2016 - week 17 - picks

aaahhh... the last week of the regular season - just as tough to pick (well at least for me) this week as last week...

01/01 1:00 PM
301 HOU 40 *under*
302 TEN -3 *

HOU QB Savage starts (2nd)
TEN QB Cassel starts (1st)



01/01 1:00 PM
303 BUF -6½ **under**
304 NYJ 44 *

BUF interim HC OC Lynn
BUF HC Ryan fired
BUF QB Manuel starts
NYJ QB Ftzpatrick starts



01/01 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41½ *
306 CIN -2½ *under*

BAL WR Smith last game (retires?)
BAL sweeps?
CIN splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
307 NYG 44 *
308 WAS -8 over

NYG in PO spot
NYG splits?
WAS sweeps?
WAS must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 8:30 PM
309 GB -3 ***OVER***
310 DET 46½ *

winner NFC North champ
GB sweeps?
DET splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
311 JAC 47 ***over***
312 IND -4½ *

JAC RBs OUT who starts?
JAC sweeps?
IND splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
313 DAL 42½ under
314 PHI -6 *

DAL sweeps?
PHI splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
315 CHI 41 under
316 MIN -5½ *

CHI sweeps?
MIN splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
317 CAR 46½ *
318 TB -6½ over

CAR splits?
TB sweeps?
TB must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 1:00 PM
319 CLE 44 *
320 PIT -7 under

CLE splits?
PIT sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
321 NO 56 ***over***
322 ATL -7 *

NO splits?
ATL sweeps?
ATL win/loss could affect PO seeding



01/01 1:00 PM
323 NE -9½ over
324 MIA 44½ ***

NE likely AFC #1 seed
NE sweeps?
MIA splits?
MIA in PO spot, could move up a knotch
MIA QB Moore starts (2nd)
MIA HC Gase we're not resting starters



01/01 4:25 PM
325 ARI -6½ *
326 LA 41 under

ARI splits?
LA sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
327 KC -5 *
328 SD 45½ over

KC either AFC West champ or PO berth
KC sweeps?
SD splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
329 SEA -9½ *
330 SF 43 under

SEA win/loss could affect PO seeding
SEA win #2 seed
SEA loss #3? seed
SEA sweeps?
SF splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
331 OAK 41½ under
332 DEN -2½ *

OAK QB McGloin starts (1st)
OAK either AFC West champ or PO berth
OAK sweeps?
DEN splits?

2016 - week 16 - results

not a good week... a sub .500 weekend..

week 16 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 6-9-1


and what are the chances of having identical ATS and Totals records???

for the season:
ATS: 122-111-6
Totals:  122-111-6

2016 - week 16 - picks

The games with playoff motivation are easy to spot, the games w/o motivation are much tougher to predict...

12/22 8:25 PM
101 NYG -2½ *
102 PHI 41½ under

wk9 NYG won 28-23 vs PHI
sweep?
sub-freezing, windy


12/24 1:00 PM
103 WAS -3½ *under*
104 CHI 45½ *

WAS CoMNF (6 days between games)
WAS vs NFC N 2-1 SU/ATS (MIN,GB-DET)
CHI vs NFC E 0-3 SU 1-2 ATS (PHI,DAL,NYG)
cloudy, cold


12/24 1:00 PM
105 MIA 42 *
106 BUF -4 over

wk7 MIA won 28-25 vs BUF
MIA ST 2wks-in-a-row block
sweep?
RAIN, gusty? cold



12/24 4:25 PM
107 TB 52½ * 
108 NO -3 under

wk14 TB won 16-11 vs NO
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
109 ATL -2½ *over*
110 CAR 52 *

ATL w/win clinch div and PO berth
CAR spoiler?
CAR CoMNF (6 days between games)
wk4 ATL won 48-33 vs CAR
split?



