NFL 09 week 03 - results

side total game
L W TEN @NYJ
L W JAC @HOU
L L KC @PHI
W L CLE @BAL
W L NYG @TB
L W WAS @DET
L L GB @STL
L L SF @MIN
L L ATL @NE
W L CHI @SEA
W L NO @BUF
L W MIA @SD
W L PIT @CIN
L W DEN @OAK
L L IND @ARI
L W CAR @DAL
5-11 6-10 results for wk 03
22-26 16-32 for the year(fty)
7-9 favored side or total wk03 (bold & green)
23-25 favored side or total for the yr

4-1 best bet (green)


even worst than last week, the only thing that was good was the best bets, everything else I smelt it up

Week 03 -'09

09/27 1:00 PM
401 TEN 37 **** unlucky fumble led 21-7lw 2WKS UNLUCKY
402 NYJ -2.5 over?
Taking the pts, but I'm not convinced as NYJ D is stellar and is a top 3 D, TEN is either unlucky or just make more mental errors than last year

09/27 1:00 PM
403 JAC 47 OVER? youngest D weak passD
404 HOU -4 ***LG OUT? lucky lw? weak runD weakpassD

09/27 1:00 PM
405 KC 39½ * STcoverage30ydline
406 PHI -8 under STcoverage33ydline
if KC QB Cassel sucks again, PHI covers

09/27 1:00 PM
407 CLE 39 over weak runD
408 BAL -13.5 ** weak passD
CLE QB's just too puzzling

09/27 1:00 PM
409 NYG -6.5 **** weak runD
410 TB 45 over weak runD lost last 2 by 13pts, secondary too many big plays/TDs
NYG might be the best play of theday

09/27 1:00 PM
411 WAS -6.5 ** LG OUT? lucky lw?
412 DET 38½ under D issues x3?4?
I don't think WAS will lose, I'm just not convinced they will cover

09/27 1:00 PM
413 GB -6.5 **UNDER** OL issue STcoverage41-37ydline(bad coverage)
414 STL 41½ ** C/LT issue unlucky lw? could be painful
though STL is the worst team on O and D, I'm taking a chance @home w/STL 0-2

09/27 1:00 PM
415 SF 39½ *under STcoverage26ydlineSTOUT
416 MIN -7 * STreturn39-44ydline(amazing)
tough to pick I believe MIN will win SU not so sure about ATS


09/27 1:00 PM
417 ATL 47 * wowSTcoverage22ydline Ohot
418 NE -4.5 over

09/27 4:05 PM
419 CHI -2.5 *lucky lw?
420 SEA 37 **UNDER** OL issues????????
SEA is just too beat up to win

09/27 4:05 PM
421 NO -6 *** STstart37.5ydlineWHEW
422 BUF 52 over young OL, weak pass D
NO SB bound?

09/27 4:15 PM
423 MIA 44 *
424 SD -5.5 under
I'm thinking that MIA ball control will work vs SD

09/27 4:15 PM
425 PIT -3.5 **UNDER** unlucky 2mFG lw
426 CIN 37 *
just thinking if PIT can't run on road, they should be giving up pts

09/27 4:15 PM
427 DEN -2 under D doUbelieve? stout runD
428 OAK 36½ ***
I know, I know OAK gave up way too many yds to KC lw, but this week they should run and run

09/27 8:20 PM
429 IND 48 over weak runD
430 ARI -3 * ?
This game will go over as both teams are pass oriented w/a lot of 3,4&5 WR's sets which extends games and I'm just taking ARI 'cause they're at home, but IND could steal another game

09/28 8:35 PM
431 CAR 47½ * DL/depth/D issues x4 pass'g? no consistency
432 DAL -8.5 under TO's?
If I was CAR I'd run alot more and if I was DAL I'd do the same, they both need the win, just who wants it more?

Who's HOT picking teams?

