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| 2013 - Preseason week 4 - results |
Friday, August 30, 2013
2013 - Preseason week 4 - results
Not the greatest results, not the worse...
Thursday, August 29, 2013
2013 - Preseason week 3 - results
Not the greatest results, especially for totals, but it is preseason...
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
2013 - preseason week 4 - picks
08/29 7:00 PM 101 PHI -3 *** 102 NYJ 39½ over 08/29 7:00 PM 103 IND 37½ * 104 CIN -3½ under 08/29 7:00 PM 105 DET -4½ over 106 BUF 39½ * 08/29 7:30 PM 107 JAC -3 under 108 ATL 39½ * 08/29 7:30 PM 109 PIT 36½ under 110 CAR -3½ *** 08/29 7:30 PM 111 WAS -2 * 112 TB 37 over 08/29 7:30 PM 113 NO 36 under 114 MIA -6 ** 08/29 7:30 PM 115 NYG 39 under 116 NE -1½ * 08/29 8:00 PM 117 TEN -4 ** 118 MIN 38½ over 08/29 8:00 PM 119 BAL 38 * 120 STL -7 *under? 08/29 8:00 PM 121 CLE -1 * 122 CHI 39 UNDER 08/29 8:00 PM 123 GB 36½ under 124 KC -3½ * 08/29 8:00 PM 125 HOU -2½ over 126 DAL 37½ * 08/29 9:00 PM 127 ARI -1 under 128 DEN 38 * 08/29 10:00 PM 129 SF 38½ UNDER 130 SD PK * 08/29 10:00 PM 131 OAK 36½ * 132 SEA -7 UNDER
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
google and NFL
Just read this ...Google and NFL meet; Sunday Ticket up for grabs?
After some initial thought, why not? DirectTV has always been limited to satellite subscribers, but the internet is a far bigger market, not just here but overseas. I wonder if Google will need to pay re-transmission fees of local broadcast game to Fox, ABC/ESPN, CBS and NBC?
Since the conferences are split up among divisions of East, North, South, and West I always thought it would be nice to have the each of the major broadcasters have a division and have the broadcast rights for the home games of that division. Instead of the current convoluted mish mash of Thursday Night games, Sunday Night games and Monday Night games as well as Sunday football. There's also DirectTV and their out-of-market games broadcast as well as Dish and their Red Zone broadcast.
Google could consolidate all of this much better and really saturate broadband links on game days/nights. It's interesting that their is speculation that DirectTV is losing money.
One thing I do know is the regular TV broadcast is the first to be transmitted out to the world as the DirectTV broadcast is seconds behind I'll estimate about 5-6 seconds. Enough to make a difference in the betting world for in-game betting. Imagine if Google had control of all the broadcasts, they could cut that delay down to milliseconds (or a least a second or two), thus no advantage would be gained by an informed gambler (with access to real time broadcast of the game).
With Google in the game, a new bidding war appears to have begun and this time, the normal TV broadcaster will probably play the regulation rules and fees to gain an advantage, but the NFL should move on to the most successful online presence if they expect to grow the sport as well as revenues.
Well we'll see how this all plays out....
After some initial thought, why not? DirectTV has always been limited to satellite subscribers, but the internet is a far bigger market, not just here but overseas. I wonder if Google will need to pay re-transmission fees of local broadcast game to Fox, ABC/ESPN, CBS and NBC?
Since the conferences are split up among divisions of East, North, South, and West I always thought it would be nice to have the each of the major broadcasters have a division and have the broadcast rights for the home games of that division. Instead of the current convoluted mish mash of Thursday Night games, Sunday Night games and Monday Night games as well as Sunday football. There's also DirectTV and their out-of-market games broadcast as well as Dish and their Red Zone broadcast.
Google could consolidate all of this much better and really saturate broadband links on game days/nights. It's interesting that their is speculation that DirectTV is losing money.
One thing I do know is the regular TV broadcast is the first to be transmitted out to the world as the DirectTV broadcast is seconds behind I'll estimate about 5-6 seconds. Enough to make a difference in the betting world for in-game betting. Imagine if Google had control of all the broadcasts, they could cut that delay down to milliseconds (or a least a second or two), thus no advantage would be gained by an informed gambler (with access to real time broadcast of the game).
