2015 - week 04 - picks

10/03 Update: Changed pick from WAS/Over to WAS/Under,
10/03 Update: Changed pick from NYG/Over to NYG/Under,
9/30 Update: Hurricane Joaquin appears to be on track to disrupt PHI @WAS.
I might change my pick from WAS/Over to WAS/Under
also RAIN? @BUF, @CHI @CIN


GiB = Going into Bye
GiB CAR MIA MIN NYJ
GiB team record ATS/SU 2-0/1-1 (NE,TEN)
WH = White Hat

10/01 8:25 PM
101 BAL -2½ under
102 PIT 44 *

PIT QB Vick start #1
BAL opponent 3-0 ATS/SU
PIT 2-0-1 ATS
PIT 3-0 6pt teaser
WH OVER 3-0



10/04 9:30 AM
251 NYJ -2 *
252 MIA 41½ under

at Wembley Stadium, England
NYJ GiB
MIA GiB
w/NYJ UNDER 6pt tease 3-0
w/MIA opponent 6pt tease 3-0 ATS
WH FAV 3-0 SU, OVER 3-0



10/04 1:00 PM
253 JAC 48 *
254 IND -9 over

w/IND dog 3-0 ATS
w/IND opponent 6pt tease 3-0 ATS
WH DOG 3-0 ATS



10/04 1:00 PM
255 HOU 46½ over
256 ATL -6½ *

w/HOU opponent 6pt tease 3-0 ATS
w/HOU UNDER 6pt tease 2-0-1
ATL 3-0 ATS/SU
HOU QB Mallett start #2
WH UNDER 3-0



10/04 1:00 PM
257 CAR -3 *
258 TB 40 under

CAR GiB
CAR 3-0 6pt teaser
CAR/Under 7pt teaser 3-0
WH UNDER 3-0



10/04 1:00 PM
259 NYG 47 *
260 BUF -6 **UNDER**

w/BUF OVER 6pt tease 3-0
WH ROAD 3-0



10/04 1:00 PM
261 OAK -3 ****
262 CHI 44 under

w/OAK OVER 3-0
CHI opponent 3-0 ATS
CHI QB Clausen start #2



10/04 1:00 PM
263 PHI -3½ under
264 WAS 47½ *

w/PHI DOG 3-0 ATS
w/PHI UNDER 6pt tease 3-0
WH OVER 3-0



10/04 1:00 PM
265 KC 44½ OVER
266 CIN -3½ ***

CIN 3-0 ATS
w/CIN OVER 6pt tease 3-0
WH FAV 3-0, SU 3-0



10/04 4:05 PM
267 CLE 45 **
268 SD -7½ under

w/CLE OVER and UNDER 6pt tease 3-0 (middler)
w/SD HomeFAV 3-0 ATS
w/SD opponent/OVER 6pt tease 3-0 ATS 
CLE QB McCown start #3
WH FAV 3-0



10/04 4:25 PM
269 GB -9 ***
270 SF 48 over

w/SF HOME 3-0 ATS 
WH HOME 3-0



10/04 4:25 PM
271 MIN 43 *under
272 DEN -6½ *

MIN GiB
w/MIN HOME 3-0 ATS
w/MIN UNDER 2-0-1
WH FAV 2-0, SU 2-0



10/04 4:25 PM
273 STL 42 under
274 ARI -6½ **

ARI/Over 3-0 ATS
WH HOME 3-0



10/04 8:30 PM
275 DAL 46½ *
276 NO -4 under

w/DAL ROAD team 3-0 ATS
w/NO OVER 6pt tease 3-0
DAL QB Weeden start #2
NO QB McCown start #2
WH ROAD 2-0



10/05 8:30 PM
277 DET 43 under
278 SEA -10 ***

w/SEA HOME 3-0 ATS

2015 - week 03 - results

ugghhh, what an ugly game, I'm talking about Thursday night WAS @NYG.
WAS played ok except for turnovers, QB questionable throws, ST snafus, player attrition and questionable play calling by OC and DC.
NYG did win, but they have just as many issues to contend with. Really ugly to watch....Way to start the weekend 0-fer... sigh


Finally, I'm above .500 ATS for the season (25-22-1) as I ended up 11-5 for the week ATS.
I also ended up above .500 for totals this week 8-7-1, I just need to rise above .500 for the season (18-29-1 - looks really tough with my rough start)

2015 - week 03 - results

2015 - week 03 - picks

note:
UPDATES 9/25: numbers for NO @CAR and DEN @DET (picks unchanged)
due to uncertainty of starting QBs of NO and DET
for games, NO @CAR and DEN @DET
numbers you see will likely be updated on Friday/Saturday

GiB = Going into Bye (NE, TEN)
WH = White Hat
AFC West, road warriors this week

Last week, wk1 TNF teams NE and PIT, wk2 results 2-0 ATS/SU
This week, wk2 TNF teams DEN and KC ?-?