Bill Simmons (ESPN analyst) is HOT see "Nobody believed me!" These are his week 3 NFL picks, you can find his week 1 and 2 picks as well online though they are not obvious.
see Week 1 = "The NFL enters the Tyson Zone"
see Week 2 = "In Jake we trust"
ATS I daresay none have been better than the host of "SPORTS GUY'S WORLD".
SU Brian Baldinger has a slight lead over Sterling Sharpe w/Joe Theisman lagging several games behind the two front runners at NFL network. Again their picks are not easily found on the NFL.com site, but they are doing very well.
At least they're easier than trying to discern the NFL Live analysts picks (videos are nice, but put it down in writing) or a site such as ProFootball Weekly which I know picks, but you'll need to pay for "insider knowledge" or follow their rss feed (which I don't do).

NFL 09 week 02 - results

side total game
L L OAK @KC
L L HOU @TEN
W L NE @NYJ
L L CIN @GB
W L MIN @DET
W L NO @PHI
W L CAR @ATL
L W STL @WAS
L L ARI @JAC
W L SEA @SF
L L TB @BUF
L W CLE @DEN
W W BAL @SD
L L PIT @CHI
W W NYG @DAL
W L IND @MIA
8-8 4-12 results for wk02
17-15 10-22 for the year(fty)


7-9 favored side or total (bold picks)
16-16 favored side or total (bold picks)

fty

owww....

what a bad week

I guess I should've played the "could've/should/ve won" angle which would have been good w/OAK,CIN,BUF but not w/TEN

should've lost angle NE, but not DEN

maybe the "I was embarrassed" angle is better, HOU, CAR, CIN, ARI, STL, CHI, BUF

maybe even apply to DEN as "I was embarrassed to win"

BUT none of that explains how bad I did w/totals, just atrocious, sucks to be me

Week 02 - '09

09/20 1:00 PM
205 OAK 38½ over***
206 KC -3 ***
Wondering if OAK will do well on road, they need to run much more often KC just played better after block'd punt returned for TD, thinking it will carry over to this week

09/20 1:00 PM
207 HOU 40½ under
208 TEN -6.5 *****
6.5? s/b 14.5 TEN in a rout

09/20 1:00 PM
209 NE -3.5 over
210 NYJ 46 ***
NE MLB MAYO (RoY LY) OUT
NYJ D is motivated and NE D might be a little green

09/20 1:00 PM
211 CIN 42 UNDER
212 GB -9 *****
IF CIN show'd any signs of O life +9 would be nice, but GB @home could cover by 20pts even w/o SS Bigby

09/20 1:00 PM
213 MIN -10 **
214 DET 46½ over*
-10? perhaps -20 is better

09/20 1:00 PM
215 NO 46½ *
216 PHI -1 UNDER
w/McNabb out, can't see how PHI will score enough pts

09/20 1:00 PM
217 CAR 43 under
218 ATL -6.5 **
CAR had a miserable wk1, they should bounce back, just not enough on the road @ATL

09/20 1:00 PM
219 STL 37 UNDER
220 WAS -9.5 *****
STL NO points, zero pts, 0 pts, WAS is hungrier for a win and should blast away at STL

09/20 1:00 PM
221 ARI 42½ under
222 JAC -3 *?
JAC has youngest starting DL/front 7
ARI has 4th best rush D from wk1
Tough to pick, I could make an argument for either side, taking the pts, the total is the better pick

09/20 4:05 PM
223 SEA 39½ over
224 SF -1.5 *
Early Div game to one up the other, SEA LB's could have a problem in this game and I expect Hasselbeck to increase his int total


09/20 4:05 PM
225 TB 42 *
226 BUF -4.5 under?
BUF DE & MLB OUT
another tough one to decide, both TB and BUF hung into Q4 in wk1, I'm just think'n BUF will have an emo letdown after last min lost to NE in wk1

09/20 4:15 PM
227 CLE 37½ **
228 DEN -3 under
CLE who's RB? all are nick'd, FB L Vickers???

