2014 - week 09 - TNF - picks

not really into this game.... since it's on NFL Network I can't watch it live... sigh...

10/30 8:25 PM
301 NO -3 under
302 CAR 49½ *

no real reason as to why, I take the home team and the under.

2014 - week 08 - results

Ouch!, really sucked ATS going 4-11, I was above .500 for totals, but this is making it tough to get above .500 ATS.

2014 - week 08 - results

2014 - week 08 - the rest of the weekend picks

Generally teams that lose their Center, tend to lose their next game and SEA and CLE held true to form, only SD did not follow suit this season...  did any else notice that ATL has lost their Center?


Going into Bye week (GiB) = ATL BUF CHI DET GB TEN
Coming off Bye week (CoB) = PHI TB

10/25 update watching SEA @STL week 07, you notice that STL O can run on SEA D. Maybe STL is playing way UP for the SB champs, but if not, then STL has turned the corner and SEA has too many injuries to overcome.
Changing pick STL @KC from KC/Over to STL/Over

10/26 9:30 AM
251 DET -4 ***
252 ATL 46½ UNDER

DET GiB
ATL C Konz IR OFY
ATL free fall, injuries...



10/26 1:00 PM
253 MIN 42 *
254 TB -3 UNDER

TB CoB
TB ST??
conservative O's?
edge MIN D



10/26 1:00 PM
255 CHI 50 *over*
256 NE -6 *

CHI GiB
CHI turmoil?
NE injuries?
NE plays well at home, will they cover?



10/26 1:00 PM
257 STL 43½ *
258 KC -7 *over

KC returns for a home game, the fans will be UP as it's been 3 weeks between games. Both teams coming off impressive wins, KC @SD, SEA @STL
10/25 changed pick from KC/Over to STL/Over


10/26 1:00 PM
259 SEA -5 *
260 CAR 44½ ***OVER***

SEA D has given up 28,30,17,20,30 L5G
CAR D has given up 38,37,24,38,37 L5G
I'm thinking SEA w/2 consecutive losses will be more focused



10/26 1:00 PM
261 BUF 40½ *UNDER*
262 NYJ -3 *

BUF GiB
BUF RB's Jackson and Spiller OUT
two run teams??? or just BUF?



10/26 1:00 PM
263 MIA -6 UNDER
264 JAC 43 *

MIA can't get a good ID on them, they've surprised with their G1 win over NE and not much else. MIA should win, but I suspect TO's will keep this game closer.
JAC has been steadily progressing over the past 7 games and finally getting a win last week. Has JAC crested? reached their plateau? or is their more?



10/26 1:00 PM
265 HOU -2 *
266 TEN 42½ UNDER

TEN GiB
TEN QB Mettenberger starts (rookie)
Mentally for TEN, since this game will mark the halfway point of the season, I don't see this as a good sign, more of a we gotta see what we have with our rookie QB



10/26 1:00 PM
267 BAL 45½ ****
268 CIN -1½ under

CIN O-n-D inj's
BAL should split their series as CIN Won the first game...



10/26 4:05 PM
269 PHI 48 *
270 ARI -2½ ***OVER***

PHI CoB
ARI has a talented 2ndary, PHI should run the ball more. But this game appears to be in the 12-13 possession realm for each team. If it each team scores on 4 possessions (roughly 1/3) this should go easily over the total



10/26 4:25 PM
271 IND -3 ***
272 PIT 48½ *OVER*

PIT has to play keep away from IND to win, which I don't think they can do



10/26 4:25 PM
273 OAK 44 *****
274 CLE -7 under

OAK OLB Woodley IR OFY
OAK appears to be progressing and I think CLE is regressing due to injuries...



10/26 8:30 PM
275 GB 55½ *****
276 NO -1½ *OVER*

GB GiB
NO better than NFL average, but GB is nearing elite range. NO w/2 wins is better than many 3 and 4 wins teams, it's just running into a buzzsaw w/GB



10/27 8:30 PM
277 WAS 50 under
278 DAL -9 *****

unless WAS QB McCoy brings alot more consistency to their O, this game should be a blowout even if it's a division rivalry game

2014 - week 08 - TNF - picks

I've been busy, but looks like I'll be able to post prior to game...
I'm going against the OVER trend and even though this is a division rivalry game, I'm giving up the points...

