Tuesday, September 08, 2015

2015 - random thoughts....

The 2015 season is upon us and in a couple of days the season begins....

So I'm a bit confused with PIT @NE, the first game of the regular season awaiting my picks....

Right now I see NE favored by -7 and a total of 51.5 for most 'vegas sports books.

I'm confused by the similarities, neither team will have their starting Center and their secondaries are not as tested as last years version.

Is the emotion edge really with NE? (due to the recent court victory for QB Brady w/'deflate gate').

IMO NE QB Brady was not in sync w/the majority of WRs during preseason and PIT QB Roethlisberger was only slightly better w/his set of WRs

So I decided to look at last year and prior years records, so what better way than to review the '2015 NFL Record and Fact Book' (http://www.nfl.com/static/content/public/photo/2015/07/21/0ap3000000502939.pdf)

And though for the most part it's accurate (I guess, I reviewed it for about an hour or so...) I did find inaccuracies. Take for instance winning percentage, the formula should be wins divided by total games played, but I found instances where the calculated winning percentage did not include all games. In fact if you look at teams that had ties during the regular season. In this case I was reviewing Active coaches, I noted the above error where tied games were not included in the winning percentage, thus boosting the winning percentage of some coaches (page 27 for pdf reader, page 26 of the book).

I also noted an inaccuracy in TV markets where San Antonio is considered an NFL market, which is really odd to me since they don't have an NFL team in their market (starts on page 321).

So should I really consider this book as "factual"??? At 851 pages I guess inaccuracies will creep in with various editors. It's so massive they've included 'Digest of rules' and 'Official signals'.

I do like the Sunday Night Football All Time Standings for the AFC and NFC, as well as the Monday Night records as well. 'Inside the Numbers' is also interesting with 'Records of teams on Kickoff Weekend' (page 302) [CLE has lost 10 straight games for their openers, HOU has the longest win streak with 5 wins]. 'Starting Records of Active NFL QBs' is another gem (page 312). Records after Bye weeks (page 314) could be useful

and what did I review for this upcoming Thursday Night game on CBS? I looked at NE vs PIT regular season and in the past 10 or so years NE holds the edge (as well as in the post season) see 'All Time Records Team vs Team' (starts on page 403, NE vs PIT 465-466).

The home team has won the last 11 of 13 games for Opening Kickoff games (page 513)

Maybe useful???
Thanksgiving day results (page 521)
Interconference Games (page 522)

SU I guess NE is the pick, the question is will they cover -7? The total seems to be a bit high to me at 51.5, but if you consider both teams secondaries maybe this game will go over...

So the choices are NE/Over, NE/Under, PIT/Over, PIT/Under - an automatic 25% chance of picking the right combo...

Which combo will double your money???

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