09/20 4:15 PM
229 BAL 40½ **
230 SD -3 over
Can't believe both teams D(and ST w/BAL) gave up so many pts in wk1.
SD OL appears to be nick'd up, maybe sproles will keep this close, but SD D had a tough time w/OAK run game LW, BAL run game is much, much better


09/20 4:15 PM
231 PIT -3 ***
232 CHI 37½ over
CHI MLB & SLB OUT
both teams have inj's to key players (out for the year), Cutler needs more seasoning w/his WR's, PIT doesn't

09/20 8:20 PM
233 NYG 44½ *
234 DAL -3 over
This should be a physical game, total is way too high for a normal game time slot, but since it's on snf and DAL QB Romo can hit WR's in stride, look for this to go over as NYG 2ndary is a bit young


09/21 8:35 PM
235 IND -3 *
236 MIA 42 UNDER
MIA loss first two games LY, the trend continues this yr...

NFL 09 week 01 - results

side total game
W W TEN @PIT
L L MIA @ATL
W L KC @BAL
L L PHI @CAR
L W DEN @CIN
W L MIN @CLE
L L NYJ @HOU
W W JAC @IND
W L DET @NO
W L DAL @TB
W W SF @ARI
W L WAS @NYG
L W STL @SEA
W L CHI @GB
L L BUF @NE
L W SD @OAK
9-7 6-10 results for wk01

9-7 favored side or total (bold picks)

I was doing fairly well until the SNF & MNF games, sigh....


I was suprised by...
HOU, my thinking was NYJ D had 2 key players susp'd for game, I really thought HOU O would take advantage and their D would have less reps to play

MIA, though last year they also loss every out of conference and I should have
considered this as well

PHI O gell'd earlier than I thought it would (I was giving it a few more weeks)

BAL allowed so many points

STL O was so inept (0 pts) vs SEA D

DEN was very lucky w/tipped pass for TD at end of game, so next week their luck runs out

except for STL & CHI games, div dogs won the money ATS (JAC, SF, WAS, BUF, OAK)

Did you notice the three teams that fired their OC's (KC, TB, BUF), all did much better than I thought they would, good to very good team effort, will this continue into next week?

Week 01 - '09

09/10 8:30 PM
451 TEN 35 **
452 PIT -6 UNDER
both teams will be up for this showcase game, TEN has more to prove

09/13 1:00 PM
453 MIA 43 *
454 ATL -4 over
unsure of this game, MIA was 0-4 LY playing OC(out of conference) games

09/13 1:00 PM
455 KC 36 UNDER
456 BAL -13 *******
KC-QB-Cassel-Doubtful

09/13 1:00 PM
457 PHI -1 UNDER
458 CAR 43½ *****
CAR-WR-Smith-Questionable
It's not often that CAR is a home underdog, and they have the running game to control the clock. PHI OL has not gell'd IMO thus, CAR even w/their D ?'s rate the edge


09/13 1:00 PM
459 DEN 43½ UNDER***
460 CIN -4.5 *
DEN-QBs-Orton, Simms-Questionable CIN-QB-Palmer-Probable
DEN has too much chaos, CIN may yet fall to "Hard Knocks" curse, but in this case I don't think so

09/13 1:00 PM
461 MIN -4 *****
462 CLE 40½ UNDER
MIN-QB-Favre-Probable CLE-WR-Stallworth-susp'd
CLE is trying to get any advantage it can, withholding designated starters @QB & RB,
not good for fantasy owners, but it's a weakness I've seen before. MIN has deep elite talent at many positions, spread should be -14

09/13 1:00 PM
463 NYJ 43 OVER
464 HOU -4.5 *
NYJ-DE-Ellis & LB Pace-susp'd
HOU front 7 are young and not sound, HOU O will have to get the lead and not let up on the gas all year long

09/13 1:00 PM
465 JAC 44½ ******
466 IND -7 UNDER
JAC-RB-Jones-Drew-Probable
A division game where IND is again giving up too many pts, JAC will be way UP

