week 17 results - you can tell I'm not paying attention this week

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 2 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 3 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CAR, RFO)
game 4 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CIN, RFO)
game 5 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (WAS, HFO)
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 7 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (HOU, HFO)
game 8 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 9 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (BAL, HDO)
game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ATL, HFO)
game 11 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 12 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (DEN, HDU)
game 14 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (SD, RFO)
game 15 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ARI, HFO)
game 16 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

ATS weekly:
ATS 9-23 side 5-11 total 4-12

ATS for the year:
ATS 254-245-13 sides 131-116-1 totals 124-129-4

week 17 picks - belated for Saturday

12/29 8:15 PM
411 NE -13.5 under
412 NYG 46½ *
New England clinched #1 seed (playing for undefeated season)
NY Giants clinched #5 seed (may rest starters)
NE-S-Harrison-Questionable
NYG-RB-Jacobs-Probable

12/30 1:00 PM
419 BUF 37 under
420 PHI -7.5 *
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible inclement weather

12/30 1:00 PM
421 CAR -2.5 under
422 TB 36 *
CAR-QB-Testaverde-Questionable
Tampa Bay clinched #4 seed (may rest starters)

12/30 1:00 PM
423 CIN -3 under**
424 MIA 46 *
CIN-RB-R. Johnson-Questionable

12/30 4:15 PM
425 DAL 39 *
426 WAS -9 over
Dallas may rest starters clinched #1 seed
Washington win clinches #6 seed
DAL-WR-Owens-OUT

12/30 1:00 PM
427 DET 39 under
428 GB -4 *Green Bay clinched #2 seed (may rest starters)
DET-RB-Jones-OUT
GB-WR-Jennings-Questionable

12/30 1:00 PM
429 JAC 41 *
430 HOU -6.5 under
Jacksonville clinched #5 seed (may rest starters)
HOU-RB-Dayne-Questionable, QB-Schaub-Questionable

12/30 1:00 PM
431 NO -2.5 under***
432 CHI 40 *
New Orleans playing for possible widcard
(Needs a win and both Minnesota and Washington to lose)
NO-RB-Bush-Questionable, WR-Colston-Questionable

12/30 4:15 PM
433 PIT -4 *
434 BAL 35 under
Pittsburgh may rest starters, clinched playoff (#3 or #4 seed)
PIT-RB-Parker-OUT
BAL-QB-Boller-Doubtful, RB-McGahee-Doubtful

12/30 1:00 PM
435 SEA 38 *
436 ATL -2.5 under*Seattle clinched #3 seed (may rest starters)
SEA-WR-Hackett-Questionable

12/30 1:00 PM
437 SF 40 ****
438 CLE -10 under*
Cleveland playing for possible wild card (needs a Tennessee loss)
S F-QB-Hill-Questionable

12/30 8:15 PM
439 TEN -6.5 under*
440 IND 39½ *
Tennessee win clinches #6 seed
IND-RB-Addai-Questionable, WR-Gonzalez-Questionable
IND-WR-Harrison-Questionable

12/30 4:15 PM
441 MIN -3 over*
442 DEN 41½ *
Minnesota playing for possible wildcard(Needs a win and a Washington loss)

12/30 4:15 PM
443 SD -8 under*
444 OAK 42½ *
San Diego clinched playoff, could be #3 seed
OAK-QB-Russell-Expected to start

12/30 4:15 PM
445 STL 48 *
446 ARI -6 under*

12/30 4:15 PM
447 KC 34 under
448 NYJ -6 *
KC-QB-Croyle-Questionable, RB-Johnson-Doubtful

week 16 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 2 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 3 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 5 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 7 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (NYG, RFU -BUF@home?)
game 9 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 10 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 11 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 12 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ATL, RDO -ARI@home? )
game 13 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 14 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 15 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 16 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

ATS weekly:
ATS 21-11 side 10-6 total 11-5

ATS for the year:
ATS 245-222-13 sides 126-105-1 totals 120-117-4

week 16 picks

12/20 8:15 PM
301 PIT -7.5 over******
302 STL 44 ***
PIT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable
STL-QB-Bulger-Probable
Pittsburgh can earn possible #3 seed

12/22 8:15 PM
307 DAL -10.5 under*
308 CAR 43 *****
DAL-QB-Romo-Probable
CAR-QB-Testaverde-Probable, WR-Smith Questionable
Dallas can earn possible #1 seed
Carolina has remote chance of playoffs

12/23 1:00 PM
315 CLE -3 *
316 CIN 43½ under*
Possible inclement weather
Cleveland controls wild card destiny

12/23 1:00 PM
317 GB -8.5 under*
318 CHI 36 *
Possible inclement weather
Green Bay can earn possible #1 seed

12/23 1:00 PM
319 HOU 45 **
320 IND -7 over*****
INDY is locked in to #2 spot, could potentially rest starters?
HOU-QB-Schaub-Questionable, RB-Green-OUT
IND-WR-Harrison-OUT

12/23 1:00 PM
321 KC 43½ under*
322 DET -4.5 ****
KC-RB-Johnson-Doubtful

12/23 4:15 PM
323 MIA 44½ **
324 NE -22 under*
Possible inclement weather
New England locked into #1 seed

12/23 1:00 PM
325 NYG -2.5 under*
326 BUF 33 *
Possible inclement weather
NY Giants have chance at Wild Card
NYG-TE-Shockey-OUT

12/23 1:00 PM
327 OAK 39 over*****
328 JAC -13 ******
OAK-RB-Fargas-OUT
Jacksonville possible Wild Card

12/23 1:00 PM
329 PHI 47 *
330 NO -3 over***
New Orleans possible Wild Card

12/23 8:15 PM
331 WAS 40½ *
332 MIN -6.5 over***
Washington still in contention for wildcard
Minnesota controls Wild Card Destiny

12/23 4:05 PM
333 ATL 43½ under*
334 ARI -10 ********

12/23 4:15 PM
335 BAL 39½ under*
336 SEA -10 ******
BAL-QB-Boller-Questionable; LB-Lewis-OUT
Seattle possible #3 or #4 seed

12/23 4:15 PM
337 NYJ 37 under*
338 TEN -9 ***
NYJ-QB-Clemens-Questionable
Tennessee possible Wild Card

12/23 4:05 PM
339 TB -7 over
340 SF 37 ***
Tampa Bay possible #3 or #4 seed

12/24 8:00 PM
343 DEN 47 over***
344 SD -8.5 **
San Diego possible #3 seed

week 15 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 2 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 3 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (NO, HFO)

game 4 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 5 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 6 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CLE, HFU) blizzard - should have changed total pick

game 7 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 8 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 9 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CAR, HDU - SEA eastcoast meltdown?)

game 11 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 12 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 13 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (should've known DET the big emo letdown)

game 14 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 15 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1


game 16 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0


ATS weekly:

ATS 16-16 side 8-8 total 8-8


ATS for the year:

ATS 224-211-13 sides 116-99-1 totals 109-112-4

week 15 picks

12/13 8:15 PM
251 DEN -1.5 over
252 HOU 47 ****
HOU-QB-Schaub-Doubtful, RB-Darius Walker-Expected to start
HOU-RB-Dayne-Doubtful

12/15 8:15 PM
253 CIN -8.5 ******
254 SF 43 under***
SF-QB-Dilfer-Doubtful, QB-Hill-Expected to start

12/16 1:00 PM
255 ARI 47 *
256 NO -4 under
ARZ-WR-Boldin-Questionable
NO-RB-Bush-OUT

12/16 1:00 PM
257 ATL 39 ***
258 TB -13 over
ATL-QB-Leftwich-Probable
TB-QB-Garcia-Probable

12/16 1:00 PM
259 BAL -3.5 **
260 MIA 37½ over******
MIA-QB-Lemon-Expected to start, RB-Chatman-Questionable

12/16 1:00 PM
261 BUF 43 *
262 CLE -5.5 over**
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible inclement weather

12/16 1:00 PM
263 GB -9.5 *
264 STL 45 over*
STL-QB-Bulger-Questionable; QB-Frerotte-Questionable

12/16 1:00 PM
265 JAC 37 ****
266 PIT -3.5 over
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible inclement weather
PIT-S-Polamalu-Questionable

12/16 1:00 PM
267 NYJ 46½ ***
268 NE -23.5 under***
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible inclement weather
NYJ-WR-Coles-Questionable
NE-TE-Watson-Questionable

12/16 1:00 PM
269 SEA -7 ****
270 CAR 37 over***
SEA-WR-Hackett-OUT, WR-Engram-Questionable
CAR-QB-Testaverde-Questionable

12/16 1:00 PM
271 TEN -4 *
272 KC 34 under
KC-RB-Smith-Questionable

12/16 4:05 PM
273 IND -10.5 over
274 OAK 45 **
IND-WR-Harrison-OUT
OAK-RB-Fargas-Probable

12/16 4:15 PM
275 DET 45½ *****
276 SD -10 over*
SD-Rivers-Upgraded to Probable, TE-Gates-Questionable
SD-OLB-Merriman-Out

12/16 4:15 PM
277 PHI 48½ *
278 DAL -10.5 over*
PHI-RB-Westbrook-Probable
DAL-WR-Crayton-Probable

12/16 8:15 PM
279 WAS 37 ***
280 NYG -4.5 over****
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible inclement weather
WAS-QB-Campbell-OUT

12/17 8:30 PM
281 CHI 43½ under*
282 MIN -10 *
CHI-QB-Grossman-OUT, QB-Orton-Expected to start

week 14 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 2 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 3 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (DET, HDO)
game 4 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 5 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 6 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (GB, HFO)
game 7 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 9 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CIN, HFU)
game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (HOU, HDO)
game 11 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 12 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 13 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 14 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (DEN, HFO)
game 15 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 16 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

ATS weekly:
ATS 15-17 side 10-6 total 5-11

ATS for the year:
ATS 208-195-13 sides 108-91-1 totals 101-104-4

week 14 picks

12/06 8:15 PM
101 CHI 37 under
102 WAS -3 ** just an emo pick stats say to take dog

12/09 1:00 PM
103 CAR 38 over
104 JAC -10.5 * DT Stroud is back from 4 game suspension

12/09 1:00 PM
105 DAL -11 *******
106 DET 51½ under
DET-WR-Williams-OUT for season

12/09 1:00 PM
107 MIA 36½ under*
108 BUF -7 *Possible inclement weather
MIA-RB-Chatman-Questionable
BUF-RB-Lynch-Questionable

12/09 1:00 PM
109 NYG 42½ under*** NYG on the road an under team
110 PHI -3 *** PHI @home UOUOUO?
NY-RB-Jacobs-Probable, RB-Ward-OUT
PHI-QB-McNabb-Probable