With Google in the game, a new bidding war appears to have begun and this time, the normal TV broadcaster will probably play the regulation rules and fees to gain an advantage, but the NFL should move on to the most successful online presence if they expect to grow the sport as well as revenues.
Well we'll see how this all plays out....
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
2013 - Preseason wk 3 - picks
Thursday: 08/22 7:30 PM 251 NE 45½ over 252 DET -2 * 08/22 8:00 PM 253 CAR 42 under 254 BAL -3 * Friday: 08/23 8:00 PM 255 SEA -2 * 256 GB 42½ *OVER* 08/23 10:00 PM 257 CHI -3½ over 258 OAK 38½ * Saturday: 08/24 4:30 PM 259 BUF 42½ * 260 WAS -3½ over 08/24 7:00 PM 261 NYJ 39½ *? 262 NYG -2½ under? 08/24 7:00 PM 263 CLE 42½ *over* 264 IND -2½ * 08/24 7:30 PM 265 TB 40½ under 266 MIA -3 * 08/24 7:30 PM 267 KC 40 * 268 PIT -3 UNDER 08/24 7:30 PM 269 PHI -3½ * 270 JAC 43 under 08/24 8:00 PM 271 ATL 43 * 272 TEN -3 over 08/24 8:00 PM 273 STL 43 * 274 DEN -6½ *UNDER 08/24 8:00 PM 275 CIN 43½ * 276 DAL -3 *over 08/24 10:00 PM 277 SD 40½ under 278 ARI -4 * Sunday: 08/25 4:00 PM 279 NO 43½ under 280 HOU -3 * 08/25 8:00 PM 281 MIN 40 UNDER 282 SF -4½ *
GRID ranking - Preseason
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| 2013 - GRID Ranking - Preseason |
I had a much tougher time sizing up BAL/NYG/CHI and KC/TB/ARI than the rest of the ranking, they are nearly interchangeable IMO.
You'll notice the NFC slant/tilt as far as stronger divisions, I just feel that the AFC has a greater disparity between teams this year than last. Sure CAR and STL could be in the bottom 10, but who would you then raise into their place? DET? CLE? PHI?
Of all the teams in the bottom 10, MIA has the best D, but I suspect that their O will have issues this year.
JAC maybe the surprise team, if they start QB Henne and win w/run game, D and ST, but it appears they will start QB Gabbert and injured thumb on throwing hand, rather than sit him for the next couple of months, so I left them near the bottom.
BAL even though they are the defending Super Bowl champs will play the season with a target on their back for every game and I suspect with all their new additions will not be up to the task.
CHI is among the oldest teams (total starts, total career games), but due to new regime and lackluster preseason will need to surprise in regular season to move up.
MIN is the most complete team, except at the most important position QB and that's why GB for all their issues along OL still rates the highest in NFC North. DET has yet to show they can win several games in a row and if the opposing D can force DET O to look elsewhere (other than option #1 Megatron) than they've won.
Right now the AFC East except for NE should be called the AFC "Least", MIA, BUF, NYJ all have multiple issues to overcome. The AFC South and West aren't far behind with problem child teams. TEN needs to find a new QB, accuracy is the most overlooked factor by most pundits, management and their ilk (those who choose/draft/evaluate players) is the second and unless JAC upgrades their management personnel or perhaps just a wholesale change (which OAK and SD have done) they'll be stuck in the mud. OAK and SD should be much better next year, but for now they will be mired near the bottom.
SEA depth has been very impressive this preseason and should be ranked #1, but I guess they don't get the 'press' that the east coast teams and other older teams do. The whole team plays with hunger, we'll see if they go all the way.
