William Hill does it again - all 72 possible combos for SuperBowl

see http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2013/jan/04/las-vegas-sports-book-odds-every-super-bowl-result/

I've been playing with SEA vs DEN and SEA vs NE as my most likely scenario, the link above pegs it at 18-1 (if SEA wins)

DEN vs SEA 15-1 (if DEN wins)
NE vs SEA 12-1 (if NE wins)

looks like they're pegging ATL, GB with better chances than SEA and SF has the same chance as SEA, when looking thru DEN and NE odds

2012 Win Loss Opponents Records - Playoff teams

Odd, I can't upload an image directly from my PC, a screen capture of my spreadsheet showing the playoff teams opponents Win-Loss records for the regular season

sigh....

Update I was able to upload image using a workaround, I first uploaded to Picasa web album, then selected pix from within blog menu template, sheesh twice the work, when it was so much easier to prior to today.

  Anyway, here's some of my thoughts....  

ATL has the weakest opponent W-L record with a difference of -40
followed by CIN (-32) IND (-30) DEN (-22)
WAS (-3) NE, HOU, BAL (-2)
SEA, SF (+2)
GB (+4)
and MIN (+10) who had the toughest opponents of all the playoff teams this year.


What else that jumps right out? All of the entire AFC opponents were in the negative range and only two for the NFC (ATL and WAS). You can still bet on the AFC vs NFC superbowl angle and get +1.5pts if you took the NFC. 

Comparing Rookie QBs in the playoffs
IND QB Luck faced opponents that totaled 113-143 W-L records (-30)
WAS QB Griffin faced opponents that totaled 126-129 W-L records (-3)
SEA QB Wilson faced opponents that totaled 127-125 W-L records (+2)

just to compare MIA QB Tannehill faced opponents that totaled 127-127 W-L records (+/- 0)
MIA also played SF and STL who have tied this year (add +2 for total games to equal 256)

So who do you think is the best rookie QB? Wilson played the toughest schedule, Luck the easiest


This year is a bit unusual with SF and STL first division game ending in a tie.
Here's what I think for the playoff teams affected by the tie.
If you added a W and a L to each column for NE you would still have them at -2.
You could do the same for MIN and GB.
For SEA you would add +2 to each W and L column and still end up +2. So no change their either.

With SF:
the worst would be to add two to loss column and they would go from +2 to 0
the best would be to add two to win column and they would go from +2 to +4
(still .500 or better)

With WAS:
the worst would be to add one to loss column and they would go from -3 to -4
the best would be to add one to win column and they would go from -3 to -2
(still negative)

So for the majority of teams affected by SF/STL tie game, they would not be affected at all.
(NE, GB, MIN, SEA)

WAS would have a +1/-1 record (but still opponents W-L records would still be negative) and SF would be affected in the +2/-2 range (opponents would be .500 or better)



Other notables:
ATL may be headed for another one and done year. So could DEN, odd how the number one seeds both faced much weaker opponents than the second through fourth seeds.

If you were to just use opponent W-L records for betting this weekend, you would be favoring for the AFC - BAL and HOU, with the NFC - SEA and MIN
The closest games would be SEA @WAS (5), then MIN @GB (6) with the AFC games a probable blowout since the difference in opponents records are 28 (IND @BAL) and 30 (CIN @HOU)

Earlier this week:
 I have picked CIN due to their underrated D and HOU recent inability to score pts or stop opponents consistently

I took IND +6 due to their team having less issues than BAL and even with BAL MLB Lewis announcement of retirement I just didn't think BAL would cover the spread of -6

GB should have Woodson back along with Cobb and MIN Winfield may be back as well, but I thought it was unusual for GB not to pick on his replacement more in last weeks game. GB will be at home and coming off a loss to MIN last week, so they should be highly motivated.

SEA @WAS will be the most interesting game to watch, I expect both teams to run the ball, with SEA the better running team, the stronger D and having an edge as well with ST

2012 - week 18 - playoffs - picks

01/05 4:30 PM

101 CIN 43½ *
102 HOU -4½ OVER

HOU O has been so sporadic and CIN D is their real strength


01/05 8:00 PM
103 MIN 46 UNDER
104 GB -8 *

MIN should fall down from emo high of last weeks win. GB has yet to lose two in a row this season


01/06 1:00 PM
105 IND 46½ over
106 BAL -6½ *

on instinct I chose BAL and OVER, but after looking at the numbers ATS, picking IND seems to be the right thing to do, 46.5 may be a bit high, but road teams that win, tend to be an over game. BAL may yet win, but -6.5 is probably too much for them to cover
UPDATE: BAL MLB Ray Lewis announced retirement is one of those situational bets that's hard to ignore, (last game at home by a great team member), this will be a great lift emotionally for BAL. We already know of the 'Chuck Strong' incentive for IND and I think they're due for a let down, coupled with their inability to generate TO's (the worst of the remaining teams in the playoffs) and some other miserable stats, so I'm going back to instinct

01/06 4:30 PM
107 SEA -3 *
108 WAS 45½ OVER

Though I do like watching WAS O, SEA overall is a much stronger team

2012 - week 17 - results

An ok weekend I was above .500 ATS and dead even with totals. On the really bright side I correctly picked the side and total for six games, that's over a third correct

Odd how I missed late games again, picked correctly SU, but not ATS

CAR winning on the road was surprising, somehow I thought NO D would play better against the run.