10/23 8:25 PM
103 SD 51½ *UNDER*
104 DEN -8 *

SD appears to be beat up

2014 - week 07 - results

The favorite/over trend for TNF ended this week, with NYJ run O having their way for the most part until they got inside of the 20. Call NYJ a 20's team...

OK results, but I could've been better, well at least I'm over .500 ATS and Totals...

2014 - week 07 - results

2014 - week 07 - the rest of the weekend picks

10/18 update changed pick from JAC/Under to CLE/Over

10/19 1:00 PM
451 CIN 49½ OVER
452 IND -3 **



10/19 1:00 PM
453 TEN 45½ OVER
454 WAS -5½ *

WAS QB Griffin returns



10/19 1:00 PM
455 MIA 48 under
456 CHI -3 *



10/19 1:00 PM
457 CLE -5 **
458 JAC 45 *over*

changed pick from JAC/Under to CLE/Over



10/19 1:00 PM
459 SEA -7 *
460 STL 43½ UNDER



10/19 1:00 PM
461 CAR 49 *
462 GB -7 **OVER**



10/19 1:00 PM
463 ATL 49½ UNDER
464 BAL -7 ***



10/19 1:00 PM
465 MIN 42½ ***UNDER***
466 BUF -5½ *



10/19 1:00 PM
467 NO 48½ *
468 DET -3 *UNDER*



10/19 4:05 PM
469 KC 44½ OVER
470 SD -4 ***



10/19 4:25 PM
471 NYG 48 UNDER
472 DAL -6 ****



10/19 4:25 PM
473 ARI -3½ *
474 OAK 44½ OVER



10/19 8:30 PM
475 SF 50½ OVER
476 DEN -6½ *



10/20 8:30 PM
477 HOU 44½ *
478 PIT -3½ over

2014 - week 07 - TNF - picks

So why not stick with the Favorite/Over combo trend???

10/16 8:25 PM
303 NYJ 44½ OVER
304 NE -9½ **

?RAIN?

2014 - week 06 - results

The Favorite/Over combo won again for TNF, this must be killing the sports books at the local casinos. I wonder when will they start increasing the spread to better than a TD + FG? So why didn't I take the over, I was thinking along the lines that HOU O would shuffle along. I didn't expect the first half outburst by IND. HOU O did become predictable again when Fitzpatrick had to make a play to win at the end of the game, you knew it was going to happen.

My pre-weekend thoughts:
I wonder if STL run D will put up a fight vs SF run O? Will CAR @CIN be interesting? I'm thinking ATL is such a homer team. Will ARI with all their injuries finally succumb? Will PHI luck run out? Will CLE luck run out? DET @MIN, Caldwell and Co @Zimmer and Co...  Will BUF shutdown NE?


Ouch! I was doing fine with the first 5 games, but then I was stomped upon by ATS and total gods...
NE decides it owns the AFC East, BUF is a pretender
CLE dog pound is barking up a storm, PIT will be lucky to be 8-8 SU this season
CAR at CIN ending in a tie, CAR O on the road surprising me
GB at MIA game much closer than anticipated same goes for SD at OAK
DAL pulls off a shocker at SEA
CHI with an entire new LB corp starting, wins on the road, ATL will be lucky to get to 8-8 SU as well
ARI also with new starters and return of QB Palmer, shows great depth
NYG falls on it's face on SNF - really ugly, embarrassing for them

2014 - week 06 - results

2014 - week 06 - the rest of the weekend picks

a short week for me as I'll be busy Saturday and Sunday, sigh... thus this early posting....

CoB
MIA OAK

GiB
PHI TB


10/12 1:00 PM
251 DEN 9½ *
252 NYJ 47½ under




10/12 1:00 PM
253 PIT 47 *
254 CLE -1½ ***OVER***

CLE NT Taylor OUT
CLE OLB/DE Kruger OUT? back?
CLE CB Haden OUT? hip?
CLE DE Winn OUT? leg?
Normally I just go with the season split for division games and since PIT won the first game at home, CLE should win this game right? But I'm taking a chance... 