2013 - Preseason week 2 - results
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| 2013 - Preseason wk 2 - results |
For the majority of games the SU winner also won ATS except for:
BAL won SU, ATL won ATS
CHI won SU, SD won ATS
Notice: I also lost ATS and totals for ATL @BAL, SD @CHI, as well as SF @KC, TB @NE and JAC @NYJ. I suppose I could've predicted totals better for SF/KC game, but TB/NE and JAC/NYJ going way over the totals were very surprising
Monday, August 19, 2013
add SEA for 6 pt teaser
Here's a nice article by CHFF http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/dude-doesnt-lose-the-russell-wilson-story/24239/
How is this useful, well if SEA is a dog, there is only one way to look(bet) at(on) the game, but just as interesting is doing a teaser. Of course, you'll need to find something else to pair it with as a two pick 6 point tease is the minimum the sportsbooks will accept. So SEA and the Under could be a steady pick, if they are facing their division rivals or any team with a good defense and so-so offense.
How is this useful, well if SEA is a dog, there is only one way to look(bet) at(on) the game, but just as interesting is doing a teaser. Of course, you'll need to find something else to pair it with as a two pick 6 point tease is the minimum the sportsbooks will accept. So SEA and the Under could be a steady pick, if they are facing their division rivals or any team with a good defense and so-so offense.
Why not start QB Henne? if not bet against JAC...
I read this about JAC QB Gabbert http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2013/08/19/jacksonville-jaguars-name-blaine-gabbert-starting-quarterback-rule-him-out-for-rest-of-preseason/ and what really gets my attention is JAC plan to start QB Gabbert in Game 1.
Now a hairline fracture of your thumb on your throwing (dominant) hand may not sound like much, but it is broken and bones normally need 6 to 8 weeks to heal and then more time for the normal usage to come back to an acceptable level.
So what is JAC management doing? Recent recallable memory - I believe QB Favre had something similar, but this was later on in his career, so QB Favre had far more wisdom on coverages and where to go with the ball, but Favre's accuracy was lacking and I believe his completion rate went down that year as well as interceptions went up.
I also noted in the AFL (where they pass the ball even more than NFL) this 2013 season that 2012 MVP QB Grady also had an injury to hand/wrist and though he was admirable (in playing thru injury), he was not the same and lost quite a few games as well as notable timing issues with WR's. Management should have just played QB2 and let him get more seasoned.
I believe history will repeat itself, if JAC QB Gabbert starts the regular season and continues to be their starter, JAC will lose games. Defenses will concentrate on stopping the run, because JAC won't really have much of a passing offense.
Their are other symptoms of a dysfunctional team. This year the media is potraying WR Blackmon as immature, but I think he is frustrated with the level of QB play. Remember he came from a very prolific college spread pass attack with Oklahoma State. He isn't getting enough targets and the ones he does get aren't up to snuff.
JAC management needs to sit QB Gabbert on IR and ride out the first couple of months with QB Henne. Then if QB Gabbert is tossing the ball well, give him practice time and if they have nothing to lose, he can then start. If they are still in contention for playoffs, stick with QB Henne.
JAC coaching staff, needs to play to the strength of their players or a 4-12 season will look like a fantasy season for them. My best guess is JAC staff will be pig headed and continue to start QB Gabbert for Sept, just how pig headed will they be is the question, will they continue into the next month after 4 losses?
Now a hairline fracture of your thumb on your throwing (dominant) hand may not sound like much, but it is broken and bones normally need 6 to 8 weeks to heal and then more time for the normal usage to come back to an acceptable level.
So what is JAC management doing? Recent recallable memory - I believe QB Favre had something similar, but this was later on in his career, so QB Favre had far more wisdom on coverages and where to go with the ball, but Favre's accuracy was lacking and I believe his completion rate went down that year as well as interceptions went up.
I also noted in the AFL (where they pass the ball even more than NFL) this 2013 season that 2012 MVP QB Grady also had an injury to hand/wrist and though he was admirable (in playing thru injury), he was not the same and lost quite a few games as well as notable timing issues with WR's. Management should have just played QB2 and let him get more seasoned.
I believe history will repeat itself, if JAC QB Gabbert starts the regular season and continues to be their starter, JAC will lose games. Defenses will concentrate on stopping the run, because JAC won't really have much of a passing offense.
Their are other symptoms of a dysfunctional team. This year the media is potraying WR Blackmon as immature, but I think he is frustrated with the level of QB play. Remember he came from a very prolific college spread pass attack with Oklahoma State. He isn't getting enough targets and the ones he does get aren't up to snuff.
