2014 - week 13 - the rest of the weekend picks

well here goes... nothing..

11/30 1:00 PM
451 WAS 51½ over
452 IND -9½ ***

WAS ST Captain, Hayward IR OFY
WAS QB McCoy starts



11/30 1:00 PM
453 TEN 42½ under
454 HOU -6½ **

TEN LT? RT? new C?
HOU QB FtizPatrick starts



11/30 1:00 PM
455 CLE 40½ over
456 BUF -2½ *

CLE FS Gipson OUT 
(CLE lost LB Dansby last week)



11/30 1:00 PM
457 SD 45½ under
458 BAL -5½ ***



11/30 1:00 PM
459 NYG -2½ *
460 JAC 44½ UNDER



11/30 1:00 PM
461 CIN -3½ **
462 TB 44 over



11/30 1:00 PM
463 OAK 42½ *UNDER*
464 STL -6½ *

OAK 2ndary banged up



11/30 1:00 PM
465 NO 53½ under
466 PIT -4½ **

NO inj's OL/DL, WR, 2ndary



11/30 1:00 PM
467 CAR 42½ *under*
468 MIN -2½ *

MIN RT Loadhold IR



11/30 4:05 PM
469 ARI -2½ *
470 ATL 44½ under



11/30 4:25 PM
471 NE 58½ *OVER*
472 GB -3 *



11/30 8:30 PM
473 DEN -2½ over
474 KC 49½ *



12/01 8:30 PM
475 MIA -6½ ***
476 NYJ 41½ UNDER

NYJ DE Wilkerson OUT
NYJ QB Smith starts

2014 - week 13 - TNF - picks

Thanksgiving weekend...

I'm picking more on instinct than anything else as I've had very little time to go thru week 12 games...
If I have the time, I'll be back to refine my picks....

11/27 12:30 PM
305 CHI 47½ UNDER
306 DET -7 *

11/27 4:30 PM
307 PHI 56½ *
308 DAL -3½ under

11/27 8:30 PM
309 SEA 39½ UNDER
310 SF -1½ *

2014 - week 12 - results

Ouch, missed another TNF pick, OAK breaks their 0-fer streak and wins the first half in a RAIN deluge. The game drys out in Q3 but it's not enough for KC as OAK takes control of the game. Really nice home upset for OAK. KC OL was having a tough time in the first half.

As far as the rest of the weekend I did fairly well ATS and for totals...

DIV games:
GB @MIN, DAL @NYG, (closer than expected)
NYJ @BUF, (bigger blowout than expected - though with the venue and time change MNF @DET, this game had more variables, there was also the snow storm for BUF and 'less practice time', I wonder if the more rest thing for BUF players was truly the beneficial angle that wasn't mention by the media)

InterConference games:
TB @CHI - a curious game CHI scores 21 pts all in Q3, the rest of the game CHI doesn't do much...
WAS @SF - highly surprising as a much closer game than expected, WAS played UP and SF DOWN

2014 - week 12  results

2014 - week 12 - the rest of the week - picks

CoB
BAL DAL JAC NYJ

11/23 1:00 PM
251 CLE 47 *
252 ATL -3 over


11/23 1:00 PM
253 TEN 48½ UNDER
254 PHI -11 *

11/23 1:00 PM
255 DET 48 UNDER
256 NE -7 **

11/23 1:00 PM
257 GB -9½ **
258 MIN 48½ UNDER

?SUB FREEZING?


11/23 1:00 PM
259 JAC 50½ under
260 IND -14 *

11/23 1:00 PM
261 CIN 43½ *
262 HOU -1½ *UNDER*

11/23 1:00 PM
263 NYJ 39 *
264 BUF -3½ OVER

due to snow, game moved to DET MON
NIGHT FOOTBALL



11/23 1:00 PM
265 TB 46½ *
266 CHI -5½ under
 
?RAIN 70%?WINDY 20MPH?


11/23 4:05 PM
267 ARI 42 under
268 SEA -6½ *

11/23 4:05 PM
269 STL 43½ ***
270 SD -5 under

11/23 4:25 PM
271 MIA 48½ *
272 DEN -7 *under*

WC 27

11/23 4:25 PM
273 WAS 44 UNDER
274 SF -9 *****

11/23 8:30 PM
275 DAL -3½ *
276 NYG 47½ OVER

11/24 8:30 PM
277 BAL 50 ****
278 NO -3½ under

2014 - week 12 - TNF - picks

hmmm, what to say???

11/20 8:25 PM
109 KC -7 *
110 OAK 42½ **UNDER**

could you really look at the home team?