12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIN 43 over
112 GB -6½ *

wk2 MIN won 17-14 vs GB
split?
cold, sun/cloud


12/24 1:00 PM
113 NYJ 44 *
114 NE -16½ *under*

NE should win SU, but ATS?
wk12 NE won 22-17 @NYJ
sweep?
RAIN, windy



12/24 1:00 PM
115 TEN -5 ***
116 JAC 44 under

TEN will run over JAC
JAC HC Bradley fired
wk8 TEN won 36-22 vs JAC
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
117 SD -6 under
118 CLE 44 *

Peer Game
SD 0-1 SU/ATS (MIA)
CLE 0-1 SU 1-0 ATS (TEN)
RAIN? windy



12/24 4:05 PM
119 IND 53 *
120 OAK -3½ *over*

IND vs AFC W 1-2 SU/ATS (SD-DEN,KC)
OAK vs AFC S 3-0 SU/ATS
WH road 10-3-1 dog 10-3-1



12/24 4:25 PM
121 SF 40 under
122 LA -3½ *

SF inj's
wk1 SF won 28-0 vs LA
split?
WH FAV SU 9-4



12/24 4:25 PM
123 ARI 43 *
124 SEA -8½ *under*

wk7 ARI tie 6-6 vs SEA
WH FAV SU 11-2



12/24 8:25 PM
125 CIN 41 **UNDER**
126 HOU -1½ *

CIN LB Burfict OUT?
CIN LG Boling OUT?
Peer Game
CIN 0-1 SU/ATS (DEN)
HOU 0-1 SU/ATS (NE)
HOU QB Savage starts (1st) (nice Q4 comeback win last week vs JAC)



12/25 4:30 PM
127 BAL 44 under
128 PIT -5 *

wk9 BAL won 21-14 vs PIT
split?
rain? wind?



12/25 8:30 PM
129 DEN 37½ ***under***
130 KC -3½ *

wk12 KC won 30-27 @DEN
sweep?
RAIN, GUSTY, COLD, clears?



12/26 8:30 PM
131 DET 43 over
132 DAL -7 *

DET inj's?
DET vs NFC E 2-1 SU/ATS (PHI,WAS-NYG)
DAL vs NFC N 3-0 SU 2-1 ATS (CHI,GB,MIN)

2016 - week 15 - results

A really nice weekend ATS, but not nice at all for Totals.
(note: if I had not changed my pick for GB @CHI, I'd have a better record, then again if I had left my pick for JAC @HOU alone I would have had a worse record..

week 15 results:
ATS: 12-3-1
Totals: 6-8-2


for the season:
ATS: 115-102-6
Totals: 116-102-5

2016 - week 15 - picks

Update 12/17 changed HOU/Under to JAC/Under
Update 12/16 changed CHI/Over to GB/Under due to weather
I'm a bit tired, wish I could be more thorough...

12/15 8:25 PM
301 LA 38½ *under*
302 SEA -15 *

LA HC Fisher fired
?20-10?



12/17 8:25 PM
303 MIA -2½ *
304 NYJ 38½ over

MIA QB Moore starts
NYJ inj's
wk9 MIA won 27-23 vs NYJ
MIA vs div SU/ATS 2-1
NYJ vs div SU 1-2 ATS 2-1
?27-24?



12/18 8:30 PM
305 TB 46 *
306 DAL -7 **under**

PEER game
wk10 TB won 36-10 vs CHI (wk7 won 34-17 @SF)
wk4 DAL won 24-17 @SF (wk3 won 31-17 vs CHI



12/18 1:00 PM
307 DET 41½ *under*
308 NYG -4½ *

DET QB Stafford finger ?limited?
DET vs NFC E SU/ATS 2-0
NYG vs NFC N SU 1-2 ATS 0-2-1
NYG last game @home SU 6-1 ATS 3-4
DET on the road SU 3-3 ATS 4-2



12/18 1:00 PM
309 PHI 41½ *under*
310 BAL -6 *

PHI inj's
BAL CoMNF



12/18 1:00 PM
311 GB -7 *
312 CHI 41 **under**

wk7 GB won 26-10 vs CHI
CHI WR Jeffery returns
GB SU on moneyline, I don't expect them to lose SU
just ATS loss



12/18 1:00 PM
313 IND 45 *
314 MIN -4 over

IND inj's
IND on the road SU 3-3 ATS 3-2-1
IND vs NFC N SU/ATS 2-1
MIN vs AFC S SU/ATS 3-0
MIN @home SU 4-2 ATS 5-1



12/18 1:00 PM
315 CLE 42 *under*
316 BUF -10 *

CLE QB RGIII 3rd start (2nd in a row)



12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN 42½ *
318 KC -5½ ***UNDER***

TEN CoTNF (10 days rest)
PLAYOFF implications



12/18 1:00 PM
319 JAC 39½ *
320 HOU -6 *under*

wk10 HOU WON 24-21 @JAC
WH road dog ATS 9-3-1
not a game to bet on...



