WOW a blow out for SEA 43-8, just a dominating performance, by the end of Q1 it was clear SEA D was in control and DEN O was mistake prone, who'd have thought the younger team had the poise and clearly won the majority of their battles. SEA D ended up w/2 ints and 3 forced fumbles, they will be remembered for a spectacular performance, jut like Bruno Mars and the half time show.
SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.
SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.
So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4
One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.
My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.
Sunday, February 02, 2014
Sunday, January 26, 2014
2013 - teams built to win - results
Reviewing an earlier post on teams built to win for the 2013 season I wanted to review results of the 7 teams that were viewed as teams built to win and their results for the 2013 season.
Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:
DAL - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.
PHI - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.
CHI - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.
ATL - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition.
TB - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.
SEA - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.
SF - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.
So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.
Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.
You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.
Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:
DAL - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.
PHI - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.
CHI - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.
ATL - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition.
TB - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.
SEA - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.
SF - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.
So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.
Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.
You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.
2013 International games - results
My original post can be seen here: http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013_04_01_archive.html
Let's review my original angle of picking teams:
International games:
wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada
The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents
The expected outcome: all 'home' (MIN, JAC, BUF) teams lose
The actual outcome: MIN gets the unexpected WIN
PIT 27 MIN 34
SF 42 JAC 10
ATL 34 BUF 31
Comment: PIT and MIN were 0-3 heading into game, MIN wanted it more. PIT won their next 2 games and turned it on in the 2nd half of the season, while MIN continued to fade away and eventually fired their HC at the end of the season.
Expectations: 2-1 ATS
noted: all games went OVER the total
Let's review my original angle of picking teams:
International games:
wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada
The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents
The expected outcome: all 'home' (MIN, JAC, BUF) teams lose
The actual outcome: MIN gets the unexpected WIN
PIT 27 MIN 34
SF 42 JAC 10
ATL 34 BUF 31
Comment: PIT and MIN were 0-3 heading into game, MIN wanted it more. PIT won their next 2 games and turned it on in the 2nd half of the season, while MIN continued to fade away and eventually fired their HC at the end of the season.
Expectations: 2-1 ATS
noted: all games went OVER the total
Total (Over/Under) Season Wins - results
Checking back on preseason posts, I thought it might be nice to see how I did with Total Season Over/Under Wins for 2013. The prior post can be seen here:
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html
I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.
You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.
I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.
Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html
I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.
You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.
I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.
Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI
AFC East line pick actual result BUF 6½ Under 6-10 WIN MIA 7½ Over 8-8 WIN NE 11½ Under 12-4 LOSS NYJ 6½ Under 8-8 LOSS AFC North BAL 8½ Under 8-8 WIN CIN 8½ Over 11-5 WIN CLE 6 Under 4-12 WIN PIT 9 Under 8-8 WIN AFC South HOU 10½ Over 2-14 LOSS IND 8½ Over 11-5 WIN JAC 5 Under 4-12 WIN TEN 6½ Under 7-9 LOSS AFC West DEN 11½ Under 13-3 LOSS KC 7 Over 11-5 WIN OAK 5½ Under 4-12 WIN SD 7½ Under 10-6 LOSS NFC East line pick actual result DAL 8½ Over 8-8 LOSS NYG 9 Over 7-9 WIN PHI 7 Under 10-6 LOSS WAS 8½ Over 3-13 LOSS NFC North CHI 8½ Under 8-8 WIN DET 7½ Under 7-9 WIN GB 10½ Under 8-7-1 LOSS MIN 7½ Under 5-10-1 WIN NFC South ATL 10 Over 4-12 LOSS CAR 7 Under 12-4 LOSS NO 9½ Over 11-5 WIN TB 7½ Over 4-12 LOSS NFC West ARI 5½ Over 10-6 WON SF 11½ Under 12-4 LOSS SEA 10½ Over 13-3 WON STL 7 Even 7-9 WON
Friday, January 24, 2014
A keeper - Franchise Season Plots (Advanced NFL Stats)
Here's a link to an article from Advanced NFL Stats, reviewing their Franchise Season Plots . see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014/01/franchise-season-plots-updated.html
and here's a link that goes straight to plots http://wp.advancednflstats.com/yearstatvisualization.php
The plotted graph by years for O and D does take getting used to as a view, but the separate line graphs for each teams Offense and Defense are much easier to understand.
