2013 - week 09 - picks

GB 14-1 vs division SU
this week, CHI @GB

 'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-6 SU/ATS
this week STL

 NFC East 4-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, MIN @DAL, SD @WAS, PHI @OAK

 TEAMS w/10 days rest 10-4 SU
TEAMS w/10 days rest 9-5 ATS
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*) 
 L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI] 
* indicates lost ATS 
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week CAR TB

 Teams Going into Bye 9-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 8-12 ATS
W (CAR,MIN,WAS,SD,DEN,NYG,DET*,SF,ARI) 
 L [GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN,JAC] 
* indicates lost ATS 
Teams Going into Bye (GiB)
 this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

 Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU
 W (GB,PIT,ATL,NO,OAK) 
 L [CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA]
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB)
 this week, BAL CHI HOU IND SD TEN

 It's the second half of the season for half of the NFL
It's the final game of the first half of the season for:
MIA BAL PIT HOU TEN IND OAK SD WAS GB CHI MIN NO ATL CAR TB
I'm thinking we should have more tight games this weekend, but last week only 5 games were less than 10 pt difference 8 games were decided by 10 or more pts

11/03 1:00 PM
401 ATL 43½ OVER
402 CAR -7½ ****

ATL on the road couldn't handle ARI, so vs a div rival @home...
10Dr CAR



11/03 1:00 PM
403 MIN 47½ *UNDER?
404 DAL -10½ ****

DAL O having issues, but take pts???



11/03 1:00 PM
405 NO -6 ***
406 NYJ 45½ over

GiB NYJ
NYJ alternating WL, this game W?
NYJ banged up



11/03 1:00 PM
407 TEN -3 ***UNDER***
408 STL 39½ **

CoB TEN
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 2)
this game should be close w/stifling D's



11/03 1:00 PM
409 KC -3 *
410 BUF 40½ under

KC run D??
GiB KC
BUF QB Tuel starts? QB Flynn starts?
KC loss LY 17-35 @BUF



11/03 1:00 PM
411 SD -1 *
412 WAS 51 under

if SD D forces WAS O to pass, it'll be a long day for WAS
CoB SD



11/03 4:05 PM
413 PHI 45 *UNDER*
414 OAK -2½ *

PHI QB Foles starts
PHI QB Foles getting split reps w/Barkley
Split reps not a good sign for any team



11/03 4:05 PM
415 TB 40 *UNDER
416 SEA -16 *

10Dr TB
SEA 6 days rest
really thought about taking pts



11/03 4:25 PM
417 BAL -2½ under?
418 CLE 41 *

CoB BAL
GiB CLE
CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 2)



11/03 4:25 PM
419 PIT 44 UNDER
420 NE -6½ *

PIT OL shuffle, LT,LG,RG M*A*S*H unit
GiB NE



11/03 8:30 PM
421 IND -2½ *UNDER*
422 HOU 45 *

CoB IND
CoB HOU
IND WR#1 ?
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 2)
HOU QB Keenum another tough start (1st @KC)



11/04 8:40 PM
423 CHI 49½ under?
424 GB -11 ***

CoB CHI
CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 1) 

2013 - week 09 - Thursday pick

10/31 8:25 PM
303 CIN -2½ *****
304 MIA 42½ under 

MIA RT J Martin - has left the team
if MIA O couldn't handle NE D, CIN D is so much better
CIN MLB Maualuga OUT
CIN doesn't play as well on the road, but MIA plays worse at home
MIA won LY 17-13 @CIN

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

The biggest mover is NYG up +6% from last week, PHI also had a big move, but it was down -5%

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

2013 - week 08 - results

DAL @DET, Q1 and what strikes me is 'how can DAL win?' w/their first 4 drives ending in punts, then their D turns it up and keeps them in the game, but in the end DAL D could not stop DET O. DET O continued to move the ball throughout the game. DAL O sputtered for the most part and when they really need a first down to keep the ball and kill time to end the game. DAL could not, they left DET w/62 sec on the clock and what a finish for DET.

MIA @NE, a tale of two halves in the first half MIA did all the right things and led 17-3 at the half, but in the second half, they could do nothing right giving up turnovers and sacks to close out the game. It seemed to me that NE D blitzing really bothered Tannehill and company. It was as to me that MIA was ill prepared for constant blitzing. If Tannehill had a hot read for the blitz or a screen, it just did not happen during the 2nd Half and NE pressed their advantage, until they got the lead and kept it. Just one other thing of note. The batting the ball penalty on MIA DT/DE Vernon was a bad call by refs, and gave outstanding field position, which led to NE scoring a TD and MIA then seemed to be in 'panic' mode. I say panic because they didn't run the ball.

WAS @DEN, somewhat interesting, but I fell asleep, I guess I couldn't see how WAS O would be able to move the ball consistently.

GB @MIN, MIN gets a ST TD, but later GB returns the favor, though this was a division game, MIN did not play as well (or with a greater emotional uplift at home) as I thought they could, count them as toast for the rest of the season.

