2013 - week 09 - picks

GB 14-1 vs division SU
this week, CHI @GB

 'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-6 SU/ATS
this week STL

 NFC East 4-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, MIN @DAL, SD @WAS, PHI @OAK

 TEAMS w/10 days rest 10-4 SU
TEAMS w/10 days rest 9-5 ATS
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*) 
 L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI] 
* indicates lost ATS 
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week CAR TB

 Teams Going into Bye 9-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 8-12 ATS
W (CAR,MIN,WAS,SD,DEN,NYG,DET*,SF,ARI) 
 L [GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN,JAC] 
* indicates lost ATS 
Teams Going into Bye (GiB)
 this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

 Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU
 W (GB,PIT,ATL,NO,OAK) 
 L [CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA]
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB)
 this week, BAL CHI HOU IND SD TEN

 It's the second half of the season for half of the NFL
It's the final game of the first half of the season for:
MIA BAL PIT HOU TEN IND OAK SD WAS GB CHI MIN NO ATL CAR TB
I'm thinking we should have more tight games this weekend, but last week only 5 games were less than 10 pt difference 8 games were decided by 10 or more pts

11/03 1:00 PM
401 ATL 43½ OVER
402 CAR -7½ ****

ATL on the road couldn't handle ARI, so vs a div rival @home...
10Dr CAR



11/03 1:00 PM
403 MIN 47½ *UNDER?
404 DAL -10½ ****

DAL O having issues, but take pts???



11/03 1:00 PM
405 NO -6 ***
406 NYJ 45½ over

GiB NYJ
NYJ alternating WL, this game W?
NYJ banged up



11/03 1:00 PM
407 TEN -3 ***UNDER***
408 STL 39½ **

CoB TEN
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 2)
this game should be close w/stifling D's



11/03 1:00 PM
409 KC -3 *
410 BUF 40½ under

KC run D??
GiB KC
BUF QB Tuel starts? QB Flynn starts?
KC loss LY 17-35 @BUF



11/03 1:00 PM
411 SD -1 *
412 WAS 51 under

if SD D forces WAS O to pass, it'll be a long day for WAS
CoB SD



11/03 4:05 PM
413 PHI 45 *UNDER*
414 OAK -2½ *

PHI QB Foles starts
PHI QB Foles getting split reps w/Barkley
Split reps not a good sign for any team



11/03 4:05 PM
415 TB 40 *UNDER
416 SEA -16 *

10Dr TB
SEA 6 days rest
really thought about taking pts



11/03 4:25 PM
417 BAL -2½ under?
418 CLE 41 *

CoB BAL
GiB CLE
CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 2)



11/03 4:25 PM
419 PIT 44 UNDER
420 NE -6½ *

PIT OL shuffle, LT,LG,RG M*A*S*H unit
GiB NE



11/03 8:30 PM
421 IND -2½ *UNDER*
422 HOU 45 *

CoB IND
CoB HOU
IND WR#1 ?
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 2)
HOU QB Keenum another tough start (1st @KC)



11/04 8:40 PM
423 CHI 49½ under?
424 GB -11 ***

CoB CHI
CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 1) 

2013 - week 09 - Thursday pick

10/31 8:25 PM
303 CIN -2½ *****
304 MIA 42½ under 

MIA RT J Martin - has left the team
if MIA O couldn't handle NE D, CIN D is so much better
CIN MLB Maualuga OUT
CIN doesn't play as well on the road, but MIA plays worse at home
MIA won LY 17-13 @CIN

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

The biggest mover is NYG up +6% from last week, PHI also had a big move, but it was down -5%

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

2013 - week 08 - results

DAL @DET, Q1 and what strikes me is 'how can DAL win?' w/their first 4 drives ending in punts, then their D turns it up and keeps them in the game, but in the end DAL D could not stop DET O. DET O continued to move the ball throughout the game. DAL O sputtered for the most part and when they really need a first down to keep the ball and kill time to end the game. DAL could not, they left DET w/62 sec on the clock and what a finish for DET.