For me, I would like to see below each year - Head Coach (HC), Offensive Coordinator (OC) and Defensive Coordinator (DC), instead of relying on my memory. Of course, others would like to see key player arrivals-departures or even injuries, but that my be a bit subjective for each team as well as very time consuming. HC, OC and DC shouldn't be too hard to include, with an asterisk for teams that fired HC, OC or DC during that season.
SEA D this year may be the most dominant we've seen in years to play in the Superbowl, but that doesn't mean the team with the 'lesser' regular season defensive stats can't win. These past two years winners, BAL and NYG didn't have the best regular season, but did have great playoff runs. Of course it would be nice to see this in a graph for each team in the playoffs, but again it may take considerable time.
Still this visualization tool, could become a good predictor for next season, you just need to add in "moves, adds, and changes" for each team's HC, OC, DC and 'key' players to come up with a 'predictor'. Highly time consuming, but it may prove to be invaluable for the season totals bettors aka season wins-losses. Each year the sportsbooks put out their projected W-L records (adding or subtracting in half a game just to ensure a win or loss for the bettor and sportsbook) and their are always some numbers that by instinctive picking appear to be too high or too low and if you're willing to wait for a five-six month investment to cash, this can be highly lucrative.
and here's a link that goes straight to plots http://wp.advancednflstats.com/yearstatvisualization.php
The plotted graph by years for O and D does take getting used to as a view, but the separate line graphs for each teams Offense and Defense are much easier to understand.
For me, I would like to see below each year - Head Coach (HC), Offensive Coordinator (OC) and Defensive Coordinator (DC), instead of relying on my memory. Of course, others would like to see key player arrivals-departures or even injuries, but that my be a bit subjective for each team as well as very time consuming. HC, OC and DC shouldn't be too hard to include, with an asterisk for teams that fired HC, OC or DC during that season.
SEA D this year may be the most dominant we've seen in years to play in the Superbowl, but that doesn't mean the team with the 'lesser' regular season defensive stats can't win. These past two years winners, BAL and NYG didn't have the best regular season, but did have great playoff runs. Of course it would be nice to see this in a graph for each team in the playoffs, but again it may take considerable time.
Still this visualization tool, could become a good predictor for next season, you just need to add in "moves, adds, and changes" for each team's HC, OC, DC and 'key' players to come up with a 'predictor'. Highly time consuming, but it may prove to be invaluable for the season totals bettors aka season wins-losses. Each year the sportsbooks put out their projected W-L records (adding or subtracting in half a game just to ensure a win or loss for the bettor and sportsbook) and their are always some numbers that by instinctive picking appear to be too high or too low and if you're willing to wait for a five-six month investment to cash, this can be highly lucrative.
Monday, January 20, 2014
2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl picks
The betting angle that WON SU 3 weeks in-a-row Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating: This week: SEA(17%) DEN(17%) note: from last week SEA +0% (no gain), DEN +2% gain DEN designated home, we should review both teams as road teams O-D scoring efficiency SEA 11% (@home 25%) DEN 13% (@home 27%) DEN holds an edge on the road and at home as well QB rtgs ROAD HOME DEN 22.175 SEA 40.7125 SEA 26.2375 DEN 29.8875 note: the much larger difference for SEA (14) as compared to DEN (7) performance wise this appears to indicate an advantage for DEN 02/02 6:30 PM 101 SEA 48 UNDER 102 DEN -2½ **Everyone will instantly recognize the match up of #1's DEN O vs SEA D, but how many are really analyzing the match up of SEA O vs DEN D?
ST coverage and return teams need to be recognized as well.
SEA holds an edge w/KO coverage, they are just faster and stronger w/opponents who dare to take it out of the end zone often not reaching the 20 yd line (their opponent should have kneeled and taken the touchback)
SEA holds an edge w/KO return as I wonder if DEN will allow Holliday to return KOs
DEN holds an edge w/punt coverage, their punter Colquitt has been exceptional at times, often dropping the ball inside the 10 yd line w/coverage team downing the ball inside the 5 yd line
SEA holds an edge w/punt return, I just don't like DEN WR Decker as the PR, if he's ON he's OK, if he's OFF he can be bad. DEN really should just let Holliday be the PR
NO edge between kickers as they are both capable of kicking in bad field conditions, weather and making long FGs.
