2015 - week 08 - picks

11/1 update: added numbers for TEN @HOU
10/28 update: changed pick from CHI/OVER to MIN/OVER

Waiting on numbers for TEN @HOU

CoB CHI CIN DEN GB
GiB ARI BAL DET HOU KC SEA

Last week teams CoB
3-1 ATS [STL,TB,OAK-DAL]
2-2 SU [STL,OAK-TB,DAL]

Last week teams GiB 
1-3 ATS [JAC-BUF,WAS,PHI]
2-2 SU [JAC,WAS-BUF,PHI]

Last week DIV:
MIN sweeps DET 
NYG splits w/DAL


10/29 5:25pm
101 MIA 51 **
102 NE -8 over



11/01 6:30am
251 DET 45½ under
252 KC -5 *

at Wembley Stadium, London, England
DET new coaches OC,OLx2
DET OC Jim Bob Cooter
DET GiB
KC GiB



11/01 10:00am
253 MIN -1 *
254 CHI 42½  over

CHI CoB
WH ROAD 6-0 ATS



11/01 10:00am
255 TB 48½ *
256 ATL -7 over

WH FAV 6-0 ATS/SU


  
11/01 10:00am
257 NYG 50 over
258 NO  -3½ *

WH FAV 6-0 SU


11/01 10:00am
259 SF 39½ *UNDER*
260 STL -8½ *****

SF CoTNF



11/01 10:00am
261 ARI -5 *
262 CLE 46 over

ARI GiB
CLE QB Manziel starts?
WH FAV 5-1 SU



11/01 10:00am
263 CIN -1½ *
264 PIT 48½ under

CIN CoB



11/01 10:00am
265 SD  50½ over
266 BAL -3 *

BAL GiB



11/01 10:00am
267 TEN 42 under
268 HOU -4 *

HOU GiB
WH FAV 5-1 ATS/SU



11/01 1:05pm
269 NYJ -2 OVER
270 OAK 44 *

WH DOG 6-0 ATS



11/01 1:25pm
271 SEA -6 ***
272 DAL 41 over

SEA CoTNF
SEA GiB
WH HOME 4-1-1 ATS
WH FAV SU 5-1
WH O/U 1-5



11/01 5:30pm
273 GB -3 *
274 DEN 46 under

GB CoB
DEN CoB
WH HOME 6-1 ATS



11/02 5:30pm
275 IND 46 under
276 CAR -7 ***

WH FAV SU 6-0

2015 - week 7 - results

TNF - 2min warning SEA leads 17-0, SF is punting again (x5). Will SEA relax in Q4? NOPE!


Much better this week ending up 9-5 ATS and for Totals as well
for the season: ATS 55-48-2 Totals 49-54-2

2015 - week 07 - results

2015 - week 7 - picks

10/25 updated numbers for PIT @KC
Waiting on numbers for PIT @KC

MIN @DET, looks like a really close game... I just wonder if DET exhausted themselves last week with their near loss at home vs CHI. MIN had an easier time @home vs KC, though I'd say it was more physical. KC has a lack of O prowness. DET should still be really hungry...

CoB DAL OAK STL TB
GiB BUF JAC PHI WAS

Last week teams CoB 4-0 ATS/SU
Last week teams GiB 
1-2-1 ATS [CIN-DEN,GB-CHI]
3-1 SU [CIN,DEN,GB-CHI]



10/22 8:25 PM
303 SEA -6½ *
304 SF 42 under?

LY SEA swept SF (19-3,17-7) L2Y 4-1 SU includes PO
WH DOG 4-1 ATS



10/25 9:30 AM
451 BUF -6 over
452 JAC 42 *

at Wembley Stadium, London, England
BUF GiB
BUF QB Manuel starts (2ndGame)
BUF arrived on Monday
JAC GiB
JAC arrived on Friday
interesting arrival dates, 
JAC treating as road game
BUF trying to adjust
BUF has won L2G 2012 34-18(@BUF), 2013 27-20 (@JAC)
??? BUF injs ???


