ahem - end of season hiring - or yea! nay! wtf?

The good:
Let's go with the good news first, KC fans will be happy in the coming seasons. The staff being assembled is a proven commodity.


update 1/19
CLE is another unknown, they need more talent, appears to be good staff hires, but the draft will really tell the tale. They'll probably need at least two to three years beat highly competitive in their division






The bad:
I can't say the same for the staff with CHI, looks like bad O, with D and ST to carry the team, but I think ST will decline with the departure of Toub and the D is on the descent not ascent...  so next season will be crummy for bears fans


It doesn't look much better for BUF either, they picked up Crossman to coach ST again after last years season in DET, they were pathetic, allowing TDs and way too many yards. BUF has blinders on, this movement of the Syracuse staff to BUF maybe great for the coaching families, but not for the fans, who will suffer again.


The unknown (to be updated):
PHI is an unknown, lots of talent, can Kelly get them to gel quickly on O? and he needs a DC. I think they have some cap issues as well


JAC recent hire of Bradley is a bit curious as they suffer on O, but if he can solidy the D and get their ground game going again, they have a chance. Guess they'll be rebuilding for a couple of years at least



SD, I'm sitting on the fence at this time only the GM HC and OC hired so far. There is talent, just will they respond with new coaching staff?



ARI, again another late hiring with Arians, will he be able to build a decent staff in time? I'll admit I'm leaning toward good, but they let DC Ray Horton go to CLE, I guess they thought he would stay, ARI loss is CLE gain. Still they have some really good D players, would make who ever becomes their DC an easier job, than redoing/rebuilding

hear yea, hear all,

I couldn't have said it or written any better (I'm just okay at writing), Arthur Arkush and his 60 second rant (which in this case isn't a rant at all) on IND owner Jim Irsay and how it's worked out this year for the 'colts


1/17 update:
here's an interview (1/14) w/Ault (father of the pistol offense, retired 2012) and his former QB Kaepernick
some nice insights from an innovative mind. I noted the difference in O's w/Chip Kelly, I guess next year with PHI we'll see more run sweeps and then play action, maybe?...


and while we're on the subject of Chip Kelly, a nice little prediction at smartfootball.com on the raw materials of his up tempo O

2012 season AFC and NFC Championships

Click on the above image to access NFL .pdf file. What I noticed immediately was the records of common opponents. NE has beaten both common opponents (DEN, HOU) and BAL has loss to each opponent.
There a lot of stats that favor NE, TAKE/GIVE (aka Turnovers) +16 edge, OFFENSE +75yds edge, QBR +11. What else stands out? the number of close games that they have played, so you would expect another close game, but I don't think this one will be close. Last weekend BAL came out as the winner @DEN, but I thought it was due more to TO's and lack of coaching by DEN than to dominance by BAL, it was almost as if BAL was waiting for DEN errors. Last weekend watching NE I get the sense they are on a roll and will dictate on O, D and ST to BAL. I think this will be a blow out with NE O just running plays and speeding up the game getting the lead and forcing BAL to play catchup ball, which isn't there best scheme on O or D

Click on the above image to access NFL .pdf file. Of the common opponents SF only loss is to NYG (last years SB winner) who ATL beat and ATL only loss is to division rival NO who SF beat. This is a bit of a wash. On O there are small edges at best for both teams, what you do notice is that the leading receiver for ATL is TE Gonzalez and for SF WR Crabtree. SF does hold a signficant edge with Defense of about 70yds and ATL K Bryant is far more accurate than SF K Akers. Unlike the AFC game, these opponents have met only once in post season. What I noticed last week is that ATL is a lot like DEN in their conservative nature with playcalling and their willingness to wait and see if the other teams makes an error then they can get a shorter field and score. SF plays like a dominating team especially along OL and DL and they execute very well. It hard to see ATL winning even though they are at home. SF appears to be built to win on the road, they have a dominating D, strong ST and a run game for O. SF QB Kaepernick and Co would need to make several mistakes (TOs) to lose this game, but it's not likely.