12/09 1:00 PM
111 OAK 42 *
112 GB -10 under* QB issues * can clinch NFC North
OAK-QB-Culpepper-Questionable
GB-QB-Favre-Probable dislocated shoulder (non-throwing), QB Rogers out? QB Nall pickup off street cramming on Wed
Possible inclement weather, snow, wind chill

12/09 4:15 PM
113 PIT 49½ under
114 NE -11 ***
PIT-WR-Holmes-Questionable, RB-Davenport-Questionable

12/09 1:00 PM
115 SD -1 *****
116 TEN 41 under
TEN-RB-White-Questionable

12/09 1:00 PM
117 STL 48 ****
118 CIN -6.5 over
STL-QB-Bulger-Upgraded to PROBABLE, QB-Frerotte-OUT

12/09 1:00 PM
119 TB -3 ** nice article on MLB B Rudd @footballoutsiders.com
120 HOU 40 under*
TB-QB-Garcia-Probable
HOU-QB-Schaub-OUT, RB-Green-Questionable

12/09 4:05 PM
121 ARI 44 under
122 SEA -7 ****
ARZ-WR''s-Fitzgerald-Questionable, Boldin-Doubtful
SEA-WR-Hackett-OUT

12/09 4:05 PM
123 MIN -8 **
124 SF 39 under*
MIN-WR-Williamson-Questionable
SF-QB-Smith-Doubtful

12/09 4:15 PM
125 CLE -3.5 *
126 NYJ 47½ over****
NYJ-WR-Cotchery-Questionable

12/09 4:15 PM
127 KC 37½ **
128 DEN -6.5 under* can they stop KC run game?
Possible inclement weather
KC-QB''s-Croyle-Probable, Huard-Questionable, RB-Johnson-OUT
DEN-RB-Young-Questionable

12/09 8:15 PM
129 IND -9.5 *
130 BAL 43 under* letdown? I noticed if a team won ATS when playing NE, they have lost next game outright and ATS
IND-WR-Harrison-Doubtful
BAL-TE-Heap-Questionable

12/10 8:30 PM
131 NO -4.5 ****
132 ATL 43 under
ATL-QB-Leftwich-Questionable

MNF comment

With the weather wreaking havoc before NE @BAL game, the casinos decided either to remove total of 48 (which dropped to 46) or only offer by itself (without parlay).

Since I tend to be a game day bettor, this was crummy but in retrospect turned out very good for me as I was unable to bet the dog/under combo (BAL +19/under 48) and thus only took the points. As it was BAL played far better than expected and the total ended up at 51 (27+24). The casinos in their defensive posture of not taking in parlays of side & total for MNF won less money than if they had just allowed parlays. Of course if you had the 6point tease parlay going you won w/BAL and/or under and/or over.

Turnovers killed BAL as the rest of the stats say they should have won. I'd bet on BAL and against NE in there respective upcoming games

week 13 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 2 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 3 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 5 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (TEN, HFO)
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 7 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 8 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 9 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CAR, HFO)
game 11 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (TB, ADO)
game 12 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (OAK, HDO)
game 14 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 15 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (PIT, HFU)
game 16 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (BAL, HDO)
ATS weekly:
ATS 12-20 side 6-10 total 6-10

ATS for the year:
ATS 193-178-13 sides 98-85-1 totals 96-93-4

week 13 picks - whoops I forgot to post

11/29 8:15 PM

301 GB 51½ *

302 DAL -7 over******


12/02 1:00 PM

337 ATL 41 under*

338 STL -4.5 ***

STL-QB-Bulger-Questionable



12/02 1:00 PM

339 BUF 37 under*

340 WAS -6 *****

BUF-RB-Lynch-Doubtful, QB-Edwards-Expected to start


12/02 1:00 PM

341 DET 45 *

342 MIN -3.5 over*****

MIN-RB-Peterson-Probable


12/02 1:00 PM

343 HOU 42 *

344 TEN -3.5 under**

HOU-RB-Green-Questionable


12/02 1:00 PM

345 JAC 45 *

346 IND -7 under*

IND-WR-Harrison-Questionable


12/02 1:00 PM

347 NYJ 38 *

348 MIA -1.5 under*

NYJ-WR-Coles-Questionable



12/02 1:00 PM

349 SD -5 ***

350 KC 37½ under*

KC-RB-Johnson-Doubtful


12/02 1:00 PM

351 SEA 42 ****

352 PHI -3 under*

SEA-WR-Hackett-Doubtful, RB-Alexander-Questionable

PHI-QB-McNabb-Probable, RB-Westbrook Probable


12/02 1:00 PM

353 SF 35½ *

354 CAR -3 under*

CAR-QB-Testaverde-Questionable, QB-Carr-Probable

CAR-WR-Smith-Questionable


12/02 4:15 PM

355 TB 42 under*

356 NO -3 ***

TB-QB-Garcia-Questionable (may be limited)

TB-RB-Pittman-Questionable


12/02 4:05 PM

357 CLE 51½ under*

358 ARI -1 *


12/02 4:05 PM

359 DEN -3.5 ****

360 OAK 42 under**

DEN-RB-Young-Probable, RB-Henry-Questionable


12/02 4:15 PM

361 NYG -2.5 under*

362 CHI 42½ *

NYG-RB-Jacobs-Questionable

CHI-RB-Benson-OUT


12/02 8:15 PM

363 CIN 46½ *******

364 PIT -7 over***

PIT-WR-Holmes-Questionable


12/03 8:30 PM

365 NE -20.5 ***

366 BAL 50½ under***

week 12 results

game 1 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 2 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 3 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 4 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 5 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 7 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (OAK, RDO)

game 8 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (CLE, HFU)

game 9 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (MIN, RDO)

game 11 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 12 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (TB, HFU)

game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (SF, RDO)

game 14 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 15 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 16 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0


ATS weekly:
ATS 16-16 side 8-8 total 8-8


ATS for the year:
ATS 181-158-13 sides 92-75-1 totals 90-83-4

Week 12 picks - late

11/22 12:30 PM
103 GB -3 ****** overall ATS 8-1-1 on the road spread 22,7,6,11 div spread 7,7,34
104 DET 47 over* @home ATS 3-1-1 spread 3,10,7,37,6 div spread 3,10,9
GB-RB-Grant-Questionable

11/22 4:15 PM
105 NYJ 47½ over* vs NFCEast O/U 2-1 ATS 1-2 spread 11,7,3 on the road spread 7,3,11,7
106 DAL -14.5 **** vs AFCEast O/U 3-0 ATS 1-2 spread 17,1,21 @home spread 10,28,21,10,5
NYJ-WR-Coles-Doubtful

11/22 8:15 PM
107 IND -12 ****** vs NFCSouth ATS 3-0 spread 31,19,24 on the road ATS 2-3 spread 2,6,22,24,2
108 ATL 41 under*** vs AFCSouth ATS 3-0 spread 6,10,7 @home ATS 2-3 LWLWL? spread 7,10,21,4,24IND-WR-Harrison-Doubtful, WR-Gonzalez-Questionable

11/25 4:15 PM
199 DEN 41 * UPSET?
200 CHI -2.5 over* ATS D/F 7-3 AD/HF 6-2
DEN-RB-Henry-Questionable
CHI-WR-Berrian-Questionable, QB-Griese-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
201 TEN -2 under*
202 CIN 47 * turnaround game?
CIN-WR-Houshmandzadeh-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
203 BUF 36 under* ATS R/H 2-7-1
204 JAC -7.5 ******
BUF-RB-Lynch-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
205 OAK 34½ under***** AD/HF 7-2 (should lose SU, but win ATS???)
206 KC -5.5 * AD/HF 6-1-1
KC-RB-Johnson-Doubtful

11/25 1:00 PM
207 HOU 51 * UPSET?????
208 CLE -3 over***
HOU-RB-Green-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
209 SEA -3 ***
210 STL 45 under**
SEA-RB-Alexander-Questionable, QB-Hasselbeck-Probable

11/25 1:00 PM
211 MIN 41 under***** on the road spread 3,3,3,10,34 totals 37,23,65,38,34 will lose SU and should ATS
212 NYG -7 ********** @home spread 22,13,11,18,11 totals 48,19,59,48,51
MIN-RB-Peterson-OUT
NYG-RB-Jacobs-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
213 NO -3 under*****
214 CAR 41 *
CAR-WR-Smith-Questionable

11/25 1:00 PM
215 WAS 38 ****
216 TB -3 over*
WAS-WR-Thrash-Questionable

11/25 4:05 PM
217 SF 38 under*
218 ARI -10.5 ***

11/25 4:15 PM
219 BAL 38½ over* on the road spread 7,14,2,5,31 totals 47,40,16,33,45
220 SD -9.5 * ATS R/H 2-8 @home spread 11,14,14,25,2 totals 17,46,42,45,44

11/25 8:15 PM
221 PHI 51 over*
222 NE -23 ****** vs NFC East spread 21,45 @home 24,31,17,45, O/U 8-2
PHI-QB-McNabb-Questionable

11/26 8:30 PM
223 MIA 41 ******
224 PIT -16 under****
PIT-WR-Holmes-Questionable

week 11 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 2 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 3 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (MIN, HFO)

game 4 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 5 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 7 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 8 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 9 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (NE, RFO)

game 10 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 11 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 12 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 13 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 14 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 15 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 16 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1


ATS weekly:

ATS 18-14 side 12-4 total 6-10


ATS for the year:

ATS 165-142-13 sides 84-67-1 totals 81-75-4

week 11 picks

11/18 1:00 PM
403 SD 40½ under
404 JAC -3 ***
JAC-QB-Garrard-ProbableSD-WR-Jackson-Questionable

11/18 1:00 PM
405 KC 41½ ***
406 IND -14.5 under****
KC-RB-Johnson-OUT; QB-Huard-Probable, QB-Croyle-Expected to
start
IND-WR-Harrison Out, WR-Gonzalez-Doubtful, TE-Clark-Probable,
DE-Freeney-OUT for season

11/18 1:00 PM
407 OAK 35½ **
408 MIN -4.5 under*****
OAK-QB-McCown-Doubtful, QB-Culpepper-Expected to start
MIN-QBs-Jackson-Probable, Holcomb-QuestionableMIN-RB-Peterson-OUT

11/18 1:00 PM
409 CLE -2.5 ***
410 BAL 43½ under*
BAL-TE-Heap-(very) Doubtful, QB-Boller-Expected to start

11/18 4:05 PM
411 PIT -9 **
412 NYJ 41 under***

11/18 1:00 PM
413 TB -3 *****
414 ATL 36 under*
TB RB''s-Pittman and Graham both Probable
ATL-QB-Leftwich-Probable (expected to start)

11/18 1:00 PM
415 ARI 48½ *
416 CIN -3 under****

11/18 1:00 PM
417 MIA 40½ under*
418 PHI -9.5 ****
MIA-QB-John Beck-Expected to start for Miami
PHI-RB-Westbrook-Probable

