2015 - week 20 - results

A perfect weekend, 4-0 overall, 2-0 ATS and for totals

Overall for the playoffs, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 for totals, all picks 11-8-1

2015 - week 20 - results

2015 - week 20 - picks

last week - all home teams won SU, but not ATS
Weather will be colder for both games (than earlier in the week projections)

01/24 3:00 PM
311 NE -3 UNDER
312 DEN 44½ *

strength vs strength
NE O vs DEN D

non-strength vs strength
DEN O vs NE D

ST edge
NE FG kicking
DEN punting
? - punt/KO coverage


01/24 6:40 PM
313 ARI 48 over
314 CAR -3 ***

strength vs strength
ARI O vs CAR D

non-strength vs strength
ARI D vs CAR O

ST edge
CAR FG kicking
CAR punting
? - punt/KO coverage

2014 - week 20 - PO week 3 - picks

So I'm either crazy or a ...

01/18 3:05 PM
301 GB 47 *
302 SEA -7 under

strength vs strength, GB O vs SEA D



01/18 6:40 PM
303 IND 54 *
304 NE -7 over

IND underestimated?
NE lucky last week?

2013 - week 20 - results

NE @DEN, CBS, as I suspected the game, did not go over the total as NE had a tough time running the ball on DEN D and DEN O was much more efficient than NE O. DEN ST were a bit fortunate, it was a bit curious to me w/WR Decker returning punts and not Holliday, who though has fumbling issues at times, I still think would be better than Decker. DEN lost their best CB in Q1 and NE their best CB in Q2, but the teams both stuck to their running game and thus the total never had a chance of going over. The ending score was closer than I thought it would be as I thought DEN would end the game w/a 3 score lead. During the game they did have a 3 score lead, but NE rallied a bit and DEN O sputtered in the second half. DEN wins ATS and the winning total is UNDER.
Peyton looks determined as confetti rains down from AFC Championship presentation/celebration.

SF @SEA, FOX, and we got fireworks from the get go (1st play on 1st drive), SF D gets the TO, with a sack, strip, fumble recovery by OLB Smith. SEA D holds and forces a FG. SF ST gets great punt coverage and downs the ball on the 1 yd line. SEA run O comes to life and gets help from officiating w/penalty on SF D, though it was a clean hit by SF S Whitner on SEA TE Willson.  A make up call? SEA OL holding.... SF Bowman gets a sack, add another one for SF D Q1 is over SF leads 3-0.
Q2, SF ST gets lucky recovering a muffed punt by RB James, huge hit by SEA WR Lockette. Costly TD for SF? All Pro Guard Iupati injured (Lknee?). Q2 SF leads 10-0 and at the half SF up 10-3.
Q3 opens up w/SF O and SEA D controls them. SEA RB Lynch gets a big run and TD from 40 yds out. Game is tied 10-10. SF get's big plays from their QB and WR to gain the lead w/a TD, SF up 17-10. SEA ST WR Baldwin huge return, but SEA O bogs down and settles for a FG, score SEA 13-17. SEA D plays inspired and SF O goes 3 and out. SF seems to be a bit luckier than SEA in this game. Officiating is average at best, too many mistakes (they miss a roughing the kicker penalty for 15 yds and 1st down for SF). Q4 begins w/SEA curious non-FG try and waste a timeout, but SEA O gets a TD on 4th down w/huge TD pass and take the lead 20-17. SF QB Kaepernick fumbles and SEA recovers on 10 yd line. SF LB Bowman recovers ball, gets injured (left knee) and officials give the ball to SEA, OUCH! another officiating mistake. SEA goes for it on 4th down, but the beast (Lynch) fumbles and SF gets the balls on the 15 yd line. SF Kaepernick throws an interception, game over? SEA scores a FG extending lead 23-17. Last chance for SF? they go for it on 4th down and get the 1st down. 2 min warning, but again Kapernick causes another TO and SEA gets the win. No love lost between these teams, SEA CB Sherman is talking angry about SF WR Crabtree after sealing  game with a batted ball which his team mate recovers in the end zone. Whew.... what a game....  SEA covers and OVER the total wins (note, later in the week the total climbs to 40, so you may have had a push [a tie] for totals).
Key SF personnel injuries really affected them and SEA was fortunate not to have any as well as officiating going their way at times.



