12/12 8:25 PM 301 SD 55 * 302 DEN -10½ over DEN WR Welker OUT DEN won wk 10 28-20
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
2013 - week 15 - Thursday - picks
I'm thinking.... SD/Over combo
2013 - week 15 - GRIDs
QB Rating:
for clarity -
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9
Team scoring efficiency:
The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.
So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.
IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.
BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.
FYI:
Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.
For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com
For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.
Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.
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| 2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating |
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9
Team scoring efficiency:
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| 2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency |
The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.
So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.
IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.
BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.
FYI:
Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.
For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com
For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.
Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.
Monday, December 09, 2013
2013 - week 14 results
Game Notes:
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired
CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.
FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.
Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.
So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...
Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE
FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....
SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10
Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL@GB 21-22 also should be a SNOW game, but it didn't go over the total, maybe because it was too cold, with a wind chill of -1 and game start temperature of 9 degrees, with winds gusting up to 15mph. An interesting view of the subterrain for the 'frozen tundra' @Lambeau Field. I think GB lost their advantage once, this field warming technology has been in place for several years now (I think).
MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.
Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.
Weekend results:
Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.
CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.
ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired
CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.
FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.
Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.
So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...
Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE
FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....
SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10
Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL
MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.
Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.
Weekend results:
Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.
CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.
ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.
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| 2013 - week 14 - results |
Saturday, December 07, 2013
2013 - week 14 - picks
Looks like a cold weather weekend, so running teams should be favored and dominate DL as well. I'm not really confident on my picks. I already have been toasted on TNF, so I need to watch more games, (if settling into my new place really lets me).
NE W/L 16-1 SU in DEC HOU 0-10 SU streak, now 0-11 Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember Team W-L Pct. DET 17-52 .246 CLE 16-44 .267 OAK 24-49 .329 DAL 28-41 .406 BUF 29-42 .408 GB 14-3-1 vs division SU this week, NONE 'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8-1 SU, 3-8 ATS this week, NO SEA @home 14-0 SU this week, NONE NFC East 12-17 SU vs non-division opponents this week, KC @WAS, DAL @CHI, DET @PHI, NYG @SD TEAMS w/10 days rest 13-11 ATS/SU W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR,IND,ATL) L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**,CIN,MIA,WAS,MIN,TEN,NO] * indicates lost ATS ** indicates won ATS TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr) this week, GB, DET, OAK, DAK, PIT, BAL 12/08 1:00 PM 131 KC -3 ** 132 WAS 45 over WAS ref's err'd last week vs NYG (1st down 'flub') WAS O is an issue, WAS D not much better WC 22 12/08 1:00 PM 133 MIN 43 *under 134 BAL -6½ * MIN may need double digits to cover, total seems to be the better bet MIN QB Cassel starts? WC 20 BAL 10 DR 12/08 1:00 PM 135 CLE 44½ UNDER 136 NE -11½ *** CLE O woe is me, alas says the CLE D CLE QB Campbell starts shouldn't this be NE -21½? CLE DE Bryant OFY WC 19 12/08 1:00 PM 137 OAK 40½ * 138 NYJ -3 over NYJ O has stagnated due to play calling OAK has a real chance to win this game WC 29 OAK 10Dr 12/08 1:00 PM 139 IND 43½ under 140 CIN -6 *** IND inj's to OL, DL and ST CIN D getting healthier WC 20 12/08 8:30 PM 141 CAR 46 UNDER 142 NO -3½ * 1st game of division series flexed to SNF, should be an interesting game 12/08 1:00 PM 143 DET 54 UNDER 144 PHI -2½ *** DET on the road will need to get really lucky or disciplined to win WC 22 DET 10Dr 12/08 1:00 PM 145 MIA 40½ *** 146 PIT -3 under PIT LT? RG? WC 19, normally I'd take the 'cold weather' team, but PIT has OL issues and MIA has a dominant DL PIT 10Dr 12/08 1:00 PM 147 BUF 43 *over 148 TB -2½ * BUF should've won last week @home '@Toronto', this should be officially a no play(bet) game. I don't have a good feel for either team 12/08 4:05 PM 149 TEN 50 * 150 DEN -12 over TEN says refs erred 3x last week @IND WC 5 degree 12/08 4:25 PM 151 STL 41½ under 152 ARI -6½ ** STL C Barnes (1st start) ARI feels as if they were robbed last week @PHI by refs STL won wk1 27-24 ARI has not won a division game L2Y 12/08 4:25 PM 153 NYG 47½ over 154 SD -3 * 12/08 4:25 PM 155 SEA 41½ under 156 SF -3 * SEA won wk2 29-3 12/08 1:00 PM 157 ATL 45 *over 158 GB -3 * wanting to choose ATL, but this is @GB, WC 17 degrees, the better running game should win GB 10Dr 12/09 8:40 PM 159 DAL 48 over 160 CHI -1 * DAL has yet to string 3 wins in a row this season CHI has yet to lose 3 in a row this season DAL 10Dr
Thursday, December 05, 2013
2013 - week 14 - Thursday picks
hmmm...
