NFL films has a short clip, that's very interesting to watch
see: http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2013/01/27/49ers-must-avoid-more-miscues-like-these/
The game was also a Thursday night game @BAL, which BAL won 16-6 (think crossing 3 time zones and short week to prep, I'll assume they flew on Wed, I've done the cross country trip and the next morning you're tired if you need to get up early, I always had difficulty going to sleep, by the end of the week I was okay, but that first day is usually tiring)
You do see SF QB Smith missing out on taking a shot over BAL FS Reed to SF TE Walker.
There's also the penalties for a chop block by RB Gore and pass interference on CB Brown.
You also see BAL DL scheme really well vs SF OL on the right side, which allows a sack.
SF QB Smith to WR Edwards just not in synch, while BAL D gets inside position and interception.
This should serve as motivation for SF in the Super Bowl, they know they can be beaten by BAL. This could be a bit of over confidence for BAL since they already have a win over SF.
There's no home field advantage for the second clash between Harbaugh teams as well as body clock adjustment. BAL will be on an emo high w/MLB Lewis and potentially more BAL players in their twilight years. SF as well has a players where this could be their last game as well. Since it's the Super Bowl, both teams will be on a high, just who will come down first? Or make the first crucial error?
This should be a good game and I'm hoping for a great game.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Saturday, January 26, 2013
SB 47 Prop Bets
2/5 Update/Results
Only two of my thoughts hit
OVER on 5 1/2 total TDs and Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams TD?
Unsure of the payout for the total, but the other paid +160
If you had taken would a safety occur, it paid +600
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I noticed SB XLVII prop bets over at footballperspective.com http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-xlvii-prop-bets/ a couple of days ago and meant to pick a few in an eariler post. So though this maybe a bit late it's still in time for SB.
You might want to take a look at Delanie Walker at 18/1 as the first person to score a TD. He and Kaepernick were in sync earlier this year.
Will this game go into OT? pays 6/1 for the yes, just a hunch
Only two of my thoughts hit
OVER on 5 1/2 total TDs and Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams TD?
Unsure of the payout for the total, but the other paid +160
If you had taken would a safety occur, it paid +600
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I noticed SB XLVII prop bets over at footballperspective.com http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-xlvii-prop-bets/ a couple of days ago and meant to pick a few in an eariler post. So though this maybe a bit late it's still in time for SB.
You might want to take a look at Delanie Walker at 18/1 as the first person to score a TD. He and Kaepernick were in sync earlier this year.
Will this game go into OT? pays 6/1 for the yes, just a hunch
Will there be a Lead Change in the Second Half? Yes (Lead Change in 2nd Half) +150 (3/2)
Total Touchdowns in the game Over/Under 5 ½ I'd take the OVER
Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game? Yes (Defensive or Special Teams TD) +160 (8/5) - Normally I'd stay away, but both teams are stronger on D than on O, in particular BAL ST has been iffy at times in returns, muff or fumble anyone?
Half Time / Full Time Tie / Baltimore Ravens 15/1 Tie / San Francisco 49ers 12/1
I like both of the above for their payouts and it's reasonable to have a tie at the half
The largest points lead of the game by either team will be Over/Under 13, I wish they had a payout for this but I'd look at the under
That's all for now, I'm sure their are more props, but I'm thinking of a close game in the first half and then perhaps a runaway in the second half...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Here's a twist for the Super Bowl, involving PHI
http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2013/01/24/the-real-reason-the-baltimore-ravens-are-going-to-the-super-bowl-an-unknown-stat-hangs-on-for-a-fourth-season/
This unknown stat is crazy...
The opponent for PHI first home game has gone on to the Super Bowl the past 3 seasons (NO, GB, NYG) and this season it was BAL, that makes it 4-in-a-row!
The twist is that all prior 3 opponents won the Super Bowl but lost @PHI, this year BAL won @PHI ... just another interesting 'trend' to follow
This unknown stat is crazy...
The opponent for PHI first home game has gone on to the Super Bowl the past 3 seasons (NO, GB, NYG) and this season it was BAL, that makes it 4-in-a-row!
The twist is that all prior 3 opponents won the Super Bowl but lost @PHI, this year BAL won @PHI ... just another interesting 'trend' to follow
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
2012 - week 21 & 22, Pro Bowl & Super Bowl 47
01/27 7:00 PM
495 AFC 81 *
496 NFC -3 OVER
AFC has a large contingent of HOU and DEN players, think more unity, we're on the same page, great for O and D. There were also many NE players, but about half will sit out due to injuries.
