2011 week 17 - picks

01/01 1:00 PM

301 WAS 46½ UNDER
302 PHI -9 *
WAS loss last week is mystifying to me

01/01 4:15 PM
303 TB 46½ OVER
304 ATL -12 **
Time change to 04:15pm EST
ATL after last weeks embarrassing division loss, has a 'feel better' game

01/01 1:00 PM
305 SF -10.5 *
306 STL 35½ UNDER
SF still gunning for 1st round bye

01/01 1:00 PM
307 CHI -1 ***
308 MIN 41 under
MIN QB? uncertainties

01/01 1:00 PM
309 DET -3.5 **
310 GB 46½ over
GB can't improve playoff position

01/01 8:20 PM
311 DAL 46 *
312 NYG -3 over
Time change to 08:20pm EST
NYG hasn't played up to snuff as home team

01/01 1:00 PM
313 CAR 55 OVER
314 NO -9 *
NO still gunning for 1st round bye

01/01 1:00 PM
315 TEN -3 ***
316 HOU 40½ UNDER
TEN needs win and HOU can't improve playoff position

01/01 4:15 PM
317 BAL -2.5 *
318 CIN 38 UNDER
Time change to 04:15pm EST
BAL O has been sputtering lately, I could pick CIN... & over

01/01 4:15 PM
319 PIT -7 ****
320 CLE 36 UNDER
Time change to 04:15pm EST
CLE is awful on O

01/01 1:00 PM
321 IND 37 *****
322 JAC -4 UNDER
now why is JAC favored?

01/01 1:00 PM
323 NYJ 41 OVER
324 MIA -2 *
NYJ is cooked, MIA still playing like a team w/something to prove

01/01 1:00 PM
325 BUF 51½ **
326 NE -12 UNDER
with NE LT & LG out, hard to take NE
w/news of BUF LT, C & TE out, UNDER total is the wise pick


01/01 4:15 PM
327 SD 49 UNDER
328 OAK -3 *
lots of rumors surrounding SD

01/01 4:15 PM
329 KC 36½ *****
330 DEN -3 UNDER
DEN D on downslope

01/01 4:15 PM
331 SEA 41 ***
332 ARI -3 OVER
Two 7-8 teams gunning for .500 season

2011 - Playoff projections - picks

AFC Playoff contenders

NE, BAL/PIT, HOU, DEN/OAK, BAL/PIT, CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK



AFC Wild card (* likely winner)

CIN*/TEN/NYJ/OAK @HOU

BAL/PIT* @DEN/OAK

can't see the home teams winning



AFC Division projected (* likely winner)

HOU/CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK @NE*

DEN/OAK/BAL/PIT @BAL*/PIT

and this week the home teams can't lose



AFC Conference projected (* likely winner)

BAL @NE*

and though mid-season I picked BAL to go to SB, I've changed my mind
Flacco is just not good enough on the road & Brady @home will prove to be insurmountable




NFC Playoff contenders

GB, SF, NO, DAL/NYG, DET, ATL



NFC Wild card (* likely winner)

ATL @NO*

DET* @NYG/DAL

DET is probably weakest pick, funny how I pick'd a dome team? notice only NYG is the only non-dome team?



NFC Division projected (* likely winner)

DAL/NYG/DET @GB*

NO*/ATL @SF

NO is hot, GB was hottest



NFC Conference projected (* likely winner)

NO @GB*

re-match of 1st game of season, again going GBs way
I don't think they can set the total high enough in this game take OVER
yes, NO has a very good chance of winning and if so, I would pick NO to win SB





SB projected (* likely winner)

GB* vs NE @Indianapolis

GB 2ndary appears to be much better than NE

2011 week 16 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL


HOU@IND  W/W

OAK@KC   L/W   I just didn't think OAK could pull it off on the road

DEN@BUF W/L   subtract 2int's returned for TD's and Under total occurs

JAC@TEN   L/P   TEN won SU, lost ATS

ARI@CIN    L/L   CIN D shutouts ARI for 3Qs, ARI O 4Q comeback too little/late

MIA@NE    W/W

CLE@BAL   L/W  CLE continues SU/ATS lose/win streak (3rd game)

NYG@NYJ  W/L  just under total, sputtering O's

MIN@WAS  L/L   UPSET! MIN QB&RB subs win the half & the day

TB@CAR    W/W

STL@PIT     L/W    thinkin' too much

SD@DET     L/L     on the wrong side/total...