09/24 8:25 PM
301 WAS 44 *
302 NYG -4 under

WAS 1st road game
w/WAS UNDER 2-0
WAS/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NYG has swept last 4 games 
w/NYG DOG 2-0 ATS
NYG Opponent/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NYG/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH ROAD 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
461 PIT -1 *****
462 STL 47½ over

PIT has won last 2 games (07, 11) by 17 and 27 pts
PIT RB Bell returns
PIT/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
STL OL average? run block
w/STL home team 2-0 ATS
WH ROAD 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
463 SD 45 *over*
464 MIN -2½ *

BIG W/L?(MIN) or CLOSE W/L?(SD) - alternating W/L
w/SD HomeFav 2-0 ATS
SD/SD opponent/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
w/MIN Home/Under 2-0 ATS
w/MIN Under only 6pt teaser 2-0. over 0-2 this season
WH FAV 2-0 SU
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS



09/27 1:00 PM
465 TB 40½ *
466 HOU -6½ ***UNDER***

teams have only play 3x, margin of victory 13,14,28 HOU leads 2-1 series
w/TB DOG 2-0 ATS
w/TB Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
HOU LG ?liability? RT? OL issues 3rd new starting 5 in 3 weeks
w/HOU OVER 2-0
HOU opponent/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
HOU opponent/Over/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
467 PHI 47½ under
468 NYJ -2½ **

PHI HC Kelly 'I was embarrassed'
PHI beat up?
PHI has swept series 9-0
w/PHI DOG/UNDER 2-0 ATS
NYJ 2-0 ATS
NYJ/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH UNDER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
469 NO 42½ ***UNDER***
470 CAR -8 **

NO QB Brees out? L McCown starts?
NO 0-2 ATS 
NO O 'turd'
CAR 2-0 ATS
CAR/Under 6pt teaser 2-0
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH UNDER 2-0
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
471 JAC 47½ under
472 NE -13½ *

JAC 1st road game
w/JAC under only 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NE has swept series 6-0
NE/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NE GiB



09/27 1:00 PM
473 CIN 44 *
474 BAL -3 over

CIN has won L3G
CIN 2-0 ATS
CIN/Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
BAL 0-2 ATS
BAL home opener
WH OVER 2-0



09/27 1:00 PM
475 OAK 42 *
476 CLE -3½ **OVER**

OAK 1st road game
w/OAK OVER 2-0
CLE has won L2G (has won L3G @CLE)
w/CLE home/over 2-0 ATS
w/CLE Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
477 IND -3½ *
478 TEN 45½ over

IND has won L3G
IND 0-2 ATS/SU
IND opponent/under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
w/TEN DOG/OVER 2-0 ATS
TEN home opener, GiB
TEN RT Warmack OUT
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
479 ATL -1 ***
480 DAL 44½ UNDER

ATL/Under 2-0 ATS
w/ATL DOG 2-0 ATS
DAL QB Brandon Weeden STARTS
DAL TE Witten?
w/DAL DOG 2-0 ATS
DAL/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 4:05 PM
481 SF 43½ over
482 ARI -6½ *

w/SF home team 2-0 ATS
ARI/Over 2-0 ATS
ARI OL starts? RT Massie? LG Iupati?
ARI PR ?



09/27 4:25 PM
483 CHI 44 **OVER**
484 SEA -14½ *
 
CHI QB Jimmy Clausen STARTS
CHI 1st road game
w/CHI Fav/Over 2-0 ATS
SEA has won L3G during regular season
w/SEA home team 2-0 ATS
w/SEA over only 6pt teaser 2-0
WH UNDER 2-0



09/27 4:25 PM
485 BUF 43½ ***
486 MIA -3 under

w/BUF Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
La Canfora on Miami 'can't run the ball and can't stop the run''horrible dynamic'
MIA DC?
w/MIA Under only 6pt teaser 2-0
MIA home opener
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 8:30 PM
487 DEN -3 *****
488 DET 44½ under?

DEN 2-0 ATS
DET has won L2G
DET QB Stafford out? Orlovsky starts?
DET DC?
DET home opener
w/DET HomeFav 2-0 ATS 
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
Question: When will DEN HC/OC Kubiak let QB Manning run his Offense all game?