09/13 1:00 PM
467 DET 48½ UNDER
468 NO -13 ******
DET-QB-Stafford-Starting QB
DET-RB-Smith
NO 2xDEs SUSP'D
DET's best hope is to run the ball and not give NO QB Brees much time w/ball
maybe total is a bit high. I expect NO D to be suspect to any play on the edges

09/13 1:00 PM
469 DAL -6 *****
470 TB 39½ UNDER
TB new OC, DAL should ROMP

09/13 4:15 PM
471 SF 46½ *
472 ARI -6.5 UNDER**
A division game where I'll take dog, expecting SF to RUN and eat clock up

09/13 4:15 PM
473 WAS 37½ *
474 NYG -6.5 UNDER****
Another division game where D's are stout and O's have their ?'s

09/13 4:15 PM
475 STL 41½ ****
476 SEA -8.5 UNDER
STL-QB-Bulger-??s
STL is rebuilding, but I just don't like the youth along SEA OL and their best CB will be out of the game. Bulger was a top 5 QB, if his OL holds and create holes for RB Jackson, this could be the UPSET of the day

09/13 8:20 PM
477 CHI 46 OVER***
478 GB -3.5 ***
Bitter rivals, introduces CHI QB Cutler to the new 3-4 D of GB. GB O should have its way, it's the SNF game and thus the over, else I would have thought under

09/14 7:00 PM
479 BUF 47½ UNDER
480 NE -11 *****
BUF-RB-Lynch-susp'd
BUF, OC fired, and is woeful vs 3-4 D's and their AFC E bretheren

09/14 10:15 PM
481 SD -9 *
482 OAK 43 OVER
SD-LB-Merriman-?suspension?
Except for Merriman(distraction?), it really tough to take the home dog. I'd have to see alot more from OAK O and D, besides their HC has a distraction of his own

09 Preseason week 4

09/03 6:30 PM
101 DET 34 over*
102 BUF -3.5 *
total headin' under (-2)
BUF going up as fav (-1)

09/03 7:00 PM
103 PHI 37 *
104 NYJ -2.5 under

09/03 7:30 PM
105 NYG -3 *
106 NE 36 under

09/03 7:30 PM
107 WAS 35 under**
108 JAC -6 *
major line move to -6 (3pts)

09/03 7:30 PM
109 BAL 35½ under
110 ATL -2.5 *

09/03 7:30 PM
111 IND 36½ under**
112 CIN -3.5 *
total headin' over (+2)

09/03 8:00 PM
113 PIT 33½ *
114 CAR -3 under
total headin' under (-1.5)

09/03 8:00 PM
115 CLE 36 *
116 CHI -2.5 under*
total headin' under (-1)

09/03 8:00 PM
117 MIA 36½ under*
118 NO -3 *
total headin' under (-1)

09/03 8:00 PM
119 GB 36 under****
120 TEN -3.5 *

09/03 8:00 PM
121 KC -1 *****
122 STL 36 under
major line move to -1 (+3.5pts)

09/03 9:00 PM
123 ARI -3 *
124 DEN 36 under*
ARI going up as fav (-2)

09/03 10:00 PM
125 OAK 37 under
126 SEA -3 *
total headin' over (+1.5)
OAK going up as dog (+1)

09/04 7:00 PM
137 HOU 34 *
138 TB -3 under

09/04 8:00 PM
139 DAL 36 under**
140 MIN -3 *

09/04 10:00 PM
141 SF 37 under*
142 SD -4 *

results - Preseason wk3

Totals really killed me this week, but I guess this week balances out the past two weeks.

GB is looking very good, the early season game vs MIN should be very interesting.

Best Sleeper team: JAC, some would look to SEA but they have O-Line and pass protection issues, perhaps a more run oriented O will be better.

Bottom 5 in no particular order:
DET
CIN
KC
STL
OAK
other candidates: BUF, CLE, TB, STL, DEN, SF