MIA @NE, a tale of two halves in the first half MIA did all the right things and led 17-3 at the half, but in the second half, they could do nothing right giving up turnovers and sacks to close out the game. It seemed to me that NE D blitzing really bothered Tannehill and company. It was as to me that MIA was ill prepared for constant blitzing. If Tannehill had a hot read for the blitz or a screen, it just did not happen during the 2nd Half and NE pressed their advantage, until they got the lead and kept it. Just one other thing of note. The batting the ball penalty on MIA DT/DE Vernon was a bad call by refs, and gave outstanding field position, which led to NE scoring a TD and MIA then seemed to be in 'panic' mode. I say panic because they didn't run the ball.

WAS @DEN, somewhat interesting, but I fell asleep, I guess I couldn't see how WAS O would be able to move the ball consistently.

GB @MIN, MIN gets a ST TD, but later GB returns the favor, though this was a division game, MIN did not play as well (or with a greater emotional uplift at home) as I thought they could, count them as toast for the rest of the season.

NYJ, ATL, and DAL all lost on the road after winning vs division foes (NYJ beat NE, ATL beat TB, DAL beat PHI) last week


This week I ended up just above .500 ATS and just below .500 for totals.

KC won SU but did not cover ATS, this bodes well for CLE

CIN blows out NYJ in a big surprise to me. I really thought it would be a much closer game. The biggest surprise was ATL collapse on the road at ARI. ARI QB Palmer had a much more conservative game and thus had only one int (instead of the normal 2 - either 2ints or an int and a fumble for so many games).

I should've stuck w/my original pick of DEN/Over... sigh

Lost in the SEA D winning their game on the road @STL is the fact that STL D played very well and their O just the opposite.

2013 - week 08 - results

Recent post by Sports Reference

NFL Team Records vs. Each Division Since 2002

Nice stuff to review, a few teams are known for dominating and being dominated

The W:L ratio for a few are 3:1 (or 1:3) and theirs also a few at 2:1 (or 1:2), but many have only a slight advantage.

Of course, these are just for SU, but this could be useful for money line bets, especially with a parlay.

2013 - week 08 - picks

Trends:
'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 0-6 SU/ATS
this week ARI

NFC East 4-12 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, DAL @DET, WAS @DEN

TEAMS w/10 days rest 8-4 ATS/SU
 W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG) 
 L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI] 
this week SEA ARI

Teams Going into Bye 4-10 ATS/SU 
W(CAR,MIN,WAS,SD) 
L[GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN]
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) JAC, DEN, NYG, DET, SF, ARI

Teams Coming Off Bye 3-5 ATS/SU
 W(GB,PIT,ATL) 
 L (CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA) 
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) NO, OAK

10/27 1:00 PM
209 SF -16½ *
210 JAC 41 under

@Wembly Stadium, London, England
JAC HC Bradley disappointed in lack of effort for last weeks game vs SD
10/21 update: JAC HC Bradley has left team due to fathers passing away
JAC interim HC DB coach DeWayne Walker
GiB JAC
GiB SF

JAC got 28pts vs DEN and they covered, so why pick against them?

SF D, they are the reason and this game is essentially another road game for JAC so no home crowd, not that they get that much of an advantage at home.

On the road and in another country I think we'll see SF have more fans than JAC.

BTW I picked JAC to cover when they were getting 28pts (see week 6)

10/27 1:00 PM
211 DAL 51 *
212 DET -3 OVER

GiB DET
DET OL injuries


10/27 1:00 PM
213 NYG 53 *
214 PHI -6 under

GiB NYG
PHI QB Vick?
series split?


10/27 1:00 PM
215 CLE 39½ ***UNDER***
216 KC -7 *****

CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 1)
CLE QB Carousel
This should be -17½


10/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 50½ *
218 NO -12½ *UNDER

NO TE Graham starts?
CoB NO
this might be the most interesting game of the week
due to BUF HC Marrone (xNO OC 06-08)


10/27 1:00 PM
219 MIA 45½ *
220 NE -6½ *under

MIA OL shuffle? new LT, old LT->RT?
can NE cover? I expect MIA to lose due to errors
10/25 update: changed pick from MIA/OVER to MIA/UNDER


10/27 4:05 PM
221 NYJ 41 *
222 CIN -6½ *under*

NYJ just not as good/lucky on the road, but...
CIN CB Hall IR OFY


10/27 4:05 PM
223 PIT -3 *under?
224 OAK 40½ *

CoB OAK
This game could go over. ST play for both PIT and OAK are both down this year.