NFC w/o GB QB Rodgers, ATL QB Ryan
02/03 6:30 PM
101 BAL 48 OVER
102 SF -4 *
If this was a normal game it would be a defensive battle in 1st half and higher scoring in Q2 and Q4, but the SuperBowl is known for the ads and TV timeouts which really interrupt the flow of the game. This IMO helps the offense, thus the OVER pick.
BAL QB Flacco has been hot the past 3 weeks, with QBR rating of 125.6 116.2 106.2
BAL D QBR ratings of 59.8 88.3 62.3 vs Luck, Manning, Brady
SF QB Kaepernick has QBRs of 91.2 127.7
SF D QBR ratings of 91.5 114.8 vs Rodgers, Ryan
The emo edge may belong w/BAL MLB Lewis and his pending retirement.
SF holds an edge for overall team age as they are the senior team in total yrs, games played last year, game starts last year and career games.
BAL holds an edge for career starts by 416 games.
SF has 0 new vets and rookies in their starting line up, while BAL has 3 new veterans and 3 new starters
(11 O, 11 D and either 3 or 4 ST players [ depends if punt returner starts elsewhere])
What's apparent to me is that you can score on SF D, their CBs are very good, but seemed a step slow for Q1-Q2 @ATL. SF O also seemed to be highly predictable when SF QB Kaepernick used diamond motion with arms. If BAL O comes out throwing rather than running on first downs, BAL may well win the game.
What may be limiting for BAL D is that during regular season, they have limited experience vs a team that runs 'read/option' O (a wk14 road loss to WAS 28-31). This should be a challenge for BAL D and if they don't solve it quickly enough, this really will be a high scoring game.
BAL O seems to thrive on the deep pass, if I was SF secondary, I'd play more zone, force BAL to march down the field rather than allow deep passes. SF D adjusted to ATL deep passes, but ATL got a quick 17-0 lead and added a TD before the half. SF will need to adjust quicker or game plan better to snuff out BAL deep passes, especially to right side of field for BAL O
One big notable difference is the way BAL QB Flacco throws the ball with more arc, than zip on his deep passes and even mid range passes, this does allow his receiving options to get under the ball or even high point the ball. This may be a detriment if SF D can stick w/BAL WRs which I expect they will be able to do. There is one notable exception w/WR Torrey Smith who can just fly.
SF TE's Davis and Walker should be able to get open vs BAL LBs and safeties. They'll need to hold onto the ball as BAL SS Pollard is a TO machine creating fumbles.
Let's take a closer look at BAL @WAS wk14 road loss of 28-31 from personnel view.
Out or limited play:
Offense TE Dickson, limited play LT mcKinnie
Defense Rush Suggs, ILB/ST Ellerbe, MLB Lewis, CB Smith, limited play NT Kemoeatu
Played wk14 game @WAS, but out for SB:
LG Reid, WLB McClain, WR/ST Williams
So it appears BAL will be on the upswing as far as personnel goes, the only notable losses being LG Reid and WLB McClain.
Another way to look at the edge that BAL D seems to have is that they beat QB Brady and QB Manning in back to back games, I'm unsure if any other team has accomplished this feat and this impresses Dungy as well (interview via Dan Patrick show)
While SF D has beaten QB Ryan and QB Rodgers, which though formidable, just not quite that sparkling as beating Brady and Manning
How prophetic:
Justin Smith said. ''It's the team that works the hardest, prepares the hardest and has the best players and coaching staff. You pour all that in together and it comes out pretty good at the end.''
495 AFC 81 *
496 NFC -3 OVER
AFC has a large contingent of HOU and DEN players, think more unity, we're on the same page, great for O and D. There were also many NE players, but about half will sit out due to injuries.
NFC w/o GB QB Rodgers, ATL QB Ryan
02/03 6:30 PM
101 BAL 48 OVER
102 SF -4 *
If this was a normal game it would be a defensive battle in 1st half and higher scoring in Q2 and Q4, but the SuperBowl is known for the ads and TV timeouts which really interrupt the flow of the game. This IMO helps the offense, thus the OVER pick.
BAL QB Flacco has been hot the past 3 weeks, with QBR rating of 125.6 116.2 106.2
BAL D QBR ratings of 59.8 88.3 62.3 vs Luck, Manning, Brady
SF QB Kaepernick has QBRs of 91.2 127.7
SF D QBR ratings of 91.5 114.8 vs Rodgers, Ryan
The emo edge may belong w/BAL MLB Lewis and his pending retirement.