10/12 1:00 PM
255 JAC 43 *
256 TEN -4 over

SHOWERS?
TEN LT Roos IR OFY
TEN LT Lewan starts (rookie)
TEN SS Pollard IR OFY



10/12 4:25 PM
257 CHI 54½ *OVER*
258 ATL -3 *



10/12 1:00 PM
259 GB -3½ ***
260 MIA 49 over

MIA SS Jones returns (susp'd 4G)



10/12 1:00 PM
261 DET 43½ *
262 MIN -1½ *under*

I keep flip-flop'g with this game, no real feel for either team



10/12 1:00 PM
263 CAR 43½ UNDER
264 CIN -6½ *

CAR lucky last week?
CIN WR Green OUT?



10/12 1:00 PM
265 NE -3 over
266 BUF 45½ *



10/12 1:00 PM
267 BAL -3 *
268 TB 43 over



10/12 4:05 PM
269 SD -7 ***
270 OAK 43 under



10/12 4:25 PM
271 DAL 47 over
272 SEA -8 *



10/12 4:25 PM
273 WAS 45½ *
274 ARI -3 *under

ARI DEx2 OUT
ARI QB Logan starts?
ARI beat up...



10/12 8:30 PM
275 NYG 50½ *****
276 PHI -3 over

NYG RB Jennings OUT
PHI ILBx2,LG,C,STx2 OUT 



10/13 8:30 PM
277 SF -3½ *
278 STL 43½ under

2014 - week 06 - TNF - picks

This week a division match up...
I'm unsure if HOU will score more than 10-13pts...

10/09 8:25 PM
101 IND -3 *
102 HOU 46½ *UNDER*

2014 - week 05 - results

Another TNF blow out game. The home team is 4-1 SU this year
The winner is easily covering the spread with at least a 20 pt win.

GB 16  @SEA 36  HFO
PIT 6  @BAL 26  HFU
TB 14  @ATL 56  HFO
NYG 45 @WAS 14  RDO
MIN 10 @GB 42   HFO

That's 4 wins for the home team, the favored and OVER the total. If you had made separate bets for Home, Favored and Over, you would've won all three for 3 of the past 5 weeks, won two in week 2 and won 1 in week 4. That's a really good winning percentage for winning 12 of 15 bets.

I know, I know most people would not bet three separate bets on TNF and choose instead to bet just two bets, either HO or FO, but you would still have an impressive winning percentage on 8 of 10 bets.

As for my picks, I picked the total correctly for weeks 1,2,4 and I've picked the side correctly for weeks 3-5. Only for week 4 did I pick both the side and total correctly. So I'm 6 of 10 so far, not bad, but could be better.

This year for whatever reason, I think I'm picking the sides better, but I'm just not zoned in on the totals, really odd or maybe it's a combination of new officiating crews (the biggest turnover in decades that I can recall), the enforcement of the holding calls and new rules, plus really watching only the TNF and SNF editions live (MNF are iffy for me) of NFL football.

2014 - week 05 - results

This season it took me until week 05 to post a record (W-L) over .500 ATS and for totals as well.

As for the season totals, I'm just below .500 ATS and just over .500 for the totals, so am I really doing better ATS this season? hmmmm... I think I'll reserve judgement until we reach the season's halfway point.

I'm L/L for both BAL @IND and ARI @DEN. ARI starting QB was injured during the game and their backup QB stunk it up, DEN just rode big MO the rest of the way...  As for BAL I wonder if this is just a down week or have some issues caught up with them? IND is looking like a formidable threat to make more than just first round noise in the playoffs this year. DEN is already there and SD if they can stay healthy looks to be a top contender as well for the AFC

I did have 5 games of W/W ATS/totals and the rest were split either W/L or L/W.

Teams Coming off a Bye (CoB) week have a 2-4 W-L SU record and a 3-3 W-L ATS record

Teams Going into a Bye (GiB) week have a 1-1 W-L SU record and a 1-1 W-L ATS record, so far this season team GiB have split 4-4 SU and ATS records. So no trending at all for the 7 GiB teams and it doesn't look like there will be any advantage tracking CoB's as well.

