2011 week 08 - results

GAME         ATS/TOTAL

IND@TEN  L/W              and IND woes continue, I know better, so why did I take pts?

JAC@HOU W/W

MIN@CAR L/L               MIN road win, impressive w/2nd start for QB

NO@STL    L/W             Huge upset - the improbable win/loss

ARI@BAL   L/L              ARI near upset leads into Q4, BAL O woes change in 2H

MIA@NYG L/W             MIA another Q4 lost to opponent

=====AM=above===PM=below==================================

WAS@BUF W/L            should've taken under

DET@DEN  W/L            should've taken over

NE@PIT      L/L              NE cutting corners, guess it's for the future

CLE@SF     W/W

CIN@SEA   W/L            neither D played up to par

DAL@PHI   L/L              must've been not think'n or too much?

SD@KC     W/L


weekly results 6-7/5-8


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL    61-52-3/54-60-2




Morning games only TEN & HOU as a fav wins all other games the dogs are barking w/upsets for MIN & STL. Only ARI @BAL game goes over total as well, all others under

Afternoon games I do the exact opposite picking sides well, but not totals, sigh...



Teams CoB (coming off bye)
5-1 SU(NYG, BUF, SF, CIN & PHI won, NE lost) / 4-2 ATS (NYG did not cover)


Teams GiB (going into bye)
2-2 SU/ATS (MIN & DET won / JAC & CAR lost)



Punting game turns up big in several games;

TEN blocked prTD crushed IND

ARI CB Peterson - lengthened lead w/prTD

STL P Jones - big leg, gave field position edge(x7) to STL

CIN WR Tate - sealed the win w/prTD





oddities?
=========

** BAL & SF (Harbaugh Bros) win/lose together **

SU if BAL wins SF wins, if BAL loses, SF loses (except when on bye)

ATS BAL 4-3, SF 6-0-1



** DAL opponents the following week win SU & ATS **

only opponent where this has not occurred was w/NE who had their bye week

(note NE lost coming off bye this weekend to PIT)

ATS/SU 5-0



** NYJ & SEA opponents the following week lose ATS **

not counting next week which are byes

ATS 0-5-1



** NYG opponents the following week lose ATS **

not counting next week which are byes

ATS 0-4

2011 week 08 Sun-Mon - picks

10/30 1:00 PM
207 IND 43½ *
208 TEN -8.5 UNDER
hard to pick, both teams coming off of bad games, so I'm think'n D's will step up...

10/30 1:00 PM
209 JAC 40½ Under
210 HOU -9.5 *
JAC on the road, good @home but not on the road. HOU D is playing very well, though safety will be out

10/30 1:00 PM
211 MIN 46½ OVER
212 CAR -3.5 *
young QB's CAR QB has the edge of 7 more games, both D's need upgrades

10/30 1:00 PM
213 NO -13.5 **
214 STL 47½ under
NO a 2nd dominating performance? Yes it appears so w/STL QB & LT out as well as a boatful of injuries over the past couple of months

10/30 1:00 PM
215 ARI 43 under
216 BAL -12.5 *
BAL embarassed last week, the big bounce back, w/ARI brought to slaughter

10/30 1:00 PM
217 MIA 42½ under
218 NYG -9.5 *****
NYG finally healthy and heading upwards, MIA is on the spiral down

10/30 4:05 PM
219 WAS 46 over
220 BUF -5.5 *
pts maybe too large for BUF, but WAS QB Beck is in 2nd start and last week didn't look really good vs CAR D which is weak. Besides WAS injuries are starting to mount

10/30 4:05 PM
221 DET -3 *
222 DEN 41½ UNDER
DEN looked really lucky last week, I don't think it happens twice in a row

10/30 4:15 PM
223 NE -3 *
224 PIT 52 over
Everyone know NE is doing remarkably well @PIT, they seem to be the only team that will ignore runnin' and pass all over PIT D

10/30 4:15 PM
225 CLE 38½ under
226 SF -8.5 **
Big number for SF to cover, but D is getting recognition for stoutness and CLE has a pretty good D as well, it's their O that sputters.