SF holds an edge for overall team age as they are the senior team in total yrs, games played last year, game starts last year and career games.
BAL holds an edge for career starts by 416 games.
SF has 0 new vets and rookies in their starting line up, while BAL has 3 new veterans and 3 new starters
(11 O, 11 D and either 3 or 4 ST players [ depends if punt returner starts elsewhere])
What's apparent to me is that you can score on SF D, their CBs are very good, but seemed a step slow for Q1-Q2 @ATL. SF O also seemed to be highly predictable when SF QB Kaepernick used diamond motion with arms. If BAL O comes out throwing rather than running on first downs, BAL may well win the game.
What may be limiting for BAL D is that during regular season, they have limited experience vs a team that runs 'read/option' O (a wk14 road loss to WAS 28-31). This should be a challenge for BAL D and if they don't solve it quickly enough, this really will be a high scoring game.
BAL O seems to thrive on the deep pass, if I was SF secondary, I'd play more zone, force BAL to march down the field rather than allow deep passes. SF D adjusted to ATL deep passes, but ATL got a quick 17-0 lead and added a TD before the half. SF will need to adjust quicker or game plan better to snuff out BAL deep passes, especially to right side of field for BAL O
One big notable difference is the way BAL QB Flacco throws the ball with more arc, than zip on his deep passes and even mid range passes, this does allow his receiving options to get under the ball or even high point the ball. This may be a detriment if SF D can stick w/BAL WRs which I expect they will be able to do. There is one notable exception w/WR Torrey Smith who can just fly.
SF TE's Davis and Walker should be able to get open vs BAL LBs and safeties. They'll need to hold onto the ball as BAL SS Pollard is a TO machine creating fumbles.
Let's take a closer look at BAL @WAS wk14 road loss of 28-31 from personnel view.
Out or limited play:
Offense TE Dickson, limited play LT mcKinnie
Defense Rush Suggs, ILB/ST Ellerbe, MLB Lewis, CB Smith, limited play NT Kemoeatu
Played wk14 game @WAS, but out for SB:
LG Reid, WLB McClain, WR/ST Williams
So it appears BAL will be on the upswing as far as personnel goes, the only notable losses being LG Reid and WLB McClain.
Another way to look at the edge that BAL D seems to have is that they beat QB Brady and QB Manning in back to back games, I'm unsure if any other team has accomplished this feat and this impresses Dungy as well (interview via Dan Patrick show)
While SF D has beaten QB Ryan and QB Rodgers, which though formidable, just not quite that sparkling as beating Brady and Manning
How prophetic:
Justin Smith said. ''It's the team that works the hardest, prepares the hardest and has the best players and coaching staff. You pour all that in together and it comes out pretty good at the end.''
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
NFL 2012 ST ranking by Dallas News
Here's the link http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/columnists/rick-gosselin/20130120-nfl-special-teams-rankings-one-cowboy-is-a-hero.ece
For the most part I do like the ranking, I just find some of them misleading. Take for instance ARI is ranked #1 with most punts inside the 20yrd line. And why not? Their offense was miserable this season a much more effective ranking would be to divide # of punts inside the 20 divided by total punts to get a percentage of punts that were inside of the 20yd line.
Other notables:
KC which ended up ranked #23 has hired ST guru Dave Toub for this upcoming 2013 season
KC will be on an upward trend for ST
CHI loss Toub, but gained ST coach Joe DeCamillis
CHI will hopefully remain about the same next year, say #10
DAL loss DeCamillis, but gained ???
DAL at this time, I can't say much, but if they don't improve they'll be worst than this years rank of #17
DET smartly let go ST coach Danny Crossman, but guess who hired him? BUF did!
Seems really inane of BUF to do so, probably better to hire someone from college ranks, sigh, or at least keep coach DeHaven, so I expect a big fall from their #8 ranking of this 2012 season.
Who did DET hire? again still an unknown, but they should go up as they ranked #30 for 2012 (I'm just thinking it's more likely they rise in the rankings than fall)
more to follow, need to deal with a virus after googling buffalo 'special teams' and opening windows from a buffalo news site and wikipedia, one of them is spreading this infection, which ms defender caught
For the most part I do like the ranking, I just find some of them misleading. Take for instance ARI is ranked #1 with most punts inside the 20yrd line. And why not? Their offense was miserable this season a much more effective ranking would be to divide # of punts inside the 20 divided by total punts to get a percentage of punts that were inside of the 20yd line.