10/27 4:25 PM
225 WAS 58½ *
226 DEN -13 ***OVER***

WAS FS Meriweather OUT
WAS SS Doughty out?
GiB DEN
10/24 update: changed pick from DEN/OVER to WAS/OVER


10/27 4:25 PM
227 ATL 45 ******
228 ARI -2½ **over**

GiB ARI
ATL bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half
TO's will kill ARI chances



10/27 8:30 PM
229 GB -9½ *
230 MIN 46½ under

MIN QB Ponder returns (after 4 weeks)
MIN QB Carousel
MIN desperate moves @QB, but team isn't playing desperate


10/28 8:40 PM
231 SEA -10½ *
232 STL 42½ under

SEA FB Robinson returns
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 1)

2013 - week 08 - Thursday picks

10/24 8:25 PM
103 CAR -6½ *
104 TB 40 under

TB QB Glennon 4th start (preseason game 4)

CAR is getting a lot more national media attention. I do think they'll win, but will they cover?

One motivating factor for CAR will be last year's losses to TB. TB swept CAR LY as they had their 'number'.

What's different this year? TB QB and secondary as well as CAR D. I give an edge to CAR in this year's draft. TB's one saving grace is their ability to find vet's. I think CAR younger players from the past drafts are coming around and this game maybe a statement game for CAR. A win on the road against a hated division rival.

10/23 update: betting against TB in the 2nd half, seems to be a very good angle as they've scored only 1 TD in the second half.

2013 - GRID - "new" - efficiency - week 08

2013 - GRID - week 08 - efficiency

I've been trying out another GRID ranking for a couple of weeks and the above essentially takes Offense scoring efficiency (as a percentage) subtracted from Defense scoring efficiency. That gap between Offense and Defense appears to be a very good indicator of a teams strength.

You'll notice above that their are 13 teams above 0%, which means the majority of NFL teams (19) are below 0%. This seems to be how good/bad NFL teams are this year (well at least for this week, now I'm thinking I wish I had tracked this from week 1).

The division with the greatest parity appears to be the AFC North where an 8% gap exists between the top (CIN) and bottom (CLE) teams. The division with the greatest disparity (33%) is the AFC South and NFC South.

This GRID ranking is an accumulative ranking mean the whole season counts, not just a couple of weeks.

Eleven teams (or slightly more than 1/3 of NFL teams) are between +4% and -4%. There are ten teams above +4% and eleven teams below -4%.

I guess this is somewhat of a better GRID, though I think CAR maybe a bit high.

The strongest division appears to be in the AFC west. The weakest (IMO), the AFC North and NFC East, though an argument could be made for other divisions as well (AFC South w/JAC is a doozy).

2013 - week 07 - results

SEA @ARI, did not watch due to other commitment

DAL @PHI, expected much more offense, got much more defense or more woeful O, PHI O is in a continual decline from season opener

NE @NYJ, interesting game to watch, FG in OT wins game on little known rule change that penalized NE. Though through much of the game, NE could not control either OL or DL, NYJ did just enough to pull out the home win.

HOU @KC, excellent D by KC, HOU isn't shabby either, KC did about as well as expected. HOU QB Keenum looked good often getting 10+yds per completion. Hopefully next game, Kubiak and company will give him more leeway in changing the play. KC waited until Q4 to unleash blitzes that HOU could not counter. Really smart strategy by KC.