10/30 4:15 PM
227 CIN -3 **
228 SEA 37½ UNDER
if TJ started for SEA I would take SEA, but w/o QB TJ, backup QB Whitehurst is really having problems. CIN got SEA in the right spot. Under is the better bet w/both O's needing help and both D's playing well

10/30 8:30 PM
229 DAL 50 *
230 PHI -3 over
Hopefully this game will be full of fireworks, DAL D has a big edge and PHI D has not lived up to promise and I don't expect to do so for awhile. CoB PHI is 18-4, a remarkable record, but I'm bucking the trend.

10/31 8:35 PM
231 SD -3.5 Over
232 KC 44 **
SD may have been exposed vs NYJ last week in 2nd Half and KC needs to reclaim last years magic

2011 week 07 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
CHI@TB L/W guess CHI doesn't need as much rest as TB
WAS@CAR L/L
SD@NYJ W/L NYJ 2ndHalf comeback
SEA@CLE L/L
HOU@TEN W/L HOU is now in control of AFC South
DEN@MIA L/W
ATL@DET L/W ATL on the upswing, DET on the downswing
KC@OAK W/L
PIT@ARI L/W
STL@DAL W/W
GB@MIN L/L MIN best green QB this weekend
IND@NO W/L
BAL@JAC L/W BAL O, O woe is me

weekly 5-8/6-7
results


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
55-45-3/49-52-2

teams GiB (going into bye) 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
teams CoB (Coming off bye) 2-4 SU/ATS

green QB's 0-fer, WAS,SEA,STL,OAK,MIN (should MIA be included?)
except for DEN
BAL lost, biggest surprise

2011 week 07 Sun-Mon - picks

10/23 1:00 PM
401 CHI -1 under
402 TB 44 *****
@Wembley Stadium, England
CHI s/b max protect, D is suspect w/injs (DE Peppers)
TB w/o DT McCoy, but return of TJack really strengthen 2ndary
Hard to pick CHI w/Jekyl & Hyde O, TB tends to start slow
which means an under for half, but I suspect O's heat up after half
noticed...TB arrived on Monday, CHI set to leave on Thursday
only 56 hrs 'til kickoff for CHI
w/recent news, change of thought - TB will win easily, favorite/under combo

10/23 1:00 PM
403 WAS 43½ **
404 CAR -2.5 UNDER
WAS new QB Beck, 2ndary should get a couple of ints
CAR w/o RT Otah, should have problems vs WAS DL

10/23 1:00 PM
405 SD -2 UNDER
406 NYJ 44 *
SD w/o TE Gates is not an effective passO, runO is ok
I don't think SD will take chances like MIA last week
NYJ where's runO & passO? D is still top half

10/23 1:00 PM
407 SEA 41 *
408 CLE -3 over
SEA CoB, CLE w/o RB, OL should have problems vs SEA DL

10/23 1:00 PM
409 HOU 44½ *
410 TEN -3 under?
HOU w/o WR#1 Johnson & LB M Williams
TEN w/o WR#1 Britt & SS Hope, CoB runnin' more? spent bye fixin' runO

10/23 1:00 PM
411 DEN 43 UNDER
412 MIA -2 *
DEN CoB, new QB Tebow, traded away best WR
MIA QB Moore 2nd start, D is better than O

10/23 1:00 PM
413 ATL 47½ under?
414 DET -3.5 *
ATL s/b playing runO, ball control
DET D can be gashed w/traps, starter RB out
I don't have great faith in this pick, I could easily flip it

10/23 4:05 PM
415 KC 42 *
416 OAK -4 over
OAK new QB Palmer, suspect timing w/WR & vs 2ndary s/b off

10/23 4:05 PM
417 PIT -3.5 OVER
418 ARI 42½ *
PIT lots of inj's
ARI w/o FS Rhodes, CoB
I suspect PIT may still win, but the half point could be the winner ATS

10/23 4:15 PM
419 STL 43½ UNDER
420 DAL -12 ****

10/23 4:15 PM
421 GB -9 *
422 MIN 47 UNDER

10/23 8:30 PM
423 IND 48½ UNDER
424 NO -14 *
If NO was on the road, I would take IND

10/24 8:35 PM
425 BAL -7.5 ***
426 JAC 39 UNDER

2011 trade - break or make raiders?