I end up 1-1 ATS and 0-2 for totals, not really good at all this weekend. On to DEN vs SEA in the Super Bowl XVLIII (48). Playoff records 6-3-1 ATS and 7-3 totals which is not bad at all.

2013 - week 20 - Conference finals - picks

The older team angle (based on starters)
** SF, DEN **


The betting angle that WON SU 2 weeks in-a-row
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
SF(13%) SEA(17%)
NE(11%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, DEN **

SF won again and is keeping the streak alive from the L3Y of a WildCard team going to SB and winning
SEA D dominated again, but O appears to be ineffective at times

NE dominated early, cruised in Q3, then put it away in Q4
DEN D came out and really dominated, WINDY game, Q4 SD made a run, but 'to little, too late'.


Last week SEA, SF and DEN D goose egg'd their opponent for 3 quarters:
SEA allowed 15pts Q4
SF allowed 10pts Q2
DEN allowed 17pts Q4


This weekend is best of the young QBs and best of the old QBs

Last week NE faced best of the young QB's, this week best of the old QB's

Last week D's of SEA and DEN went against better QB's (NO and SD)




01/19 3:00 PM
301 NE 55 over
302 DEN -4½ ***

DEN CB Harris OUT
NE @home won wk12 34-31

good? weather

After their week 10 bye week, NE only losses were to CAR and MIA on the road by the identical score of 20-24
After their week 9 bye week, DEN only losses were to NE (road) and SD (home) by the scores of 31-34 and 20-27

approx 12-14 possessions, >4 scoring drives

In their wk12 match up, DEN led 24-0 at the half. I suspect something similar will happen, but this time DEN will finish the game in the second half. It must weigh on DEN psyche, they had NE beat, but let them back into the game. This time NE 
won't be able to come back.




01/19 6:30 PM
303 SF 39½ ***
304 SEA -3½ under

rubber match - split series
SEA @home won wk2 29-3
SF @home won wk14 19-17

approx 11-12 possess, 'less than'(why can't I use less than mathematical sign?) 4 scoring drives

Still unsure of who I think will win SU. SEA O does appear to be ineffective at times, even though they have the 'better' QB. I don't think either team will get away from their style of winning, so who's better? It appears SF is better at this time. It will be a strength on strength game. SF O vs SEA D and SF D vs SEA O, ST appears to be a near wash, but I think SF holds an edge w/punt coverage and less miscues. 
The way to beat SEA D may be to run the ball more and not pass so much, ball control (small ball) and wear them out.
The way to beat SF D is to attack the edges, with an occasional deep one thrown in.
Clearly SEA secondary is the best part of their D even w/o Browner, to beat SEA D, SF O needs another player to step up, beyond Gore, Davis, Boldin, Crabtree - I think either McDonald, Celek or Dixon will become more involved.
SEA O, beyond Lynch, what is there really to fear? They already play small ball (too much IMO) SF D has a much more defined plan as far as stopping SEA O. So in the end I'll take SF SU and ATS, with UNDER the total the better betting angle.

If you really wanted to be safe, tease SF and total +6, you would then have SF +9½ and UNDER 45½, this pays around 11-10 (bet $11 win $10)

 If you wanted to include the early afternoon game as a +6pt tease, take DEN +1½ and OVER 49

A 4 pick +6 pt tease, I think pays around 1-2.6 (bet $10 win $26 aka double your money)

 A normal 4 pick pays 1-11 (bet $10 win $110), sometimes this is more, it depends on the sportsbook.