08/27 7:00 PM
251 JAC 37½ ****
252 PHI -7 over***
PHI-RB-Westbrook?
08/27 7:30 PM
253 STL 35 *
254 CIN -2.5 UNDER*
STL-QB-Bulger-OUT, WR-Avery-OUT
CIN-QB-Palmer-OUT
08/27 8:00 PM
255 MIA 35 ***
256 TB -2.5 over
TB-WR-Bryant-OUT
08/28 8:00 PM
257 NE -3.5 **
258 WAS 37 UNDER
WAS-WR-Moss?
08/28 10:00 PM
259 GB 42 under
260 ARI -3 **
ARZ-WR-Breaston?
08/29 1:00 PM
261 IND -3 over?
262 DET 40 *
DET-WR-C. Johnson?
08/29 4:00 PM
263 NO -1.5 under
264 OAK 41½ *
NO-WR-Moore? RB-Bush?
08/29 7:30 PM
265 TEN 38½ *
266 CLE -1 UNDER
08/29 7:30 PM
267 BUF 37 OVER
268 PIT -4.5 *
BUF-WR-Owens-OUT
08/29 8:00 PM
269 BAL 34 OVER
270 CAR -3 *
BAL-WR-Clayton-OUT,WR-Mason?
CAR-RB-Stewart?
CAR- toughest Preseason opponents
NYG,MIA,BAL,PIT
08/29 8:00 PM
271 NYJ 36½ under
272 NYG -3.5 *
08/29 8:00 PM
273 SEA 39½ ***
274 KC -3 under
SEA-RB-Jones? WR-Burleson?
08/29 8:00 PM
275 SF 40 *
276 DAL -7 under
SF-QB-Smith? LB-Willis?
08/29 8:00 PM
277 SD 42½ ***
278 ATL -2.5 under*
SD-WR-Jackson?
08/30 8:00 PM
279 CHI 38 OVER*
280 DEN -2.5 *
DEN-QB-Simms? WR-Marshall?
08/31 8:00 PM
281 MIN 41 ****
282 HOU -3 under
MIN-WR-Berrian?
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Buffalo Bills are they predictable?
Bills again turned upside down by 3-4 D is a highly interesting view. So what about this year?
BUF will play the same amount of 3-4 and 4-3 D's this season.
3-4's NE, NYJ, MIA twice, CLE & KC once
4-3's ATL, CAR, NO, TB,(NFC S), IND, TEN, JAC, HOU,(AFC S)
OK, so BUF has been 7-9 for the (has it been) past 3 yrs? and always lose to their AFC E rivals, but CLE? and KC? I think depending on how CLE and KC are "gell'g" I'd stick w/BUF.
As far as the 4-3 teams, the AFC S is tough w/maybe HOU and maybe JAC as possible wins. The NFC S w/ATL & NO playing well I don't see a win, if CAR D can hold it together, that'll be a really tough win and TB is the only real possibility..
So for '09, a record of 6-10 is optimistic and 7-9 is the goal, w/8-8 over their heads.
And the betting angle would be to play the BUF SU(straight up) on the money line as a dog vs (weaker)4-3 & 3-4 teams, stick to the fav's w/the stronger teams (though you'll probably be looking at least a -225 fav). The Over when playing 4-3 teams and maybe Unders w/3-4 opponents.
I haven't check'd their ATS record so I can't state a position, but BUF should be getting points for the majority of their games w/maybe the CLE, KC & TB games as fav's and the game in Toronto vs NYJ does them no favors, which I rate NYJ w/the edge (now).