2014 - week 11 - results

Yeah I probably put too much thought into TNF game. I should've picked under w/two D teams, but I was correct for nearly 3Q as BUF was winning ATS for much of the game, but MIA turned it on mid-way thru Q3 and took over the game. BUF O was stifled and their D played well except for dumb plays, like bumping the ref. Really stupid, to give yourself a chance on the road you have to play smart, nearly penalty free for a team like BUF, who have red zone woes.  I didn't give MIA much of a chance since they just lost their LT Albert and their starting CB Finnegan. On 4 days notice, shuffled their O line and won, that in itself is impressive especially against a very active DL like BUF which got 5 sacks for the game and 6 QB hits. Their new CB Taylor started his first game in his second season of the NFL and did fairly well, though play calling and execution by BUF O is still lacking... I'll say it QB Orton has regressed to the point he's just like his rival QB Manuel...

2014 - week 11 - results

As you can see just a .500 ATS week and slightly above .500 for totals....

2014 - week 11 - the rest of the week - picks

CoB
HOU IND MIN NE SD WAS

GiB
CAR PIT

11/16 1:00 PM
451 HOU 42 UNDER
452 CLE -3 *

HOU QB Mallet starts
HOU RB Foster ?
HOU CoB



11/16 1:00 PM
453 MIN 46½ **
454 CHI -3 OVER

MIN CoB



11/16 4:25 PM
455 PHI 55 under?
456 GB -5½ *

strength vs strength game
GB O vs PHI D



11/16 1:00 PM
457 SEA 42½ over
458 KC -1½ *

SEA DT Mebane IR OFY
nearly identical L4G O and D eff stats



11/16 1:00 PM
459 ATL 46½ *
460 CAR -1½ OVER

CAR GiB
CAR D is good for QBrating



11/16 1:00 PM
461 CIN 50 under
462 NO -7 *

CIN O trending DOWN



11/16 1:00 PM
463 TB 45½ under
464 WAS -7 *

WAS CoB
TB will need to surprise everyone to win
WAS D 13%> TB D
WAS O 11%> TB D



11/16 1:00 PM
465 DEN -9½ *
466 STL 51 UNDER

STL QB Hill starts
STL O trending DOWN
STL O needs a spark or ???



11/16 1:00 PM
467 SF -4 ****
468 NYG 43½ under?

NYG D trending DOWN



11/16 4:05 PM
469 OAK 44½ *
470 SD -10 over

SD CoB
just a hunch OAK should be playing hard for this game, trying to avoid the series
sweep



11/16 4:25 PM
471 DET 41½ *
472 ARI -1½ ***UNDER***

ARI QB Palmer IR OFY
ARI QB Stanton starts



11/16 8:30 PM
473 NE 58 *
474 IND -3 **over**

NE CoB
IND CoB
Playoff preview?


11/17 8:30 PM
475 PIT -6 *****
476 TEN 47 UNDER

PIT GiB
TEN TE Walker OUT?
TEN QB Mettenberger 3rd start

2014 - week 11 - TNF - picks

Whhoooops, forgot to post pick for TNF... and I outsmarted myself.... sigh...

11/13 8:25 PM
309 BUF 42 *
310 MIA -6 over

BUF 3-0 L3G vs MIA

2014 - week 10 - results

My best results so far this season and I'm getting closer to the season ATS .500 region.
PIT @NYJ, did surprise me a bit, guess I should have looked at the numbers harder and I would've notice'd PIT road record, which hasn't been good this season. Combine that with NYJ QB Vick performance from week 9 and I could've easily picked NYJ at home w/an efficient Vick at QB. The one thing that really stands out is that NYJ sat down their rookie safety Pryor and started a 3yr NFL veteran Jarrett. Though he doesn't have many starts prior to this game, he did play in more than enough games with NYJ 13 and PHI 11-12 seasons. Hindsight is 20-20 and it really looks like Jarrett should have started the season, but I guess those in charge at NYJ chose to see if their rookie pick would stand up, but after 9 weeks they gave up on their rookie experiment.

Other games of note, I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that MIA is 0-5 SU @DET, now make it 0-6.
The SF at NO game is a bit of a head scratcher for me as well and if you didn't notice NFC South is 1-3 for this past weekend (someone had to win the ATL at TB tilt) and ATL swept their division series.

2014 - week 10 - results

2014 - week 10 - the rest of the weekend - picks

CoB
ATL BUF CHI DET GB TEN

GiB
BAL DAL JAC NYJ

trying something new... well at least for me...