1/16 additional thoughts:

Last week I had hoped SEA DE Irvin would have been more disruptive, but ATL LT (and LG) handled him quite well, as ATL had several long runs from their RBs. So their is a big drop off when SEA DE Clemons is not in the game as he was this past weekend due to injury.

This past weekend we got to watch SF DT Justin Smith return (from a three week injury layoff) and he did quite well, even while limited with his torn triceps, his strength along DL is so evident, that I don't think ATL LT and LG will have the same success this weekend, granted their QB is right handed so you think the pocket will tend to move to the right, but Smith and Smith are fully capable of beating their blocks and getting to QB with impressive closing speed.

ATL best move may be to run at Smith and Smith. I would run on the side of the injured arm, testing Smith's getting off of blocks and tackling ability again and again, until I notice a level of consistency. BTW I'd also do this to BAL MLB Lewis, though I admit this may be tougher to do versus BAL DL, but I'd probably test with a TE instead of with a RB, or a RB out in the middle flat area.

If ATL can't run at Smith and Smith, they'll need to find running space elsewhere, probably with scheme and play calling, create mismatches with other personnel then hit SF with running plays. Get SF to think pass and run instead, but this may be for naught as SF OL looked dominant vs GB DL/LBs and the same will probably hold true vs ATL DL/LBs.


update 1/17/2013 WIN-LOSS comparing records for the remaining teams:

NOTE: replacement referees used wks 1-3



NE
losses ARI wk2 @BAL wk3 @SEA wk6 SF wk15
DIV 6-0
in conference vs AFC S 4-0
peer games BAL(L), DEN(W) 1-1
out of conference vs NFC W 1-3


BAL
losses @PHI wk2 @HOU wk7 PIT wk13 @WAS wk14 DEN wk15 @CIN wk17
DIV 4-2
in conference vs AFC W 3-1
peer games NE(W), HOU(L) 1-1
out of conference vs NFC E 2-2


ATL
losses @NO wk10 @CAR wk14 TB wk17
DIV 3-3
in conference vs NFC E 4-0
peer games DET(W), ARI(W) 2-0
out of conference vs AFC W 4-0


SF
losses @MIN wk3 NYG wk6 @STL wk13 @SEA wk16
DIV 3-2-1 STL(tie) wk10
in conference vs NFC N 3-1
peer games NYG(L), NO(W) 1-1
out of conference vs AFC E 4-0   What stands out ... NE was able to dominate their division, SF also gave the goose egg to the AFC E ATL had the weakest peer games and had the weakest division record, but their only losses were to their division rivals, going 4-0 for their in conference games vs NFC E. BAL split their games vs NFC E NE, BAL and SF were 1-1 vs peers. The NFC appears to be better going 8-0 vs their AFC opponents this year. The AFC could only manage a 3-5 record vs NFC opponents. NE played the weakest in conference opponents, BAL the second weakest, ATL the third weakest   FYI: I ranked the conferences at the end of this year as (using QBrt - DQBrt over regular season): NFC W #1 NFC S #2 NFC N #3
AFC N #4
AFC E #5
NFC E #6
AFC W #7
AFC S #8
If I just added up the opponents conference ranking for each team (don't add peer games):
SF #9
NE #14
ATL #15
BAL #17

SF clearly had the toughest schedule, playing the #1, #3 and #5 conferences
NE played #5, #8, #1
ATL played #2, #6, #7
BAL played #4, #7, #6

But I'm still not feeling warm and fuzzy with this as the replacement refs were a factor, just how much I wasn't able to measure in a satisfactory method.   The BAL @NE game may come out to be a closer game than expected and the SF @ATL game may be more of a blowout