11/18 8:15 PM
419 NE -16.5 under*
420 BUF 46½ ***
NE-WR-Walker-Questionable

11/18 4:15 PM
421 WAS 47 *
422 DAL -11 under***
WAS-WR-Thrash-OUT; WR-Moss-Probable
WAS-S-Taylor-OUT

11/18 1:00 PM
423 NO 50 over***
424 HOU -1 *
NO-RB-Bush-Probable
HOU-QB-Schaub-Probable, WR-A. Johnson-Expected to return
HOU-RB-Green-OUT; RB-Dayne-exp. to start

11/18 1:00 PM
425 CAR 37½ under***
426 GB -10 ***
CAR-QB-Carr-Probable but will not start; WR-Smith-Out
CAR-QB-Testaverde-Expected to start

11/18 1:00 PM
427 NYG -2.5 ****
428 DET 48 under*
NYG-RB-Ward-OUT; WR-Burress-Probable

11/18 4:15 PM
429 STL -3 *****
430 SF 39½ under*
SF-QB-Smith-Probable to play but NOT expected to start;
QB-Dilfer-exp. to startSTL-WR-Bruce-Probable

11/18 4:15 PM
431 CHI 38 over****
432 SEA -6 ***
CHI-QB-Griese-Questionable, QB-Grossman-Expected to startSEA-RB-Alexander-OUT

11/19 8:30 PM
433 TEN 38 ****
434 DEN -2 under*
DEN-RB-Henry-Probable (but suspension still looming)DEN-WR-Walker-OUT

week 10 results

game 1 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ouch JAC RDO)
game 2 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ohhh DEN RDO)
game 3 ATS 1-0-1 side 0-0-1 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 5 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (oops STL RDO)
game 6 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 7 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 9 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 10 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 11 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (DAL, RFO)
game 12 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (ARI, HFO)
game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (SD, HDU,)

game 14 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

ATS weekly:ATS 12-15-1 side 5-8-1 total 7-7

ATS for the year:ATS 147-128-13 sides 72-63-1 totals 75-65-4

week 10 trends

5GUs = 5 Game Under streak
3GOs = 3 Game Over streak

SEA U+6 7-1 SEA+6 5-2-1 favSU 6-2
STLCoB U+6 7-1 opp+6 8-0 favSU 6-2
ARI ARI+6 7-1 opp+6 5-1-2 O/U+6 5-3 D/F 6-1-1
SF opp+6 8-0 U+6 6-2 favSU 7-1

NO O/U+6 7-1 (6mids) , (4GNO+6s)
CAR U+6 6-2 (5GUs) R/H 7-1
ATL U+6 7-1 opp+6 7-1 ATL+6 6-2 favSU 7-1
TBbye


MIN MIN+6 7-0-1 U+6 6-2
GB GB+6 7-1 D/F 6-1-1 favSU 2-6
DET DET+6 6-2 R/H 2-5-1
CHICoB opp+6 6-2 D/F 7-1 favSU 2-6 6Gs

WAS U+6 6-2 (3GOs) opp+6 6-2
NYGCoB NYG+6 6-2 O-6 6-2
PHI U+6 6-2 opp+6 6-1-1
DAL O-6 7-1 DAL+6 6-2

OAK D/F 7-1 OAK+6 6-2
KC O-6 lwlwlwlw? opp+6 6-2 U+6 6-2
SD O-6 7-1 opp+6 6-2
DEN oppATS 7-1 opp+6 7-1 O/U-+6 6-2


TEN TEN+6 8-0 O/U 1-7 U+6 7-1 D/F 6-1-1
HOUbye
JAC R/H 6-2
IND ATS 6-2 IND+6 8-0 U+6 6-2 (4GUs) R/H 2-6 favSU 7-1

PIT ATS 6-2 PIT+6 6-2 favSU 6-2
BAL ATS 1-7 opp+6 7-1 O-6 6-2 R/H 2-6
CLE O-6 8-0 O/U 7-0-1 ATS 6-2 CLE+6 7-1
CIN opp+6 8-0 O-6 6-1-1 ATS 2-5-1

NEbye
NYJbye
MIACoB opp+6 7-1 favSU 7-1 O-6 6-1-1 ATS 2-4-2
BUF U+6 7-1 R/H 1-7 ATS 6-2 BUF+6 6-2 (5GBUF+6s) D/F 6-2

week 10 picks

11/11 1:00 PM
207 Jac 35 under*
208 Ten -4 ***
JAC-QB-Garrard-Questionable, K-Scobee-Questionable

11/11 1:00 PM
209 Den 37½ under*
210 KC -3 ******
DEN-QB-Cutler-Probable; RB-Henry-Questionable
KC-RB-Johnson-OUT

11/11 1:00 PM
211 Buf -3 ****
212 Mia 41 CoB under****
BUF-QB-Edwards-Questionable, QB-Losman-Expected to start
MIA-RB-Brown-OUT

11/11 1:00 PM
213 Cle 47½ O/U 7-0-1 ***
214 Pit -9.5 over*****
PIT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable

11/11 1:00 PM
215 STL 46 CoB under***
216 NO -11.5 *******
STL-RB-Jackson-Probable

11/11 1:00 PM
217 Atl 36½ *
218 Car -4 under***
CAR-QBs-Testaverde-Expected to start, Carr-Questionable

11/11 1:00 PM
219 Phi 38 over**
220 Was -3 ***

11/11 1:00 PM
221 Min 40½ ****
222 GB -6 under**
MN-QBs-Jackson-Doubtful, Holcomb-Questionable

11/11 4:05 PM
223 Cin 44 ***
224 Bal -4 over
CIN-WR-C. Johnson-Questionable, WR-Henry-Eligible to return
BAL-TE-Heap-Questionable, RB-McGahee-Questionable

11/11 4:15 PM
225 Chi -3.5 CoB *
226 Oak 38 under***

11/11 4:15 PM
227 Dal -1 under***
228 NYG 49 CoB *
DAL-DT-T. Johnson-Eligible to return

11/11 4:15 PM
229 Det 44½ *******
230 Ari -1.5 under*

11/11 8:15 PM
231 Ind -3.5 ***
232 SD 48½ under*
IND-WRs-Harrison, Gonzalez-Questionable
IND-S-Sanders-Probable
SD-CB-Jammer-Questionable

11/12 8:30 PM
233 SF 39½ under*
234 SEA -10 *******
SF-RB-Gore-Probable
SEA-RB-Alexander, WR-Branch, TE-Pollard-All Questionable

week 9 results

game 1 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (WAS just didn't play as well and NYJ exceeded my expectations w/QB Clemens - maybe a play on team??)
game 2 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (should have been an under, but a combined 35 pt 4th Quarter???)
game 3 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 5 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 6 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (JAC started out well but fizzled in the end)
game 7 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 8 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 9 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (SD O ???, D tired in the end and poor tackling)
game 10 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 11 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (officiating????)
game 12 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 13 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 14 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

ATS weekly:
ATS 13-15 side 8-6 total 5-9

ATS for the year:
ATS 135-113-12 sides 67-55-8 totals 68-58-4

Best Bets: 2-0

week 9 picks

CoB=coming off bye, GiB=going into bye

11/04 1:00 PM
403 WAS -3.5 ***
404 NYJ 35½ GiB under**
NYJ-QB-Clemens-Expected to start

11/04 1:00 PM
405 GB 37½ under** (both D's are playing well, could go either way, middler?)
406 KC -2.5 CoB **
GB-RB-Wynn-OUT

11/04 1:00 PM
407 ARI 37½ CoB under*
408 TB -3.5 GiB **
TB-WR-Clayton-Questionable

11/04 1:00 PM
409 CAR 35½ under* (really tough to pick, will QB Carr do well? if yes DO, if no FU)
410 TEN -4 *
CAR-QB-Testaverde-Questionable, QB-Carr-Probable
TEN-RB-Brown-Questionable

11/04 1:00 PM
411 SF 37 over****
412 ATL -3 CoB *
SF-RB-Gore-Questionable, QB-Smith-Probable
ATL-TE-Crumpler-Questionable

11/04 1:00 PM
413 JAC 40 ***
414 NO -3.5 under***
JAC-QB-Garrard-Doubtful
NO-RB-Bush-Probable

11/04 1:00 PM
415 DEN 46 under
416 DET -3 ***
DEN-RB-Henry-Questionable

11/04 1:00 PM
417 CIN -1 under****
418 BUF 43½ *
CIN-RB-R. Johnson-Probable
BUF-QB-Edwards-Questionable, QB-Losman-Expected to start

11/04 1:00 PM
419 SD -7 ***
420 MIN 41 under*
MN-QB-Holcomb-Doubtful, Jackson-Probable

11/04 4:05 PM
421 SEA 46½ CoB over*****
422 CLE -1 ***
SEA-WR-Hackett-Questionable

11/04 4:15 PM
423 NE -6 GiB ***
424 IND 57 over*
NE-TE-Watson-Questionable
IND-WR-Harrison-Probable, more inj'd
note: I just expect NE to use more 3 WR sets due to TE inj's and this means IND safety's should be in for a long game even if IND plays more nickel (note: CB M Jackson inj'd) . I expect NE LB's to be the difference in this game, either scoring or setting up score.

11/04 4:15 PM
425 HOU 42 GiB under*****
426 OAK -3 ***
HOU-QB-Schaub-Doubtful, WR-Johnson-Questionable
HOU-RB-Green-Questionable

11/04 8:15 PM
427 DAL -3 CoB ***
428 PHI 46½ over**

11/05 8:30 PM
431 BAL 36½ CoB under*
432 PIT -9 **
BAL-QB-McNair, TE-Heap-both Probable

Week 8 results

game 1 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 2 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (again surprised by CHI, 2nd week in a row)
game 3 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (much wetter than I thought it would be)
game 5 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 7 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 9 ATS 1-0-1 side 1-0 total 0-0-1
game 10 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (surprised by high total score)
game 11 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (just over total)
game 12 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (another high total)

sunday ATS 16-7-1 side 10-2 total 6-5-1

game 13 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

ATS weekly:
ATS 18-7-1 side 11-2 total 7-5-1

ATS for the year:
ATS 122-98-12 sides 59-49-8 totals 63-49-4

Best Bets: 2-2-1

week 8 picks

10/28 1:00 PM
203 CLE -3 *****
204 STL 45 over*
CLE-RB-Lewis-Questionable
STL-RB-Jackson-Probable, too many inj's

10/28 1:00 PM
205 DET 45½ over****
206 CHI -5 *
CHI - DL not playing well (-5 not so sure, +5 is inviting)

10/28 1:00 PM
207 IND -7 *
208 CAR 44½ under*
IND-WR-Harrison-Doubtful
CAR-QB-Testaverde to start
CAR-RB-Foster-Probable

10/28 1:00 PM
209 NYG -9.5 *****
210 MIA 48 under****
at Wembley Stadium, London, England
NYG-RB-Ward-Doubtful
MIA-RB-Brown-OUT for season

10/28 1:00 PM
211 OAK 40½ *
212 TEN -7 under*******
TEN-QB-Young-Probable

10/28 1:00 PM
213 PHI -1 *
214 MIN 37½ under***
MIN-QB-Jackson-Doubtful, QB Holcomb starts

10/28 1:00 PM
215 PIT -3.5 ***
216 CIN 48 under*
CIN-RB-R. Johnson-Doubtful, lucky last week?

