Total (Over/Under) Season Wins - results

Checking back on preseason posts, I thought it might be nice to see how I did with Total Season Over/Under Wins for 2013. The prior post can be seen here:
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html

I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.

You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.

I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.

Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI

AFC East line pick actual result
BUF  6½ Under 6-10 WIN
MIA  7½ Over 8-8 WIN
NE  11½ Under 12-4 LOSS
NYJ  6½ Under 8-8 LOSS

AFC North
BAL  8½ Under 8-8 WIN
CIN  8½ Over 11-5 WIN
CLE  6 Under 4-12 WIN
PIT  9 Under 8-8 WIN
 
AFC South
HOU  10½ Over 2-14 LOSS
IND  8½ Over 11-5 WIN
JAC  5 Under 4-12 WIN
TEN  6½ Under 7-9 LOSS

AFC West
DEN  11½ Under 13-3 LOSS
KC  7 Over 11-5 WIN
OAK  5½ Under 4-12 WIN
SD  7½ Under 10-6 LOSS

NFC East line pick actual result
DAL  8½ Over 8-8 LOSS
NYG  9 Over 7-9 WIN
PHI  7 Under 10-6 LOSS
WAS  8½ Over 3-13 LOSS

NFC North
CHI  8½ Under 8-8 WIN
DET  7½ Under 7-9 WIN
GB  10½ Under 8-7-1 LOSS
MIN  7½ Under 5-10-1 WIN

NFC South
ATL  10 Over 4-12 LOSS
CAR  7 Under 12-4 LOSS
NO  9½ Over 11-5 WIN
TB  7½ Over 4-12 LOSS

NFC West
ARI  5½ Over 10-6 WON
SF  11½ Under 12-4 LOSS
SEA  10½ Over 13-3 WON
STL  7 Even 7-9 WON

A keeper - Franchise Season Plots (Advanced NFL Stats)

Here's a link to an article from Advanced NFL Stats, reviewing their Franchise Season Plots . see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014/01/franchise-season-plots-updated.html
and here's a link that goes straight to plots http://wp.advancednflstats.com/yearstatvisualization.php

The plotted graph by years for O and D does take getting used to as a view, but the separate line graphs for each teams Offense and Defense are much easier to understand.

For me, I would like to see below each year - Head Coach (HC), Offensive Coordinator (OC) and Defensive Coordinator (DC), instead of relying on my memory. Of course, others would like to see key player arrivals-departures or even injuries, but that my be a bit subjective for each team as well as very time consuming. HC, OC and DC shouldn't be too hard to include, with an asterisk for teams that fired HC, OC or DC during that season.

SEA D this year may be the most dominant we've seen in years to play in the Superbowl, but that doesn't mean the team with the 'lesser' regular season defensive stats can't win. These past two years winners, BAL and NYG didn't have the best regular season, but did have great playoff runs. Of course it would be nice to see this in a graph for each team in the playoffs, but again it may take considerable time.

Still this visualization tool, could become a good predictor for next season, you just need to add in "moves, adds, and changes" for each team's HC, OC, DC and 'key' players to come up with a 'predictor'. Highly time consuming, but it may prove to be invaluable for the season totals bettors aka season wins-losses. Each year the sportsbooks put out their projected W-L records (adding or subtracting in half a game just to ensure a win or loss for the bettor and sportsbook) and their are always some numbers that by instinctive picking appear to be too high or too low and if you're willing to wait for a five-six month investment to cash, this can be highly lucrative.