DEN @IND, 'homecoming' for Manning seemed more of an announcement that this IND team is firmly in the grasp of Luck and Co. Funny how IND CB Vontae Davis erroneously says he prep'd for Brady (s/b Manning) at the end of the game (during interview). The RB's for both teams fumbled, SD timing of fumble was much worse and may have cost DEN the game. One thing I noticed IND really played DEN WR Welker very well and the numbers also show that as well. IND 2ndary isn't too bad, though they did have injuries during the game, their m2m D really stymied Manning, that and the physical coverage that the officials allowed in this game.

I did really well ATS this weekend and ok for totals (above .500)

The games that I missed badly (losses ATS and total):

STL @CAR - STL had been playing better the prior two games, I was thinking they would keep game closer, but losing QB Bradford  as well as their composure during the game really hurt them

MIN @NYG - I haven't watched yet, but the stats don't lie, MIN QB Freeman had an awful game, you would think w/two weeks to prepare that he would've done better. NYG did have several players come back off of injury list - most notably C Baas. NYG QB Manning had 0 interceptions which is a big plus, considering that the offense was a turnover machine for the past 6 weeks

2013 - week 07 - results

2013 - week 07 - picks

NFC East 2-12 SU vs non-division opponents

TEAMS w/10 days rest 7-3 ATS/SU W(BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL) L[PHI,BUF,CLE]
this week NYG CHI

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) CHI, HOU, SD, TEN
Teams Going into Bye 3-7 ATS/SU W(CAR,MIN,WAS) L[GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) ATL, MIA
Teams Coming Off Bye 2-4 ATS/SU W(GB,PIT) L (CAR,MIN,WAS,TB)

10/20 1:00 PM
397 NE -4 under
398 NYJ 43½ **

NE LB Mayo OUT -key- player, team leader, D communicator
another FG game?
I expect NYJ to run the ball more and play keep away from NE Brady and Co.



10/20 1:00 PM
399 SD -7½ ***
400 JAC 45 UNDER

GiB SD



10/20 4:25 PM
401 HOU 40½ UNDER
402 KC -6½ ***

GiB HOU



10/20 1:00 PM
403 CIN 47½ *
404 DET -3 UNDER

I don't think DET can just use WR Johnson as a decoy and expect to win



10/20 1:00 PM
405 BUF 42 *
406 MIA -8½ *OVER*

BUF QB Lewis 2nd start (preseason game 2)
CoB MIA
+8pts is a lot when both teams have a D and BUF likes to run
This season between both teams:
only one game has ended w/a total less than 43pts
MIA D not as good as last season
BUF D appears to be a step up from last season



10/20 1:00 PM
407 CHI 50½ *
408 WAS -1½ over

GiB CHI
10 Day rest CHI
WAS STx2 IR OFY
WAS LS 2nd yr



10/20 1:00 PM
409 DAL 56½ ***
410 PHI -3 OVER

PHI QB Foles 2nd start (preseason game 2)



10/20 1:00 PM
411 STL 42 *
412 CAR -6 *UNDER

CAR big expectations after another blowout win
"fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, ..."



10/20 1:00 PM
413 TB 42½ ovER?
414 ATL -7 **

TB QB Glennon 3rd start (preseason game 3)
CoB ATL



10/20 4:05 PM
415 SF -4 *
416 TEN 39½ ***UNDER***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick 3rd start (preseason game 3)
GiB TEN
*** stellar D's ***
TEN O in dink/dunk mode, QB Fitzpatrick inaccurate
I'm wondering if SF will cover
TEN O limit TOs and this game will be close
10/17 update: TEN new C starts

10/17 update: TEN new MLB starts
10/17 update: changed pick from TEN/U to SF/U


10/20 4:25 PM
417 CLE 46 under
418 GB -10 *

GB 3/4 of LB's 'new'



10/20 4:25 PM
419 BAL 40½ under
420 PIT -1½ *

bitter rivals, PIT needs win more



10/20 8:30 PM
421 DEN -6½ ***UNDER***
422 IND 56½ *

DEN DE Von Miller returns
DEN RT?