3Game/4Game streaks for week 5

The underlined header is the angle/type of bet, for instance;

over/3G/ = 3 game streak of over the total for the team(s) listed below
home/3G/ = 3 game streak of the home team winning ATS for the team(s) listed below
fav/3G/ = 3 game streak of the favorite winning for the team(s) listed below
ATSwin/3G/ = 3 game streak of ATS win for the team(s) listed below

over over
3G 4G
CLE
IND
JAC
WAS


under under
3G 4G
CIN BUF
DEN SF
DET
ARI


home home
3G 4G
SEA ATL
 NO


road road
3G 4G
NYJ CHI
OAK
STL


fav fav
3G 4G
BAL JAC
 DET


dog dog
3G 4G
PHI KC
SF


ATSwin ATSwin
3G 4G
CIN SD
BAL
KC
DAL


ATSloss ATSloss
3G 4G
TEN JAC
SF
DEN(0-2-1)

(DEN doesn't really have a 3 game streak of losing ATS, but they also don't have a 3 game streak for winning either)

Coincidental?
KC @SF, this weekend, will KC win the $?

BUF @DET, a 3 game and a 4 game UNDER the total streak

ARI @DEN, 3 game UNDER the total streak (x2)

STL @PHI, a 3 game road streak and a 3 game dog streak, will STL win the $?


One of these streaks will be broken:
Either - NYJ 3G road streak or SD 4G ATSwin streak
Either - BAL 3G favorite streak or BAL 3G ATS win streak

2014 - week 05 - the rest of the weekends picks

Coming off bye COB
ARI CIN CLE DEN SEA STL

10/05 1:00 PM
451 CHI 45½ *
452 CAR -2½ over

CHI starters returning?
CHI DE Allen returns
CAR RB Reaves starts? or is it Ogbonnaya?



10/05 1:00 PM
453 CLE 44½ *
454 TEN -1½ under

CLE COB
CLE RB Tate starts?
TEN QB Locker starts (coming off wrist injury)



10/05 1:00 PM
455 STL 48 over
456 PHI -7 *

STL QB Davis starts
STL COB
PHI RT Johnson returns (from susp)



10/05 1:00 PM
457 ATL 50½ under
458 NYG -4 *****

ATL OL shuffle x3?
ATL WR Jones? ST Hester?
ATL LB Shembo? FS Ishmael?



10/05 1:00 PM
459 TB 48½ ****
460 NO -10½ over

TB looks like a lot of points
NO plays better at home
NO O and D need to play a complete game



10/05 1:00 PM
461 HOU 46½ under
462 DAL -6 *



10/05 1:00 PM
463 BUF 44 under
464 DET -7 **

BUF QB Orton starts
BUF DT Williams? WLB Bradham?



10/05 1:00 PM
465 BAL 48½ ***
466 IND -3½ over

IND FS Landry susp'd 4G



10/05 1:00 PM
467 PIT -6½ ****
468 JAC 47 UNDER



10/05 4:05 PM
469 ARI 48½ *
470 DEN -7½ UNDER

ARI should play keep away...
ARI QB Stanton starts
ARI COB
DEN COB



10/05 4:25 PM
471 KC 44 **
472 SF -6 UNDER

KC LT Stephenson returns  (from susp)



10/05 4:25 PM
473 NYJ 43½ UNDER
474 SD -6½ ***

NYJ WR x2? x3? injured



10/05 8:30 PM
475 CIN -1 ****
476 NE 46 over

CIN COB



10/06 8:30 PM
477 SEA -7 ***
478 WAS 45½ over

WAS QB Cousins starts
SEA COB

2014 - week 05 - TNF - picks

So who starts for MIN? QB Bridgewater? or QB Ponder?
Will it make that much of a difference?

10/02 8:25 PM
301 MIN 47½ under
302 GB -8 *

?RAIN?
MIN QB Ponder? Bridgewater?
So GB should win SU, but ATS? hmmmm?
MIN must play keep away, "run, run and short pass'g"
if they do I suspect under the total will win