SF@SEA     L/W    arggh, 1/2pt hook got me

PHI@DAL  W/L     DAL rested players midQ1 (next wk DAL@NYG, for NFC E title)

CHI@GB    W/L     so many pts by CHI...

ATL@NO   W/W



weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-8/8-7-1



for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
125-108-7/128-108-4

just another self observation - w/holidays, it's just that much tougher to find the time to spend analyzing games before/after making picks and coming up with solid choices. So since around Thankgiving and nasty cold I had for a week or two, I don't think I was as sharp or as involved as I could be

2011 week 16 - Sat, Sun, Mon - picks

12/24 1:00 PM

103 OAK 42 UNDER
104 KC -2.5 *

12/24 1:00 PM
105 DEN -3 UNDER
106 BUF 41 *
just thinkin BUF D will stop DEN runO and since they're @home...

12/24 1:00 PM
107 JAC 40 UNDER
108 TEN -7.5 *
I could take JAC due to 1/2 pt hook, but I'm not

12/24 1:00 PM
109 ARI 40½ ***
110 CIN -4.5 OVER

12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIA 48½ *
112 NE -9.5 OVER
just taking MIA, just cuz NE may have done too much last game

12/24 1:00 PM
113 CLE 38½ UNDER
114 BAL -12.5 *

12/24 1:00 PM
115 NYG 45½ *
116 NYJ -3 OVER

12/24 1:00 PM
117 MIN 44 UNDER
118 WAS -6.5 *

12/24 1:00 PM
119 TB 47½ over
120 CAR -7.5 *

12/24 1:00 PM
121 STL 34½ *
122 PIT -13.5 UNDER
so much hesitation by books to put up a number I finally see (this friday) Hilton and Stations have put up a number

12/24 4:05 PM
123 SD 52½ ****
124 DET -2.5 OVER
SD & DET are heading in opposite directions

12/24 4:15 PM
125 SF -2.5 *
126 SEA 38 UNDER
SEA is doing well, 1st game went way over total, I'm thinking the opposite direction this game

12/24 4:15 PM
127 PHI 50½ *
128 DAL -1.5 OVER
FU or DU or DO?

12/25 8:30 PM
129 CHI 43½ UNDER
130 GB -12 ***

12/26 8:35 PM
131 ATL 52½ OVER
132 NO -6.5 *

2011 week 16 - Thursday night - pick

12/22 8:25 PM

101 HOU -6 UNDER
102 IND 40½ *

I'm just thinkin' w/HOU & IND trending in opposite directions....

2011 - week 15 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL


JAC@ATL    L/W sigh, JAC was just like SD, 3rd game in 11days

DAL@TB     W/W

WAS@NYG L/L now why did I pick NYG & Over?

GB@KC       L/L upset of the year?

NO@MIN    W/W

SEA@CHI   W/L another road win and over the total

MIA@BUF  W/L Q4 so much scoring by both teams

CAR@HOU W/L just when you think CAR D will give up 20+pts, they don't

TEN@IND   L/L huge upset

CIN@STL   W/W

DET@OAK  P/W

NE@DEN    W/W

NYJ@PHI    L/W so PHI are officially spoilers

CLE@ARI    L/W ARI SU win, ATS loss

BAL@SD     L/L very ugly game for BAL on O & D, SD is UP!