JAC management needs to sit QB Gabbert on IR and ride out the first couple of months with QB Henne. Then if QB Gabbert is tossing the ball well, give him practice time and if they have nothing to lose, he can then start. If they are still in contention for playoffs, stick with QB Henne.
JAC coaching staff, needs to play to the strength of their players or a 4-12 season will look like a fantasy season for them. My best guess is JAC staff will be pig headed and continue to start QB Gabbert for Sept, just how pig headed will they be is the question, will they continue into the next month after 4 losses?
Friday, August 16, 2013
guess I'm not the only 'insane' person
I've heard from other football fans, that betting on preseason is crazy, but after examining the wins and losses, you do see tendencies and I suspect the books catalog them as well.
I just read an article from the LVRJ here "preseason wagering not sign insanity" and it fairly accurate and even provides some interesting info as well as providing the QB rotations for each team.
I did fairly well last week (2013 preseason week 01 results), we'll see how preseason week 2 goes...
I just read an article from the LVRJ here "preseason wagering not sign insanity" and it fairly accurate and even provides some interesting info as well as providing the QB rotations for each team.
I did fairly well last week (2013 preseason week 01 results), we'll see how preseason week 2 goes...
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
2013 - Preseason - week 02 - picks
Thursday: 08/15 7:30 PM 401 DET 40½ UNDER 402 CLE pk * 08/15 7:30 PM 403 ATL 41 under 404 BAL -4½ * 08/15 7:30 PM 405 CAR 42 * 406 PHI -3½ under PHI DB Williams on their D "soft" 08/15 8:00 PM 407 SD 38½ under 408 CHI -5½ * Friday: 08/16 7:00 PM 409 MIN 43 * 410 BUF -3½ under 08/16 8:00 PM 411 TB 41½ * 412 NE -3½ under 08/16 8:00 PM 413 OAK 40½ over 414 NO -6½ * 08/16 8:00 PM 415 SF 40 over 416 KC -1½ *** KC QB Smith "We'd love to stick it to everybody who thought we couldn't do it," Smith said, "he and I included." (refering to HC Reid) Saturday: 08/17 4:30 PM 417 DAL 41 under 418 ARI -3 * 08/17 7:00 PM 419 TEN 41 **OVER** 420 CIN -3 * 08/17 7:30 PM 421 JAC 39 * 422 NYJ -2½ UNDER 08/17 8:00 PM 423 MIA 40½ under 424 HOU -3 * 08/17 8:00 PM 425 GB 40½ under 426 STL -3½ ** 08/17 10:00 PM 427 DEN 41 over 428 SEA -3½ * Sunday: 08/18 7:00 PM 429 IND 40 * 430 NYG -2½ under IND owner Irsay "gives team an earful" Monday: 08/19 8:00 PM 431 PIT -1 over 432 WAS 38 *
Monday, August 12, 2013
2013 - Preseason - HoF, wk 1 - results
not the greatest start, but not bad at all... only 3 surprising games were MIA vs DAL (HoF), BAL @TB, and NE @PHI, neither a win for ATS or totals, and 5 games were on the money.
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| 2013 - Preseason - Hall of Fame, week 01 - results |
Thursday, August 08, 2013
to tackle? or not to tackle? that is the question for preseason....
Yahoo posted an interesting article NFL teams trending toward no tackling in camp
What caught my eyes are the following quotes:
"Far more AFC teams tackle in camp than in the NFC. The New York Jets, Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver and San Diego tackle to the ground to some degree whether it's scrimmages, 9-on-7 drills or goal-line situations."
"In the NFC, Detroit, Atlanta, San Francisco, Green Bay and Dallas have tackled to the ground on rare occasions such as open scrimmages for fans."
Also of note, KC is a tackling team and PHI is no longer a tackling team. It would be nice to have a complete list.
Now if we could apply this to preseason somehow... It is interesting that for HoF game DAL won and MIA loss. Perhaps DAL won due to more time put into offensive execution???
I guess you could add GB and CAR as tackling teams, due to recent reports of fighting.
AFC
NE ?
BAL?
CLE?
HOU?
IND?
JAC?
TEN?
OAK?
NFC
NYG?
WAS?
CHI?