09/28 8:30 PM
489 KC 49 over
490 GB -7 *

w/KC Dog/Over 2-0 ATS
w/KC Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
GB 2-0 ATS
GB/Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0
GB/opponent/Over/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season ('middle')
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU

2015 - week 02 - results

You gotta hand it to Manning & Company, they are finding ways to win. It's the 2nd week in a row the game is decided on a defensive TD. Manning is now 14-1 vs KC. KC's turnovers really killed them.


just an awful week picking sides (6-10) and totals (4-12)...
for the season ATS(14-17-1) totals (10-22)

2015 - week 02 - results

2015 - week 02 - picks

Update 9/17:
changed pick from CAR/Under to HOU/Under
changed pick from TB/Under to NO/Under
changed pick from SF/Under to PIT/Under

my picks (in bold) using an efficiency method...

09/17 8:25 PM
101 DEN 42½ *UNDER*
102 KC -3 *

DEN has swept div series L3Y



09/20 1:00 PM
261 HOU 40½ *
262 CAR -3 *under

HOU QB Mallet starts



09/20 1:00 PM
263 TB 47 *under
264 NO -10 *

09/20 1:00 PM
265 SF 45 *under*
266 PIT -6 *

09/20 1:00 PM
267 DET 43 ****
268 MIN -3 under

DET tale of two halves last week
MIN O? worst in NFL?


09/20 1:00 PM
269 NE -1 *over*
270 BUF 45 *

BUF DT Dareus returns from G1 suspension



09/20 1:00 PM
271 ARI -2½ ***
272 CHI 46 over

09/20 1:00 PM
273 TEN -1½ **
274 CLE 41½ under

CLE QB Manziel starts



09/20 1:00 PM
275 SD 46½ *over*
276 CIN -3 *

SD tale of two halves last week



09/20 1:00 PM
277 STL -3 *
278 WAS 41½ *over*

09/20 1:00 PM
279 ATL 51 **
280 NYG -2½ over

09/20 4:05 PM
281 BAL -6 *
282 OAK 43 *under*

OAK QB McGloin starts?
OAK S N Allen (knee) & C Woodson (shoulder), CB Hayden OUT?



09/20 4:05 PM
283 MIA -6 *
284 JAC 41½ **UNDER**

09/20 4:25 PM
285 DAL 55½ over
286 PHI -5 *

09/20 8:30 PM
287 SEA 48½ over
288 GB -3½ *


09/21 8:30 PM
289 NYJ 47 *
290 IND -7 over

Just for SU, picks using QB with more NFL experience

DEN
CAR
PIT
NO
DET
ARI
NE
SD
CLE
NYG
STL
MIA
BAL
DAL
GB
NYJ

2015 - week 01 - results

The opening game win for the SB champ trend continues w/NE getting the home win. PIT had a garbage time TD which made the score 21-28, it wasn't that close. 1st half miscues by PIT ST, D and O had the game in NE favor early on. PIT looked like a 20's team and with 2 missed FGs. Play calling by O was a bit curious on the first drive. PIT 2ndary has real issues.

I guess I did ok, compared to last year I did better ATS, but worse on totals.... sigh
results below:

2015 - results - week 01

In hindsight, what would have won more SU:

Just picking the older QB, the QB with more NFL experience won 11 games SU

There were a few games with ties for years of NFL experience. If you had chosen the dog in each case (SEA @STL, TEN @TB, MIA @WAS) you would have won 2 of 3 [MIA was only favorite to win SU]

Of the remaining two games (CLE @NYJ) CLE starting QB inj'd and (NO @ARI) ARI D is formidable or NO O (specifically WRs) are in a funk

ATS:
(if you just picked the QB w/more years of NFL experience, and if tied pick dog)
Again you would have won 11 game ATS, the games that bucked the trend are below:
PIT @NE = Push
CLE @NYJ = HF
MIA @WAS = RF
NO @ARI = HF
NYG @DAL = RD

As for totals... I was doing ok, until the TEN game, from there on the games were not as I envisioned them...sigh..

2015 - week 01 - picks

And so the season begins with a big 'splash' game. Will this game be over hyped? There's a lot of media attention on NE. PIT doesn't have as much, but should be focused as they will be up against the reigning SB champs. You see this every season, SB champs will be taking the toughest shots from their opponents every weekend. It's a schedule that seems to wear down most SB champs, some slower, some faster.