10/28 4:05 PM
217 BUF 37½ *
218 NYJ -3 under*****

10/28 4:05 PM
219 HOU 45 under*****
220 SD -9.5 *
SD - after Southern Cal Fire's, emo game? large spread (2 score)
HOU-QB-Schaub-Probable, WR-Johnson-Doubtful, OL played awful LW

10/28 4:05 PM
221 JAC 33 **
222 TB -4 under****
JAC-QB-Garrard-OUT, RB-Jones-Drew-Probable, QB Gray starts

10/28 4:15 PM
223 NO -2.5 ****
224 SF 40½ under*
SF-QB-Smith-Probable, RB-Gore-Probable

10/28 4:15 PM
225 WAS -16.5 under**********
226 NE 47½ * will D get score?

10/29 8:30 PM
229 GB 42½ ****
230 DEN -3 under
DEN-RB-Henry-Questionable

week 7 results

game 1 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1

game 2 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 3 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 4 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

game 5 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1

game 6 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 7 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (surprised by DET, running game better, handled TB D well)

game 8 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1

game 9 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1

game 10 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 11 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

game 12 ATS 0-1-1 side 0-1 total 0-0-1

game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 (surprised, but this appears to be emo game for DEN)


sunday ATS 10-15-1 side 4-9 total 6-6-1


game 14 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

ATS weekly:

ATS 12-15-1 side 5-9 total 7-6-1

ATS for the year:

ATS 104-91-11 sides 48-47-8 totals 56-44-3

week 7 picks

10/21 1:00 PM
405 Ari 36 under*****
406 Was -8 ***
AZ-QB-Rattay-Expected to start, WR-Boldin-Probable

10/21 1:00 PM
407 Atl 42½ under*
408 NO -7.5 **
ATL-QB-Leftwich-Expected to start

10/21 1:00 PM
409 Bal -3 under*
410 Buf 35 *
BAL-QB-McNair-OUT, TE-Heap-Doubtful
BUF-QB-Losman-Available, QB-Edwards-Expected to start

10/21 4:15 PM
411 Min 46 under*
412 Dal -9.5 *
DAL-QB-Romo-Probable

10/21 1:00 PM
413 NE -16.5 under********
414 Mia 51½ **
NE-RB-Maroney-Probable, RB-Morris-OUT
NE-TE-Watson-Questionable
MIA-WR-Chambers-Traded to San Diego

10/21 1:00 PM
415 SF 39½ under*
416 NYG -9.5 ****
SF-QB-Dilfer-Expected to start, TE-Davis-Probable
NYG-RB-Ward-Probable

10/21 1:00 PM
417 TB 44½ *
418 Det -2 under*

10/21 1:00 PM
419 Ten 38 under*
420 Hou -3 **
TN-QB-Young-Questionable
HOU-WR-Johnson-Questionable
Young in # - HOU PK / 39.5
Young out # - HOU -3 / 38

10/21 4:05 PM
421 KC 37½ *
422 Oak -2.5 over****
KC-WR-Kennison-Questionable, RB-Holmes-May return

10/21 4:05 PM
423 NYJ 47 *
424 Cin -6 over******
CIN-RB-R. Johnson-Doubtful

10/21 4:15 PM
425 Chi 42 under*
426 Phi -5.5 **

10/21 4:15 PM
427 STL 39 *
428 Sea -8.5 under*****
STL-QB-Bulger-Expected to start, WR-Bruce-Probable, RB-Jackson-OUT
STL-WR-Bennett-Doubtful
SEA-WR-Branch-OUT, WR-Hackett-Questionable

10/21 8:15 PM
429 Pit -4 *
430 Den 39 under*****
PIT-WR-Holmes-Probable, WR-Ward-Probable
LB-Polamalu-Probable, NT-Hampton-Probable
DEN-WR-Walker-OUT

10/22 8:30 PM
433 Ind -3 *
434 Jac 45 under*
IND-WR-Harrison-Probable, RB-Addai-Probable

week 6 results

game 1 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 2 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 3 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 5 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 7 ATS 1-0-1 side 0-0-1 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 1-0-1 side 0-0-1 total 1-0
game 9 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 10 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 11 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 12 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 13 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

ATS weekly:
ATS 13-11-2 side 6-5-2 total 7-6

ATS for the year:
ATS 92-76-10 sides 43-38-8 totals 49-38-2

TEN, CHI & DAL all lost ATS (lucky last week)

week 6 picks

NFL WEEK 6 (BYE: BUF, DEN, DET, IND, PIT, SF)
CoB = Coming off bye week
GiB = Going into bye week

10/14 207 CIN -3 CoB * ATS,R/H 1-2-1 F/D 2-1-1 O/U 2-2 O/U+6 3-0-1 opp+6 4-0
10:00a 208 KC 42 under ATS,F/D 2-2-1 O/U 1-4 R/H 3-1-1 opp+6 4-1

10/14 209 HOU 37.5 under ATS,O/U 3-2 R/H 2-3 F/D 1-4 HOU+6,O+6 4-1
10:00a 210 JAC -6.5 *** ATS 2-2 R/H 4-0 F/D,O/U 1-3 JAC+6 3-1 U+6 4-0

10/14 211 MIA 45 over* ATS 1-2-2 O+6pt 4-0-1
10:00a 212 CLE -4.5 GiB ** O/U 4-0-1 ATS 3-2 ATS+6pt 4-1

10/14 213 MIN 37.5 CoB under** ATS,R/H 1-1-2 F/D 2-0-2 O/U 1-3 MIN+6,U+6 4-0
10:00a 214 CHI -5 * ATS,F/D 1-4 O/U,R/H 3-2

10/14 215 PHI -3.5 CoB * ATS,F/D,O/U,R/H 1-3
10:00a 216 NYJ 42 under*** ATS 1-3-1 OUOUO? O+6 4-0-1

10/14 217 STL 37 * ATS,O/U 1-4 R/H,F/D 2-3 opp+6 5-0
10:00a 218 BAL -9.5 under ATS 0-5 F/D 1-4 R/H 2-3 O/U 2-2-1 opp+6 5-0

10/14 219 TEN 37.5 under* ATS,R/H 3-1 O/U,F/D 0-4 TEN+6,U+6 4-0
10:00a 220 TB -3 * ATS,F/D 3-2 R/H 1-4 O/U 2-3 U+6 5-0

10/14 221 WAS 40.5 under ATS 2-1-1 O/U 0-3-1 R/H,F/D 1-2-1 U+6 4-0
10:00a 222 GB -3 * GiB ATS,O/U 4-1 F/D 1-4 R/H 3-2

10/14 223 CAR 40.5 GiB ** ATS 3-2 R/H 5-0 F/D 1-4 O/U 2-3 opp+6 3-1-1
1:05p 224 ARI -5.5 under ATS 3-1-1 F/D 0-4-1 R/H 1-3-1 O/U 2-3 ARI+6 4-0-1

10/14 225 NE -6 *** ATS,F/D 5-0 R/H 0-5 O/U 4-1
1:15p 226 DAL 52.5 under*** ATS,O/U 4-1 R/H 2-3 F/D 3-2 O/U+6 5-0

10/14 227 OAK 44 CoB * ATS 2-2 ADOx4
1:15p 228 SD -10 GiB over* ATS,F/D,R/H 2-3 O/U 4-1

10/14 229 NO 43 under**** ATS 0-4 O/U,F/D 1-3 R/H 2-2 U+6 4-0
5:15p 230 SEA -6.5 * ATS 2-2-1 O/U 0-5 F/D 3-1-1 R/H 1-3-1

10/15 233 NYG -3.5 * ATS 3-2 F/D 2-3 O/U 3-1-1 NYG+6,O+6 4-1
5:30p 234 ATL 44 under ATS,R/H 3-2 O/U,F/D 2-3 U+6 4-1

week 5 results

game 1 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 2 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 3 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 4 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 5 ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
game 6 ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
game 7 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 8 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 9 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 10 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 11 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
game 12 ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0


game 13 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1
game 14 ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1

Road/Home 6-8 Fav/Dog 8-6

weekly ATS:

overall ATS 14-14 side 5-9 totals 9-5

for the year 79-65-8 sides 37-33-6 totals 42-32-2

TEN, CHI & DAL won despite TO's/poor play

week 5 picks

CoB = Coming off bye week
GiB = Going into bye week

10/07 407 CAR 44 under** R/H 4-0 F/D 1-3 ATS,O/U 2-2 spread 14,13,7,13
10:00a 408 NO -3.5 * CoB ATS 0-3 R/H,O/U,F/D 1-2 spread 31,17,17
CAR QB Carr to start

10/07 409 JAC -2.5 under**** CoB ATS 1-2 ADx2 O/U 1-2 spread 3,6,9
10:00a 410 KC 36.5 **** O/U 1-3 ATS 2-1-1 AD/HF 2-1-1 spread 17,10,3,14

10/07 411 DET 46 ** GiB O/U 3-1 ATS 2-1-1 (DO or FU)
10:00a 412 WAS -3.5 under(o) CoB ADx2-0-1 O/U 0-2-1 spread 3,8,7
either FU or DO

10/07 413 ATL 41 under R/H,O/U,F/D 2-2 spread 21,6,7,10
10:00a 414 TEN -8 ****** CoB DUx3 ATS 3-0 R/H 2-1 spread 3,2,17

10/07 415 MIA 43 *** ATS 0-2-2 O/U 3-1 F/D 1-1-2 R/H 2-0-2 spread 3,17,3,18
10:00a 416 HOU -5.5 over*(u) ATS,O/U 3-1 R/H,F/D 1-3 spread 17,13,6,10
game may go under total, due to HOU O inj's

10/07 417 SEA 40 ** O/U 0-4 ATS,R/H,F/D 2-1-1 spread 14,3,3,20 +6pt 3-0-1
10:00a 418 PIT -6 under* GiB R/H 1-3 F/D 3-1 O/U 2-2 spread 27,23,21,7
note: dominant DT's both teams are inj'd will they play?