NYJ, ATL, and DAL all lost on the road after winning vs division foes (NYJ beat NE, ATL beat TB, DAL beat PHI) last week


This week I ended up just above .500 ATS and just below .500 for totals.

KC won SU but did not cover ATS, this bodes well for CLE

CIN blows out NYJ in a big surprise to me. I really thought it would be a much closer game. The biggest surprise was ATL collapse on the road at ARI. ARI QB Palmer had a much more conservative game and thus had only one int (instead of the normal 2 - either 2ints or an int and a fumble for so many games).

I should've stuck w/my original pick of DEN/Over... sigh

Lost in the SEA D winning their game on the road @STL is the fact that STL D played very well and their O just the opposite.

2013 - week 08 - results

Recent post by Sports Reference

NFL Team Records vs. Each Division Since 2002

Nice stuff to review, a few teams are known for dominating and being dominated

The W:L ratio for a few are 3:1 (or 1:3) and theirs also a few at 2:1 (or 1:2), but many have only a slight advantage.

Of course, these are just for SU, but this could be useful for money line bets, especially with a parlay.

2013 - week 08 - picks

Trends:
'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 0-6 SU/ATS
this week ARI

NFC East 4-12 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, DAL @DET, WAS @DEN

TEAMS w/10 days rest 8-4 ATS/SU
 W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG) 
 L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI] 
this week SEA ARI

Teams Going into Bye 4-10 ATS/SU 
W(CAR,MIN,WAS,SD) 
L[GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN]
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) JAC, DEN, NYG, DET, SF, ARI

Teams Coming Off Bye 3-5 ATS/SU
 W(GB,PIT,ATL) 
 L (CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA) 
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) NO, OAK

10/27 1:00 PM
209 SF -16½ *
210 JAC 41 under

@Wembly Stadium, London, England
JAC HC Bradley disappointed in lack of effort for last weeks game vs SD
10/21 update: JAC HC Bradley has left team due to fathers passing away
JAC interim HC DB coach DeWayne Walker
GiB JAC
GiB SF

JAC got 28pts vs DEN and they covered, so why pick against them?

SF D, they are the reason and this game is essentially another road game for JAC so no home crowd, not that they get that much of an advantage at home.

On the road and in another country I think we'll see SF have more fans than JAC.

BTW I picked JAC to cover when they were getting 28pts (see week 6)

10/27 1:00 PM
211 DAL 51 *
212 DET -3 OVER

GiB DET
DET OL injuries


10/27 1:00 PM
213 NYG 53 *
214 PHI -6 under

GiB NYG
PHI QB Vick?
series split?


10/27 1:00 PM
215 CLE 39½ ***UNDER***
216 KC -7 *****

CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 1)
CLE QB Carousel
This should be -17½


10/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 50½ *
218 NO -12½ *UNDER

NO TE Graham starts?
CoB NO
this might be the most interesting game of the week
due to BUF HC Marrone (xNO OC 06-08)


10/27 1:00 PM
219 MIA 45½ *
220 NE -6½ *under

MIA OL shuffle? new LT, old LT->RT?
can NE cover? I expect MIA to lose due to errors
10/25 update: changed pick from MIA/OVER to MIA/UNDER


10/27 4:05 PM
221 NYJ 41 *
222 CIN -6½ *under*

NYJ just not as good/lucky on the road, but...
CIN CB Hall IR OFY


10/27 4:05 PM
223 PIT -3 *under?
224 OAK 40½ *

CoB OAK
This game could go over. ST play for both PIT and OAK are both down this year.


10/27 4:25 PM
225 WAS 58½ *
226 DEN -13 ***OVER***

WAS FS Meriweather OUT
WAS SS Doughty out?
GiB DEN
10/24 update: changed pick from DEN/OVER to WAS/OVER


10/27 4:25 PM
227 ATL 45 ******
228 ARI -2½ **over**

GiB ARI
ATL bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half
TO's will kill ARI chances



10/27 8:30 PM
229 GB -9½ *
230 MIN 46½ under

MIN QB Ponder returns (after 4 weeks)
MIN QB Carousel
MIN desperate moves @QB, but team isn't playing desperate


10/28 8:40 PM
231 SEA -10½ *
232 STL 42½ under

SEA FB Robinson returns
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 1)

2013 - week 08 - Thursday picks

10/24 8:25 PM
103 CAR -6½ *
104 TB 40 under

TB QB Glennon 4th start (preseason game 4)

CAR is getting a lot more national media attention. I do think they'll win, but will they cover?

One motivating factor for CAR will be last year's losses to TB. TB swept CAR LY as they had their 'number'.

What's different this year? TB QB and secondary as well as CAR D. I give an edge to CAR in this year's draft. TB's one saving grace is their ability to find vet's. I think CAR younger players from the past drafts are coming around and this game maybe a statement game for CAR. A win on the road against a hated division rival.

10/23 update: betting against TB in the 2nd half, seems to be a very good angle as they've scored only 1 TD in the second half.