Other notables:
KC which ended up ranked #23 has hired ST guru Dave Toub for this upcoming 2013 season
KC will be on an upward trend for ST
CHI loss Toub, but gained ST coach Joe DeCamillis
CHI will hopefully remain about the same next year, say #10
DAL loss DeCamillis, but gained ???
DAL at this time, I can't say much, but if they don't improve they'll be worst than this years rank of #17
DET smartly let go ST coach Danny Crossman, but guess who hired him? BUF did!
Seems really inane of BUF to do so, probably better to hire someone from college ranks, sigh, or at least keep coach DeHaven, so I expect a big fall from their #8 ranking of this 2012 season.
Who did DET hire? again still an unknown, but they should go up as they ranked #30 for 2012 (I'm just thinking it's more likely they rise in the rankings than fall)
more to follow, need to deal with a virus after googling buffalo 'special teams' and opening windows from a buffalo news site and wikipedia, one of them is spreading this infection, which ms defender caught
Kurt Warner on Colin Kaepernick and comments on coaching
Here's video on Warner's Corner at nfl.com, see: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-gameday/0ap2000000128604/Warner-s-Corner-Kaepernick
Warner has been a favorite football analyst/commentator of mine (as well as xSTL team mate Marshall Faulk see: How-to-read-the-zone-read-option) so when they speak I listen. I can't watch nfl network at this time (funding issues for the past couple of years), but I do watch them every now and then on nfl.com
What makes the above video so good is Warner's breakdown of each play. There is a segment where he identify's what Kaepernick is looking at on a play action off of an option read. Kaepernick scans half the field for his one player, once he assess' the left side is not an option to pass, he quickly rotates to the right, identify's his player is open and slings a pass. This is what separates most QB's, first is the physical tools to throw a ball on a line with zip versus having to loft a ball to the right spot. The second I believe comes from great tutoring which is what Harbaugh and staff (Roman and QB coach if there is one) has done w/Kaepernick for a year and a half before unleashing him this season.
Warner goes on to identify Kaepernick great awareness to run, when no pressure or pressure exists, to the open area on the field. Having watched Kaepernick at UNR for several years, I believe this is where his college coach Ault was instrumental in having Kaepernick identify the open area and the smarts to get down prior to a tackle (or out of bounds). Long live the Pistol Offense. NFL.com has a video of Ault on Kaepernick
I just thought to mention, that 'weaker armed' QB's can also do the same thing as Kaepernick, it's just they need to have better coordination with WR. The QB's w/o the zip, will have to throw to the open spot and the WR will need to get to that open spot. For WR's I believe they would rather have the deep passes w/more loft as it allows them to run under the ball and make the catch. DBs would also rather see the lofty passes, the QBs that can throw the ball on a rope 30+ yds will always give them issues. WR's with QBs that can gun the ball, need to have better hand-eye coordination and not necessarily speed. I'll take a good hands WR over a speed WR any day of the week. And I'll take a QB with accuracy and play recognition over a QB with the physical tools. Sadly I think many coaches think they can coach up these physically gifted players, but from my observations there are very few that can teach play recognition (or where's the open spot vs this defense).
Of all the coaches in the college world that I wish had made the leap to the NFL, Urban Meyer tops the list. He had great players on his team, but we also now know he also was handicapped w/Tebow throwing ability (as well as with prior QBs). Right now, Alabama is the toast of the college world, but if you track the players from Alabama playing in the NFL, for the most part I believe they are over rated. In particular I find there LBs lack range and lack short area quickness, they are big, strong and fast, have been known to stop the run fairly well, but are deficient in defending the pass. The best out of Alabama maybe their RB's, OL and WRs. I think the NFL should pluck more WR's out of the spread systems. Well enough of this rant....
Warner has been a favorite football analyst/commentator of mine (as well as xSTL team mate Marshall Faulk see: How-to-read-the-zone-read-option) so when they speak I listen. I can't watch nfl network at this time (funding issues for the past couple of years), but I do watch them every now and then on nfl.com
What makes the above video so good is Warner's breakdown of each play. There is a segment where he identify's what Kaepernick is looking at on a play action off of an option read. Kaepernick scans half the field for his one player, once he assess' the left side is not an option to pass, he quickly rotates to the right, identify's his player is open and slings a pass. This is what separates most QB's, first is the physical tools to throw a ball on a line with zip versus having to loft a ball to the right spot. The second I believe comes from great tutoring which is what Harbaugh and staff (Roman and QB coach if there is one) has done w/Kaepernick for a year and a half before unleashing him this season.