this is not a game most people would watch, HOU is on a long losing streak and lost @home to JAC in week12, so motivation should be on HOU side, yes even on the road, the series split is more likely to occur than the series sweep
this is not a game most people would watch, HOU is on a long losing streak and lost @home to JAC in week12, so motivation should be on HOU side, yes even on the road, the series split is more likely to occur than the series sweep
12/05 8:25 PM 101 HOU -3 ** 102 JAC 43½ OVER JAC won week12 13-6
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
2013 - GRIDs - week 14
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| 2013 GRID week 14 efficiency |
AFC East
NE -2%, MIA +3%, BUF +3%, NYJ -7%
AFC North
CIN +2%, BAL +5%, PIT +1%, CLE -2%
AFC South
IND -3%, TEN -4%, HOU +1%, JAC +6%
AFC West
DEN -1%, SD -1%, KC -6%, OAK 0%
NFC East
PHI +2%, DAL +1%, NYG +4%, WAS -3%
NFC North
GB -8%, DET +3%, CHI -3%, MIN +3%
NFC South
CAR -1%, NO -7%, TB +1%, ATL +3%
NFC West
SEA +2%, SF 0%, ARI +6%, STL -1%
The highlighted pink indicates the biggest drop this past weekend (NO and GB). No team made an appreciable jump beyond 3%, though MIA, JAC and DET did record a 3% increase from last weekend
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| 2013 GRID week 14 QB rtg |
KC, DAL and DET has dropped into mid tier (12-22 ranking),
MIA,PIT, and CHI has risen into top tier (1-11 ranking)
TB has risen into mid tier (12-22 ranking)
HOU has dropped into bottom tier (23-32 ranking)
note: I noticed I should've had BAL in 2nd tier for week 11 GRID, sigh...
All this movement seems to coincide w/each teams winning SU this past month. We'll see who can keep it up for the last month of the regular season.
2013 - week 13 - results
TNF, GB @DET, watched from mid Q2 to half, DET D playing really well, DET O getting stymied at times, but DET doesn't look like they'll lose at home. Wish I had checked if this was the 2nd games of division series, I would have taken DET for series split, but too late and I was really tired, night prior to game and instinct was off for side, and ok for totals
TNF, OAK @DAL, every preseason, OAK and DAL would hold a joint practice, so their is a familiarity. OAK also has a tendency to be a 1st half team, this held true for thus game. DAL did not get the cover and the 1st half was over the total (so did the whole game)
TNF, PIT @BAL, should've taken dog/pts due to intensity of rivalry, the series split did occur, it's just that BAL did not cover. At the end of the 1st half (10-0 BAL) you'd have thought the total would stay under for the game, but both of these teams are looking like 2nd half teams and the over occurred.
TNF, home teams won SU, but only DET covered ATS, totals ended up 2-0-1. It'll be tough for GB to get a playoff spot with either CAR or NO in one spot and likely either SF or ARI in the other wildcard spot. DET controls it's fate for the rest of the season. DAL is also in a tough spot for a playoff berth, but not as tough as GB. In the AFC, I wonder if PIT can make it into playoffs, it's likely KC will be in one spot and the other may go to SD or BAL. If CIN falls back to the pack, PIT will still have a tough time to gain a playoff berth. TEN may have a better chance than PIT due to schedule, but the 6th spot is up in the air a bit more than in the NFC.
NE @HOU, turns out to be an interesting game as HOU puts up a fight, but it's not enough as NE proves to be too much.
DEN @KC, KC has a good first half, DEN has a better second half and gets the sweep
SNF, NYG @WAS, NYG D gets in gear after Q1 and secures the win.
It was SWEEPS weekend as CAR swept TB, IND swept TEN and DEN swept KC.
As you can see below from the results, since I did watch any games for two weeks, it really does affect picks, well at least for me....
TNF, OAK @DAL, every preseason, OAK and DAL would hold a joint practice, so their is a familiarity. OAK also has a tendency to be a 1st half team, this held true for thus game. DAL did not get the cover and the 1st half was over the total (so did the whole game)
TNF, PIT @BAL, should've taken dog/pts due to intensity of rivalry, the series split did occur, it's just that BAL did not cover. At the end of the 1st half (10-0 BAL) you'd have thought the total would stay under for the game, but both of these teams are looking like 2nd half teams and the over occurred.
TNF, home teams won SU, but only DET covered ATS, totals ended up 2-0-1. It'll be tough for GB to get a playoff spot with either CAR or NO in one spot and likely either SF or ARI in the other wildcard spot. DET controls it's fate for the rest of the season. DAL is also in a tough spot for a playoff berth, but not as tough as GB. In the AFC, I wonder if PIT can make it into playoffs, it's likely KC will be in one spot and the other may go to SD or BAL. If CIN falls back to the pack, PIT will still have a tough time to gain a playoff berth. TEN may have a better chance than PIT due to schedule, but the 6th spot is up in the air a bit more than in the NFC.
NE @HOU, turns out to be an interesting game as HOU puts up a fight, but it's not enough as NE proves to be too much.
DEN @KC, KC has a good first half, DEN has a better second half and gets the sweep
SNF, NYG @WAS, NYG D gets in gear after Q1 and secures the win.
It was SWEEPS weekend as CAR swept TB, IND swept TEN and DEN swept KC.
As you can see below from the results, since I did watch any games for two weeks, it really does affect picks, well at least for me....
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| 2013 - week 13 - results |
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