Game 1 @NE, getting 11pts (Hilton), Brady's 1st game back since inj, he'll air it out, though I think he maybe rusty (preseason games appears to align w/this thought). BUF and their "no huddle" O will get them more reps, but will it be effective? I doubt it, Belichick is running a tougher camp this year, the focus is much higher this yr at the beginning of the season. BUF appears to have some OL issues. I'd have to give NE the edge in covering fairly easy. BUF only real edge is at ST where coach Bobby April may take advantage of the change in rules for only two players to form a wedge. He could have a new zone(s) alignment to help the PR, maybe a wing(s)? and if NE get's out of their lanes, who knows? But this is unlikely and if Brady & Co. get a 2 TD lead, I think they'll extend it, Edwards may press and int's/fumbles will kill drives.
BUF should be getting +17.5 then I would stop and think....
BUF will play the same amount of 3-4 and 4-3 D's this season.
3-4's NE, NYJ, MIA twice, CLE & KC once
4-3's ATL, CAR, NO, TB,(NFC S), IND, TEN, JAC, HOU,(AFC S)
OK, so BUF has been 7-9 for the (has it been) past 3 yrs? and always lose to their AFC E rivals, but CLE? and KC? I think depending on how CLE and KC are "gell'g" I'd stick w/BUF.
As far as the 4-3 teams, the AFC S is tough w/maybe HOU and maybe JAC as possible wins. The NFC S w/ATL & NO playing well I don't see a win, if CAR D can hold it together, that'll be a really tough win and TB is the only real possibility..
So for '09, a record of 6-10 is optimistic and 7-9 is the goal, w/8-8 over their heads.
And the betting angle would be to play the BUF SU(straight up) on the money line as a dog vs (weaker)4-3 & 3-4 teams, stick to the fav's w/the stronger teams (though you'll probably be looking at least a -225 fav). The Over when playing 4-3 teams and maybe Unders w/3-4 opponents.
I haven't check'd their ATS record so I can't state a position, but BUF should be getting points for the majority of their games w/maybe the CLE, KC & TB games as fav's and the game in Toronto vs NYJ does them no favors, which I rate NYJ w/the edge (now).
Game 1 @NE, getting 11pts (Hilton), Brady's 1st game back since inj, he'll air it out, though I think he maybe rusty (preseason games appears to align w/this thought). BUF and their "no huddle" O will get them more reps, but will it be effective? I doubt it, Belichick is running a tougher camp this year, the focus is much higher this yr at the beginning of the season. BUF appears to have some OL issues. I'd have to give NE the edge in covering fairly easy. BUF only real edge is at ST where coach Bobby April may take advantage of the change in rules for only two players to form a wedge. He could have a new zone(s) alignment to help the PR, maybe a wing(s)? and if NE get's out of their lanes, who knows? But this is unlikely and if Brady & Co. get a 2 TD lead, I think they'll extend it, Edwards may press and int's/fumbles will kill drives.
BUF should be getting +17.5 then I would stop and think....
results - Preseason wk2
Just a little bit better on totals and a little worse on sides, since last weekoverall record for two weeks:
sides:
15-16-1
totals:
18-13-1
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
09 Preseason week 2
