2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - picks

well here goes nothing...

01/14 4:35 PM
301 SEA 51½ *over*
302 ATL -4½ *

SEA doesn't do well on the road...
29-20?


01/14 8:15 PM
303 HOU 45 under
304 NE -16 *

tempted to take pts, but this will be disciple against master... lol
27-6?


01/15 1:05 PM
305 PIT -1 over
306 KC 46½ *

noted: PIT QB Roethlisberger wearing ankle boot after PO week 1 game
30-24?


01/15 4:40 PM
307 GB 51½ *
308 DAL -4 over

We're seeing a performance for the ages w/GB QB Rogers
31-27?

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - results

I can't believe it, but I guess it was time for this to happen...

ALL the home favorites won ATS(Against The Spread) and SU (Straight Up)

1st and 4th games went Over the total, with 2nd and 3rd games ending Under the total

I ended up 2-2 ATS and 0-4 for Totals.... just awful... sigh..

oh well, on to next week...

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - picks

Update 1/4: added White Hat(WH) records - tendencies - of which some are going against what I picked, maybe I'll change...

OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...

01/07 4:35 PM
101 OAK 37 under
102 HOU -3 *

week 11 rematch OAK won 27-20 vs HOU (@OAK)
OAK QB Cook starts? (1st)
HOU QB Osweiler starts?
Placing a first half bet on under (18½?) seems prudent
Both teams will need to win running the ball, play good ST and outstanding D
There should be a lot of punts, likely 6 to 7 punts each, with the most 
possessions to be 10 for each team. So 3 to 4 scores at most for each team
Likely only 1 TD each and the rest FGs...
Sports books posted a total of 37 (20-17)
I'm thinking 16-13 at most...
This game really looks like a 6pt tease candidate, w/OAK +9 and under 43 combo.
or if you're into 'middling' do 6½ pt tease
HOU +2½/OAK +9½ or under 43½/over 31½ as possible
or if you're really fearful do a 7pt tease
HOU +3/OAK +10 or under 44/over 30 as possible
if OAK can win with run O, this game could be moneyline win
WH 12-3 FAV SU (LY 13-2 FAV SU)

01/07 8:15 PM
103 DET 42½ *
104 SEA -7½ **over**

judging by the total posted for this game, sportsbooks have questions
6 pt tease = DET +13½/over 36½
DET moneyline?
normally I'd look at under due to SEA D prowess, but I'm thinking at the half a 
score of 13-10 or more is likely
WH 3-12 Over-Under

01/08 1:05 PM
105 MIA 47 over
106 PIT -10 *

week 6 rematch MIA won 30-15 vs PIT (@MIA)
MIA QB Moore starts (3rd)
6 pt tease = PIT -4 over 41 MIA +16 (unsure if under 53 will win)
PIT should win, cover? 31-20?
WH 11-4 RoadATS & FAV SU (LY 12-3 FAV SU)

01/08 4:40 PM
107 NYG 44½ *
108 GB -4 **under**

Placing a first half bet on under (22½?) seems prudent
week 5 rematch GB won 23-16 vs NYG (@GB)
6 pt tease = under 50½ NYG +10 GB +1 (I don't think over 38½ will win)
21-17?
WH 10-4-1 RoadATS 4-10-1 FAV-DOG-tie (LY 3-13 FAV-DOG)

2016 - week 17 - results

An unusual season, but one I ended on the UP swing, which is nice.
No teams looks truly dominant, with all playoff bound teams having an Achilles heel (or two).
I'll remember this season for the white hats calling less penalties and there were far more sweeps of division series than I can recall.

SF will need to find a new direction as this franchise is in disarray. It was a waste of a season for former head coach Chip Kelly. Perhaps he'll find a position w/NE, just my guess as he and HC Belichick are good friends.


Week 17 results:
ATS : 10-6
Totals: 8-8



for the regular season:
ATS : 132-117-6
Totals: 130-119-6

2016 - week 17 - picks

aaahhh... the last week of the regular season - just as tough to pick (well at least for me) this week as last week...

01/01 1:00 PM
301 HOU 40 *under*
302 TEN -3 *

HOU QB Savage starts (2nd)
TEN QB Cassel starts (1st)



01/01 1:00 PM
303 BUF -6½ **under**
304 NYJ 44 *

BUF interim HC OC Lynn
BUF HC Ryan fired
BUF QB Manuel starts
NYJ QB Ftzpatrick starts



01/01 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41½ *
306 CIN -2½ *under*

BAL WR Smith last game (retires?)
BAL sweeps?
CIN splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
307 NYG 44 *
308 WAS -8 over

NYG in PO spot
NYG splits?
WAS sweeps?
WAS must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 8:30 PM
309 GB -3 ***OVER***
310 DET 46½ *

winner NFC North champ
GB sweeps?
DET splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
311 JAC 47 ***over***
312 IND -4½ *

JAC RBs OUT who starts?
JAC sweeps?
IND splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
313 DAL 42½ under
314 PHI -6 *