Instead of myself breaking it down on CIN trade of QB Palmer for OAK future picks this podcast w/Bill Simmons (ESPN) and Michael Lombardi (former Raider personnel) http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7119791
will be a point of view, that the majority of pundits seem to be taking as a great win for CIN and a great loss for OAK.

I'm thinkin' along another line, that if OAK goes to the playoffs, this will be a win for OAK this season. If OAK goes to the SuperBowl in the next 2-3 years w/QB Carson Palmer then all the pundits will need to retract everything they've said about how to manage a team. There's always a constant tug -o- war between managers and personnel people. I'll side w/personnel as I believe if you don't take the chance and Palmer still has a lot of football left IMO, then you're always playing it safe. Teams that play safe too much, can be good, but they'll never be great.
OAK has some real positives. They are really a run first team, in a pass first league. Other teams are showing problems handling OAK runO. If every team is really geared to stop the pass and this really shows w/the number of starting lineups for defenses in the league w/nickel packages appearing most often this year. Advantage OAK.

The real question of "Is QB Palmer worth the future picks?" will be answered partly this season and in whole in the next few years.

We'll see, we'll see....

2011 week 06 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
STL@GB W/W
JAC@PIT W/L
PHI@WAS L/W
SF@DET W/W -DET O woes caught up w/them
CAR@ATL L/L
IND@CIN L/W -IND D w/CBs need fix'ng
BUF@NYG W/L
HOU@BAL W/W
CLE@OAK W/W
DAL@NE W/L
NO@TB L/W -upset of the week, TB reinstated Tanard Jackson played well
MIN@CHI W/L -CHI seems to be jekyl & hyde
MIA@NYJ L/L -if you can't score, you can't win - MIA

weekly 8-5/7-6
results

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
50-37-3/43-45-2


Totals O/U 3-10 reversing the over trend? temporary?
teams coming off bye 1-3 SU/ATS (BAL / STL,WAS,MIA)
teams going into bye 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
NE & NYG win SU, lose ATS
BUF lost SU, win ATS

Noticed that as BAL wins, so does SF
and as BAL loses, SF lost as well - the tie in is w/HC's - the Harbaugh Bros

NFC East is still up for grabs

GB @DET on Thanksgiving is for the NFC North

TB is in the drivers seat for the NFC South

SF can just split NFC West games and take division

NE & BAL look well on their way to taking their division

As long as OAK gets past KC next week,
SD & OAK on Veterans Day will be for AFC West

The AFC South is a race between HOU & TEN,
HOU & TEN have two division games in a row
TEN has the advantage of a bye week to prep for games
and HOU is w/o Mario Williams.
I still like HOU, TEN lacks a true #1WR and their runO
has sputtered this year. TEN D is playing well, I don't
believe TEN O will be able to change/improve much more, advantage HOU.

2011 week 06 Sun-Mon - picks

10/16 1:00 PM
201 STL 47½ Under
202 GB -14.5 ***

10/16 1:00 PM
203 JAC 40½ *
204 PIT -12.5 over

10/16 1:00 PM
205 PHI -3 Under
206 WAS 47 *

10/16 1:00 PM
207 SF 46½ *
208 DET -4 under
think'n it'll be under the half total, so under as well for whole game.... just think'n...

10/16 1:00 PM
209 CAR 50 *
210 ATL -3.5 over

10/16 1:00 PM
211 IND 40½ **
212 CIN -6.5 OVER

10/16 1:00 PM
213 BUF 50½ *
214 NYG -3.5 under

10/16 4:05 PM
215 HOU 45 under
216 BAL -7 **

10/16 4:05 PM
217 CLE 44½ under
218 OAK -6.5 *****

10/16 4:15 PM
219 DAL 55½ **
220 NE -6.5 OVER

10/16 4:15 PM
221 NO -6.5 *
222 TB 49½ under

10/16 8:30 PM
223 MIN 41½ under
224 CHI -2 *

10/17 8:35 PM
225 MIA 42½ *
226 NYJ -6.5 over

2011 week 05 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
KC@IND W/W
ARI@MIN L/L -should've seen this one
PHI@BUF W/L
OAK@HOU L/W - I could've changed pick due to Al Davis passing, but I didn't
NO@CAR L/W
CIN@JAC W/L
TEN@PIT L/L -again, should've known better
SEA@NYG W/W
TB@SF W/L
NYJ@NE P/L
SD@DEN L/L - close game,
GB@ATL W/L
CHI@DET W/L