10/21 8:40 PM
423 MIN 47 *
424 NYG -3 *OVER*

MIN QB Freeman starts
11 Day rest NYG
So much for MIN early bye, total seems to be easier to predict
both teams have given up at least 27pts each game this season.
If you can guess who'll win the first half, then you'll win the game
I'm thinking MIN D will win TO battle

2013 - week 07 - Thursday picks

10/17 8:25 PM
303 SEA -6½ *
304 ARI 40½ over

ARI is average at best, SEA is above average at least
ARI DE Campbell out

For ARI to win a lot will have to go 'right' for them The number one thing is TOs (int's/fumbles) by ARI QB Palmer. It just doesn't seem as if he'll keep below two TOs a game. So SEA will win, will they cover on the road?

ARI will most likely start @DE either Ta'amu or Rucker (I'd go w/Ta'amu). ARI D has allowed TE's to play like star's this year, but will SEA Willson burst out into the limelight of TNF? I don't think SEA TE needs to be a star with SEA QB Wilson playing very well (distributing the ball) and SEA has a run game.

As for the total, it may go over as ARI will likely have TO's that SEA will use to score, TDs? FGs? I'm thinking 24-17 and fav/over combo (which the books really don't like to happen), but as it stands the numbers appear to be weak. FWIW I'd post -7.5 and 46.5

GRID - 2013 - week 07

GRID - 2013 - week 07

I'm really conflicted w/CAR and NE is a bit too high IMO as I think they've reached their ceiling for the season.

CAR has played w/the most conflicting of results and 'style'. Just when they seem to have got it together with a dominating home win vs NYG, the next game they lay a huge egg with a loss on the road to ARI after a bye week. Isn't 2 weeks enough time to get ready? Then the next week they seem to get lucky on the road w/another big win at MIN, yes it could be MIN as a team was distracted by the tragic loss of MIN RB Peterson's 2yr old son, so timing could be a factor.

CAR also had that week 2 game @BUF where they should have won, but loss. So far this season they have been an UP then DOWN team. Alternating this cycle each week, though W-L sequence is L L W L W, they play SEA very well in the opening game of the season. If CAR holds to form, this coming weekend, they'll lose inexplicably at home to STL .

So far this season, the GRID sorta works, but I may need to make a blob for the middle teams.
There's the good to great - 4 teams
the average team - 16 teams
the bad teams - 8 teams
and the really bad teams - 4 teams
Maybe a blob or mismash would be much better, but it might not be so easy to represent on a spreadsheet.

GB probably needs to be higher and CHI lower, but I'll wait for the season to progress, before making a change.

DET is also another 'maddening' team this year, playing to different halves during games, being penalty prone, and having a talent level that seems to be unfilled.

2013 - week 06 - results

NYG @CHI, NYG QB Manning just an awful start, though he did get better, but the damage was done, NYG played w/heart, but CHI played w/much more confidence, though this could be a costly win w/LBx2 inj'd.

GB @BAL, it's very unfortunate for GB to lose 2 of their top 3 WR to injuries during the game. A hidden factor is PR/KR (Cobb - looks like right knee). Will return game hold up? WR James Jones was their #1 WR IMO. DL's for both teams are playing well. The big issue appears to be play calling for BAL. If the run isn't working look for the other stuff (dink, dunk game). Why? O' Why? did BAL go for it on 4th down, just tie the game w/a FG. BAL QB Flacco to WR's are out of sync.

PIT @NYJ, I thought NYJ miscues (penalties) would be their undoing. NYJ DL is playing very well, on O they do get some plays, making for close drives that start to bog down once they cross the 50. You would think they could get into FG range. NYJ OL is also holding up fairly well. Again play calling or having that  'go to' guy seems to be missing from their offense. PIT has the lead at the half, but it's close, clearly NYJ is on the rise, but PIT experience seems to be holding them off, enough to get the rare road win.

NO @NE, a bit unusual as NO play calling wasn't up to snuff, it was as if they second guess'd themselves into a loss. A game that NE QB Brady snatched from the jaws of defeat. Lucky in some ways especially w/NO D getting two stops in the last two minutes, only to be one upped by NE D which made NO O go 3-and-out twice in the same span.