10/25 1:00 PM
453 CLE 42 under
454 STL -5½ *

STL CoB
WH O/U 4-1



10/25 1:00 PM
455 PIT 42 *
456 KC -3 under

PIT QB L Jones starts (1stGame)
WH 5-0 FAV SU



10/25 1:00 PM
457 HOU 44 over?
458 MIA -4½ *

MIA 2nd game for new interim HC
WH F-D/FAV 4-1 ATS/SU



10/25 1:00 PM
459 NYJ 48½ under?
460 NE -9 *



10/25 1:00 PM
461 MIN -2½ OVER
462 DET 44½ *

WH 5-0 road ATS, O/U 1-4



10/25 1:00 PM
463 ATL -4 ****
464 TEN 48 **UNDER**

ATL CoTNF (10days)
TEN QB Mariota OUT?
TEN QB Mettenberger starts?
TEN OL shuffle, (C OFY)
WH F-D/FAV 3-1-1/4-1 ATS/SU, O/U 1-4



10/25 1:00 PM
465 TB 43½ *
466 WAS -3½ under

TB CoB
WAS GiB
WH DOG 5-0 ATS, O/U 1-4



10/25 1:00 PM
467 NO 52 *
468 IND -4½ over

NO CoTNF (10days)
NO won L2G 2009 31-17(SBXLIV), 2011 62-7
SoS(opponent W-L) NO>IND (21-12>16-17)
likely 30s-30s game
note: 
IND wins vs DIV, losses vs AFC E
NO SU 0-3 on the road, 2-1 at home
WH FAV 5-0 SU



10/25 4:05 PM
469 OAK 47 *
470 SD -4 *OVER*

OAK CoB
?predict 24-28?
4 scores - 4 scores



10/25 4:25 PM
471 DAL 45½ **
472 NYG -3½ over

DAL CoB
DAL QB Cassel starts
NYG CoMNF (6days)
NYG ...injs...
WH HOME 5-1 ATS, O/U 5-1
wk1 NYG 26 DAL 27, NYG wins ATS, DAL wins SU



10/25 8:30 PM
473 PHI 46 over
474 CAR -3 *

PHI GiB
PHI CoMNF (6days)
WH FAV 5-0 SU, O/U 4-1
CAR ST edge?



10/26 8:30 PM
475 BAL 48½ under
476 ARI -7½ *****

BAL ...injs...
WH FAV 5-0 ATS/SU, O/U 4-1

2015 - week 06 - results

TNF - NO gets the upset, now I wish I had changed my pick, but I forgot... sigh

So who will win?
Will MIA coming off a bye week (CoB) w/an interim HC and new DC and on the road pull off the upset @TEN?    YES!

Other teams CoB, CAR (@SEA), NYJ (vs WAS) and MIN (vs KC) YES, YES, YES

Will BAL w/their numerous injuries get the win @SF? NO

Will NYG w/their numerous injuries get the win @PHI? NO

HOU @JAC is also a tossup game for me, HOU and JAC both have their own issues. HOU will "re-start" QB Hoyer and JAC should have their MLB back. Due to injuries or less than expected defensive prowness this game may be an OVER game
  HOU/OVER combo won

First bits of winter weather this weekend: DEN @CLE, CIN @BUF, ARI @PIT, WAS @NYJ. Definitely cooler: SD @GB, MIA @TEN, KC @MIN (note: MIN in the midst of stadium building, thus they are an outdoor team this year) ONLY PIT won as a home dog and MIA won as a road dog, all other favorites won


Another less than .500 weekend ATS and I just reached .500 for TOTALS
ATS = 6-7-1
Totals = 7-7
Season ATS = 46-43-2
Season Totals = 40-49-2

Notes:
Surprise game ARI loss @PIT, PIT QB Landry Jones subs for PIT QB Vick in Q3 and promptly leads team to TD, for the rest of the half IMO Jones does really well. He needs to start next game.

I was also sorta surprised by MIA domination of TEN, but I guess MIA interim HC Campbell has a fiery personality that inspires the players.