PIT@SF       L/W oops - thought that a better 3-4D would give SF more trouble





weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P

7-8-1/9-7



for the year:
ATS/TOTAL

117-100-7/120-101-3



too many L/L which mean upsets for me, though the WAS@NYG game was on my radar, I failed to change it (my picks), sigh....

Huge UPSET w/GB loss, smaller upsets w/TEN, BAL, PIT, NYJ losses
I noticed all road teams for the above

2011 week 15 - Sun-Mon picks

12/18 1:00 PM

305 WAS 45½ over
306 NYG -7 *
hard not to pick NYG, but they could lose ATS, WAS lacks O & w/LT & TE out...

12/18 1:00 PM
307 GB -14 *
308 KC 45½ over
GB may go over total by themselves
KC no matter who starts QB will be lucky to score 10pts

12/18 1:00 PM
309 NO -7 *****
310 MIN 50½ over
NO should cover, but they play much better @home

12/18 1:00 PM
311 SEA 35½ *****
312 CHI -3.5 UNDER
Now why is CHI favored? sure their D is good, but QB stinks, lacks accuracy

12/18 1:00 PM
313 MIA -1.5 *
314 BUF 42½ under
even w/HC fired MIA s/b playing for next yr

12/18 1:00 PM
315 CAR 45½ *
316 HOU -6.5 over
w/o DC Wade Philips & LG Breisel

12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN -6.5 *
318 IND 41 over
TEN has been waiting along time to do this again

12/18 1:00 PM
319 CIN -6.5 *
320 STL 38½ UNDER
STL QB Bradford appears to be shell-shocked

12/18 4:05 PM
321 DET -1 *
322 OAK 48 OVER
hard to pick neither team is play well, just OAK looks worse

12/18 4:15 PM
323 NE -6 *
324 DEN 45½ over

12/18 4:15 PM
325 NYJ 44 *
326 PHI -2.5 over
NYJ w/o S Leonard went 2-3 SU last year, we'll see this year

12/18 4:15 PM
327 CLE 37½ under?
328 ARI -6.5 ****
CLE QB Wallace starts

12/18 8:25 PM
329 BAL -2.5 ****
330 SD 44 under

12/19 8:35 PM
331 PIT 39½ ***
332 SF -2.5 UNDER
why PIT? read this http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/12/12/playbook-cardinals-blitz-stymies-smith/ and PIT has the blue print 3-4 D

2011 week 15 - Saturday night - picks

12/17 8:20 PM

303 DAL -7 ***
304 TB 46½ under

TB is just not cohesive at all, some say they've mailed it in for the season.
DAL have won last 3 meetings '06,'08,'09

2011 week 15 - Thursday night - picks

12/15 8:25 PM

301 JAC 42½ *
302 ATL -11.5 OVER

Even though this is JAC 3rd game in 11 days, I'm thinking JAC will stay close for the ATS win, but SU loss, I slightly favor OVER the total

2011 week 14 - results

GAME        ATS/TOTAL


CLE@PIT   L/W               PIT QB & C inj'd Q2 out for significant part of game

IND@BAL  L/W              IND last drive TD gets the ATS win

HOU@CIN W/L              just over the total

OAK@GB  W/L              another TD and GB would have gone over total by themselves

KC@NYJ   W/L               NYJ explodes Q2 scoring 21pts, KC S inj'd Q2

MIN@DET W/W

NO@TEN   L/W              TEN QB Hasselbeck inj'd Q2

PHI@MIA  L/W               PHI explodes Q2 scoring 24pts, MIA LT inj'd Q1

NE@WAS  L/L                WAS O plays up or is NE D that bad?

ATL@CAR W/W

TB@JAC    W/L               JAC explodes Q2 scoring 28pts

SF@ARI     L/W              ARI splits division series wins w/o QB1 inj'd Q1, SF LT inj'd Q1

CHI@DEN L/W              1/2pt hook

BUF@SD   W/L               just under the total by a half pt

NYG@DAL W/W

STL@SEA   W/L            SEA blocked punt returned for TD Q1 - just over total



weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/9-7

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
110-92-6/111-94-3

I was able to get only 3 games exact (MIN@DET, ATL@CAR, NYG@DAL) and all were over games. There were several surprise games going 'over' the total and several road ATS wins (PHI, CHI, CLE, IND).