So I ended up below .500 ATS and right at .500 for totals (due to push). The lucky teams on the road last week (ARI and IND) lost on the road this weekend. I think the tragic end of MIN RB Peterson 2yr old son did affect him as well as the team. BUF QB Lewis came up big in Q4, though prior to rally, CIN led 24-10.
DET WR Johnson did play, though was mostly a decoy IMO and why did CLE continue to use a safety/CB combo to cover in the 2nd half? I'd say NE was lucky at home, perhaps they'll be unlucky next week.

2013 - week 06 - results

I also noticed (belatedly) that the AFC South all lost 0-4 SU, but were 2-2 ATS

2013 - week 06 - picks

NFC East 1-11 SU vs non-division opponents

TEAMS w/10 days rest 7-1 ATS/SU W(BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL) L[PHI]
this week BUF, CLE

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) NO, OAK
Teams Going into Bye 3-5 ATS/SU W(CAR, MIN, WAS) L[GB, PIT, TB, MIA, ATL]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) MIN, WAS, PIT, TB
Teams Coming Off Bye 1-1 ATS/SU W(GB) L (CAR)

10/13 1:00 PM
203 OAK 40½ under?
204 KC -9 *

a domination game?


10/13 1:00 PM
205 PHI -1½ ****
206 TB 46 under

PHI QB Foles 1st start (preseason game 1)
TB QB Glennon 2nd start (preseason game 2)
PHI can run between 20's, passing w/QB Vick was average @best
PHI QB Foles isn't a runner, we'll need to see RZ passing improve
PHI D should have a decent game, perhaps much better than prior 5
TB will need to rely on run O and D to win.
If game is tight in Q4 than the QB that makes an error first will likely lose.
I'm just thinking PHI will score at least get several(4?) FGs
I'm unsure if TB can score more than 3 times, (9-21pts? 13-17 most likely?) 
10/11 update: changed pick to four star **** from two star **



10/13 1:00 PM
207 GB -3 under?
208 BAL 48½ *

GB has yet to win on the road this year
GB LB Matthews OUT


10/13 1:00 PM
209 DET -3 under?
210 CLE 45½ *

with DET it's simple if Megatron plays the whole game they win, if not they lose
CLE QB Weeden starts


10/13 1:00 PM
211 CAR 44 under
212 MIN -2½ *

CAR has yet to win on the road this year
MIN QB Cassell starts


10/13 1:00 PM
213 STL 43 *
214 HOU -7½ over

get well game for HOU?
HOU TE Daniels OUT


10/13 1:00 PM
215 PIT 41 *
216 NYJ -2½ over

PIT D needs to play better to win


10/13 1:00 PM
217 CIN -7½ ***
218 BUF 41½ under

BUF QB Lewis starts (preseason game 1)


10/13 4:05 PM
219 TEN 40½ under
220 SEA -13½ *

TEN QB Fitzgerald 2nd start (preseason game 2)


10/13 4:05 PM
221 JAC 54 **
222 DEN -27½ **UNDER**

JAC players know how to play vs DEN QB Manning, see yrs vs IND
JAC new LT


10/13 4:25 PM
223 ARI 41½ *?
224 SF -11 under

ARI no run game, but they can pass, ARI D good


10/13 4:25 PM
225 NO 50 *****
226 NE -2½ over

NE getting alot of respect IMO from oddsmakers


10/13 8:30 PM
227 WAS 54 over
228 DAL -5½ *

no real reason why to give up pts


10/14 8:40 PM
229 IND -1½ ***
230 SD 50 *under

MNF normally a high scoring affair

Gruden comment on SD "They're in trouble I believe"

2013 - week 06 - Thursday picks

10/10 8:25 PM
101 NYG 47 over
102 CHI -8 *

NYG should still be 0-fer, but can CHI cover?

This isn't much of a game to watch, since NYG is 0-fer, NYG hasn't scored much on the road since game @DEN (other road games at CAR and KC, just 0 and 7 pts scored). So perhaps under the total might be better. It's just that @home CHI has given up 21, 30, and 26pts this year. So I'm thinking NYG will get at least 14pts which means if CHI scores 34pts then the over will win. (NYG has allowed at least 31pts each game this season).

