOU QB Schaub... has an interception returned for a TD for four consecutive game a dubious record? HOU O can move the ball on the ground and their D is fierce, but SF trampled them, bigger OL, smarter D


2nd Quarter of the season has begun and it looks like for week 5 I'll be at .500 ATS and below .500 for weekly totals.
Note: I had errors for season totals with weeks 3 and 4, this has been corrected for week 5 and is highlighted.

2013 - week 05 - results

2013 - week 05 - picks

NFC East 1-10 SU vs non-division opponents

TEAMS w/10 days rest 5-1 ATS/SU W(BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC) L[PHI] this week SF, STL

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) ATL, MIA
Teams Going into Bye 3-3 ATS/SU W(CAR, MIN, WAS) L[GB, PIT, TB]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) CAR, GB

10/06 1:00 PM
413 KC -3 ***
414 TEN 39 ***UNDER***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick starts, 
(Pre Season Game 1)
TEN 4-0 vs HC Reid


10/06 1:00 PM
415 BAL 43½ under
416 MIA -3 *

BAL LT Monroe starts? (acquired via trade w/JAC)
BAL WR Jones returns?
MIA GiB


10/06 1:00 PM
417 JAC 42 over?
418 STL -11½ *?

JAC OL shuffle @LT and RT
JAC WR Blackmon returns
STL 10 days rest
STL SLB Dunbar starts?


10/06 1:00 PM
419 NE 45 *
420 CIN -1½ under?




10/06 1:00 PM
421 SEA -3 ***UNDER***
422 IND 43½ *

SEA DE Irvin returns


10/06 1:00 PM
423 DET 53½ ****
424 GB -7 **OVER**

GB CoB


10/06 1:00 PM
425 NO 49 *
426 CHI -1 over?




10/06 1:00 PM
427 PHI 54½ *
428 NYG -2 OVER




10/06 4:05 PM
429 CAR -2 ****
430 ARI 42½ under?

CAR CoB
ARI new LT Sowell starts
ARI ILB Washington returns


10/06 8:35 PM
431 SD -4½ ***
432 OAK 44½ under




10/06 4:25 PM
433 DEN -7½ ***
434 DAL 57 over?




10/06 8:30 PM
435 HOU 42½ *
436 SF -7 *over?

SF 10 days rest


10/07 8:40 PM
437 NYJ 44 *
438 ATL -10 **under**

NYJ WRx2 OUT
ATL GiB
ATL LBx2 (Worrilow, Dent), LT Baker out???
10/4 update: changed pick from ATL/U to NYJ/U
ATL should win SU, but covering -10??

Crazy? taking STL -11½? and ATL -10? Maybe not so much, JAC is on the road and just traded their best OL, QB Gabbert starts and suddenly -14 looks like a distinct possiblity.
NYJ in the mean time are again on the road against a 1-3 ATL team, that though are down several starters have a D that should shut down NYJ O and ATL O if they come to life should score at least 24pts. I'm thinking NYJ will be lucky to score 10pts... 10/4 update: changed pick from ATL/U to NYJ/U

2013 - week 05 - Thursday picks

10/03 8:25 PM
301 BUF 41 ***UNDER***
302 CLE 4½ *

wk3 for CLE QB Hoyer
BAL - common opponent BUF won, CLE lost
curious not -3½, but -4½

CLE w/QB Hoyer has been hot, I think I'll ride the hot, than back numbers that say to take BUF and pts

GRID - 2013 - week 05

I haven't been keeping up with posting my weekly GRID, but late is better than never I suppose for this.

GRID - 2013 - week 05

You'll note that I have pushed IND and TEN up much higher and have dropped HOU. It's just HOU TO's by QB Schaub are troubling. Schaub has yet to make that jump to elite, consider him good, but not great.

KC and CAR are also another notable leapers up the grid, while the NFC East is really playing so-so at best. I've also knocked down CIN, GB and SF. I've thought about flipping SD and DAL, but decided to leave it as is for now.

What maybe surprising to most is that I have BUF so high and that could be because of the way I rank teams, it doesn't correlate to a team's W-L record at the beginning of the season, but seems to do so toward the end of the season. I could switch BUF and MIA, but again I chose to leave as is and let the natural course of the season effect each team.