2011 week 14 - Sun-Mon - picks

12/11 1:00 PM

105 IND 41 UNDER
106 BAL -16.5 **

IND has won last 8 match ups since '02, w/new RCB & nickel & maybe LBx2
I'm sure BAL HC will bring the above to players attention.


12/11 1:00 PM
107 HOU 37½ *
108 CIN -3 UNDER

I just think CIN is still young on O
and HOU has a D to be reckoned with as well as really good runO


12/11 4:15 PM
109 OAK 52½ UNDER
110 GB -11 ***

Time-change to 04:15pm EST
were the raiders embarrass'd last week?
as for GB, I think there will be focus by WRs & TEs due to # of dropped passes


12/11 1:00 PM
111 KC 36½ UNDER
112 NYJ -9 ***

KC was a little lucky w/TD & int last wk @CHI, CHI OC needed to run more
KC OC nice play calling vs a very good D, KC DC really did well, KC ST good as well
I just don't think it'll happen two weeks in a row



12/11 1:00 PM
113 MIN 48½ *
114 DET -7 OVER

hard to pick who'll win, so take points, both D's have been giving up alot of points for the last month or so AND multiple starters out



12/11 1:00 PM
115 NO -3.5 under?
116 TEN 48½ *

FO or DU?
tuff to pick


12/11 1:00 PM
117 PHI 44 under
118 MIA -3 ***

even if PHI QB Vick starts, PHI still looks 'half-baked'


12/11 1:00 PM
119 NE -8 ******
120 WAS 48 under

WAS LT(best OLineman) & TE(leading rcvr) susp'd


12/11 1:00 PM
121 ATL -2.5 *****
122 CAR 48½ over

CAR a bit beat up, new DT & NT



12/11 1:00 PM
123 TB -1 UNDER
124 JAC 37½ ***

JAC has won last 3 match ups (since '98, 2@JAC 1@TB)
There are observations on 'net that TB has quit


12/11 4:05 PM
125 SF -3.5 ***
126 ARI 39½ UNDER

SF has swept series last 2 years
ARI big emo OT win last week


12/11 4:05 PM
127 CHI 36½ UNDER
128 DEN -3.5 *****

Maybe DEN doesn't cover spread, but they should win. I just don't have any trust
w/CHI OC & DC


12/11 4:15 PM
129 BUF 47½ over?
130 SD -7 ****

BUF in spoiler role, but this is when SD tends to heat up


12/11 8:30 PM
131 NYG 49 *
132 DAL -3.5 OVER

DAL 0-3 ATS vs Division rivals
since '06 1st game of series is high scoring
NYG has won last 2 games @DAL
tuff to pick again, DAL HC mismanages games again?


12/12 8:35 PM
133 STL 39½ UNDER
134 SEA -6.5 *****

STL QB ? & OL shuffle?
FOG projected during whole game

2011 week 14 - Thursday night pick

12/08 8:25 PM

101 CLE 39 UNDER
102 PIT -14 **

2011 week 13 - results

GAME           ATS/TOTAL


PHI@SEA     L/L                 I should've believed reports of SEA QB Jackson and rapport w/WRs. I just        thought w/#1WR Rice out, no one would step up. I also missed some clues 1)PHI was lucky in prior game winning despite 3:2 TO ratio, 2) this game was setup just like NYG game before bye week. SEA D played well again and O came through, I should've stuck w/my instincts.

TEN@BUF   W/W

KC@CHI     W/W

OAK@MIA  W/W

CIN@PIT      L/W               ouch, thought CIN would split div series, PIT 7th sweep in 11yrs

BAL@CLE   W/W

NYJ@WAS  W/L                NYJ 21pts Q4

ATL@HOU   L/W                so what's wrong w/ATL O? QB?

