Thursday, October 09, 2014

2014 - week 05 - results

Another TNF blow out game. The home team is 4-1 SU this year
The winner is easily covering the spread with at least a 20 pt win.

GB 16  @SEA 36  HFO
PIT 6  @BAL 26  HFU
TB 14  @ATL 56  HFO
NYG 45 @WAS 14  RDO
MIN 10 @GB 42   HFO

That's 4 wins for the home team, the favored and OVER the total. If you had made separate bets for Home, Favored and Over, you would've won all three for 3 of the past 5 weeks, won two in week 2 and won 1 in week 4. That's a really good winning percentage for winning 12 of 15 bets.

I know, I know most people would not bet three separate bets on TNF and choose instead to bet just two bets, either HO or FO, but you would still have an impressive winning percentage on 8 of 10 bets.

As for my picks, I picked the total correctly for weeks 1,2,4 and I've picked the side correctly for weeks 3-5. Only for week 4 did I pick both the side and total correctly. So I'm 6 of 10 so far, not bad, but could be better.

This year for whatever reason, I think I'm picking the sides better, but I'm just not zoned in on the totals, really odd or maybe it's a combination of new officiating crews (the biggest turnover in decades that I can recall), the enforcement of the holding calls and new rules, plus really watching only the TNF and SNF editions live (MNF are iffy for me) of NFL football.

2014 - week 05 - results
This season it took me until week 05 to post a record (W-L) over .500 ATS and for totals as well.
As for the season totals, I'm just below .500 ATS and just over .500 for the totals, so am I really doing better ATS this season? hmmmm... I think I'll reserve judgement until we reach the season's halfway point.

I'm L/L for both BAL @IND and ARI @DEN. ARI starting QB was injured during the game and their backup QB stunk it up, DEN just rode big MO the rest of the way...  As for BAL I wonder if this is just a down week or have some issues caught up with them? IND is looking like a formidable threat to make more than just first round noise in the playoffs this year. DEN is already there and SD if they can stay healthy looks to be a top contender as well for the AFC

I did have 5 games of W/W ATS/totals and the rest were split either W/L or L/W.

Teams Coming off a Bye (CoB) week have a 2-4 W-L SU record and a 3-3 W-L ATS record
Teams Going into a Bye (GiB) week have a 1-1 W-L SU record and a 1-1 W-L ATS record, so far this season team GiB have split 4-4 SU and ATS records. So no trending at all for the 7 GiB teams and it doesn't look like there will be any advantage tracking CoB's as well.

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