Warner goes on to identify Kaepernick great awareness to run, when no pressure or pressure exists, to the open area on the field. Having watched Kaepernick at UNR for several years, I believe this is where his college coach Ault was instrumental in having Kaepernick identify the open area and the smarts to get down prior to a tackle (or out of bounds). Long live the Pistol Offense. NFL.com has a video of Ault on Kaepernick
I just thought to mention, that 'weaker armed' QB's can also do the same thing as Kaepernick, it's just they need to have better coordination with WR. The QB's w/o the zip, will have to throw to the open spot and the WR will need to get to that open spot. For WR's I believe they would rather have the deep passes w/more loft as it allows them to run under the ball and make the catch. DBs would also rather see the lofty passes, the QBs that can throw the ball on a rope 30+ yds will always give them issues. WR's with QBs that can gun the ball, need to have better hand-eye coordination and not necessarily speed. I'll take a good hands WR over a speed WR any day of the week. And I'll take a QB with accuracy and play recognition over a QB with the physical tools. Sadly I think many coaches think they can coach up these physically gifted players, but from my observations there are very few that can teach play recognition (or where's the open spot vs this defense).
Of all the coaches in the college world that I wish had made the leap to the NFL, Urban Meyer tops the list. He had great players on his team, but we also now know he also was handicapped w/Tebow throwing ability (as well as with prior QBs). Right now, Alabama is the toast of the college world, but if you track the players from Alabama playing in the NFL, for the most part I believe they are over rated. In particular I find there LBs lack range and lack short area quickness, they are big, strong and fast, have been known to stop the run fairly well, but are deficient in defending the pass. The best out of Alabama maybe their RB's, OL and WRs. I think the NFL should pluck more WR's out of the spread systems. Well enough of this rant....
Sunday, January 20, 2013
2012 - week 20 - results
weekly total 0-1-1 ATS, 2-0 totals
playoff totals 5-4-1 ATS, 4-6 totals
SF @ATL
ATL came out on fire and built a 17-0 lead mid Q2, SF D was getting beat, appeared a step behind, but SF O and D turned it around starting in Q2. Q3 SF D turns it up a notch and gets TO's (int and fumble by ATL QB Ryan), ATL D starts to hesitate and SF run O is working, SF D continues to stymie ATL O and win the game. SF did have it's own TO issue, WR Crabtree fumble on 2yd line and K Akers missed 38yd FG. Injury note: ATL QB Ryan separates left shoulder (non-throwing) Q4
BAL @NE
NE led at half 13-7. From the start BAL O was continually faced with long drives, in Q3 they put together a 90yd drive score the TD, BAL D gets turnovers including a huge hit by Pollard causing NE RB Ridley to fumble and stop a NE drive that would have scored. Q4 NE QB Brady has a passed batted which end ups with BAL D getting a timely interception. BAL O changes there first half MO from run first to pass first in Q3 and this really seems to galvanize O as they score 3TDs in 2nd half.
note: injuries - NE CB Talib Q1, SS Chung Q2, RB Ridley Q4
The home teams lost and a Harbaugh Bros Bowl is on!
just a thought but both home teams led at the half and maybe got complacent, their Ds just were beaten or their Os were beaten up, wow....
playoff totals 5-4-1 ATS, 4-6 totals
SF @ATL
ATL came out on fire and built a 17-0 lead mid Q2, SF D was getting beat, appeared a step behind, but SF O and D turned it around starting in Q2. Q3 SF D turns it up a notch and gets TO's (int and fumble by ATL QB Ryan), ATL D starts to hesitate and SF run O is working, SF D continues to stymie ATL O and win the game. SF did have it's own TO issue, WR Crabtree fumble on 2yd line and K Akers missed 38yd FG. Injury note: ATL QB Ryan separates left shoulder (non-throwing) Q4
BAL @NE
NE led at half 13-7. From the start BAL O was continually faced with long drives, in Q3 they put together a 90yd drive score the TD, BAL D gets turnovers including a huge hit by Pollard causing NE RB Ridley to fumble and stop a NE drive that would have scored. Q4 NE QB Brady has a passed batted which end ups with BAL D getting a timely interception. BAL O changes there first half MO from run first to pass first in Q3 and this really seems to galvanize O as they score 3TDs in 2nd half.
note: injuries - NE CB Talib Q1, SS Chung Q2, RB Ridley Q4
The home teams lost and a Harbaugh Bros Bowl is on!
just a thought but both home teams led at the half and maybe got complacent, their Ds just were beaten or their Os were beaten up, wow....
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