TV time outs plays a part in the total for the SuperBowl. TV timeouts extend the game often giving offenses an extended view of their opponents D and giving offenses to change it up and attack in the last 2 min of Q2. Still I chose the under due to SEA O relying on their run game and short passing to play keep away from Manning and Co. This really is the only proven method of beating DEN QB Manning. Lessen his opportunities w/the ball as Manning does not make many mistakes.
If SEA wins, it'll be more of a team effort than any one individual, though there will likely be standout performances. SEA has probably the 2nd best young QB (I rate IND QB Luck higher). SEA uses a bruising run game, stifling D and an opportunistic ST play to win games. SEA is not built to come from behind by more than two scores.
If DEN wins, it's likely they get the lead and don't relinquish it. Everyone knows of their record setting O, but their D is not so shabby itself and their ST can be exceptional.
The one factor that may change my mind, the weather and if a starter is replaced due to whatever happens from now until game day. I may then update my choices.
1/21 more thoughts:
Everyone knows the way to beat Manning and Co. is to play keep away. A sound running game and good play calling in the red zone will go a long way for SEA to beat DEN. SEA has the requisite D to make it tough on any QB in the NFL, thus to beat their D, a 'short' game is required as well, mixing in runs with short quick throws is what Manning is best at doing. I'm relying on Manning and Co. overall greater experience at playing the NFL game. I think Manning and Co. will play the short, quick game until they get a lead, where they will then toss a long one or two, just to keep SEA D 'honest'.
SEA QB Wilson maybe forced to throw the ball more often on than they would like as DEN run D has played well these last two games. If so, my best guess SEA goes as Wilson goes, if he fails to gain yardage on long distance downs, this game could be a one sided affair.
It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness, I just view SEA weakness on passing downs hard to ignore. If SEA ST steps up and takes over the game, this will at least keep it close for a bit, but ultimately, I see far more scenarios that work for DEN than for SEA. Their will probably be somewhere between 8 and 10 possession in the game by both teams, maximizing these possessions has been more of DEN forte this season than SEA, it'll take TDs to win game as FG's just won't cut it.
SEA may have an emo edge for this game, but how long will it last? If they can't keep pace w/DEN, then an emo edge won't last that long even for a well rested team.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
2013 - week 20 - results
NE @DEN, CBS, as I suspected the game, did not go over the total as NE had a tough time running the ball on DEN D and DEN O was much more efficient than NE O. DEN ST were a bit fortunate, it was a bit curious to me w/WR Decker returning punts and not Holliday, who though has fumbling issues at times, I still think would be better than Decker. DEN lost their best CB in Q1 and NE their best CB in Q2, but the teams both stuck to their running game and thus the total never had a chance of going over. The ending score was closer than I thought it would be as I thought DEN would end the game w/a 3 score lead. During the game they did have a 3 score lead, but NE rallied a bit and DEN O sputtered in the second half. DEN wins ATS and the winning total is UNDER.
Peyton looks determined as confetti rains down from AFC Championship presentation/celebration.
SF @SEA, FOX, and we got fireworks from the get go (1st play on 1st drive), SF D gets the TO, with a sack, strip, fumble recovery by OLB Smith. SEA D holds and forces a FG. SF ST gets great punt coverage and downs the ball on the 1 yd line. SEA run O comes to life and gets help from officiating w/penalty on SF D, though it was a clean hit by SF S Whitner on SEA TE Willson. A make up call? SEA OL holding.... SF Bowman gets a sack, add another one for SF D Q1 is over SF leads 3-0.
Q2, SF ST gets lucky recovering a muffed punt by RB James, huge hit by SEA WR Lockette. Costly TD for SF? All Pro Guard Iupati injured (Lknee?). Q2 SF leads 10-0 and at the half SF up 10-3.