2012 - week 20 - Conference Championship picks

01/20 3:00 PM

301 SF -4 ***
302 ATL 48½ over

This will be SF QB Kaepernick first road playoff game, SF D and ST are playing well, if Kaepernick plays half as well as his first home game, they'll still beat ATL. ATL now has confidence with first playoff win. SF is a better team than last year when then lost to eventual SB champ NYG in a close game 'til Q4. ATL was stomped on last year in the playoffs, they may yet again get stomped on this year by SF


01/20 6:30 PM
303 BAL 51½ under
304 NE -9½ *

BAL lost to NE last year in playoffs, then returned favor to NE this season with a 1pt win at home.
Since that time, NE has acquired CB Talib and BAL has lost CB Webb. BAL will have Suggs back, but I don't believe it will be enough to counter NE O as they appear to be in sync and getting better. Meanwhile NE D as well is playing fairly well, BAL O isn't quite up to snuff and if BAL O can only hit the deep pass on the right side, you'd think NE would be able to scheme for that quite easily



On the W-L opponents records side,


SF (+2) @ATL (-40)

BAL (-2) @NE (-2)



Last weekend results SU and ATS:

BAL @DEN (team w/better opponents won SU, win SU and ATS)
GB @SF (team w/better opponents loss, loss SU loss ATS)
SEA @ATL (team w/better opponents loss, loss SU win ATS)
HOU @NE (team w/better opponents won SU, win SU and ATS)

so 2-2 SU and ATS

2012 - week 19 - results

All four games were OVER the total, the favorite was 3-1 SU (DEN loss) 2-2 ATS (DEN and ATL did not cover spread). My revised Super Bowl participants are now SF and NE.

The early games on Saturday and Sunday were worth watching, though on Sunday SEA HC Carrol makes a mistake by losing the ball on downs instead of kicking the FG, but ATL lets SEA back into the game with QB Ryan second interception of the game. Game notes below:

BAL @DEN

BAL wins a great game, DEN gets two ST TDs, a punt return and a kick return, BAL scores 2TDs after TO's by DEN QB Manning. At the end of regulation the game is tied 35-35, snow begins to fall as the temperature has continued to fall throughout the game and in the 2nd OT BAL scores a FG after getting another interception off of Manning and this one was Mannings fault. First interception could be placed on WR catching ability. BAL O played really well scoring 3TDs to the right side of field with WR Smith burning CB Bailey. DEN ST played really well, DEN D was suspect at times and their O wasn't given enough chances or wasn't trusted
Here's a view from nfl.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000125374/article/denver-broncos-john-fox-coached-not-to-lose-game

There were some curious officiating calls going against both teams

Hmmmmm.... "The Mile High Miracle", who've thought BAL could overcome all their late season woes and the greatness that Manning & Co. represented? This was perhaps the best D that Manning has ever been paired with, but clearly the secondary had issues in this game. BAL QB Flacco had 3TDs on the right side of the field all long throws.



GB @SF

SF QB Kaepernick gives up an interception returned for a TD early in the game, but recovers and delivers strikes to his WR's to win the game going away from the 3rd quarter.

GB muffed punt Q2, great field postion 11:43, SF scores TD pass to Crabtree
ties 14-14
Rodgers throws a mistake, SF starts just over mid-field
Rodgers-Jones hot pass 20+yd ties 21-21
SF gains edge with FG just before half 24-21
At the half, Rodgers and Co. are making more mistakes than SF
SF takes game over and GB just doesn't have enough, game is over by end of 3rd Q, though score is still close, GB intensity along OL and DL just isn't as much as SF.



SEA @ATL

After opening game jitters, ATL settles down gets a 13-0 lead, then SEA Carroll goes for it on 4th down instead of settling for the FG, SEA turns ball over on downs ATL uses momentum and marches down the field, scores with a 20-0 lead 4:16 left in the game and effectively the game is over. SEA w/o DE Clemons just can't stop run consistently. SEA secondary does play well, but the D seems to lose faith and ATL continues fairly sound play calling, though I wouldn't pick on CB Sherman, ATL does continue to have big gains with running plays. SEA killed itself with fumble and no score in last 2 min of half.