weekly
results 7-5-1/4-9


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
42-32-3/36-39-2

AFC South 0-4 ATS/SU this weekend
West Coast teams 4-0 (OAK, SEA, SD, SF)
[ARI & DEN aren't coastal]
Over/Under 9-4 -so many overs again.....
Road/Home 6-6-1
Favorite/Dog 6-6-1

2011 week 05 Sun-Mon - picks

10/09 1:00 PM
405 KC 38½ *
406 IND -2.5 over

10/09 1:00 PM
407 ARI 45 *
408 MIN -2.5 over

10/09 1:00 PM
409 PHI -2.5 under
410 BUF 49½ *

10/09 1:00 PM
411 OAK 48½ under
412 HOU -6 *

10/09 1:00 PM
413 NO -6.5 *
414 CAR 52 OVER

10/09 1:00 PM
415 CIN 37 ***
416 JAC -2.5 UNDER

10/09 1:00 PM
417 TEN 39½ ***
418 PIT -3.5 UNDER

10/09 1:00 PM
419 SEA 43½ *
420 NYG -10 OVER

10/09 4:05 PM
421 TB 41 under
422 SF -3 **

10/09 4:15 PM
423 NYJ 49½ *
424 NE -9 UNDER

10/09 4:15 PM
425 SD -4 UNDER
426 DEN 46 *

10/09 8:30 PM
427 GB -6 **
428 ATL 54 OVER

10/10 8:35 PM
429 CHI 47½ OVER
430 DET -6 *

2011 week 04 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
DET@DAL W/W
NO@JAC W/W
SF@PHI W/L
WAS@STL W/W
TEN@CLE W/L
BUF@CIN L/W - upset of the week, BUF led 17-3 @H
MIN@KC W/L
CAR@CHI L/L - unexpected CAR surprises
PIT@HOU W/w
ATL@SEA W/W
NYG@ARI W/W
MIA@SD L/L - MIA QB Henne out Q1
DEN@GB W/L
NE@OAK L/L - I thought the total was a bit high
NYJ@BAL W/W
IND@TB W/L

weekly
results 12-4/8-8


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
35-27-2/32-30-2

a good weekend, still I can do better w/total

2011 week 04 Sun-Mon - picks

10/02 1:00 PM
207 DET 46½ ***
208 DAL -2.5 Over

10/02 1:00 PM
209 NO -7 *****
210 JAC 45 under

10/02 1:00 PM
211 SF 44 ***
212 PHI -9.5 under

10/02 1:00 PM
213 WAS -3 **
214 STL 43½ Under

10/02 1:00 PM
215 TEN 38½ ****
216 CLE PK under

10/02 1:00 PM
217 BUF -3 ****
218 CIN 43½ under

10/02 1:00 PM
219 MIN -3 OVER
220 KC 40 ****

10/02 1:00 PM
221 CAR 42½ under
222 CHI -6.5 **

10/02 1:00 PM
223 PIT 45 under
224 HOU -3.5 **

10/02 4:05 PM
225 ATL -5 over
226 SEA 39 *

10/02 4:05 PM
227 NYG -1.5 *****
228 ARI 44½ over

10/02 4:15 PM
229 MIA 44½ ***
230 SD -7 over

10/02 4:15 PM
231 DEN 46½ under
232 GB -12.5 *

10/02 4:15 PM
233 NE -6 over
234 OAK 55 ****

10/02 8:30 PM
235 NYJ 43 over
236 BAL -4 ***

10/03 8:35 PM
237 IND 40½ ***
238 TB -10 under