12/18 4:05 PM
321 NO 50½ *
322 ARI -2½ **over**

NO on the road SU 2-4, ATS 5-1
NO 3-0 vs NFC W 
ARI last game @home SU 4-2-1 W-L-T ATS 3-4
ARI 1-2 vs NFC S (win TB, lost CAR ATL)
?27-24?


12/18 4:05 PM
323 SF 51½ ***UNDER***
324 ATL -13½ ***

SF injs



12/18 4:25 PM
325 NE -3 ***
326 DEN 44 *under*

PEER game
NE CoMNF
NE on the road SU 6-0 ATS 5-1
DEN @home SU/ATS 4-2



12/18 4:25 PM
327 OAK -3 *****
328 SD 50 over

OAK CoTNF (10 days rest)
OAK on the road SU/ATS 5-1
SD inj's
wk5 OAK won 34-31 vs SD



12/18 1:00 PM
329 PIT -3 *
330 CIN 44 under

wk2 PIT won 24-16 vs CIN
PIT vs DIV SU/ATS 2-1
PIT final road game SU/ATS 4-3
CIN vs DIV SU/ATS 2-2
CIN @home SU 3-2-1 ATS 3-3



12/19 8:30 PM
331 CAR 51 over
332 WAS -4½ *

PEER Game
wk3 (Peer game 1) CAR lost vs MIN
wk13 (Peer game 1) WAS lost @ARI
CAR on the road, SU 1-5 ATS 1-4-1
WAS @home SU/ATS 4-2
WAS has inj's but CAR has not played very well in road games

2016 - week 14 - results

just above .500 ATS and above .666 for totals for this week

notes (highly unusual, its normally the opposite):
division sweeps = 5
(KC swept OAK, WAS swept PHI, CIN swept CLE, HOU swept IND, NYG swept DAL)
division splits = 1
(DET splits w/CHI)

week 14 results:
ATS: 9-7
Totals: 11-5


for the season results:
ATS: 103-99-5
Totals: 110-94-3

2016 - week 14 - picks

Changed pick from NE/Under to BAL/Under
Changed pick from GB/Over to SEA/Over

CoB (Coming off Bye)
CLE TEN

12/08 8:25 PM
101 OAK 47 under
102 KC -3 *

Which team is 'charmed'?



12/11 1:00 PM
105 DEN 43½ under
106 TEN -1 *

TEN CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
107 SD 48½ *
108 CAR -3 under

CAR CoSNF



12/11 1:00 PM
109 HOU 46½ **UNDER**
110 IND -5½ *

IND CoMNF



12/11 1:00 PM
111 CIN -6 *
112 CLE 43½ over

CLE CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
113 PIT -2 *
114 BUF 47½ ***OVER***



12/11 1:00 PM
115 ARI 43½ *
116 MIA -2 over



12/11 1:00 PM
117 CHI 43½ *under*
118 DET -8 *



12/11 1:00 PM
119 MIN -3½ *
120 JAC 39½ **UNDER**

MIN CoTNF



12/11 4:25 PM
121 NO 51½ under
122 TB -2½ *



12/11 1:00 PM
123 WAS -1 *
124 PHI 47 over



12/11 4:05 PM
125 NYJ 46½ under
126 SF -1 *

NYJ CoMNF



12/11 4:25 PM
127 SEA -2½ *
128 GB 46½ *over *

SEA FS Thomas IR OFY
SEA CoSNF



12/11 4:25 PM
129 ATL -6 *
130 LA 45 **UNDER**



12/11 8:30 PM
131 DAL -3 *
132 NYG 47½ under

DAL CoTNF



12/12 8:30 PM
133 BAL 46 *
134 NE -7½ *under*

2016 - week 13 - results

OUCH, week 13, awful ATS... and pretty good for totals...


week 13 results:
ATS: 5-10
Totals: 10-5


for the season:
ATS: 94-92-5
Totals: 99-89-3