ATL QB Ryan has an early Q1 int, but Q4 int w/11:04 to go is a curious choice by Ryan. SEA scores brings game to 21-27. ATL goes 3 and out. SEA punts ATL punts, SEA moves ball, 12 men on field D penalty puts on ball on two yd line, 34 sec left, Lynch scores TD, PAT good 28-27.
ATL w/25 sec two passes gets them to the 30yd line, FG wins game 28-30, 8sec left, squib 6sec left
46yd, 2sec, hail mary intercepted. ATL closes game out, but its so close, too conservative with play calling in the 2nd half for me by ATL. ATL seem to lack a true killer instinct or that ability to put another team away, coaching??


HOU @NE

NE TE Gronkowski Q1 re-injured arm, seems to be the only significant note for this game. NE came out running plays fast (and adjusted very well after losing both RB Woodhead and TE early in Q1), HOU just couldn't keep up, they did play a lot better in Q1 (than prior game), but Q2 and Q3 were clearly NE. NE stretched their lead to 38-13 in Q4, NE plays alot of man with CB Talib on the field, once NE got the lead the game was over.

2012 - week 19 - Division - picks

Early thoughts:
HOU will need a lot of things to break their way to beat NE on the road. HOU O will need to be near flawless, I just can't see them having much success running or passing ball on NE D. This could be a laugher which is won't be good for the last game of the weekend

BAL D will face DEN O where the no-huddle is a staple. DEN will get TDs, I'm wondering if BAL D will be gassed by Q4. DEN D will have a much easier time vs BAL O which seems to lack an identity. BAL O needs to run more, they'll be facing an even tougher DL and secondary, pts may be hard to come by in this game for BAL.

GB is near full strength and their O is looking potent, they'll score on SF D
SF O needs to run and run more. They'll need to play keep away from Rodgers and Co. to have a chance to win. GB D stopped MIN run O, but MIN O blocking isn't as diverse as SF O blocking schemes. SF QB Kaepernick will need to have his best game yet this season. I'd give SF more of a chance if DL Justin Smith plays

SEA and ATL maybe without their best DE's in Clemons and Abraham, thus running game should be more effective for both teams. SEA CB Browner looked suspect after coming back from four game PED suspension. I expect SEA to be getting points. I'd take the road dog

Update with lines:

01/12 4:30 PM

109 BAL 45½ Under
110 DEN -8½ *

BAL coming off emo high and will need to play keep away (run, run and more run) to beat DEN

When DEN QB Manning was with IND he had a clear advantage over BAL

during play offs - see http://pfref.com/tiny/04b9E

and regular season http://pfref.com/tiny/BcY4j

note: season 2011 Manning did not play

DEN D is probably the best D that Manning has ever played with



01/12 8:00 PM
111 GB 45 *
112 SF -3 over

just thinking if GB D can stop SF run O they win this game


01/13 1:00 PM
113 SEA 46 *
114 ATL -2½ UNDER

Both D may be w/o their best DE

Both teams are run first, but SEA is more so than ATL

This is a strength on strength game - SEA D vs ATL O

but the more important matchup maybe SEA O vs ATL D

I'd give ST edge to SEA



01/13 4:30 PM
115 HOU 48½ UNDER
116 NE -9½ ***

HOU by far has been playing the worst of all the remaining teams, very difficult to take their side even with 10pts




Opponents Win-Loss (W-L) records - results and upcoming games:
Last weekend teams that had the tougher regular season schedule based on opponents W-L record went 3-1 SU/ATS

The lone loss was with MIN who announced a new QB 90 min prior to game. QB Webb had not thrown a pass during regular season, plus my guess was he didn't have enough snaps during practice prior to game. It really showed as he was either late with throws or made some very inaccurate throws


This week the tougher regular season opponents W-L matchups are:

BAL (-2) @DEN (-22)

GB (4) @SF (2)

SEA (2) @ATL (-40)

