Monday, January 14, 2013

2012 - week 20 - Conference Championship picks

01/20 3:00 PM

301 SF -4 ***
302 ATL 48½ over

This will be SF QB Kaepernick first road playoff game, SF D and ST are playing well, if Kaepernick plays half as well as his first home game, they'll still beat ATL. ATL now has confidence with first playoff win. SF is a better team than last year when then lost to eventual SB champ NYG in a close game 'til Q4. ATL was stomped on last year in the playoffs, they may yet again get stomped on this year by SF

01/20 6:30 PM
303 BAL 51½ under
304 NE -9½ *

BAL lost to NE last year in playoffs, then returned favor to NE this season with a 1pt win at home.
Since that time, NE has acquired CB Talib and BAL has lost CB Webb. BAL will have Suggs back, but I don't believe it will be enough to counter NE O as they appear to be in sync and getting better. Meanwhile NE D as well is playing fairly well, BAL O isn't quite up to snuff and if BAL O can only hit the deep pass on the right side, you'd think NE would be able to scheme for that quite easily

On the W-L opponents records side,

SF (+2) @ATL (-40)

BAL (-2) @NE (-2)

Last weekend results SU and ATS:

BAL @DEN (team w/better opponents won SU, win SU and ATS)
GB @SF (team w/better opponents loss, loss SU loss ATS)
SEA @ATL (team w/better opponents loss, loss SU win ATS)
HOU @NE (team w/better opponents won SU, win SU and ATS)

so 2-2 SU and ATS

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