11/09 1:00 PM
251 DAL -7 ****
252 JAC 45 *UNDER*

@Wembley Stadium, London, England
DAL GiB
JAC GiB
JAC O needs to make a leap for me to pick



11/09 1:00 PM
253 MIA 43½ **
254 DET -3 under

DET CoB
DET WR Johnson returns (missed 4 wks)



11/09 1:00 PM
255 KC -2½ ***
256 BUF 41½ OVER

BUF CoB



11/09 1:00 PM
257 SF 48½ over
258 NO -4½ *

Offenses heading in opposite directions
Defenses also? if so NO holds edge



11/09 1:00 PM
259 TEN 44 UNDER
260 BAL -10 *

TEN CoB
BAL GiB
TEN QB Mettenberger (2nd start)
It's clear BAL should win SU, will they win ATS?



11/09 1:00 PM
261 PIT -5 ***
262 NYJ 45½ OVER

NYJ GiB



11/09 1:00 PM
263 ATL -2½ ***
264 TB 46 *under*

ATL CoB
TB QB McCown starts
?QB carousel?



11/09 4:05 PM
265 DEN -11½ *
266 OAK 49½ over



11/09 4:25 PM
267 STL 43 OVER
268 ARI -7 *



11/09 4:25 PM
269 NYG 44½ *under*
270 SEA -9 *

NYG overall dinged up
SEA OL dinged up
really tempted to take pts
changed pick back to SEA/Under from NYG/Under



11/09 8:30 PM
271 CHI 53 OVER
272 GB -7½ **

CHI CoB
GB CoB



11/10 8:30 PM
273 CAR 48 UNDER
274 PHI -6 *

CAR OL 'their worst OL ever'
PHI OL shuffle, LG/RG
PHI QB Sanchez starts

2014 - week 10 - TNF - picks

CLE has had close games vs it's division rivals this year, expect another one vs CIN...

11/06 8:25 PM
109 CLE 45 *
110 CIN -6 UNDER

2014 - week 09 - results

TNF, CAR is now 1-4 and NO 5-4 SU, unsure what their ATS records are for TNF. I reviewed teams performances over this season at home for CAR and on the road for NO and thought under was appropriate. Those last 2 1/2 minutes of Q2 really killed any of CAR chances. If CAR is to get any better, their QB Newton really needs to learn to throw with more touch on his 'short' throws.

Ouch another week of sub .500 ATS (6-7) and just above .500 for totals (7-6) sigh....

2014 - week 09 - results

For the season, I'm now slightly above .500 for Totals and sinking fast ATS....

2014 - week 09 - the rest of the weekend picks

a bit late posting...

11/02 1:00 PM
451 SD 45 *
452 MIA -2½ over

SD CB Verett OUT
TO dif SD +4 MIA +2



11/02 1:00 PM
453 JAC 43 *
454 CIN -11 under

CIN WLB Burfict OUT
CIN MLB Maualuga OUT?
CIN SU @home 12-0-1



11/02 1:00 PM
455 TB 43½ *UNDER*
456 CLE -6½ ****

?COLD? GAME, WC=33?
TB trades safety Barron to STL (odd?)
and LB Casilla to NE
TO dif TB-4 CLE+6
TB OL 10 sacks L2G 'ole', no push for R



11/02 1:00 PM
457 WAS 43½ under
458 MIN -1 *

GUSTY? WINDS
TO dif WAS -8 MIN -1
xCIN OC WAS HC Gruden
xCIN DC MIN HC Zimmer
WAS QB Griffin starts?



11/02 1:00 PM
459 PHI -2 over
460 HOU 48½ *

TO dif PHI -7 HOU +4



11/02 1:00 PM
461 NYJ 41½ under
462 KC -10 *

NYJ QB Vick starts
KC QB Smith shoulder? out?
TO dif NYJ -15 KC -2



11/02 1:00 PM
463 ARI 46½ *
464 DAL -3½ over

TO dif ARI +9 DAL -2



11/02 4:05 PM
465 STL 44 UNDER
466 SF -10 ****

STL LT, WR IR OFY
STL injuries to RG, RT
STL OL shuffle
TO dif STL-3 SF +4



11/02 4:25 PM
467 DEN -3 *
468 NE 54½ OVER

WC=29? WIND 10-20
TO dif DEN +4 NE +11
NE 13-0 @home reg season



11/02 4:25 PM
469 OAK 43 UNDER
470 SEA -15½ *

TO dif OAK -7 SEA +1



11/02 8:30 PM
471 BAL -1 OVER
472 PIT 48 *

WC=32? WIND 6-11
BAL RCB Smith OUT
TO dif BAL 0 PIT +1



11/03 8:30 PM
473 IND -3 *
474 NYG 51 under

TO dif IND -1 NYG 0