HOU (-2) @NE (-2)



So BAL and SEA have clear advantages

GB has a slight advantage

and its a tossup between HOU and NE

1/8 update: More stats straight from NFL

AFC division capsule: http://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/afc-divisional-caps.pdf

NFC division capsule http://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nfc-divisional-caps.pdf


    The BAL @DEN capsule doesn't have much meaningful stats IMO, but their is one that stands out and it's comparing the yards per game difference (O-D) 352.5 - 350.9 [BAL = 1.6yds/game] vs 397.9 - 290.8  [DEN = 107.1yds/game]. I look at it this way, BAL O will most likely sputter and DEN O will move the ball and score at least FGs, but more likely TDs. BAL did have a tougher opponent schedule this season than DEN, but so did HOU and NE and look at their yards per game difference (HOU = 372.1 - 323.3 = 48.8 yds/g) (NE = 427.9 - 373.3 = 54.6 yds/g). Why doesn't BAL have something similiar? I would expect somewhere around 50yds/g O-D difference, but BAL is nearly 50 yds/g below expectations and DEN over 50 yds/game above expectations. This game will most likely be BAL MLB Lewis last game and it won't be pretty. DEN should dominate and cover the spread, if they score too much (DEN D may score off of TO's) the game will go over the total.   I would normally expect a close game with HOU @NE, but HOU O has been sputtering this past month and NE will have Gronk back. Unless NE TE's get the dropsies, this game will be another run away game, hopefully staying under the total.   Looking at the GB @SF game in the same light, SF has an edge (GB 22.6, SF 67.4) but with QB Kaepernick at the helm, they just aren't as effective and the offense doesn't run through TE Davis with RB Gore a solid threat. Add in the injury to Justin Smith and SF w/o the combo of Smith & Smith (Alex, Justin) will not be able to reach their lofty goal. GB appears to be returning to full strength, can you really look at this game in any other way? Sure SF has 'home field advantage', I just don't it'll be enough to get the win.   SEA @ATL, yards per game difference SEA 44.4 ATL 3.5, SEA is near expectations, ATL is far below, couple this with tougher opponent schedule (see playoff teams W-L record comparison) and SEA is the clear choice.

2012 - week 18 - results

Linesmaker have correctly picked the favorite in each game, and each game has gone under the total.

Favorite and under combo sweeps the weekend

MIN and IND w/late changes to personnel (MIN QB Webb starts and IND QB coach Christensen does OC duty) were too much for either team to overcome and it's reflected in the scores where GB and BAL won by greater than two TD's.

WAS may have been served better if backup QB Cousins had started, as after initial emotional high Q1, their O sputtered and SEA showed the type of resolve to win the game, after losing their best DE player Clemons in Q3

CIN @HOU,
Both teams start out punting, looks like a D battle, HOU had first possession. Notably out of position is CIN MLB Maulauga, Q1 HOU TE just looks quicker, short area, Q2 HOU RB Foster just makes him look bad. I think the closer to the line of scrimmage that he is, the better he plays, anything else, he just doesn't have the quickness required in the short area .
CIN CB Hall makes the play of the game so far returning an interception for a TD. CIN TE Gresham had the dropsies in Q1 and CIN QB Dalton just not making good decision, very lucky a throw was not intercepted by HOU D. CIN RB Green-Ellis is doing well.
HOU QB Shaub is intercepted in Q2. A very bad throw and it's returned for a TD, he still has accuracy issues.
HOU ST Q3 KO error doesn't hurt it. CIN ST punting team makes mental error, they appear to be tense
CIN O punts in starting Q3 it doesn't look good for them. HOU D is much more aggressive, HOU O marches down field and scores TD, TE Daniels injury?
CIN O 2nd drive of Q3 is looking good, 6 consecutive passes, 4 to WR Green (3 caught, 1out of bounds), drive stalls/ends w/FG (odd why does Kubiak challenge incomplete pass?)
HOU O next drive ends up punting, again CIN ST looking shaky, punt almost muffed.
CIN O next drive is disrupted by HOU DE Watt, but D make mental error, again CIN O runs on first down, intercepted by CB Joseph on next play.
HOU O starts in FG range, run, pass, pass (TE Daniels catches middle pass), pass, run, pass, FG (holding penalty somewhere before that).
CIN ST nice return, CIN O quick throw, run determined, pass incomplete, pass, run, 4th down, run = 1st down, deep pass incomplete, late, wants too pass, but runs, pass, FG
HOU O pass, run, pass, pass, pass, punt
CIN O pass, run, wants too pass, but runs, timeout, O penalty no play, pass - D penalty, pass, run, pass incomplete, deep pass incomplete, arggh TV reception, pass incomplete? downs?
HOU O run, run, pass D penalty, run, run, knee - game over