I had thought about taking NYG, but took the win the last game for the coach angle, but when the opening onside kick by PHI did not lead to pts, I knew PHI was doomed.

HOU did not look good, MIN won on an emo high and I'm wondering if I should put WAS in the same category.

2012 - week 17 - picks

Saturday, updated lines, switched pick from PIT to CLE (getting 10pts)
AWAITING LINES for CLE @PIT, TB @ATL, OAK @SD



12/30 1:00 PM
301 NYJ 39½ UNDER
302 BUF -3½ ***

oh jets we jest


12/30 4:25 PM
303 MIA 46½ under
304 NE -10 *

NE could win #1 or #2 seed


12/30 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41 UNDER
306 CIN -2½ **

bragging rights?
win or lose, both teams still in playoffs


12/30 1:00 PM
307 CLE 34½ *
308 PIT -10 UNDER

PIT should get the season split


12/30 1:00 PM
309 HOU -6½ over
310 IND 46½ *

HOU could win #1 or #2 seed
IND win or lose, still in playoffs


12/30 1:00 PM
311 JAC 42 under
312 TEN -4 *

hmmm?


12/30 1:00 PM
313 PHI 46 *
314 NYG -7½ UNDER

NYG needs win + DAL/CHI/MIN losses


12/30 8:30 PM
315 DAL 48½ OVER
316 WAS -3 *

DAL win and they're in
WAS win and they're in, lose still has a chance


12/30 1:00 PM
317 CHI -3 over
318 DET 44½ **

CHI needs win + MIN loss


12/30 4:25 PM
319 GB -3½ under
320 MIN 46½ *

GB win = 1st round bye, #2 seed
MIN win and they're in


12/30 1:00 PM
321 TB 45½ *
322 ATL -5 UNDER

ATL has secured first round and home field advantage
TB should be UP for this game


12/30 1:00 PM
323 CAR 54 UNDER
324 NO -5 *


12/30 4:25 PM
325 KC 42 UNDER
326 DEN -16 *

DEN could win #1 or #2 seed


12/30 4:25 PM
327 OAK 39½ UNDER
328 SD -9½ *

OAK QB ?


12/30 4:25 PM
329 ARI 39 UNDER
330 SF -16½ *

SF win = NFC West and #2 seed if GB loss
It might be better to go with dog

12/30 4:25 PM
331 STL 41 UNDER
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA win + SF loss = NFC West and #2 seed It might be better to go with dog

2012 - week 16 - results

Really good week ATS, just .500 for totals

I'm a bit late posting results as I'm still awaiting the Game Book .pdf file on the nfl.com site for the ATL @DET game. I've tried to contact nfl.com via 'contact us' link on their website to inform them that the game book is missing for the ATL @DET game. Though I am able to gleen some information from what's online, the accuracy that the gamebook .pdf file represents as an official record of the game itself is what I use an data entries for my spreadsheet and the accuracy of other sites is an unknown at this time.

NE couldn't cover a -14.5 spread on the road and DEN covered a -13 spread at home.
CHI and ARI are hard to read for me as they're not consistent enough in winning or losing.
I could've taken SEA using the split division or comparing how well STL has done vs SF this season

2012 - week 16 - picks

whoops, must have hit save instead of publish.... sigh..



12/22 8:30 PM
101 ATL -3½ *
102 DET 50½ over

12/23 1:00 PM
103 TEN 46½ under
104 GB -12½ **

12/23 1:00 PM
105 OAK 46 UNDER
106 CAR -8½ *

12/23 1:00 PM
107 BUF 41½ under
108 MIA -4½ *

MIA should get season split


12/23 1:00 PM
109 CIN 42½ *
110 PIT -3½ over

CIN should earn season split


12/23 1:00 PM
111 NE -14½ **
112 JAC 50½ under

12/23 1:00 PM
113 IND -6½ **
114 KC 41½ UNDER

Where's KC O to come from? run O?


12/23 1:00 PM
115 NO 51½ *
116 DAL -3 over

12/23 1:00 PM
117 WAS -6½ *
118 PHI 45 over

12/23 1:00 PM
119 STL 43½ *
120 TB -3 over

12/23 4:25 PM
121 NYG -2½ UNDER
122 BAL 47½ *

BAL should be UP for this game against defending SB champs and they'll know they are the underdog


12/23 1:00 PM
123 MIN 44½ *
124 HOU -7½ under

somehow I think, MIN will stay within number


12/23 4:05 PM
125 CLE 44½ *
126 DEN -13 under

I just think CLE can play keep away to stay within number

12/23 4:25 PM
127 CHI -5½ UNDER
128 ARI 36½ *

Do I really have to pick? sigh...


12/23 8:30 PM
129 SF -1 *
130 SEA 39½ *UNDER*

12/23 1:00 PM
131 SD 38½ **
132 NYJ -2½ UNDER

Another game, that I rather just stay away from