2016 - week 14 - results

just above .500 ATS and above .666 for totals for this week

notes (highly unusual, its normally the opposite):
division sweeps = 5
(KC swept OAK, WAS swept PHI, CIN swept CLE, HOU swept IND, NYG swept DAL)
division splits = 1
(DET splits w/CHI)

week 14 results:
ATS: 9-7
Totals: 11-5


for the season results:
ATS: 103-99-5
Totals: 110-94-3

2016 - week 14 - picks

Changed pick from NE/Under to BAL/Under
Changed pick from GB/Over to SEA/Over

CoB (Coming off Bye)
CLE TEN

12/08 8:25 PM
101 OAK 47 under
102 KC -3 *

Which team is 'charmed'?



12/11 1:00 PM
105 DEN 43½ under
106 TEN -1 *

TEN CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
107 SD 48½ *
108 CAR -3 under

CAR CoSNF



12/11 1:00 PM
109 HOU 46½ **UNDER**
110 IND -5½ *

IND CoMNF



12/11 1:00 PM
111 CIN -6 *
112 CLE 43½ over

CLE CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
113 PIT -2 *
114 BUF 47½ ***OVER***



12/11 1:00 PM
115 ARI 43½ *
116 MIA -2 over



12/11 1:00 PM
117 CHI 43½ *under*
118 DET -8 *



12/11 1:00 PM
119 MIN -3½ *
120 JAC 39½ **UNDER**

MIN CoTNF



12/11 4:25 PM
121 NO 51½ under
122 TB -2½ *



12/11 1:00 PM
123 WAS -1 *
124 PHI 47 over



12/11 4:05 PM
125 NYJ 46½ under
126 SF -1 *

NYJ CoMNF



12/11 4:25 PM
127 SEA -2½ *
128 GB 46½ *over *

SEA FS Thomas IR OFY
SEA CoSNF



12/11 4:25 PM
129 ATL -6 *
130 LA 45 **UNDER**



12/11 8:30 PM
131 DAL -3 *
132 NYG 47½ under

DAL CoTNF



12/12 8:30 PM
133 BAL 46 *
134 NE -7½ *under*

2014 - week 14 - results

The best weekend I've had this season... 10-6 ATS and 11-5 totals...

2015 - week 14 - results

2015 - week 14 - picks

Guess I'll be updating numbers later this week when something comes out for IND @JAC and SEA @BAL
Changed pick from BUF/Over to PHI/Under
12/13 late updates for IND @JAC and SEA @BAL

Last week DIV games:
GB splits series w/DET
CIN sweeps series w/CLE
TEN splits series w/JAC
CAR sweeps series w/NO
ARI splits series w/STL
TB sweeps series w/ATL
DEN wins 1st game of series w/SD
KC wins 1st game of series w/OAK
WAS wins 1st game of series w/DAL



12/10 8:25 PM
101 MIN 45½ under
102 ARI -7½ *

MIN 1-2 vs NFC W (STL-SF,SEA)
ARI 2-0 vs NFC N (CHI,DET)



12/13 1:00 PM
105 PIT 49 *
106 CIN -3 over

CIN won 1st game of series (16-10)



12/13 1:00 PM
107 BUF -1 *under*
108 PHI 47 *

BUF 0-1 vs NFC E (NYG)
PHI 2-1 vs AFC E (NYJ,NE-MIA)



12/13 1:00 PM
109 ATL 46½ *under*
110 CAR -7½ ***

1st game of series



12/13 1:00 PM
111 SF 41 ***
112 CLE -1½ under

SF 1-1 vs AFC N (BAL-PIT)
CLE 0-2 vs NFC W (STL,ARI)



12/13 1:00 PM
113 WAS 44 *
114 CHI -3 over

PEER GAME
WAS 2nd game (won vs STL 24-10 wk2)
CHI 1st game



12/13 1:00 PM
115 DET 40½ *
116 STL -1 under

DET 0-2 vs NFC W (SEA,ARI)
STL 0-3 vs NFC N (GB,MIN,CHI)



12/13 1:00 PM
117 SD 45½ under
118 KC -10 *

KC won 1st game 33-3



12/13 1:00 PM
119 NO 50½ **
120 TB -3½ over

TB won 1st game 26-19



12/13 1:00 PM
121 IND 46 under
122 JAC -1 *

IND won 1st game 16-13



12/13 1:00 PM
123 TEN 43 over
124 NYJ -7 *

TEN 0-2 vs AFC E (BUF,MIA)
NYJ 2-1 vs AFC S (IND,JAC-HOU)



