2011 week 03 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
SF@CIN W/L
NE@BUF W/W
HOU@NO L/W
NYG@PHI L/W
MIA@CLE L/W
DEN@TEN L/W
DET@MIN P/W
JAC@CAR W/W
KC@SD L/W
NYJ@OAK W/W
BAL@STL W/W
ATL@TB L/L
ARI@SEA L/L
GB@CHI L/W
PIT@IND L/L
WAS@DAL W/W
weekly
results 6-9-1/12-4

yeah totals!!

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
23-23-2/24-22-2

note: last week ATS/TOTAL should have been
17-14-1/12-18-2

Just a comment on coaching decisions
to go for it on 4th down close to the goal line and with a small lead (DEN w/HC Fox 4pts and MIN w/HC Frazier 3pts);

stretch your lead, I know it's the safe thing to do, but you'll force your opponent to score TD's to win or tie.

it just seemed like a mano y mano decision, that made it easier for the opponent to win the game.

It's almost as if it's still preseason and HC's are challenging/testing their OL

2011 week 03 Sun-Mon - picks

09/25 1:00 PM
395 SF 38½ ***
396 CIN -2.5 over

09/25 1:00 PM
397 NE -7 **OVER**
398 BUF 54½ *

09/25 1:00 PM
399 HOU 52 *
400 NO -3.5 ***OVER***

09/25 1:00 PM
401 NYG 47½ under
402 PHI -8.5 *

09/25 1:00 PM
403 MIA -1 *
404 CLE 41 Under

09/25 1:00 PM
405 DEN 43½ Under
406 TEN -7 *****

09/25 1:00 PM
407 DET -3 ***
408 MIN 45 over

09/25 1:00 PM
409 JAC 43 Under
410 CAR -3.5 *

09/25 4:05 PM
411 KC 44½ Under
412 SD -14 *

09/25 4:05 PM
413 NYJ -3 Over
414 OAK 41½ *

09/25 4:05 PM
415 BAL -5.5 *
416 STL 42 over

09/25 4:15 PM
417 ATL 44½ *
418 TB -2 Over

09/25 4:15 PM
419 ARI -3.5 *
420 SEA 43 OVER

09/25 4:15 PM
421 GB -4.5 under
422 CHI 44½ *

09/25 8:25 PM
423 PIT -10.5 *
424 IND 39½ Under

09/26 8:35 PM
425 WAS 46 **
426 DAL -6.5 Under

2011 week 02 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
CHI@NO L/L
KC@DET W/L
JAC@NYJ L/W
OAK@BUF L/W
ARI@WAS L/W
BAL@TEN L/L
SEA@PIT W/W
GB@CAR L/L
TB@MIN L/L
CLE@IND L/L
DAL@SF P/W
HOU@MIA W/L
SD@NE W/W
CIN@DEN W/L
PHI@ATL L/W
STL@NYG W/P
weekly
results 6-9-1/6-9-1


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
17-14-1/12-18-1

yea who travell'd far, from west to east OAK, ARI, SEA, SD
add a L to the SU column

as I outsmarted myself this past week, I'll leave it at that.

as you'll note O/U totals 11-5-1 this week and last week was 13-3
will this Over trend continue this coming week?

2011 week 02 Sun-Mon - picks

ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)

