2011 week 02 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
CHI@NO L/L
KC@DET W/L
JAC@NYJ L/W
OAK@BUF L/W
ARI@WAS L/W
BAL@TEN L/L
SEA@PIT W/W
GB@CAR L/L
TB@MIN L/L
CLE@IND L/L
DAL@SF P/W
HOU@MIA W/L
SD@NE W/W
CIN@DEN W/L
PHI@ATL L/W
STL@NYG W/P
weekly
results 6-9-1/6-9-1


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
17-14-1/12-18-1

yea who travell'd far, from west to east OAK, ARI, SEA, SD
add a L to the SU column

as I outsmarted myself this past week, I'll leave it at that.

as you'll note O/U totals 11-5-1 this week and last week was 13-3
will this Over trend continue this coming week?

2011 week 02 Sun-Mon - picks

ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)

09/18 1:00 PM
197 CHI 47½ ***
198 NO -6 OVER

09/18 1:00 PM
199 KC 45½ *UNDER*
200 DET -8 *

09/18 1:00 PM
201 JAC 38½ **
202 NYJ -9.5 under

09/18 1:00 PM
203 OAK 41½ over
204 BUF -4 *

09/18 1:00 PM
205 ARI 44½ Under
206 WAS -4 *****

09/18 1:00 PM
207 BAL -6 *****
208 TEN 38½ under

09/18 1:00 PM
209 SEA 40 under
210 PIT -13.5 *

09/18 1:00 PM
211 GB -10 ***
212 CAR 45½ under

09/18 1:00 PM
213 TB 41½ UNDER
214 MIN -2.5 *

09/18 1:00 PM
215 CLE -2 under
216 IND 39 *

09/18 4:05 PM
217 DAL -3 *
218 SF 41 over

09/18 4:15 PM
219 HOU -3 **
220 MIA 48 OVER

09/18 4:15 PM
221 SD 53½ over
222 NE -7 *

09/18 4:15 PM
223 CIN 40 ***
224 DEN -3.5 under

09/18 8:25 PM
225 PHI -2.5 *
226 ATL 49½ OVER

09/19 8:35 PM
227 STL 44 Under
228 NYG -6 *

2011 week 01 - results

GAME RESULT(ATS/TOTAL )
NO@GB W/W
PIT@BAL L/L - surprise, surprise
DET@TB W/W
ATL@CHI L/L - CHI woe is me, not again - they won - convincingly
BUF@KC W/W
IND@HOU W/W
PHI@STL L/P - interesting game, PHI fumble return for TD - a turning point in the game?
CIN@CLE W/L
TEN@JAC W/L - what was I thinking for total???
NYG@WAS W/L
CAR@ARI W/L
SEA@SF W/L
MIN@SD L/W
DAL@NYJ W/L
NE@MIA W/L
OAK@DEN L/W

results 11-5/6-9-1

Very good ATS and not good at all for totals....

I review'd totals once again and now I noticed that there were only two games with the total set above the NFL average total of 42-45pts. If I had picked overs for all games with "low" totals, I could have been 10-1 in picks (only the TEN @JAC game stayed true to form, PHI @STL had a normal total and was either a Push or Under, 44 or 44.5 and the IND @HOU total was set high at 46.5) I wonder if next week the totals will be set a bit higher? Or will it be kept low due to teams haven't had a real offseason and are still cranking up? ATL, PIT, maybe even TEN?

As for a reason to why the totals are higher, perhaps its just tackling... or lack there of. Just look at special teams play, I was surprised by the number of runbacks, I was thinking more knees in the endzone and thus drives begin at the twenty, but instead I think ST coordinators may be wanting more returns as tackling for rookies and other ST players will be lacking in fundamentals.
There were 3 kick offs and 6 punts (by my count) returned for TDs and this weekend. That's more than half of the games w/a TD by ST.

The sportsbooks could be torn between setting the total to high, which the sharks may like and bet large amounts and move the line lower or setting the total to low and the public will drive it higher, since the public favors the over. An interesting dilemma, which I think will favor the public. After a brief review of the lines available at vegasinsider.com I noticed 4 games w/lines set between 42-45, 4 games set 46 or higher and the remaining 8 games are set at 41 or less.
This is 2 more for the average and 2 more for above average than last week, so 4 games less than average were taken away, seems a bit cautious to me. I'll hazard a guess that 8 games will fall between 42-45 and 4 above and 4 below, let's see what happens next week.

2011 week 01 Sun-Mon - picks

ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)

09/11 1:00 PM
453 PIT 36 *
454 BAL -1.5 Under

09/11 1:00 PM
455 DET 41½ *
456 TB -1.5 **OVER**

09/11 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 **
458 CHI 40½ under

09/11 1:00 PM
459 BUF 40½ *
460 KC -5.5 Over

09/11 1:00 PM
461 IND 43½ under
462 HOU -8.5 *****

09/11 1:00 PM
463 PHI -4 OVER
464 STL 44 *

09/11 1:00 PM
465 CIN 35½ *
466 CLE -6.5 Under

09/11 1:00 PM
467 TEN 37 Over
468 JAC -1.5 *

09/11 4:15 PM
469 NYG -3 under
470 WAS 39 **

09/11 4:15 PM
471 CAR 37 UNDER
472 ARI -7 ***

09/11 4:15 PM
473 SEA 37½ under
474 SF -5.5 *

09/11 4:15 PM
475 MIN 41½ Over
476 SD -8.5 *

09/11 8:25 PM
477 DAL 40½ *
478 NYJ -6 UNDER

09/12 7:00 PM
479 NE -7 Under
480 MIA 45½ *

09/12 10:15 PM
481 OAK 40½ Over
482 DEN -3 *

2011 week 01 Thursday night - picks

451 New Orleans 47
452 Green Bay -4

ok, so I'm first thinking, GB SU should win (money line)
and then that total looks awfully low, it should be 10pts more (so Over total 47)
that leaves the spread and -4 means a TD and nothing less will win, so 30-24 seems like a good number (GB).

which is the better bet? take over 47 total points

BTW numbers opened up at -4.5 and 46.5, so $$ is flowing to NO and Over

NFL Preseason Live 2011 subscription

Ok, so again this year I've purchased preseason as well as regular season access via nfl.com site.