12/13 8:30 PM
125 NE -3½ under
126 HOU 45 *

NE 2-0 vs AFC S (JAC,IND)
HOU 1-2 vs AFC E (NYJ-MIA,BUF)



12/13 4:05 PM
127 OAK 43½ *
128 DEN -7½ over

DEN won 1st game 16-10



12/13 4:25 PM
129 DAL 44 *
130 GB -7 *under*

PEER GAME
DAL 2nd game (loss to SEA 12-13)
GB 2nd game (loss to CAR 29-37)



12/13 1:00 PM
131 SEA -10 ***
132 BAL 42 under

SEA 1-1 vs AFC N (PIT-CIN)
BAL 1-2 vs NFC W (STL-SF,ARI)



12/14 8:30 PM
133 NYG -1 *
134 MIA 46½ *UNDER*

NYG 1-2 vs AFC E (BUF-NE,NYJ)
MIA 2-1 VS NFC E (WAS,PHI-DAL)

2014 - week 14 - results

OUCH!!!, well it really shows as I haven't watched as much as I like to in the past two weeks. I ended 5-11 ATS and for Totals....

I'm now sub .500 for the year with Totals and ATS.... sigh...

2014 - week 14 - results

2014 - week 14 - the rest of the weekend - picks

not so good last week, so what about this week?

12/07 1:00 PM
151 BAL 45½ **OVER**
152 MIA -3 *



12/07 1:00 PM
153 PIT 47 *OVER*
154 CIN -3½ *



12/07 1:00 PM
155 IND -3½ ***
156 CLE 50 over



12/07 1:00 PM
157 HOU -6 *
158 JAC 42 over



12/07 1:00 PM
159 NYG -1 over
160 TEN 46 *

NYG beat up, just 52 players, short 1 man 

for 53 man roster, due to PS rule
(for the remainder of the season)



12/07 1:00 PM
161 CAR 49½ over
162 NO -10 *



12/07 1:00 PM
163 TB 41½ *
164 DET -9½ under



12/07 1:00 PM
165 STL -3 *
166 WAS 44 UNDER



12/07 1:00 PM
167 NYJ 40½ **UNDER**
168 MIN -5½ *

?SNOW?



12/07 4:05 PM
169 BUF 47½ *
170 DEN -9½ over



12/07 4:05 PM
171 KC -1 *
172 ARI 40½ under



12/07 4:25 PM
173 SF -8½ *
174 OAK 41 under



12/07 4:25 PM
175 SEA 48½ over
176 PHI -1½ *



12/07 8:30 PM
177 NE -3½ over
178 SD 51½ *



12/08 8:30 PM
179 ATL 56 under
180 GB -12½ *

?SNOW? !COLD!

2014 - week 14 - TNF - picks

If last week was any indication of my lack of time for picking and posting games, this week will not be any better. I'm hoping just to hit .500

12/04 8:25 PM
101 DAL -4 *
102 CHI 51½ under

it's less than an hour to kick off.
It's hard to take the home dog, CHI has yet to play really well at home. 
CHI is at the start of a 4 game home stand, but I think they'll lose and stink it up...

2013 - week 14 results

Game Notes:
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep   HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired

CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.

FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.

Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.

So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...

Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE

FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....

SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10


Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL @GB 21-22 also should be a SNOW game, but it didn't go over the total, maybe because it was too cold, with a wind chill of -1 and game start temperature of 9 degrees, with winds gusting up to 15mph. An interesting view of the subterrain for the 'frozen tundra' @Lambeau Field. I think GB lost their advantage once, this field warming technology has been in place for several years now (I think).


MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.

Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.


Weekend results:

Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.

CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.

ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.

2013 - week 14 - results

2013 - week 14 - picks

Looks like a cold weather weekend, so running teams should be favored and dominate DL as well. I'm not really confident on my picks. I already have been toasted on TNF, so I need to watch more games, (if settling into my new place really lets me).