CAR@TB     W/W

DET@NO     W/L                DET collapsed in Q2

DEN@MIN  W/W

STL@SF       L/W                STL QB AJ Feeley, ugghh

DAL@ARI    L/W                and wouldn't you know DAL HC/OC can't manage a game

GB@NYG     L/L                 NYG played up for this game, again to the level of competition

IND@NE      L/L                  NE led 31-3 in Q4, allows IND 3TD rally

SD@JAC      W/L                 hmmmm more scoring than I thought


weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/10-6

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
101-85-6/102-87-3

somehow got sick again, I blame the lady who kept coughing while I stood inline behind her at the grocery checkout. I should've left and come back 15min later, but I still did ok in picks, though there were some obvious ones to me that I should've gotten correct if I could have seen through that flu/fog that clouded my thinking.

I'm still thinkin' BAL vs GB for SB... though PIT is playing outstanding

funny how NE & GB have similar numbers

AFC West is toughest division to assess, I do give DEN the nod at this time.

HOU D and ST will need to continue to play as well as DEN does and if CHI D & ST would do so as well, then they could get the wild card, but do you trust OC Martz??

HOU @CIN will be the game I'll be most curious to see the outcome, I think HOU at this time. NYG @DAL should be high scoring as to who will win.... beats me.

2011 week 13 Sun-Mon picks

12/04 1:00 PM

347 TEN 43½ *
348 BUF -1.5 UNDER
weather

12/04 1:00 PM
349 KC 37½ *
350 CHI -7 UNDER
weather

12/04 1:00 PM
351 OAK 43 OVER
352 MIA -3 *

12/04 1:00 PM
353 CIN 42½ **
354 PIT -6.5 over
windy

12/04 4:05 PM
355 BAL -6.5 *****
356 CLE 38 UNDER
RAIN

12/04 1:00 PM
357 NYJ -3 *
358 WAS 38½ UNDER
WAS has lost this season to BUF & MIA

12/04 1:00 PM
359 ATL -2.5 ****
360 HOU 37½ UNDER
HOU new QB Yates

12/04 1:00 PM
361 CAR 47½ **
362 TB -3 OVER
TB QB Freeman out???

12/04 8:30 PM
363 DET 53½ OVER
364 NO -9 **
Time-change to 08:30pm EST

12/04 1:00 PM
365 DEN 37½ *
366 MIN -1.5 UNDER
Time-change to 01:00pm EST

12/04 4:15 PM
367 STL 37½ *
368 SF -13 UNDER

12/04 4:15 PM
369 DAL -4.5 *
370 ARI 45½ under

371 GB -7 ***
372 NYG 53 under

12/04 1:00 PM
373 IND 48 UNDER
374 NE -20 *
Time-change to 01:00pm EST
IND new QB Orlovsky
IND DC Coyle fired, LB coach replaces

12/05 8:35 PM
375 SD -3 *
376 JAC 39½ UNDER
Game 1 after JAC HC fired on Tuesday,
interim HC Mel Tucker
JAC OC now JAC OC & QB coach
JAC QB now JAC WR coach
JAC WR coach fired
roster moves as well, cut WR, promoted RB from PS
3rd consecutive week w/2ndary player on IR OFY

SD has injuries that have affected play, starting LG & LT IR OFY

2011 week 13 - Thursday night pick

12/01 8:25 PM


301 PHI -3 **
302 SEA 43½ UNDER
odd teams as they are splitting 1st/2nd games on the road for PHI & @home for SEA,
so since PHI won last out on the road and SEA lost last time @home
As for total, PHI has had two games go over the above total since bye week and SEA has had one game, I favor the UNDER

update:

SEA WR#1 IR OFY, note SEA 1-4 SU on Thursday
see http://blog.seahawks.com/tag/mike-morgan/
change pick to PHI