09/18 1:00 PM
197 CHI 47½ ***
198 NO -6 OVER

09/18 1:00 PM
199 KC 45½ *UNDER*
200 DET -8 *

09/18 1:00 PM
201 JAC 38½ **
202 NYJ -9.5 under

09/18 1:00 PM
203 OAK 41½ over
204 BUF -4 *

09/18 1:00 PM
205 ARI 44½ Under
206 WAS -4 *****

09/18 1:00 PM
207 BAL -6 *****
208 TEN 38½ under

09/18 1:00 PM
209 SEA 40 under
210 PIT -13.5 *

09/18 1:00 PM
211 GB -10 ***
212 CAR 45½ under

09/18 1:00 PM
213 TB 41½ UNDER
214 MIN -2.5 *

09/18 1:00 PM
215 CLE -2 under
216 IND 39 *

09/18 4:05 PM
217 DAL -3 *
218 SF 41 over

09/18 4:15 PM
219 HOU -3 **
220 MIA 48 OVER

09/18 4:15 PM
221 SD 53½ over
222 NE -7 *

09/18 4:15 PM
223 CIN 40 ***
224 DEN -3.5 under

09/18 8:25 PM
225 PHI -2.5 *
226 ATL 49½ OVER

09/19 8:35 PM
227 STL 44 Under
228 NYG -6 *

2011 week 01 - results

GAME RESULT(ATS/TOTAL )
NO@GB W/W
PIT@BAL L/L - surprise, surprise
DET@TB W/W
ATL@CHI L/L - CHI woe is me, not again - they won - convincingly
BUF@KC W/W
IND@HOU W/W
PHI@STL L/P - interesting game, PHI fumble return for TD - a turning point in the game?
CIN@CLE W/L
TEN@JAC W/L - what was I thinking for total???
NYG@WAS W/L
CAR@ARI W/L
SEA@SF W/L
MIN@SD L/W
DAL@NYJ W/L
NE@MIA W/L
OAK@DEN L/W

results 11-5/6-9-1

Very good ATS and not good at all for totals....

I review'd totals once again and now I noticed that there were only two games with the total set above the NFL average total of 42-45pts. If I had picked overs for all games with "low" totals, I could have been 10-1 in picks (only the TEN @JAC game stayed true to form, PHI @STL had a normal total and was either a Push or Under, 44 or 44.5 and the IND @HOU total was set high at 46.5) I wonder if next week the totals will be set a bit higher? Or will it be kept low due to teams haven't had a real offseason and are still cranking up? ATL, PIT, maybe even TEN?

As for a reason to why the totals are higher, perhaps its just tackling... or lack there of. Just look at special teams play, I was surprised by the number of runbacks, I was thinking more knees in the endzone and thus drives begin at the twenty, but instead I think ST coordinators may be wanting more returns as tackling for rookies and other ST players will be lacking in fundamentals.
There were 3 kick offs and 6 punts (by my count) returned for TDs and this weekend. That's more than half of the games w/a TD by ST.

The sportsbooks could be torn between setting the total to high, which the sharks may like and bet large amounts and move the line lower or setting the total to low and the public will drive it higher, since the public favors the over. An interesting dilemma, which I think will favor the public. After a brief review of the lines available at vegasinsider.com I noticed 4 games w/lines set between 42-45, 4 games set 46 or higher and the remaining 8 games are set at 41 or less.
This is 2 more for the average and 2 more for above average than last week, so 4 games less than average were taken away, seems a bit cautious to me. I'll hazard a guess that 8 games will fall between 42-45 and 4 above and 4 below, let's see what happens next week.

2011 week 01 Sun-Mon - picks

ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)

09/11 1:00 PM
453 PIT 36 *
454 BAL -1.5 Under

09/11 1:00 PM
455 DET 41½ *
456 TB -1.5 **OVER**

09/11 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 **
458 CHI 40½ under

09/11 1:00 PM
459 BUF 40½ *
460 KC -5.5 Over

09/11 1:00 PM
461 IND 43½ under
462 HOU -8.5 *****

09/11 1:00 PM
463 PHI -4 OVER
464 STL 44 *

09/11 1:00 PM
465 CIN 35½ *
466 CLE -6.5 Under

09/11 1:00 PM
467 TEN 37 Over
468 JAC -1.5 *

09/11 4:15 PM
469 NYG -3 under
470 WAS 39 **

09/11 4:15 PM
471 CAR 37 UNDER
472 ARI -7 ***

09/11 4:15 PM
473 SEA 37½ under
474 SF -5.5 *

09/11 4:15 PM
475 MIN 41½ Over
476 SD -8.5 *

09/11 8:25 PM
477 DAL 40½ *
478 NYJ -6 UNDER

09/12 7:00 PM
479 NE -7 Under
480 MIA 45½ *

09/12 10:15 PM
481 OAK 40½ Over
482 DEN -3 *

2011 week 01 Thursday night - picks

451 New Orleans 47
452 Green Bay -4

ok, so I'm first thinking, GB SU should win (money line)
and then that total looks awfully low, it should be 10pts more (so Over total 47)
that leaves the spread and -4 means a TD and nothing less will win, so 30-24 seems like a good number (GB).

which is the better bet? take over 47 total points

BTW numbers opened up at -4.5 and 46.5, so $$ is flowing to NO and Over