Here's my opening weekend picks:

09/10 8:30 PM
461 PIT 52½ *over*
462 NE -7 *

I've been going over this game flipping back and forth on my picks
for either side and with totals as well...
there are only 4 possibilities:
Fav/Over
Fav/Under
Dog/Over
Dog/Under
In the end, NE seems to be content with their OL, despite their starting center being place on IR (returnable).
They signed a CB off of MIN practice squad.
PIT D seems to be more of a mystery to me. As for PIT O, missing skilled players due to suspensions it's hard to believe they'll keep the scoring up at their previous rate from last year. It's more likely they'll return to that 31+pt scoring once the suspended players return.
Thus with my logic on scoring... PIT should score approx half of the total (26pts) to cover ATS NE will need to score 34+pts and Fav/Over will be the winning combo. Even if PIT only scores 21pts, NE will need to score 32pts for the Fav/Over combo.
I make this with the assumption that PIT will not be running the ball as much, they will be throwing the ball. If PIT runs the ball more than expected, than the over will not occur, due to running the ball shortens the game.
I do expect NE to control the majority of the game. First with passing and later on with running.
Oh well I could be wrong...



09/13 1:00 PM
463 GB -7 *****
464 CHI 49 under

09/13 1:00 PM
465 KC 41 *
466 HOU -1 over

09/13 1:00 PM
467 CLE 39½ *UNDER*
468 NYJ -3 **

09/13 1:00 PM
469 IND -2½ *
470 BUF 46 over

09/13 1:00 PM
471 MIA -4 *****
472 WAS 43½ UNDER

09/13 1:00 PM
473 CAR -3 *
474 JAC 41 *UNDER*

09/13 1:00 PM
475 SEA -4 *
476 STL 41 UNDER

09/13 4:05 PM
477 NO 48 **OVER**
478 ARI -3 *

09/13 4:05 PM
479 DET 46 *
480 SD -3 *OVER*

09/13 4:25 PM
481 TEN 41½ *
482 TB -3 under

09/13 4:25 PM
483 CIN -3½ **
484 OAK 43½ under

09/13 4:25 PM
485 BAL 48½ *
486 DEN -4 over

09/13 8:30 PM
487 NYG 51½ UNDER
488 DAL -6 *****

09/14 7:10 PM
489 PHI -3 ***
490 ATL 56 over

09/14 10:20 PM
491 MIN -2½ ****
492 SF 41½ under

2015 - random thoughts....

The 2015 season is upon us and in a couple of days the season begins....

So I'm a bit confused with PIT @NE, the first game of the regular season awaiting my picks....

Right now I see NE favored by -7 and a total of 51.5 for most 'vegas sports books.

I'm confused by the similarities, neither team will have their starting Center and their secondaries are not as tested as last years version.

Is the emotion edge really with NE? (due to the recent court victory for QB Brady w/'deflate gate').

IMO NE QB Brady was not in sync w/the majority of WRs during preseason and PIT QB Roethlisberger was only slightly better w/his set of WRs

So I decided to look at last year and prior years records, so what better way than to review the '2015 NFL Record and Fact Book' (http://www.nfl.com/static/content/public/photo/2015/07/21/0ap3000000502939.pdf)

And though for the most part it's accurate (I guess, I reviewed it for about an hour or so...) I did find inaccuracies. Take for instance winning percentage, the formula should be wins divided by total games played, but I found instances where the calculated winning percentage did not include all games. In fact if you look at teams that had ties during the regular season. In this case I was reviewing Active coaches, I noted the above error where tied games were not included in the winning percentage, thus boosting the winning percentage of some coaches (page 27 for pdf reader, page 26 of the book).

I also noted an inaccuracy in TV markets where San Antonio is considered an NFL market, which is really odd to me since they don't have an NFL team in their market (starts on page 321).

So should I really consider this book as "factual"??? At 851 pages I guess inaccuracies will creep in with various editors. It's so massive they've included 'Digest of rules' and 'Official signals'.

I do like the Sunday Night Football All Time Standings for the AFC and NFC, as well as the Monday Night records as well. 'Inside the Numbers' is also interesting with 'Records of teams on Kickoff Weekend' (page 302) [CLE has lost 10 straight games for their openers, HOU has the longest win streak with 5 wins]. 'Starting Records of Active NFL QBs' is another gem (page 312). Records after Bye weeks (page 314) could be useful

and what did I review for this upcoming Thursday Night game on CBS? I looked at NE vs PIT regular season and in the past 10 or so years NE holds the edge (as well as in the post season) see 'All Time Records Team vs Team' (starts on page 403, NE vs PIT 465-466).

The home team has won the last 11 of 13 games for Opening Kickoff games (page 513)

Maybe useful???
Thanksgiving day results (page 521)
Interconference Games (page 522)

SU I guess NE is the pick, the question is will they cover -7? The total seems to be a bit high to me at 51.5, but if you consider both teams secondaries maybe this game will go over...

So the choices are NE/Over, NE/Under, PIT/Over, PIT/Under - an automatic 25% chance of picking the right combo...

Which combo will double your money???