08/20 7:30 PM
401 CIN 36½ UNDER*
402 NE -7 ***
CIN-QB-C. Palmer-OUT, lots of TC inj's TE's, 2ndary
08/20 8:00 PM
403 PHI -3 ***
404 IND 36 under*
PHI-RB-Westbrook, QB-Kolb-Questionable, QB-Vick-OUT
IND-QB-Sorgi-OUT, + 6 starters OUT
08/21 8:00 PM
405 TEN 37½ *
406 DAL -2.5 OVER***
08/21 8:00 PM
407 KC 36 over
408 MIN -3.5 ****
MIN-QB-Favre starts
08/21 8:00 PM
409 ATL -3 *
410 STL 37 OVER
STL-QB-Bulger-OUT
08/22 7:30 PM
411 TB 34 OVER***
412 JAC -3 *
08/22 7:30 PM
413 PIT -1 UNDER****
414 WAS 33 ****
WAS-RB-Portis-Questionable
08/22 7:30 PM
415 CAR 33½ under
416 MIA -2 ****
CAR-WR-Smith-Doubtful
08/22 7:30 PM
417 DET 37½ ****
418 CLE -3 over
08/22 8:00 PM
419 BUF 38 ****
420 GB -3.5 over
BUF-WR-Owens-Questionable
08/22 8:00 PM
421 NO 40 OVER***
422 HOU -3 *
08/22 8:00 PM
423 NYG 36 ****
424 CHI -2.5 over
CHI-RB-Forte-Questionable
08/22 8:15 PM
425 OAK 36 over
426 SF -3 ***
OAK-QB-Garcia-Questionable
SF-RB-Gore-Questionable
08/22 10:00 PM
427 SD 37½ ***
428 ARI -1.5 under
08/22 10:30 PM
429 DEN 36½ under
430 SEA -3 ***
DEN-RB-Moreno-Doubtful, WR-Marshall-Questionable
08/24 8:00 PM
431 NYJ 32½ ***
432 BAL -3 over
BAL-QB-Beck-OUT
401 CIN 36½ UNDER*
402 NE -7 ***
CIN-QB-C. Palmer-OUT, lots of TC inj's TE's, 2ndary
08/20 8:00 PM
403 PHI -3 ***
404 IND 36 under*
PHI-RB-Westbrook, QB-Kolb-Questionable, QB-Vick-OUT
IND-QB-Sorgi-OUT, + 6 starters OUT
08/21 8:00 PM
405 TEN 37½ *
406 DAL -2.5 OVER***
08/21 8:00 PM
407 KC 36 over
408 MIN -3.5 ****
MIN-QB-Favre starts
08/21 8:00 PM
409 ATL -3 *
410 STL 37 OVER
STL-QB-Bulger-OUT
08/22 7:30 PM
411 TB 34 OVER***
412 JAC -3 *
08/22 7:30 PM
413 PIT -1 UNDER****
414 WAS 33 ****
WAS-RB-Portis-Questionable
08/22 7:30 PM
415 CAR 33½ under
416 MIA -2 ****
CAR-WR-Smith-Doubtful
08/22 7:30 PM
417 DET 37½ ****
418 CLE -3 over
08/22 8:00 PM
419 BUF 38 ****
420 GB -3.5 over
BUF-WR-Owens-Questionable
08/22 8:00 PM
421 NO 40 OVER***
422 HOU -3 *
08/22 8:00 PM
423 NYG 36 ****
424 CHI -2.5 over
CHI-RB-Forte-Questionable
08/22 8:15 PM
425 OAK 36 over
426 SF -3 ***
OAK-QB-Garcia-Questionable
SF-RB-Gore-Questionable
08/22 10:00 PM
427 SD 37½ ***
428 ARI -1.5 under
08/22 10:30 PM
429 DEN 36½ under
430 SEA -3 ***
DEN-RB-Moreno-Doubtful, WR-Marshall-Questionable
08/24 8:00 PM
431 NYJ 32½ ***
432 BAL -3 over
BAL-QB-Beck-OUT
results - Preseason 09 wk 1
It's difficult to post table's in this format, probably a pix will do best:
Not bad for the 1st wk of '09 Preseason (discounting HoF game BUF @TEN). We'll see about next week.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
09 PreSeason week 1
OK so I forgot to post a pick for BUF @TEN HoF game, it would've ended up as a push and over. Notations: 4-stars **** favored side or total, anything less means I'm not to certain. Totals w/capitals means a much stronger lean toward either OVER or UNDER, small caps are for just my thoughts, not very strong play at all. There should be more stars for the either the side or total and this denotes the stronger play. CAPs and 4-stars are my fav's.
Teams to watch, HOU, why? QB Grossman is 3rd string and should get a lot of playing time during preseason. It's just this week they're up against KC w/new coaches, players etc and teams rebuilding (DET, STL, TB) tend to play alot harder than "established" teams.
