Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Buffalo Bills are they predictable?

Bills again turned upside down by 3-4 D is a highly interesting view. So what about this year?
BUF will play the same amount of 3-4 and 4-3 D's this season.
3-4's NE, NYJ, MIA twice, CLE & KC once
4-3's ATL, CAR, NO, TB,(NFC S), IND, TEN, JAC, HOU,(AFC S)

OK, so BUF has been 7-9 for the (has it been) past 3 yrs? and always lose to their AFC E rivals, but CLE? and KC? I think depending on how CLE and KC are "gell'g" I'd stick w/BUF.

As far as the 4-3 teams, the AFC S is tough w/maybe HOU and maybe JAC as possible wins. The NFC S w/ATL & NO playing well I don't see a win, if CAR D can hold it together, that'll be a really tough win and TB is the only real possibility..

So for '09, a record of 6-10 is optimistic and 7-9 is the goal, w/8-8 over their heads.

And the betting angle would be to play the BUF SU(straight up) on the money line as a dog vs (weaker)4-3 & 3-4 teams, stick to the fav's w/the stronger teams (though you'll probably be looking at least a -225 fav). The Over when playing 4-3 teams and maybe Unders w/3-4 opponents.
I haven't check'd their ATS record so I can't state a position, but BUF should be getting points for the majority of their games w/maybe the CLE, KC & TB games as fav's and the game in Toronto vs NYJ does them no favors, which I rate NYJ w/the edge (now).

Game 1 @NE, getting 11pts (Hilton), Brady's 1st game back since inj, he'll air it out, though I think he maybe rusty (preseason games appears to align w/this thought). BUF and their "no huddle" O will get them more reps, but will it be effective? I doubt it, Belichick is running a tougher camp this year, the focus is much higher this yr at the beginning of the season. BUF appears to have some OL issues. I'd have to give NE the edge in covering fairly easy. BUF only real edge is at ST where coach Bobby April may take advantage of the change in rules for only two players to form a wedge. He could have a new zone(s) alignment to help the PR, maybe a wing(s)? and if NE get's out of their lanes, who knows? But this is unlikely and if Brady & Co. get a 2 TD lead, I think they'll extend it, Edwards may press and int's/fumbles will kill drives.
BUF should be getting +17.5 then I would stop and think....

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