2013 - week 5 - results

BUF @CLE, great start for BUF, poor play on ST, O and D by CLE. 2nd drive for CLE and QB Hoyer is injured (Rknee). QB Weeden subs somehow CLE gets their running O to go. Q3 BUF QB Manuel is injured (Rknee), BUF QB Tuel subs, continuing the drive BUF scores a TD and takes a 24-17 lead. So with the battle of the backup QB going on, who would have thought the total would go way OVER 41.5? 24-37  = 61 total pts. Great finish by CLE. In the post interview, you hear from QB Weeden that he had no reps for the past two weeks, so this really explains the slow start. If you followed the game coverage via nfl.com the well respected analysts did pan Weeden for his lack of speed in processing coverage and quickly throwing the ball to the correct receiver on time. But if you did notice, Weeden improved during the game, which could also be attributed to play calling as well. A heavy dose of McGahee was part of the winning formula, along w/ST and D that played better after a slow start. This team is among the 3 youngest in the NFL, they appear to have lots of room for growth. Tuel time was not to be.

NE @CIN, Q4 rain deluge from the heavens ends NE, a defensive battle from the start. CIN does finally have some big plays in 2nd half and found a way to win, a young team growing. NE is the old warrior, that's trying to re-tool in season.

NO @CHI, not much of a game, NO D dominates and NO O finds enough answers to consistently score. CHI O couldn't find answers and their D played tough w/o DT Melton.

BAL @MIA, Q4 look-in, just confirms BAL DL controls MIA OL.


DET @GB, DET WR C Johnson out, but they had him listed as questionable (knee) so DET played the game w/o WR #1 and #2, If I had known I would never pick DET. Really disappointing for me, I need a more reliable source of information on who starts

DEN @DAL, except for the one punt by DAL, just like Arena football, teams score or give up the ball on a turnover or downs. DAL played far better than I thought they would on O. DEN O is just amazing to watch.


HOU @SF, HOU QB Schaub... has an interception returned for a TD for four consecutive game a dubious record? HOU O can move the ball on the ground and their D is fierce, but SF trampled them, bigger OL, smarter D


2nd Quarter of the season has begun and it looks like for week 5 I'll be at .500 ATS and below .500 for weekly totals.
Note: I had errors for season totals with weeks 3 and 4, this has been corrected for week 5 and is highlighted.

2013 - week 05 - results

2013 - week 05 - picks

NFC East 1-10 SU vs non-division opponents

TEAMS w/10 days rest 5-1 ATS/SU W(BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC) L[PHI] this week SF, STL

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) ATL, MIA
Teams Going into Bye 3-3 ATS/SU W(CAR, MIN, WAS) L[GB, PIT, TB]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) CAR, GB

10/06 1:00 PM
413 KC -3 ***
414 TEN 39 ***UNDER***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick starts, 
(Pre Season Game 1)
TEN 4-0 vs HC Reid


10/06 1:00 PM
415 BAL 43½ under
416 MIA -3 *

BAL LT Monroe starts? (acquired via trade w/JAC)
BAL WR Jones returns?
MIA GiB


10/06 1:00 PM
417 JAC 42 over?
418 STL -11½ *?

JAC OL shuffle @LT and RT
JAC WR Blackmon returns
STL 10 days rest
STL SLB Dunbar starts?


10/06 1:00 PM
419 NE 45 *
420 CIN -1½ under?




10/06 1:00 PM
421 SEA -3 ***UNDER***
422 IND 43½ *

SEA DE Irvin returns


10/06 1:00 PM
423 DET 53½ ****
424 GB -7 **OVER**

GB CoB


10/06 1:00 PM
425 NO 49 *
426 CHI -1 over?




10/06 1:00 PM
427 PHI 54½ *
428 NYG -2 OVER




10/06 4:05 PM
429 CAR -2 ****
430 ARI 42½ under?