10/07 419 CLE 48.5 over*** ATS 3-1 F/D 1-3 R/H 2-2 spread 27,6,2,14
10:00a 420 NE -16.5 ** ATS,F/D 4-0 O/U 3-1 R/H 2-2 spread 24,24,31,21
will NE be motivated? wins SU yes but spread???

10/07 421 ARI -4 ****** ATS 3-0-1 F/D,O/U 0-3-1 R/H 2-1-1 spread 3,3,3,7
10:00a 422 STL 40.5 under**** ATS 0-4 O/U 0-4 ADx2, HFx2
STL QB Ferrotte tp start, multiple inj's (O&D)

10/07 423 NYJ 41 over* (u) ATS,F/D 1-2-1 R/H 2-1-1 O/U 2-2 spread 24,7,3,3
10:00a 424 NYG -3.5 **** F/D 1-3 ATS 2-2 O/U 2-1-1 spread 10,22,7,13
NYJ D suspect and OL gives up to many sacks

10/07 425 TB 45 **(o) ATS 3-1 R/H 1-3 O/U 1-3 spread 14,17,21,13
1:05p 426 IND -9.5 under(*) GiB R/H 0-4 ATS,O/U,F/D 2-2 spread 31,2,6,18
IND w/o S Sanders can they win? TB cover 2 D should keep game close, shorter

10/07 427 SD 43 * R/H 1-3 O/U 3-1 ATS 1-3 spread 11,24,7,14
1:15p 428 DEN -.5 over*** GiB ATS 0-4 O/U 3-1 F/D 1-3 spread 1,3,9,18
(is this the start the new season or win the next quarter/game mantra? for SD)

10/07 429 BAL -3.5 under* ATS 0-4 O/U 2-1-1 F/D 1-3 R/H 2-2 spread 7,7,3,14
1:15p 430 SF 35.5 * GiB O/U 1-3 R/H 2-1-1 ATS,F/D 1-2-1 spread 3,1,21,20
SF QB Dilfer to start (either DU or FO)

10/07 431 CHI 41 under(o) ATS 0-3 F/D 1-3 spread 11,10,24,10
5:15p 432 GB -3.5 ****** ATS 4-0 F/D 1-3 O/U 3-1 spread 3,22,7,7
CHI multiple D inj's

10/08 435 DAL -10.5 ****** F/D 3-1 O/U 3-1 ATS 4-0 spread 10,17,24,28
5:30p 436 BUF 45 under**** GiB ATS 2-2 R/H 0-4 O/U 1-3 spread 1,23,31,3
BUF multiple O&D inj's

week 4 results

game 1 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0

game 2 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0

game 3 1-0-1 side 1-0 totals 0-0-1

game 4 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

game 5 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

game 6 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

game 7 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

game 8 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1 should've known and picked under

game 9 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0

game 10 0-2 side 0-1 totals 0-1 true upset, PIT did have key injs during game w/NT Hampton and S Polamalu inj'd

game 11 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1 hmmm SD D???

game 12 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1 high total...

game 13 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0 should have paid attention w/o RB Westbrook PHI is miserable ATS, Going into bye 4th yr in a row under total



game 14 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0


weekly ATS:

overall 18-9-1, sides 9-5, totals 9-4-1


for the year 65-51-8 sides 32-24-6 totals 33-27-2



best bets 6-2, first 5 perfect but upsets and I believe I highlighted wrong game ...sigh



not bad week, though work did have me limiting time to reviewing match-ups



notes: Only OAK QB Culpepper & BUF QB Edwards won as subs for starters - team depth is good, especially for BUF considering D started a lot of subs (compared to wk 1 starters)

week 4 picks

09/30 1:00 PM
205 Oakland 41 over***** ADOx3
206 Miami -4 ****
OAK-QB-McCown-Questionable

09/30 1:00 PM
207 Houston -3 * ATS 3-0 *** Many O inj's, chance being upset
208 Atlanta 39 over
HOU-RB-Green-Questionable; WR-Johnson-Doubtful; RB-Dayne-Questionable C-out WR/KR/PR Jacoby out

09/30 1:00 PM
209 Baltimore -4.5 over***** ATS 0-3
210 Cleveland 40 **** O/U 3-0
BAL-QB-McNair-Probable, TE-Heap-Questionable

09/30 1:00 PM
211 Chicago -3 over ATS 0-3
212 Detroit 44.5 upset?*** w/o CB Vasher, Det can pick on that side of field good chance of upset
Multiple Defensive injuries CHI-QB-Griese starts
DET-WR-C. Johnson-Questionable

09/30 1:00 PM
213 Green Bay -2 .*** *** dog 3-0
214 Minnesota 38 under O/U 0-3
MIN-QB-Holcomb to Start, WR-Taylor to start

09/30 1:00 PM
215 St. Louis 46 under
216 Dallas -13 ********* ATS 3-0 O/U 3-0
STL-WR-Bruce-Questionable; RB-Jackson OUT

09/30 1:00 PM
217 NYJ -3.5 UNDER*
218 Buffalo 37 upset?* home 3-0 lots of D inj's are to believe in upset or under
BUF-QB-Losman-OUT, QB-Trent Edwards to start

09/30 4:05 PM
219 Tampa Bay 39 *** *** home 3-0
220 Carolina -2.5 over*** road 3-0 w/o QB Delhomme doubtful to win
CAR-QB-Delhomme-Questionable

09/30 4:05 PM
221 Seattle -2 .0*** under**** O/U 0-3
222 San Fran. 41 *
SF-RB-Gore-Questionable, TE-Davis-OUT

09/30 4:15 PM
223 Pittsburgh -6.5 * **** ATS 3-0
224 Arizona 41.5 over
PIT-WR-Ward-Questionable
ARZ-WR-Boldin-Probable, QB-Leinart-Expected to start

09/30 4:15 PM
225 Kansas City 39 *** O/U 0-3
226 San Diego -12 under****** home 3-0
KC-QB-Huard-Probable

09/30 4:15 PM
227 Denver 46 under ATS 0-3 numerous inj's
228 Indianapolis -10 ******* home 3-0
DEN-QB-Cutler-Questionable

09/30 8:15 PM
229 Phila. -2.5 ******* GIB O/U 0-3
230 NYG 47 under*
PHI-RB-Westbrook-Questionable
NYG-RB-Jacobs-OUT; WR-Burress-Probable

10/01 8:30 PM
231 New England -7.5 ***** FOx3 ATS 3-0
232 Cincinnati 53.5 under w/o RB how can they get lead and control clock?
CIN-RB-Johnson-Out

week 3 results

game 1 0-2 side 0-1 totals 0-1
game 2 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1
game 3 1-0-1 side 0-0-1 totals 1-0
game 4 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0
game 5 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1
game 6 0-1-1 side 0-0-1 totals 0-1
game 7 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1
game 8 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1
game 9 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0


overall 8-8-2 side 5-2-2 totals 3-6

O/U 7-2 Home/Road 6-1-2 fav/dogs 4-3-2



game 10 0-2 side 0-1 totals 0-1
game 11 0-1-1 side 0-0-1 totals 0-1
game 12 1-1 side 0-1 totals 1-0
game 13 1-1 side 1-0 totals 0-1
game 14 0-1-1 side 0-1 totals 0-0-1


overall 2-6-2 sides 1-3-1 totals 1-3-1


O/U 3-1-1, Home/Road 0-4-1, fav/dogs 1-3-1


game 15 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

O/U 1-0 Home/Road 0-1 fav/dogs 0-1

game 16 2-0 side 1-0 totals 1-0

O/U 0-1 Home/Road 0-1 fav/dogs 0-1


SNF/MNF results 4-0, sides 2-0 totals 2-0


weekly ATS:
overall 14-14-4, sides 8-5-3, totals 6-9-1

for the year 47-42-7 sides 23-19-6 totals 24-23-1


who won $:
O/U 11-4-1, Home/Road 6-7-3, fav/dogs 5-8-3
so overs were really strong this week, a slight edge to road teams and dogs did very well again

as for me:
best bets 1-2 ouch

week 3 picks

09/23 10:00a
397 IND -6.5 ** home & under 2-0
398 HOU 47 under* - hard to take HOU w/o #1 WR 2-0 ATS

09/23 10:00a
399 SD -5.5 under** home/fav 2-0
400 GB 43 * D plays really well 2-0 ATS, dog 2-0

09/23 10:00a
401 MIN 33.5 *running game should keep this close, under 2-0
402 KC -3 under*** under 2-0

09/23 10:00a
403 DET 44 **
404 PHI -5.5 over*** will WR's play well? home & dog 2-0, PHI 0-2 ATS

09/23 10:00a
405 BUF 41 under** Home team & under covers 2-0
406 NE -16.5 * just enough to cover? fav & over ATS 2-0

09/23 10:00a
407 MIA 35.5 ** fav SU 2-0
408 NYJ -3 under* away team ATS 2-0 fav 2-0 SU

09/23 10:00a
409 SF 38 under* w/o LB Lawson will see if D steps up, under 2-0
410 PIT -9.5 ** 2-0 ATS

09/23 10:00a
411 ARI 35.5 *** pts are a premium here, under 2-0
412 BAL -7.5 under* 0-2 ATS

09/23 10:00a
413 STL 38.5 under* w/o LT O Pace, ADU 2-0, STL 0-2
414 TB -4 ** vs another dome team, home 2-0

09/23 1:05p
415 JAC 35.5 under* ADU covers 2-0
416 DEN -3.5 * will win SU, not so sure about cover 0-2 ATS

09/23 1:05p
417 CIN 50 * scoring well * what about D? home & over 2-0
418 SEA -3 over**** home and under 2-0

09/23 1:05p
419 CLE 41 over*** over 2-0
420 OAK -3 * ADO 2-0

09/23 1:15p
421 CAR -4 ** away & dog 2-0
422 ATL 37 under, under 2-0

09/23 1:15p
423 NYG 41 under* too many inj's 0-2 ATS, over 2-0
424 WAS -3.5 *** under 2-0

09/23 5:15p
425 DAL 41 **** take pts w/O doing well fav & over 2-0
426 CHI -3 over* under 2-0, CHI ATS 0-2

