Tuesday, July 02, 2013

2012 KO's by time and score

FP has again another gem of an article see http://www.footballperspective.com/knockouts-in-the-nfl/

If you examine the season records, you'll notice IND, DAL, STL, PHI ToKO wins of less than 10 min average and their associated record (11-5, 8-8, 7-8, 4-12) from the 2012 season. This really points to IND having overachieved for the season and this could point to a bet against them situation this year and with in game betting this might be true as well. And if you believe in the IND view then, perhaps PHI will be on the way up and a bet on proposition for much of the season.

JAC and KC had 0 ToKO wins, which speaks to the talent level and coaching of the team. This year they have new staff and new players (KC more incoming veterans than). If you believe in what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up, then perhaps JAC and KC will be on the upswing, though from personnel, I'd really expect KC to have a change in fortune this 2013 season and JAC perhaps slightly, but this because of the dependency on QB's and unless JAC returns to a running game w/MJD then perhaps good fortune will return.

Of the teams with less than 10 min average (<10) for ToKO losses, SEA, NE, PIT, CIN, WAS (-0.7, -1.3, -5, -7.3, -9)  with records of 11-5, 12-4, 8-8, 10-6, 10-6 all play close games and would be great half time teams as an underdog or pick'em. PIT is the underachiever of the bunch and NE is the overachiever, so perhaps progression(?) this season for PIT and regression(?) for NE.
Of the teams with greater than 30 min average (>30+) for ToKO losses, DEN, SF, HOU (-30.6, -31.7, -35.8) all have winning records (13-3, 11-4, 12-4), yet when then lose they are dominated. If you could predict this situation, then this would be a good 'in game' betting scenario as you could be against them, if they were down early in the game.

You also really notice which teams stick out in this table since it is based on Net Avg and the teams record next to it. BAL and IND appear to have overachieved with their winning record and not so much by dominance (due for regression? this year). SD appears to be the most unlucky team (due for progression? this year)

I would be nice to see the past three seasons to get a better feel for progression, regression or stays the same for each team and for me if there was a new HC, OC, DC or ST for that season.

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