Q3 opens up w/SF O and SEA D controls them. SEA RB Lynch gets a big run and TD from 40 yds out. Game is tied 10-10. SF get's big plays from their QB and WR to gain the lead w/a TD, SF up 17-10. SEA ST WR Baldwin huge return, but SEA O bogs down and settles for a FG, score SEA 13-17. SEA D plays inspired and SF O goes 3 and out. SF seems to be a bit luckier than SEA in this game. Officiating is average at best, too many mistakes (they miss a roughing the kicker penalty for 15 yds and 1st down for SF). Q4 begins w/SEA curious non-FG try and waste a timeout, but SEA O gets a TD on 4th down w/huge TD pass and take the lead 20-17. SF QB Kaepernick fumbles and SEA recovers on 10 yd line. SF LB Bowman recovers ball, gets injured (left knee) and officials give the ball to SEA, OUCH! another officiating mistake. SEA goes for it on 4th down, but the beast (Lynch) fumbles and SF gets the balls on the 15 yd line. SF Kaepernick throws an interception, game over? SEA scores a FG extending lead 23-17. Last chance for SF? they go for it on 4th down and get the 1st down. 2 min warning, but again Kapernick causes another TO and SEA gets the win. No love lost between these teams, SEA CB Sherman is talking angry about SF WR Crabtree after sealing game with a batted ball which his team mate recovers in the end zone. Whew.... what a game.... SEA covers and OVER the total wins (note, later in the week the total climbs to 40, so you may have had a push [a tie] for totals).
Key SF personnel injuries really affected them and SEA was fortunate not to have any as well as officiating going their way at times.
I end up 1-1 ATS and 0-2 for totals, not really good at all this weekend. On to DEN vs SEA in the Super Bowl XVLIII (48). Playoff records 6-3-1 ATS and 7-3 totals which is not bad at all.
Peyton looks determined as confetti rains down from AFC Championship presentation/celebration.
SF @SEA, FOX, and we got fireworks from the get go (1st play on 1st drive), SF D gets the TO, with a sack, strip, fumble recovery by OLB Smith. SEA D holds and forces a FG. SF ST gets great punt coverage and downs the ball on the 1 yd line. SEA run O comes to life and gets help from officiating w/penalty on SF D, though it was a clean hit by SF S Whitner on SEA TE Willson. A make up call? SEA OL holding.... SF Bowman gets a sack, add another one for SF D Q1 is over SF leads 3-0.
Q2, SF ST gets lucky recovering a muffed punt by RB James, huge hit by SEA WR Lockette. Costly TD for SF? All Pro Guard Iupati injured (Lknee?). Q2 SF leads 10-0 and at the half SF up 10-3.
Q3 opens up w/SF O and SEA D controls them. SEA RB Lynch gets a big run and TD from 40 yds out. Game is tied 10-10. SF get's big plays from their QB and WR to gain the lead w/a TD, SF up 17-10. SEA ST WR Baldwin huge return, but SEA O bogs down and settles for a FG, score SEA 13-17. SEA D plays inspired and SF O goes 3 and out. SF seems to be a bit luckier than SEA in this game. Officiating is average at best, too many mistakes (they miss a roughing the kicker penalty for 15 yds and 1st down for SF). Q4 begins w/SEA curious non-FG try and waste a timeout, but SEA O gets a TD on 4th down w/huge TD pass and take the lead 20-17. SF QB Kaepernick fumbles and SEA recovers on 10 yd line. SF LB Bowman recovers ball, gets injured (left knee) and officials give the ball to SEA, OUCH! another officiating mistake. SEA goes for it on 4th down, but the beast (Lynch) fumbles and SF gets the balls on the 15 yd line. SF Kaepernick throws an interception, game over? SEA scores a FG extending lead 23-17. Last chance for SF? they go for it on 4th down and get the 1st down. 2 min warning, but again Kapernick causes another TO and SEA gets the win. No love lost between these teams, SEA CB Sherman is talking angry about SF WR Crabtree after sealing game with a batted ball which his team mate recovers in the end zone. Whew.... what a game.... SEA covers and OVER the total wins (note, later in the week the total climbs to 40, so you may have had a push [a tie] for totals).
Key SF personnel injuries really affected them and SEA was fortunate not to have any as well as officiating going their way at times.
I end up 1-1 ATS and 0-2 for totals, not really good at all this weekend. On to DEN vs SEA in the Super Bowl XVLIII (48). Playoff records 6-3-1 ATS and 7-3 totals which is not bad at all.
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