DAL sweeps?
PHI splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
315 CHI 41 under
316 MIN -5½ *

CHI sweeps?
MIN splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
317 CAR 46½ *
318 TB -6½ over

CAR splits?
TB sweeps?
TB must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 1:00 PM
319 CLE 44 *
320 PIT -7 under

CLE splits?
PIT sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
321 NO 56 ***over***
322 ATL -7 *

NO splits?
ATL sweeps?
ATL win/loss could affect PO seeding



01/01 1:00 PM
323 NE -9½ over
324 MIA 44½ ***

NE likely AFC #1 seed
NE sweeps?
MIA splits?
MIA in PO spot, could move up a knotch
MIA QB Moore starts (2nd)
MIA HC Gase we're not resting starters



01/01 4:25 PM
325 ARI -6½ *
326 LA 41 under

ARI splits?
LA sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
327 KC -5 *
328 SD 45½ over

KC either AFC West champ or PO berth
KC sweeps?
SD splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
329 SEA -9½ *
330 SF 43 under

SEA win/loss could affect PO seeding
SEA win #2 seed
SEA loss #3? seed
SEA sweeps?
SF splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
331 OAK 41½ under
332 DEN -2½ *

OAK QB McGloin starts (1st)
OAK either AFC West champ or PO berth
OAK sweeps?
DEN splits?

2016 - week 16 - results

not a good week... a sub .500 weekend..

week 16 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 6-9-1


and what are the chances of having identical ATS and Totals records???

for the season:
ATS: 122-111-6
Totals:  122-111-6

2016 - week 16 - picks

The games with playoff motivation are easy to spot, the games w/o motivation are much tougher to predict...

12/22 8:25 PM
101 NYG -2½ *
102 PHI 41½ under

wk9 NYG won 28-23 vs PHI
sweep?
sub-freezing, windy


12/24 1:00 PM
103 WAS -3½ *under*
104 CHI 45½ *

WAS CoMNF (6 days between games)
WAS vs NFC N 2-1 SU/ATS (MIN,GB-DET)
CHI vs NFC E 0-3 SU 1-2 ATS (PHI,DAL,NYG)
cloudy, cold


12/24 1:00 PM
105 MIA 42 *
106 BUF -4 over

wk7 MIA won 28-25 vs BUF
MIA ST 2wks-in-a-row block
sweep?
RAIN, gusty? cold



12/24 4:25 PM
107 TB 52½ * 
108 NO -3 under

wk14 TB won 16-11 vs NO
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
109 ATL -2½ *over*
110 CAR 52 *

ATL w/win clinch div and PO berth
CAR spoiler?
CAR CoMNF (6 days between games)
wk4 ATL won 48-33 vs CAR
split?



12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIN 43 over
112 GB -6½ *

wk2 MIN won 17-14 vs GB
split?
cold, sun/cloud


12/24 1:00 PM
113 NYJ 44 *
114 NE -16½ *under*

NE should win SU, but ATS?
wk12 NE won 22-17 @NYJ
sweep?
RAIN, windy



12/24 1:00 PM
115 TEN -5 ***
116 JAC 44 under

TEN will run over JAC
JAC HC Bradley fired
wk8 TEN won 36-22 vs JAC
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
117 SD -6 under
118 CLE 44 *

Peer Game
SD 0-1 SU/ATS (MIA)
CLE 0-1 SU 1-0 ATS (TEN)
RAIN? windy



12/24 4:05 PM
119 IND 53 *
120 OAK -3½ *over*

IND vs AFC W 1-2 SU/ATS (SD-DEN,KC)
OAK vs AFC S 3-0 SU/ATS
WH road 10-3-1 dog 10-3-1



12/24 4:25 PM
121 SF 40 under
122 LA -3½ *

SF inj's
wk1 SF won 28-0 vs LA
split?
WH FAV SU 9-4



12/24 4:25 PM
123 ARI 43 *
124 SEA -8½ *under*

wk7 ARI tie 6-6 vs SEA
WH FAV SU 11-2



12/24 8:25 PM
125 CIN 41 **UNDER**
126 HOU -1½ *

CIN LB Burfict OUT?
CIN LG Boling OUT?
Peer Game
CIN 0-1 SU/ATS (DEN)
HOU 0-1 SU/ATS (NE)
HOU QB Savage starts (1st) (nice Q4 comeback win last week vs JAC)



12/25 4:30 PM
127 BAL 44 under
128 PIT -5 *

wk9 BAL won 21-14 vs PIT
split?
rain? wind?



12/25 8:30 PM
129 DEN 37½ ***under***
130 KC -3½ *

wk12 KC won 30-27 @DEN
sweep?
RAIN, GUSTY, COLD, clears?



12/26 8:30 PM
131 DET 43 over
132 DAL -7 *

DET inj's?
DET vs NFC E 2-1 SU/ATS (PHI,WAS-NYG)
DAL vs NFC N 3-0 SU 2-1 ATS (CHI,GB,MIN)