Teams w/QB competition should make for good 1st half bets, NYJ, CLE, MIN, (ARI though this is due to QB2 vs QB3).
Perhaps I should pick PHI over NE, but I think NE will blitz more, PHI does have a more physical camp and QB2 AJ Feeley (spell?) and yet I can't pick this game really well. Gotta go...
08/13 7:30 PM
251 WAS 31½ ****
252 BAL -3.0 over
08/13 7:30 PM
253 NE 33 *
254 PHI -3 UNDER****
PHI-QB-Kolb-OUT
08/13 8:00 PM
255 ARI 33 ****
256 PIT -3 over
08/13 10:00 PM
257 DAL 34½ UNDER**
258 OAK -2 ****
08/14 7:05 PM
259 STL 33½ *
260 NYJ -3.5 OVER****
08/14 7:30 PM
261 MIN -1 **
262 IND 35 UNDER****
IND-QB-Sorgi-OUT
08/14 8:00 PM
263 CIN 37 under
264 NO -3.5 ****
QB-Brees-Upgraded to Probable
08/14 10:00 PM
265 DEN 34 *
266 SF -3 OVER****
08/15 4:00 PM
267 ATL 35 under
268 DET -3 ****
08/15 7:00 PM
269 CHI 32½ ****
270 BUF -3 over
08/15 8:00 PM
271 TB 34½ ****
272 TEN -4 over
08/15 8:00 PM
273 HOU 37 under**
274 KC -2 *
08/15 8:00 PM
275 CLE 34½ **
276 GB -3 UNDER***
08/15 10:00 PM
277 SEA 36 ****
278 SD -3.5 under
08/17 7:30 PM
279 JAC 31 under**
280 MIA -3 *
08/17 8:00 PM
281 CAR 32½ under
282 NYG -3 ***
CAR-WR-Smith-OUT
Teams to watch, HOU, why? QB Grossman is 3rd string and should get a lot of playing time during preseason. It's just this week they're up against KC w/new coaches, players etc and teams rebuilding (DET, STL, TB) tend to play alot harder than "established" teams.
Teams w/QB competition should make for good 1st half bets, NYJ, CLE, MIN, (ARI though this is due to QB2 vs QB3).
Perhaps I should pick PHI over NE, but I think NE will blitz more, PHI does have a more physical camp and QB2 AJ Feeley (spell?) and yet I can't pick this game really well. Gotta go...
08/13 7:30 PM
251 WAS 31½ ****
252 BAL -3.0 over
08/13 7:30 PM
253 NE 33 *
254 PHI -3 UNDER****
PHI-QB-Kolb-OUT
08/13 8:00 PM
255 ARI 33 ****
256 PIT -3 over
08/13 10:00 PM
257 DAL 34½ UNDER**
258 OAK -2 ****
08/14 7:05 PM
259 STL 33½ *
260 NYJ -3.5 OVER****
08/14 7:30 PM
261 MIN -1 **
262 IND 35 UNDER****
IND-QB-Sorgi-OUT
08/14 8:00 PM
263 CIN 37 under
264 NO -3.5 ****
QB-Brees-Upgraded to Probable
08/14 10:00 PM
265 DEN 34 *
266 SF -3 OVER****
08/15 4:00 PM
267 ATL 35 under
268 DET -3 ****
08/15 7:00 PM
269 CHI 32½ ****
270 BUF -3 over
08/15 8:00 PM
271 TB 34½ ****
272 TEN -4 over
08/15 8:00 PM
273 HOU 37 under**
274 KC -2 *
08/15 8:00 PM
275 CLE 34½ **
276 GB -3 UNDER***
08/15 10:00 PM
277 SEA 36 ****
278 SD -3.5 under
08/17 7:30 PM
279 JAC 31 under**
280 MIA -3 *
08/17 8:00 PM
281 CAR 32½ under
282 NYG -3 ***
CAR-WR-Smith-OUT
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