09/24 5:30p
427 TEN 45.5 * dog & under, 2-0, TEN 2-0 ATS
428 NO -4 under*** 0-2 ATS, home 2-0


a money line parlay too include GB, DAL, WAS and maybe ARI would pay $$$
(I thought about adding CLE but that's a wait and see, DET is a stron one as well)

week 2 results

game 1 2-0, side 1-0 total 1-0

game 2 0-2, side 0-1 total 0-1

game 3 2-0, side 1-0 total 1-0

game 4 0-2, side 0-1 total 0-1

game 5 2-0, side 1-0 total 1-0

game 6 2-0, side 1-0 total 1-0

game 7 1-1, side 0-1 total 1-0

game 8 1-1, side 0-1 total 1-0

game 9 0-1-1, side 0-0-1 total 0-1

game 10 1-1, side 1-0 total 0-1

game 11 0-2, side 0-1 total 0-1

game 12 1-1, side 0-1 total 1-0

game 13 1-1, side 1-0 total 0-1

game 14 0-2, side 0-1 total 0-1

game 15 0-2, side 0-1 total 0-1

game 16 2-0, side 1-0 total 1-0


best bet 1-1

weekly ATS 15-16-1, sides 7-8-1 totals 8-8

for the year 33-28-3 sides 15-14-3 totals 18-14

if you had bet on:
dogs were 12-3-1

Week 2 picks '07

this is early due to prior commitment

09/16 1:00 PM

201 Buff 38 Under

202 Pitt -9.5 ***

BUFF (TE) Everett OUT, 3 Defensive starters out; (LB) -Wire, (S)-Simpson, (CB)-Webster


09/16 1:00 PM

203 Cincinnati -7 ****

204 Cleveland 42 under

(QB) Anderson-Expected to start


09/16 1:00 PM

205 Ind -7 under - note: IND should win SU, just not ATS

206 Ten 46 ****


09/16 1:00 PM

207 Houston 38 U

208 Carolina -6.5 ***


09/16 1:00 PM

209 San Fran. 44.5 *

210 St. Louis -3 under

STL-OT-Pace OUT


09/16 1:00 PM

211 Green Bay 37.5 **

212 NYG -1 over

GB (WR) Jennings-Questionable

NYG (QB) Manning Questionable, (RB) Jacobs OUT


09/16 1:00 PM

213 Atlanta 34.5 under

214 Jacksonville -10.5 **

JAC (K) Scobee Questionable


09/16 1:00 PM

215 New Orleans -3.5 ***

216 Tampa Bay 42 over

TB-QB-Garcia-Probable, RB-Williams-Questionable, CB-Kelly-Questionable


09/16 4:05 PM

217 Minnesota 42 over

218 Detroit -3 *

MIN (RB) Taylor Questionable


09/16 4:05 PM

219 Dallas -3.5 ***

220 Miami 40 under

DAL (WR) Glenn Doubtful


09/16 4:05 PM

221 Seattle -3 **

222 Arizona 44.5 over


09/16 4:15 PM

223 NYJ 34 under

224 Bal -11 *

NYJ-QB-Pennington Doubtful

BAL (LB) Lewis Questionable, (QB) McNair Questionable


09/16 4:15 PM

225 Oakland 39 ***

226 Denver -9.5 under, DEN should win SU, just not ATS


09/16 4:15 PM

227 Kansas City 34.5 over

228 Chicago -12.5 *

KC-WR-Kennison Questionable


09/16 8:15 PM

229 San Diego 47 *

230 New England -3.5 under, this could be a great 6pt middler


09/17 8:30 PM

231 Wash 40 *

232 Phil -7 under, another possible 6pt middler


SU money line parlay
202 PIT
203 CIN
215 NO
219 DAL
and maybe 214 JAC, maybe 208 CAR

I'd add 228 CHI but their's no ML due to large spread

favorite 2 picker
sides:
202 PIT
203 CIN

totals:
213/214 ATL @JAC under 34.5
221/222 SEA @ARI over 45
maybe 209/210 SF @STL under 45

Week 1 Results

Game 1, 0-2, side 0-1, total 0-1 NO just couldn't keep it closer

Game 2, 2-0, side 1-0, total 1-0

Game 3, 2-0, side 1-0, total 1-0

Game 4, 1-1, side 1-0, total 0-1

Game 5, 2-0, side 1-0, total 1-0

Game 6, 1-1, side 0-1, total 1-0 - now why did I take STL? I did know that CAR has been beating STL for several yrs :-(

Game 7, 1-1, side 1-0, total 0-1

Game 8, 1-1, side 0-1, total 1-0

Game 9, 1-0-1, side 0-0-1, total 1-0

Game 10, 1-1, side 0-1, total 1-0

Game 11, 2-0, side 1-0, total 1-0

Game 12, 1-1, side 1-0, total 0-1

Game 13, 0-2, side 0-1, total 0-1 surprised by OAK inability in 1st half

Game 14, 2-0, side 1-0, total 1-0

Game 15, 0-2, side 0-1, total 0-1 - BAL D played well, O didn't show up for game.... CIN D played better than expected

Game 16, 1-0-1, side 0-0-1, total 1-0





Total ATS, 18-12-2

side, 8-6-2 totals, 10-6



if you had just bet on -

unders 11-5

home teams 9-5-2

favorites 9-5-2

NFL week 1

301 NO +5.5, over 53, I just expect NO to play keep away and run the ball more and IND to be efficient on offense, total maybe a bit high, but it's the opener and both QB's have been highly efficient in preseason.

406 HOU -3, under 38*** this may be a bit of a stretch, but w/KC having to rebuild their OL I just don't expect them to be as good and to continue their OL slide which began w/their OL retiring etc a couple of years ago

408 BUF +3.5, under 37 , hard to go against DEN, but it's the opener, the general consensus it BUF isn't good enough to beat DEN, but I'm taking a chance and I say BUF will win outright

409 PIT -4.5****, under 37, spread should be -14.5

411 TEN +6.5, under 37.5, JAC is at home, but they lost @TEN last year and I think TEN has "their number"

414 STL -1****, under 42 should be -10, CAR O is suspect and their D will wilt in the 4th qtr

416 GB +3, over 43.5**, this game I could be wrong w/the youth in GB failing to defend their home turf as PHI is among the top 3 teams in NFC

417 ATL +3, under 36*** I just don't expect MIN O to score and unless their D get's a pair of scores they won't win

420 WAS -3**, under 35 though D is good for MIA, just like the above team, I can't see their O scoring

422 NYJ +6.5, over 41 I expect a close game so taking the pts is the prudent thing

424 SEA -6***, under 41.5 the calls will begin for Gruden to lose his job w/this loss as SEA should demolish TB in their home opener

426 SD -6, over 42.5** I just don't trust CHI QB on the road

427 OAK -1.5, under 40*** , another one that's tuff to pick on a side

430 DAL -6, over 44*** tough to go against NYG since they are 2-0 (or 1-0-1)ATS last year vs DAL and w/CB Newman nursing a foot inj, I'd pick on that side, but I don't believe Strahan will play and 3-12 SU record w/Strahan really is hard to ignore

431 BAL +3****, under 40.5 CIN OL is the real question and I don't expect them to be able to stop the best D in the AFC (I call BAL D the best because they have the weakest O of all the teams w/a chance to make the playoffs)

433 ARI +3, under 45, should be interesting I could have gone the other way w/SF, I just think SF is farther away from making playoffs than ARI

8/30 - 31 picks last week preseason

08/30 7:00 PM
101 BUF 37½ DRx3 cameo appearances, mostly QB T Edwards
102 DET -3 Ox3 same here - I expect to see QB JT O'Sullivan
BUF & under*

08/30 7:30 PM
103 NYG 36 Rx3
104 NE -3½ will work on running game Rx3
NYG* & under

08/30 7:30 PM
105 NYJ 36 O+6
106 PHI -2½ O+6,U+6 note: they'll see each other in week 6
PHI* & under

08/30 7:30 PM
107 WAS 35 outage last wk 2nd,3rd more?WAS+6,Ux3
108 JAC -3½ JAC+6
JAC & under*

08/30 8:00 PM
109 CLE 37
110 CHI -4 Ox3
CHI & over*

08/30 8:00 PM
111 DAL 37 Hx3
112 MIN -2
MIN & under

08/30 8:00 PM
113 GB 37
114 TEN -7 starters into 3rd, open positions RB,MLB,WR#2,secondaryx2 RDx3
TEN** & under

08/30 8:00 PM
115 HOU 37 Hou/ODx3
116 TB -3 opp+6
HOU*** & over

08/30 8:00 PM
117 KC 36½ Ux3
118 STL -3 opp+6
KC-RB-Johnson-expected to play (up to) a few series
STL & over**

08/30 8:00 PM
119 PIT 35 starter 1Q?
120 CAR -4
CAR & under**

08/30 8:00 PM
121 MIA -1
122 NO 38 DRx3
MIA* & under

08/30 9:00 PM
123 ARI 39
124 DEN -4 D needs more work, starters into 3rd?
DEN (RB) Henry Doubtful
DEN & under*

08/30 10:00 PM
125 SF 38½ O+6
126 SD -2½ Ox3
SF (RB) Gore Questionable
SD (RB) Tomlinson Doubtful
SF** and over

08/30 10:00 PM
127 OAK 37½ Hx3
128 SEA -2½
OAK*** & over**

08/31 7:30 PM
143 BAL -3½ power outage last wk starters into 2nd, 3rd more?
144 ATL 34
BAL & under**

08/31 7:30 PM
145 IND 40½
146 CIN -5 DOx3
CIN*** & under

D = dog, F = favorite
U = under, O = over
R = road, H = Home
opp = opponent
+6, -6 = teaser line
x3 = 3 game streak

Kirwan's Preseason Sacks

I just read this article "Now's the time to get handle on pass protection" and I wish I had read it earlier, I also would like to review this w/week 3 numbers added. It could use another column, interceptions, would be nice to see and perhaps completion rate as well.

time something I could use more of, but I have less and less of as time passes by ....

Using the numbers the article shows, you could expect better games (more wins?) from Houston, Oakland, Atlanta, Detroit this year and I guess I wouldn't get my hopes up for Buffalo, Carolina, Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, NYG, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, & Washington.

you know I think I figured it out. Go to nfl.com/stats select By Player Category, choose Passing, then click on Team heading and voila, it's sorted by team w/sacks in the 2nd farthest from the right and Attempts just a couple of columns over from Team.

This makes it really interesting as STL QB Bulger has a rating of 51 and 2nd stringer STL QB Frerotte has a rating of 102.4

other hot backup QB's - BUF T Edwards, CLE B Quinn, GB A Rodgers, JAC D Garrad, MIA J Beck, NYJ K Clemens, SD B Volek, SF T Dilfer, TB B Gradkowski, and TEN K Collins

even worse is MIA T Green rated at 47.9

8/25 results - comments, 8/26 picks

winning plays: How I did:

IND & OVER 1-1, side:no, total:yes
TB & OVER 0-2, side:no, total:no
WAS & UNDER 2-0, side:yes, total:yes ***note*** game ended w/power outage
HOU & OVER 1-1, side:no, total:yes
NYJ & UNDER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
SF & OVER 0-2, side:no, total:no
SEA & OVER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
CLE & UNDER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
SD & OVER 2-0, side:yes, total:yes

***vegas I believed returned money on the BAL/WAS game due to the fact the game was not completed normally due to power outage ***

ATS 9-9 sigh 1/2 correct overall, I was a really mystified w/TB/MIA & SF/CHI game

I should've listened to Brent Crow radio Thursday archive @sportsmemo site, but I missed it and wasn't thinkin' of it.