Last year, there were issues w/game tape from local broadcasters, missing footage, delay, etc.

This year there appears to be an issue w/broadcast of WAS @BAL from ESPN.
I've alerted nfl support (nflpreseasonlive@neulion.com) but they've given me the standard "it's not 24hrs" (game is available after 24 hrs - their rules on blacked out games)
Well it's now after midnight PST which makes it 3am EST and the game is still not available.
Let's see game began at 8pm EST on Thursday approx end at 11pm EST.
So it should be available around 11pm Friday EST, which translates to 8pm PST, but it's now after midnight (Saturday) and I still see blacked out in the guide, sigh....

Why don't I have ESPN? because this year I don't have cable or satellite TV (I had to cut back somewhere due to - "in between jobs" status for months).

You'll need to click on picture to see the date and time in lower left corner.

So my guess is ESPN is having an issue, but why doesn't nfl tech support say so???


Comment on viewing angles:
If I could have one view it would be an end zone view. I really wish the nfl would add this feature/view for all games especially for those of us who will view the games online. I believe the nfl already "shoots" this view, we as the general public are not priviledged to watch this view, just teams, coachs and nfl broadcast tv analyst, but we really should have access.

BTW MNF in past seasons did have the "end zone" view. Hopefully this year they'll continue to have this view.

I would prefer the view from the offense, but if they only had the view from the defense I would still prefer this versus the side view that we now see on broadcast tv for the past 40+ years.

I've noticed at time during a broadcast that we'll see a wider view during a play. My guess is that someone in the broadcast booth thinks it's going to be a pass play, but what do you know? it's an inside handoff and that wide focus has to quickly resized, a bit dizzying for my eyes. Just do end zone, slightly higher, the camera moving above the field would be ideal for such a use and with wide angle we should have a fine view.

We have the technology to broadcast simultaneous views on regular over the air tv w/the advent of all digital airwaves. Local broadcast stations should beg their network to broadcast multiple views. CBS could for instance use 8.1 for normal and 8.10 for endzone views. Why 8.10? well I noticed 8.2 is used for Spanish language and here in Vegas, there is a channel 47 which uses .1 through .8 (there's oldies and other specific content on these channels).

Oh well, billions spent on creating the nfl 'product', but when will they spend on more features for the general public????

How the new kickoff rules may affect the game

I was reading this article at pro-football-reference.com and stopped for a while to muse about may really happen.

Those teams that do have good ST return men will probably be impacted the most. BUF, CHI, CLE, and SEA in mind will be most notable. These teams won't be able to change field position as easily on kick returns and thus should punt more often and total scores for their games should have a greater tendency to go under the total.

Of course, if this labor dispute continues and we have a shortened seasoned, again under the total should occur more often even if the books adjust the lines. The only teams that will be able to score int 35+ range will be the veteran teams w/a good QB, thus over the total should occur in less games than normal.

I wonder what the normal over/under will be for this upcoming season? I also wonder how many overs and unders has occurred for the past 5 seasons as well as the O/U tendency for each team.

Safety is good for the game/players. Kick offs will become more like the 25yd FG attempt. The 25yd FG I would guess is successful about 95% of the time and perhaps touchbacks to the 25yd line will be just as routine. Eventually coaches will place less emphasis on the KO and thus ST play which perhaps could lead to more practice on the offensive side or the ball, after all the team with the most points wins right?
A few teams have FG kickers who can also do kickoffs from the 35yd line and get the touchback. OAK comes to mind and I think the kicker in ARI perhaps as well (unless I'm thinking of someone else). This could help on game day with the team activating another player (instead of carrying ST player).

The average teams has 10 - 12 possessions a game, if both teams score 21pts (or 3 out of 10 possessions) then 42 will be the ending total for the game. The average total must sit somewhere in between 42 and 45 pts is what I'll guess for right now.
Now if instead of scoring a TD, you have to punt or settle for a FG, total should be lower at the end of the majority games. Thus if the total is set somewhere between 42 - 45 pts the under should occur more often the over. We'll see if this occurs or I hope to remember to check on this later on this year.

update 3/24
via NFL, the touchback has been returned to the 20yd line (instead of 25yd) and I still state we will see more punts from the returning team, and w/more 'field position punts', there will be less scoring TD's and more FG's.
Those teams w/good QB's & WR's will move the ball and continue to score TD's. The teams w/questionable QB's will only be able to score TD's perhaps 1 of 4 or 5 possessions, but more likely score FG's

So for a TD team vs a FG team, 3.5 pts won't make much of a difference, the fav will win.
A FG team vs a FG team, that .5 pts will really make a difference.
I suspect that we may see those odd numbers again of 4.5 and 5.5 spread, where depending on the team, the dog may start to bark loudly.