MIN?
NO?
TB?
ARI?
SEA?
STL?
What caught my eyes are the following quotes:
"Far more AFC teams tackle in camp than in the NFC. The New York Jets, Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver and San Diego tackle to the ground to some degree whether it's scrimmages, 9-on-7 drills or goal-line situations."
"In the NFC, Detroit, Atlanta, San Francisco, Green Bay and Dallas have tackled to the ground on rare occasions such as open scrimmages for fans."
Also of note, KC is a tackling team and PHI is no longer a tackling team. It would be nice to have a complete list.
Now if we could apply this to preseason somehow... It is interesting that for HoF game DAL won and MIA loss. Perhaps DAL won due to more time put into offensive execution???
I guess you could add GB and CAR as tackling teams, due to recent reports of fighting.
AFC
NE ?
BAL?
CLE?
HOU?
IND?
JAC?
TEN?
OAK?
NFC
NYG?
WAS?
CHI?
MIN?
NO?
TB?
ARI?
SEA?
STL?
Wednesday, August 07, 2013
2013 - Preseason - week 01 - picks
HoF game - unexpected sloppiness by MIA, hopefully that wasn't a sign of things to come...
08/08 7:30 PM 251 BAL 35 UNDER 252 TB -3 ** TB x2 tendencies 08/08 8:00 PM 253 WAS 35 * 254 TEN -2 *OVER WAS a bit beat up from injuries WAS QB2 Cousins QB3 Grossman TEN HFx3 TEN QB2 Fitzpatrick QB3 Smith 08/08 8:00 PM 255 STL 34½ over 256 CLE -4 * STL O/U 5-0, looks like WR Austin & Bailey are a combo STL QB2 Davis QB3 Clemens CLE new HC/staff, states "O looking ragged at times" CLE QB2 Campbell QB3 Hoyer 08/08 8:00 PM 257 CIN 36½ * 258 ATL -3 over? CIN L4Y HFx4 ATL RDOx4 08/08 9:00 PM 259 DEN 35½ * 260 SF -3 under SB preview, at least for players - measure up stick 08/08 10:00 PM 261 SEA -1½ * 262 SD 35½ under? SEA new DC, L5Y SU 5-0 SD new HC/staff, ATS/SU 0-2 vs SEA 08/09 7:30 PM 263 MIA -1 under 264 JAC 35½ * MIA 4days rest 2nd road trip, more sloppy play? JAC QB2 Henne (xMIA) 08/09 7:30 PM 265 NYJ 35½ * 266 DET -4 OVER NYJ QB competition, new OC 08/09 7:30 PM 267 NE 40 under 268 PHI -4½ *** NE ATS/SU L4Y 4-0 PHI new HC/staff, QB competition 08/09 8:00 PM 269 ARI 35 ** 270 GB -3½ over ARI new HC/staff GB L5Y 1-4 ATS/SU 08/09 8:00 PM 271 CHI 34 OVER 272 CAR -2 * CHI new HC/staff, DL depleted/issues CAR new OC, QB2 Anderson QB3 Clausen 08/09 8:00 PM 273 KC 36½ OVER? 274 NO -3 * KC new HC/staff NO QB2 McCown QB3 Wallace 08/09 8:00 PM 275 HOU 35 ** 276 MIN -1 under HOU L5Y 4-1 ATS/SU MIN L5Y road team 4-1 08/09 10:00 PM 277 DAL -2 **UNDER** 278 OAK 35½ * DAL 2nd game in 4 days 8/4 OAK lots of inj's on D and O 08/10 7:30 PM 279 NYG 35½ under 280 PIT -2½ * PIT L5Y 4-1 ATS 3-2 SU (3-0 @HOME) 08/11 1:30 PM 281 BUF 36 OVER* 282 IND -3 * BUF new staff/QB, 8/3 update QB Kolb inj's knee IND new OC, QB2 Hasselbeck, 2nd yr staff,
Friday, August 02, 2013
2013 Preseason - Hall of Fame - picks
08/04 8:00 PM 241 MIA -2½ *** 242 DAL 33 under DAL has OL injuries/issues, first game, don't expect much from 'boys.... MIA RDUx3
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