Friday, January 04, 2013

2012 Win Loss Opponents Records - Playoff teams

Odd, I can't upload an image directly from my PC, a screen capture of my spreadsheet showing the playoff teams opponents Win-Loss records for the regular season


Update I was able to upload image using a workaround, I first uploaded to Picasa web album, then selected pix from within blog menu template, sheesh twice the work, when it was so much easier to prior to today.

  Anyway, here's some of my thoughts....  

ATL has the weakest opponent W-L record with a difference of -40
followed by CIN (-32) IND (-30) DEN (-22)
WAS (-3) NE, HOU, BAL (-2)
SEA, SF (+2)
GB (+4)
and MIN (+10) who had the toughest opponents of all the playoff teams this year.

What else that jumps right out? All of the entire AFC opponents were in the negative range and only two for the NFC (ATL and WAS). You can still bet on the AFC vs NFC superbowl angle and get +1.5pts if you took the NFC. 

Comparing Rookie QBs in the playoffs
IND QB Luck faced opponents that totaled 113-143 W-L records (-30)
WAS QB Griffin faced opponents that totaled 126-129 W-L records (-3)
SEA QB Wilson faced opponents that totaled 127-125 W-L records (+2)

just to compare MIA QB Tannehill faced opponents that totaled 127-127 W-L records (+/- 0)
MIA also played SF and STL who have tied this year (add +2 for total games to equal 256)

So who do you think is the best rookie QB? Wilson played the toughest schedule, Luck the easiest

This year is a bit unusual with SF and STL first division game ending in a tie.
Here's what I think for the playoff teams affected by the tie.
If you added a W and a L to each column for NE you would still have them at -2.
You could do the same for MIN and GB.
For SEA you would add +2 to each W and L column and still end up +2. So no change their either.

With SF:
the worst would be to add two to loss column and they would go from +2 to 0
the best would be to add two to win column and they would go from +2 to +4
(still .500 or better)

With WAS:
the worst would be to add one to loss column and they would go from -3 to -4
the best would be to add one to win column and they would go from -3 to -2
(still negative)

So for the majority of teams affected by SF/STL tie game, they would not be affected at all.

WAS would have a +1/-1 record (but still opponents W-L records would still be negative) and SF would be affected in the +2/-2 range (opponents would be .500 or better)

Other notables:
ATL may be headed for another one and done year. So could DEN, odd how the number one seeds both faced much weaker opponents than the second through fourth seeds.

If you were to just use opponent W-L records for betting this weekend, you would be favoring for the AFC - BAL and HOU, with the NFC - SEA and MIN
The closest games would be SEA @WAS (5), then MIN @GB (6) with the AFC games a probable blowout since the difference in opponents records are 28 (IND @BAL) and 30 (CIN @HOU)

Earlier this week:
 I have picked CIN due to their underrated D and HOU recent inability to score pts or stop opponents consistently

I took IND +6 due to their team having less issues than BAL and even with BAL MLB Lewis announcement of retirement I just didn't think BAL would cover the spread of -6

GB should have Woodson back along with Cobb and MIN Winfield may be back as well, but I thought it was unusual for GB not to pick on his replacement more in last weeks game. GB will be at home and coming off a loss to MIN last week, so they should be highly motivated.

SEA @WAS will be the most interesting game to watch, I expect both teams to run the ball, with SEA the better running team, the stronger D and having an edge as well with ST

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