NE did dominate the 2nd half of the game, IND got a garbage time TD to get the cover ATS

2015 - week 07 - results

2015 - week 06 - picks

10/18 update: changed pick from NYG/Under to PHI/Under
10/18 update: changed pick from WAS/Over to NYJ/Under
10/14 update: changed pick from SF/Over to BAL/Over

CoB MIA NYJ CAR MIN
GiB CHI CIN DEN GB
GiB team records:
wk3 1-1 SU 2-0 ATS* (NE* TEN*)
wk4 2-2 SU 3-1 ATS* (MIA NYJ* MIN* CAR*)
wk5 1-3 SU 1-3 ATS* (DAL OAK STL TB*)
wk6 ?-? SU ?-? ATS (CHI? CIN? DEN? GB?)

CoB
wk5 1-1 SU 2-0 ATS* (NE* TEN*)
wk6 ?-? SU ?-? ATS (MIA? NYJ? MIN? CAR?)

10/15 8:25 PM
103 ATL -3 *
104 NO 51 over 

ATL swept NO LY (@ATL 37-34 OT, @NO 30-14)



10/18 1:00 PM
251 DEN -4 ***
252 CLE 42½ *over*

DEN GiB
WH FAV 4-0 SU



10/18 1:00 PM
253 CIN -3½ ******
254 BUF 43 *UNDER*

CIN GiB
BUF QB EJ Manuel 1st start



10/18 1:00 PM
255 KC 44½ under
256 MIN -3½ **

KC O ???
MIN CoB



10/18 1:00 PM
257 HOU -1½ **
258 JAC 43 under

HOU coming off TNF
HOU QB Hoyer 2nd start
HOU swept JAC LY (@JAC 27-13, @HOU 23-17)
5TDs+3-4FGs= 38-41pts
47pts?
taking pts? prudent?
each team s/b able to run on each other



10/18 1:00 PM
259 CHI 43½ *
260 DET -3 under

CHI GiB
DET QB Stafford starts?
DET QB/RB TOs?
DET has swept L4G vs CHI 
(@DET 40-32, @CHI 21-19, @DET 10-0, @CHI 20-14)
The difference this year for CHI, HC/OC Fox/Gase
WH FAV 4-0 SU



10/18 1:00 PM
261 WAS 40½ *under*
262 NYJ -6 *

NYJ CoB
10/18 update LT, CBs OUT



10/18 1:00 PM
263 ARI -3 *
264 PIT 44½ OVER

PIT coming off MNF
PIT WR Bryant starts (off susp 4G)
PIT QB Vick 3rd start
WH DOG 4-0 ATS



10/18 1:00 PM
265 MIA 43½ *UNDER
266 TEN -2½ *

MIA interim HC Campbell 1st game
MIA players keep your job game for interim HC?
MIA CoB



10/18 4:05 PM
267 CAR 41 *
268 SEA -7 ***UNDER***

CAR CoB
SEA 3-0 SU vs CAR L3Y (all @CAR 16-12,12-7,13-9)



10/18 4:25 PM
269 SD 50 under
270 GB -10 ***

SD coming off MNF
GB GiB
AFC West (except of DEN) losing vs NFC N



10/18 4:25 PM
271 BAL -2½ *
272 SF 44 *OVER*



10/18 8:30 PM
273 NE -8½ ***
274 IND 55 UNDER

IND coming off TNF
IND QB Luck starts?



10/19 8:30 PM
275 NYG 50 **UNDER**
276 PHI -4 *

10/15 update: NYG CB, WR OUT

2015 - week 05 - results

Ouch, my pick of HOU/Under combo is the opposite if the winning IND/OVER combo... sigh
Not a good sign for the rest of the weekend. note: odds opened at IND -1 game time IND +5
HUGE losses for bettors, HUGE win for casino

Douch (double ouch) my change from PHI/Under to NO/Under is the same result as above. If I had left it alone, I would have had at least half of it right for the game

KC losing RB Charles will lower scoring or keep their games low scoring...
(this ruined my KC/Over pick as CHI/Under won)

So I ended up 6-8 ATS and 6-8 totals for the week, sub .500
I ended up with loss/loss (ATS/total) for several games - IND @HOU, CHI @KC, WAS @ATL, NO @PHI, SF@NYG

and what a dramatic finish for MNF, with PIT RB Bell scoring the game winning TD in the final seconds of the game.