DYK that the Station Casinos allows 6, 6.5, & 7 pt Teasers? Coast Casinos does as well and already has parlay cards out for Preseason action, which doesn't pay as well as off the board, but will have (depending on line/total movement) better numbers on game days.

HOU O appears to be much better, half of HOU D is good, other half well....,
I think Miami O&D will have problems,
I'm wondering about WAS is Gibbs playing possum or will they stink at the beginning just like last year?
ARI has definitely improved on O though run game could improve,
DAL D at times is too aggressive and can be fooled, O sometimes appears to be predictable or is it me?
DEN appears to have D issues and perhaps O as well, though this could be play calling
SD very good though I thought I noticed that when TE Gates appears to linger about 1/2 second in huddle longer than normal, then the play is going to him. I could be wrong there weren't many closeup to ID players, but @field level I wonder if LB's are paying attention and even if they knew could most LB's stop Gates? D is fine, though safety/CB mental lapses do occur. which accounts for ARI QB Leinart getting long pass play completions over the top.
CLE when will QB Brady start?

289 PHI 36
290 PIT -3
PIT*** and under

PHI 36 @ PIT -3

w/PHI U+6 2-0 O+6 2-0 fav 2-0 home 2-0
w/PIT O/U 0-3, U+6 3-0, opp+6 2-1

should be an under game PIT D allowed 7,13,10 pts, fav to win

*******************************************************

CIN -3.5 @ ATL 38

w/CIN opp+6 3-0 ATS, Over-6 2-0
w/ATL opp+6 1-0-1 ATS, O/U-/+6 1-1

should be an over game CIN D gives up 27pts x 2, ATL to prove something?

8/25 picks and comments for 8/24

due to other priorities I was unable to blog my picks for Friday's games. I did watch portions of STL @OAK and TEN @BUF. I believe OAK will be a much better team this year and you could bet on over the total number of wins for the season. STL needs RB S Jackson or they could have been playing much more conservatively, so I'm not sure w/them.
BUF w/o QB Losman or should I say WR L Evans will be in a world of hurt.
TEN is improving despite the loss of veteran players during the off season, though w/their schedule I doubt if they will improve upon their SU W/L record from last year.

8/25 picks

08/25 7:00 PM
271 Det 40 will QB Kitna play?
272 Ind -5
officialy a no pick, DET and Over*

08/25 7:30 PM
273 TB -2 QB Simms to play in 3rd? "clarifying their depth chart"
274 Mia 34 "most vanilla O", 3rd QB Beck "plays well"
Under**** and MIA

08/25 8:00 PM
275 Dal -3 will they blitz or not?
276 Hou 39½ getting better
DAL** & Over

08/25 8:00 PM
277 Bal -3½
278 Was 32 UUU - beat up?
WAS (QB) Campbell Questionable
UNDER**** and WAS

08/25 8:00 PM
279 NYJ -3 QB Clemmens would start on most teams
280 NYG 37
NYG (WR) Burress OUT
NYJ** and over

08/25 8:00 PM
281 SF 37½
282 Chi -6
SF (RB) Gore will not play
CHI* and Under

08/25 9:00 PM
283 Cle 37
284 Den -6 beat up, lotsa inj's
DEN (RB) Henry OUT
DEN and under**** changed my mind CLE and over**

08/25 9:00 PM
285 Min 38
286 Sea -7 QB Hasselbeck starts into 3rd?
SEA and under***

08/25 10:00 PM
287 SD -3
288 Ari 40½ starters to play 1st half?
SD (RB) Tomlinson will not play
SD* and over***

QB Comments

this says it all: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/bucky_brooks/08/23/qb.look/index.html?eref=si_nfl

8/23 pix

08/23 8:00 PM
261 Jac -2½ QB Leftwich plays 1st half, RG Naeole out, OOOver
262 GB 39 health issues, 2nd,3rd qtrs vary combos of players - jobs in the air
FOX
pick JAC and over***


08/23 8:30 PM
263 NO 37½ starters 'til half
264 KC -1½ QB Croyle to start, hmmm game plan?
pick KC** and under

8/19-20 results

1-3 ATS

should have known BAL D is so dominant just playing under total should win some $$$

so CHI motivation as loser of SB and using SB champion IND as measuring stick, really could have been CHI key point, despite QB Grossman experiment, QB Griese did play well

for the year 30-28 ATS

8/19 & 8/20

it's really tough to pick against BAL since they are a very deep team, but here it goes.

08/19 8:00 PM
479 NYG 33½
480 Bal -4
NBC
NYG and over

08/20 8:00 PM
481 Chi 35½
482 Ind -2½
ESPN
IND and under

I know, I know, IND has no incentive and CHI wants to show they can play w/SB champs

but I'm experimenting w/leveling record for both games

8/18 results

whewwww, tough day

comments GB D wow, DEN??? DAL looks good, STL not bad at all

I went 0-fer w/NO @CIN, DEN @DAL, OAK @SF and perfect w/DET @CLE, TB @JAC, & SD @STL

ATS 9-9

for the year ATS 29-25

note:
the leveling record parlay almost hit, except for ARI

and the trend parlay almost missed all except for SD

8/18 picks

08/18 4:00 PM
461 Hou 35 XX
462 Ari -3 short handed on DL and OL, U
pick HOU and Under note: going against leveling out record trend

08/18 7:00 PM
463 Det 35 XXX QB rotation much better,
464 Cle -2½ 3-0 ATS vs DET last 3 yrs preseason O/U 1-2
pick Det and over

08/18 7:30 PM
465 NO 38
466 Cin -3½ xxx 3-0 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
pick CIN and under

08/18 7:30 PM
467 TB 35
468 Jac -4 xxx 3-0 ATS vs TB last 3 yrs preseason O/U 2-1
pick JAC and over

08/18 8:00 PM
469 Pit -1½
470 Was 33
pick PIT and over

08/18 8:00 PM
471 SD -2
472 STL 38 0-3 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
CBS
pick SD and over

08/18 8:00 PM
473 Den 35½ last 5 as dog ATS 4-1
474 Dal -5
pick DEN and U

08/18 8:00 PM
475 Sea 35
476 GB -2½
pick GB and under, though this really should be a no pick game

08/18 10:00 PM
477 Oak 36½ 2-1 ATS vs SF last 3 year 1-2 O/U
478 SF -3½
pick OAK and under note: going against leveling out record trend

if you were to do the leveling record parlay you would pick:
462 ARI -3
463 DET +2.5
465 NO +3.5
471 SD -2
478 SF -3.5

following the trends take:
464 CLE -2.5
466 CIN -3.5
471 SD -2
473 DEN +4.5
477 OAK +3.5

fav totals:
461/462 HOU @ARI over 35.5
467/468 TB @JAC under 34 (note they meet in regular season 10/28 expect vanilla O)
469/470 PIT @WAS under 33
477/478 OAK @SF under 36.5

8/16 & 8/17 results

8/16 ATS 2-0 KC is in for a horrible year...

8/17 ATS 2-4 odd how I put an X next to TEN, but somehow I type NE ... sigh and I guess I should have picked PHI, but I ignored the 1st game back for McNabb factor.
MIN D looked great, though this is 2nd game in a row for NYJ that went over total. NYJ QB Pennington has never had the strongest of arms, but he tended to make smart decisions .... I wonder when we'll see Clemens start? midway thru season?
BUF vanilla O looks pathetic, ATL hmmm O looks like a few fixes and it could be ok.
OL's for both TEN & NE allowed too many QB pressures/sacks

I did notice... that every team (excluding Thursdays participant MIA 2-0 & KC 0-2 and NE 0-1-1) got rid of the goose egg for their ATS record they're all 1-1

as for Over/Under records, notables include CAR, NYJ 2-0, BUF, KC 0-2

for the year ATS 20-16

8/17 picks

08/17 7:00 PM
453 Car 35 over??? O looked good last week @NYG XXX
454 Phi -3 too many inj's?
PHI (QB) McNabb Probable
pick CAR*** and over

08/17 7:00 PM
455 Atl 34 too many inj's? vanilla O
456 Buf -3 UUU
pick Under*** and BUF

08/17 8:00 PM
457 Ten 35 X
458 NE -5½ U
TEN (QB) Young Probable
pick under** and NE

08/17 8:00 PM
459 Min 34½ duds @WR/QB studs everyelse
460 NYJ -4 XXX
NYJ (RB) Jones Questionable
pick NYJ*** and under

8/16 Thursday game

ok I missed posting picks for Monday's games, I would have gotten BAL correct but a push on the total, w/DEN HC Shanahan record for preseason I suppose I would have picked them, though I would have favored under much more.

on to this thursday's game:

08/16 8:00 PM
451 Mia 34½ D front 7stacked,secondary?'s, will QB Green play entire 1st half again? probowl punter? WR/PR/KR Ginn too good to leave off field UUU???
452 KC -3 same Edwards mantra as last week "we want to win, I expect to win"
pick UNDER*** and MIA

8/12 preseason

08/12 8:00 PM
289 Sea 35 U
290 SD -3.5 X

the total has moved a bit toward the under, I wish I had more time to check on QB's
SD has depth at all positions thus earning my pick and I don't expect SEA QB Hasselbeck to play w/QB Wallace to start, but for how long?

SD QB Rivers will start but again for how long? same question w/QB Whitehurst and the others

officially, a no pick, but I'll take SD and the under

8/11 results

ATS 6-8

unexpected GB really did start fast, but PIT was uninterested?