CAR CoB
ARI new LT Sowell starts
ARI ILB Washington returns


10/06 8:35 PM
431 SD -4½ ***
432 OAK 44½ under




10/06 4:25 PM
433 DEN -7½ ***
434 DAL 57 over?




10/06 8:30 PM
435 HOU 42½ *
436 SF -7 *over?

SF 10 days rest


10/07 8:40 PM
437 NYJ 44 *
438 ATL -10 **under**

NYJ WRx2 OUT
ATL GiB
ATL LBx2 (Worrilow, Dent), LT Baker out???
10/4 update: changed pick from ATL/U to NYJ/U
ATL should win SU, but covering -10??

Crazy? taking STL -11½? and ATL -10? Maybe not so much, JAC is on the road and just traded their best OL, QB Gabbert starts and suddenly -14 looks like a distinct possiblity.
NYJ in the mean time are again on the road against a 1-3 ATL team, that though are down several starters have a D that should shut down NYJ O and ATL O if they come to life should score at least 24pts. I'm thinking NYJ will be lucky to score 10pts... 10/4 update: changed pick from ATL/U to NYJ/U

2013 - week 05 - Thursday picks

10/03 8:25 PM
301 BUF 41 ***UNDER***
302 CLE 4½ *

wk3 for CLE QB Hoyer
BAL - common opponent BUF won, CLE lost
curious not -3½, but -4½

CLE w/QB Hoyer has been hot, I think I'll ride the hot, than back numbers that say to take BUF and pts

GRID - 2013 - week 05

I haven't been keeping up with posting my weekly GRID, but late is better than never I suppose for this.

GRID - 2013 - week 05

You'll note that I have pushed IND and TEN up much higher and have dropped HOU. It's just HOU TO's by QB Schaub are troubling. Schaub has yet to make that jump to elite, consider him good, but not great.

KC and CAR are also another notable leapers up the grid, while the NFC East is really playing so-so at best. I've also knocked down CIN, GB and SF. I've thought about flipping SD and DAL, but decided to leave it as is for now.

What maybe surprising to most is that I have BUF so high and that could be because of the way I rank teams, it doesn't correlate to a team's W-L record at the beginning of the season, but seems to do so toward the end of the season. I could switch BUF and MIA, but again I chose to leave as is and let the natural course of the season effect each team.

2013 - week 04 - results

SF @STL, I had expected TE Davis not to play as well as G Iupati, they each were very important for SF O and their drives for TDs. On a short week SF came together and got the difficult road win, w/LB's Willis and Smith out. SF RB Gore really controlled the game, guess I should pay more attention to when he says he wants the ball more and that they didn't run the ball enough w/their last game vs IND. STL played tough at first but then fell flat, that emo high didn't last long enough. STL injuries didn't help and SF D stuffed their run game. Key play, - SF 3rd and 10, around mid field, mid Q2, completion to WR Boldin and SF seems to be in control (SF goes on to score TD) especially w/STL run O AND run D sputtering.

Hmmm, PIT arrives in Wembley on a 48hr schedule instead of the 4 day schedule MIN chose? Advantage MIN? yep and MIN OL and DL played so much better than the past few games this season. Another former NE backup QB does well (Cassel, CLE QB Hoyer is winning at the moment).

CHI @DET, wow DET starts out w/3FG's and turns it around on TO's. CHI QB Cutler has 3 TO's any more? DET RB not bad game, would be a lot better if he didn't fumble, but he's gaining yds and scoring TD's. DET broke it open in Q2.

PHI @DEN, yep it doesn't appear any team can keep up w/Manning and Co.

NE @ATL, fairly tight, but again a curious play call, ATL goes for it on 4th down instead of kicking FG in Q1? (I think), NE pulls away and ATL gets another "L". It's as if ATL hasn't found an indentity on offense, but apparently NE knows how to stop ATL from 'going to the well' by doubling team TE Gonzalez on the LoS (line of scrimmage) great in-game adjustment by NE during Q4.

Overall another .500 day ATS, but really well for totals, approx 2/3 correct or 66% correct

2013 - week 04 - results