2015 - week 05 - results

2015 - week 05 - picks

10/7 update:
 - numbers added for IND @HOU, looks like early bettors are taking HOU
 - changed pick from PHI/Under to NO/Under

CoB NE TEN
GiB DAL OAK STL TB

301 IND  -1 under
302 HOU  45 **

IND 'DOG 4-0 ATS
even if IND QB Luck starts, HOU s/b the right side for ATS
HOU QB Mallet starts
HOU opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
451 JAC 42 *
452 TB -3 **OVER**

JAC alt wins ATS LWLW?
TB GiB



10/11 1:00 PM
453 BUF -2½ ***
454 TEN 42½ under

WH OVER 3-0
BUF might lose if they do more self infliction
BUF alt wins ATS WLWL?
TEN CoB
TEN 'DOG/OVER 3-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
455 CLE 43½ *
456 BAL -6½ *OVER*

CLE alt wins LWLW?
CLE OVER 4-0
BAL opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
BAL should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
457 WAS 48 over
458 ATL -7½ *

WH FAV SU 4-0
WAS alt wins ATS LWLW?
ATL should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS
ATL 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
459 CHI 45 **OVER**
460 KC -9½ *

KC should win SU, I'm not so sure ATS
KC OVER 4-0 ATS
CHI C Montgomery OFY, OL shuffle?
CHI opponent 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
461 NO 49 *
462 PHI -5 *UNDER

WH FAV 4-0 ATS
NO opponent/OVER 6pt tease ATS 4-0
PHI 'DOG/UNDER 4-0 ATS


10/11 1:00 PM
463 STL 46½ under
464 GB -9½ *

STL GiB
STL another letdown game?
GB 4-0 ATS



10/11 1:00 PM
465 SEA 44 *under*
466 CIN -1 ***

CIN O = at least 4 scores, same for SEA?
CIN 4-0 ATS/SU
CIN 6pt tease OVER 4-0



10/11 4:05 PM
467 ARI -3 ***
468 DET 44 over

ARI OVER 4-0
will DET score 14 pts?



10/11 4:25 PM
469 NE -9 *
470 DAL 50 over

NE CoB
NE 2-0-1 ATS
NE 6pt tease OVER 3-0
DAL DE Hardy, LB McClain returns
DAL QB Weedon 2nd start
DAL GiB



10/11 4:25 PM
471 DEN -5½ *under
472 OAK 43½ *

WH Road 4-0 ATS
DEN LB Wolfe returns
DEN 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
OAK GiB
OAK OVER 6pt tease 4-0 ATS



10/11 8:30 PM
473 SF 43 under
474 NYG -7 *****



10/12 8:30 PM
475 PIT 45½ *
476 SD -3½ over

WH Over 3-0
PIT WR Bryant returns
PIT QB Vick start #2
PIT 6pt tease 4-0 ATS
SD TE Gates returns
SD opponent/OVER 6pt tease 4-0 ATS

2015 - week 04 - results

TNF - A game that looks like PIT kicker Scobee gave it away with two misses (just like w/Game 1 @NE) and in OT BAL gets the cover (or push if bet it later on where the number increased to -3)

Hurricane Joaquin looks to be a factor in PHI @WAS (rain, wind) and maybe NYG @BUF (gusty?)

QB shenanigans?
Late scratch IND QB Luck (Hasselbeck gets the win)
Late start CHI QB Cutler (gets the win)
and NO QB Brees starts (gets the win)

Another good week 9-6 ATS 9-5-1 for Totals, results below:

2015 - week 04 - results

NE, TEN on bye week

Bright green = UPSET winner (ATS/SU win)

Bright pink = UPSET loser (ATS/SU loss)

darker green = ATS winner (SU loss)

darker brick = ATS loser (SU win)