I guess you can say HOU owns CIN w/2nd straight playoff win. End of game thoughts - CIN seems ill prepared on O, decent on D (D out scored O 7-6), tense execution on ST at times. HOU D played really well (Watt) O seemed to just survive, and at times ST was tense as well
BTW really nice broadcast team w/Mayock and ?

MIN @GB
Late news: MIN QB Webb to start (annonced 90 min prior to game), QB Ponder injured elbow/triceps

MIN O runs and runs and runs, running all over GB D, QB Webb runs 2x, Peterson the rest, all the way to the 15yd line before an O timeout, pass incomplete, FG

GB O punts, MIN O runs, pass to TE, pass incomplete, punts, GB O run, run, run, D-penalty, pass pass run, pass run pass run pass TD
MIN O punts, GB O cross mid field, punts, MIN O punts, GB O makes 4th down count FG
MIN O punts GB Walden having a great game, MIN O needs to run more
GB O rush TD, Rodgers is smiling, this game is in the bag
MIN O

Q3
GB O
rest of game who cares?

Game thoughts MIN went away from run O too soon, too much passing, first drive was run O, every drive after that lots of passing QB Webb lacks accuracy, out of synch w/WRs. MIN D was picked apart slowly but surely by GB O, GB owned game by mid Q2

Loved the live streaming (though it's about a play behind broadcast tv, should've tried first), wish Sunday's games were streamed as well


IND @BAL
late news IND OC Arians hospitalized, QB coach Christensen calling plays on sideline

@the end of half
BAL D in near constant blitzing mode, BAL O needs to feed Ray Rice
IND D plays well, IND O QB Luck is withstanding the blitz, making plays, only ST needs noticeable help
you would think BAL O would have an advantage vs IND D, but BAL O needs to feed Ray Rice more
Somehow MLB Lewis drops a gift interception, seems to be his only mistake in first half, though you could see a couple of times he was caught up in the 'wash'
I think they don't need to give ball to RB Pierce, feed RB Rice, ride your stud RB

Q3
BAL TD, IND FG, not a good trade off, but IND O is moving ball with no-huddle O, keeps blitzing down, wish they had started no-huddle earlier.
BAL gets the win, IND looks like the best young team

SEA @WAS
which rookie QB will advance?

SEA O starts out oddly with 3 straight passes, SEA D is also contained on the edge allowing big runs by WAS O. WAS QB Griffen is limping, SEA D shouldn't worry about running QB. Emo edge early on with WAS, SEA withstands it and comes back nicely 13-14 @half.

Q3
SEA opening drive ends with a fumble, DE Clemons injured on next series, things aren't looking good for SEA, but WAS O punts.
SEA punts next 2 possessions and so does WAS, finally SEA scores on a rush TD, follows with a pass for a 2pt PAT and the game is officially on SEA side, even officials seem to overlook a penalty of pass interference on SEA D later on in Q4. WAS O lost steam after Q1 and perhaps they would have been better served with backup QB Cousins starting, QB Griffin injured in Q4, two bad snaps by WAS C and QB Cousins makes a couple of good passes, but not enough to comeback and win