TEN QB Young announced will not play one hour before game and WAS DOESN'T start fast

CHI doesn't appear to be deep

OAK OL plays well in 1st qtr (only game I watched - just 1st qtr and parts 3rd and 4th)
ARI QB Leinart misses WR Fitzgerald on a couple of passes (high)

for the season ATS 16-12

8/11 Saturday preseason picks

I'm on the road again, so I'm a bit late posting my picks -

08/11 7:30 PM
275 GB 35½ -* coach says fast start, QB Rogers qtrs 2&3 QB Ingle Martin qtr 4
276 Pit -6½ O vs another 4-3 D, U? X* blitzburgh
pick PIT*** and over

08/11 7:30 PM
277 Jac -2½ QB Leftwich and Garrad QTRs 1 & 2, which QB's for 3rd/4th? U?
278 Mia 34 4 new ST players, QB Beck throws deep ball well, not much to go on X?
pick MIA and under

08/11 7:30 PM
279 KC 35 X*U* how long will QB Croyle play? Huard is fine, Printers is a project
280 Cle -3 * this should be a no pick game
pick KC and under***

08/11 8:00 PM
281 Was 35½ no fights in TC, more injs, fast start, Campbell, Brunell, Palmer
282 Ten -3 more physical camp, lots of positions open, run game, Young, Collins, Rattay
pick Ten and over***


08/11 8:00 PM
283 Car 35 X* new OC - not enough news
284 NYG -1 X*O* new DC, Manning, Hasselbeck, Lorenzen all looking good
pick NYG*** and over

08/11 8:00 PM
285 Chi -1 U* very good player depth, Grossman, Griese, Orton XXX*
286 Hou 32 X* 1st strng 1st qtr, 2nd strg into 1/2 of 3rd qtr, the rest play whats left, D leads team
pick CHI** and under

08/11 10:00 PM
287 Ari 34½ hmmm Leinart Warner Boyd? Korrodi? no rookies as starters - trust between OL & QB
288 Oak -1½ McCown Walter Culpepper, cut blocking run game U?
pick OAK** and over

8/10 results

ATS 6-2

picked wrong game for over though historically NE and scored a lot in 1st game, NYJ is not playing the same as last preseason, they are now a bet on team IMHO.


for the season ATS 10-4

8/10 Preseason Picks

favored side or total ***

08/10 7:00 PM
267 Atl 33 vanilla O U?
268 NYJ -3½ -*XXX all QB's doing fine
pick NYJ** and under

08/10 7:30 PM
269 NE 33 X*U* ** XX? Over?23-16?
270 TB -3 X*SU XX??
pick NE and over*

08/10 8:00 PM
271 Buf 36 -* motivated but vanilla O, QB Trent Edwards bulk of snaps X
272 NO -6 -*QB Tyler Palko bulk of snaps U***
pick BUF and U***

08/10 8:00 PM
273 StL 35 -*only 2 inj's during TC, deep @RB, QB exp edge XXX***
274 Min -2 X* vanilla O
pick STL*** and U

8/9 results

ATS 2-2

1st game CIN @DET, what I noticed is that QB D Johnson played much longer and was more productive than I thought he would be, thus my picks being totally off instead of Fav/under combo the winning combo was dog/over (CIN D did get a TD and DET D did fairly well)

2nd game IND @DAL, just as predicted, pretty much followed reports from blogs etc. thus 2-0 ATS in this game

for the year ATS 4-2

Thursday 8/9 preseason picks

263 Cin 35 U
264 Det -3 X***

265 Ind 34 U**
266 Dal -5 X

Here's a url for CIN @DET game:
http://www.mlive.com/lions/stories/index.ssf?/stories/lions/20070808chat_transcript.htmlnote: DET new DC says we're setting tone for the season

not much on IND @DAL but I do like this blog:
http://blogs.indystar.com/philb/2007/08/dripping_sweat_with_observatio.html
note: IND QB Navarre was cut

here's one for DAL:
http://www.dallascowboys.com/news.cfm?id=47775BE9-C2AB-87C9-4BCE6FBF0B70AF3F
blitzing D looks like a winner SU, covering -5? well I'd take the chance

historically Dungy's teams in preseason are decidedly uninterested in winning game and the under is even more prevalent
DAL new HC Philips leans slightly to winning ATS and even less toward the over
CIN HC Lewis is nearly the same as DAL coach
DET HC Marinelli was 1-3 SU (2-2)ATS last year and 1-3 O/U

NFL Beat Writers Blogs

I picked up this url http://www.nflbeatwriterblogs.com/ from Football Outsiders

this should help for preseason huh???

HoF results

gee I thought it would rain at least once during the game, but somehow the rain stopped just for the game huh? Anyway my guess was on the $$ and I turned a nice little profit. We'll see if the rest of preseason has more "hidden" jewels.

I guess you can pretty much bet on PIT to cover as their intensity cannot be questioned w/their new coach. Meanwhile NO HC Payton is playing to the same tune as last year. You should be able to pick against them, but the total will be a bit harder unless you have a bead on their opposition, such as w/PIT .

I suspect in this Friday's game for NO that BUF should be favored and for PIT on Saturday they should be favored.

HoF game

261 NO 35.5 U**
262 PIT -2.5 X**

PIT HC is conducting tough 2-a-days, this should translate to a better chance to win this preseason game, covering the spread w/a D that wants the game. QB's look a bit better w/PIT and the drop off is noticeable w/NO.

note: NO in '06 preseason scored 19, 7, 14, 9 and allowed 16, 30, 27, 10 - an indicator that NO HC prefers to play possum in the preseason

This appears to be a 2-picker that will double your $$, of course PIT HC Tomlin could play possum as well, I lean toward the under...

NO blog

http://blog.nola.com/saintsbeat/ you gotta love this blog if you're a Saints fan, now if I could find something similar w/PIT I might have an angle on this Sunday's game.

Well I have found another impressive site to read for NO http://www.saintsreport.com/

Preseason '07 lines

NFL PRESEASON

08/05 261 NO 35½
5:00p 262 PIT -2½

NFL PRESEASON - WEEK 1

Thursday, August 9th

08/09 263 CIN 36½
4:30p 264 DET -1½

08/09 265 IND 36½
5:00p 266 DAL -4½

Friday, August 10th

08/10 267 ATL 33
4:00p 268 NYJ -4

08/10 269 NE 34½
4:30p 270 TB pk

08/10 271 BUF
5:00p 272 NO

08/10 273 STL 36
5:00p 274 MIN -2½

Saturday, August 11th

08/11 275 GB
4:30p 276 PIT

08/11 277 JAC 32½
4:30p 278 MIA -1½

08/11 279 KC 36
4:30p 280 CLE -3

08/11 281 WAS 35½
5:00p 282 TEN -3

08/11 283 CAR 35½
5:00p 284 NYG -1½

08/11 285 CHI -1½
5:00p 286 HOU 33½

08/11 287 ARI 34½
7:00p 288 OAK -1½

Sunday, August 12th

08/12 289 SEA 36½
5:00p 290 SD -3½

Monday, August 13th

08/13 291 PHI 32
4:00p 292 BAL -3

08/13 293 DEN 35
5:00p 294 SF -3

*** The commentators rule this site***

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/05/21/extra-points/5146/

The above link leads to "Sanders not ready to return" as in Bob Sanders IND safety. Even though its over a month old, reading the forum is informative and fun as you can read the opinions and highly insightful views of IND, NE, CHI and other tidbits, that reminds me that this is one of the best sites for NFL football

NFL interesting posts, writeups

Marquee matchup for 2007 - Covers.com
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=138625&t=0

comment: SD has a decided edge w/Ron Rivera (former DC for CHI) when CHI visits SD in week 1. Current spread is SD -6, this could rise to -7.5+ my thinkin' is w/Rivera he'll know the weakness' of CHI O having watched/coached against them for several years as well as weakness' of the CHI D. If SD jumps to an early lead, CHI will most likely sputter.


Saint's sign CB, Colts have more holes
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=137370&t=0

in their week 1 matchup getting 6pts may just be enough to get the cover, though NO does still have a secondary that could be upgraded. IND are the champs and the bulls eye is squarely on their backs. I expect IND to win but not cover...


ATL latest starter sidelined
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=137708&t=0

ATL w/D in trouble even before training camp starts and new O and D schemes to implement will likely have trouble @ MIN



NFL week 1 odds
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=138191&t=0

oops SB XLI

I liked the colt's and the over for the past two weeks, but I forgot to blog the thought. Funny how the rain, timeouts and Coach Dungy killed the total over 48. Props were really interesting, though I must admit I only thought of picking Hester to score the 1st TD ( I picked on TE Dallas Clark ).
The Bear's still have a good team, though they may need to change QB as their nucleus is very good and they are now in year 3 of their 4 year window (some will say year 2). I just thought that they've had a great D that will be just good next year, unless they find a substitute for S Mike Brown.

NO, PHI, and even WAS should be watched next season. I'd have put ARI in the mix, but they changed the coaching staff. I believe DAL and SEA will have down years next season.

My colleague Jimmy had only one loss in the post season (pick'n sides) very very good vs spread.

The AFC is still the best conference and with IND, NE, JAC and CIN should be watched. SD is still another year away. DEN is kinda in between. TEN should get a tougher schedule and may not do as well. NYJ maybe another team to watch, the draft and FA's will tell the tale.

AFC/NFC championship results

ATS WEEKLY post-season
overall 1-3
favored side/total 0-2
best bets 0-1

ATS OVERALL post-season
overall 11-9
favored side/total 5-5
best bets 0-3



whaddayaknow? Jimmy's correct and liked the over as well, though he says the NO@CHI game was much higher than expected

AFC/NFC championships

303 NO 43.5 X
304 CHI -2.5 O

305 NE 48 X
306 IND -3 U


Though I've made my best bet the under for NE@IND I'm not convinced. My colleague Jimmy says to take CHI and IND which is opposite of mine, but he's been right sometimes this year except w/WAS

Division playoff results

ATS WEEKLY post-season
overall 5-3
favored side/total 2-2
best bets 0-1


ATS OVERALL post-season
overall 10-6
favored side/total 5-3
best bets 0-2

Away dog combo won all games

Dogs won outright in AFC, Favorites won, but did not cover in NFC
a money line on my picks would've paid nicely

I picked the AFC perfectly going 2-0 in both games, the NFC had an over when expecting under and as the fav's couldn't cover

Division playoffs

101 IND 41 X
102 BAL -4 U

103 PHI 49 O
104 NO -5 X

105 SEA 37 U
106 CHI -9 X

107 NE 46 X
108 SD -4.5 U

Wildcard results

ATS post-season

overall 5-3
favored side/total 3-1
best bets 0-1


I had tried a parlay card @Cannery and I lost on KC/IND game under 2 ints. I thought maybe KC QB Green might give up 1 int, but IND QB Manning being picked 3x was totally unforseen by me. Sacks were at 5 so that was another loss, but both DAL/SEA & NYJ/NE were under 5 sacks.

Wildcard playoffs

477 KC 51 U
478 IND -7 X
It may be better to take KC ATS, I just expect IND to win SU and cover

479 DAL 47 X
480 SEA -3 U
* hardest game to pick a side as both teams are 1-3 SU in Dec * (perhaps I should pick the under as my favored side/total) But I did notice that SEA has inj's - their nickel back/punt returner is out, CB Trufant is out as well. You might surmize that over the total is a better play. I just think the DAL D will hold down SEA O giving DAL the outright win

483 NYJ 38 X
484 NE -9 O
*** I expect NE to win SU. NYJ has only one loss vs division foes greater than 7 pts ***

485 NYG 46.5 O
486 PHI -6.5 X

end of regular season 2006

Final week 16-16 8-8 2-1 I forgot to post picks
missed one week due to illness

ATS season 2006
overall: 227-216-4
favored side or total: 113-107-7
best bets: 31-30-2