NE W/L 16-1 SU in DEC

HOU 0-10 SU streak, now 0-11

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246 
CLE 16-44 .267
OAK 24-49 .329
DAL 28-41 .406
BUF 29-42 .408 


GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8-1 SU, 3-8 ATS
this week, NO

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE


NFC East 12-17 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, KC @WAS, DAL @CHI, DET @PHI, NYG @SD


TEAMS w/10 days rest 13-11 ATS/SU
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR,IND,ATL) 
L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**,CIN,MIA,WAS,MIN,TEN,NO]
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, GB, DET, OAK, DAK, PIT, BAL







12/08 1:00 PM
131 KC -3 **
132 WAS 45 over

WAS ref's err'd last week vs NYG (1st down 'flub')
WAS O is an issue, WAS D not much better
WC 22


12/08 1:00 PM
133 MIN 43 *under
134 BAL -6½ *

MIN may need double digits to cover, total seems to be the better bet
MIN QB Cassel starts?
WC 20
BAL 10 DR


12/08 1:00 PM
135 CLE 44½ UNDER
136 NE -11½ ***

CLE O woe is me, alas says the CLE D
CLE QB Campbell starts
shouldn't this be NE -21½?
CLE DE Bryant OFY
WC 19


12/08 1:00 PM
137 OAK 40½ *
138 NYJ -3 over

NYJ O has stagnated due to play calling
OAK has a real chance to win this game
WC 29
OAK 10Dr


12/08 1:00 PM
139 IND 43½ under
140 CIN -6 ***

IND inj's to OL, DL and ST
CIN D getting healthier
WC 20


12/08 8:30 PM
141 CAR 46 UNDER
142 NO -3½ *

1st game of division series
flexed to SNF, should be an interesting game


12/08 1:00 PM
143 DET 54 UNDER
144 PHI -2½ ***

DET on the road will need to get really lucky or disciplined to win
WC 22
DET 10Dr


12/08 1:00 PM
145 MIA 40½ ***
146 PIT -3 under

PIT LT? RG?
WC 19, normally I'd take the 'cold weather' team, but PIT has OL issues and MIA has a dominant DL
PIT 10Dr


12/08 1:00 PM
147 BUF 43 *over
148 TB -2½ *

BUF should've won last week @home '@Toronto', this should be officially a no play(bet) game. I don't have a good feel for either team


12/08 4:05 PM
149 TEN 50 *
150 DEN -12 over

TEN says refs erred 3x last week @IND
WC 5 degree


12/08 4:25 PM
151 STL 41½ under
152 ARI -6½ **

STL C Barnes (1st start)
ARI feels as if they were robbed last week @PHI by refs
STL won wk1 27-24
ARI has not won a division game L2Y


12/08 4:25 PM
153 NYG 47½ over
154 SD -3 *



12/08 4:25 PM
155 SEA 41½ under
156 SF -3 *

SEA won wk2 29-3


12/08 1:00 PM
157 ATL 45 *over 
158 GB -3 *

wanting to choose ATL, but this is @GB, WC 17 degrees, the better running game should win
GB 10Dr


12/09 8:40 PM
159 DAL 48 over
160 CHI -1 *

DAL has yet to string 3 wins in a row this season
CHI has yet to lose 3 in a row this season
DAL 10Dr

2013 - week 14 - Thursday picks

hmmm...
this is not a game most people would watch, HOU is on a long losing streak and lost @home to JAC in week12, so motivation should be on HOU side, yes even on the road, the series split is more likely to occur than the series sweep

12/05 8:25 PM
101 HOU -3 **
102 JAC 43½ OVER 

JAC won week12 13-6

2013 - GRIDs - week 14

2013 GRID week 14 efficiency

Compared to week 11 GRIDs,

AFC East
 NE -2%, MIA +3%, BUF +3%, NYJ -7%

AFC North
 CIN +2%, BAL +5%, PIT +1%, CLE -2%

AFC South
 IND -3%, TEN -4%, HOU +1%, JAC +6%

AFC West
 DEN -1%, SD -1%, KC -6%, OAK 0%

NFC East
 PHI +2%, DAL +1%, NYG +4%, WAS -3%

NFC North
 GB -8%, DET +3%, CHI -3%, MIN +3%

NFC South
 CAR -1%, NO -7%, TB +1%, ATL +3%

NFC West
 SEA +2%, SF 0%, ARI +6%, STL -1%

The highlighted pink indicates the biggest drop this past weekend (NO and GB). No team made an appreciable jump beyond 3%, though MIA, JAC and DET did record a 3% increase from last weekend

2013 GRID week 14 QB rtg

KC, DAL and DET has dropped into mid tier (12-22 ranking),
MIA,PIT, and CHI has risen into top tier (1-11 ranking)
TB has risen into mid tier (12-22 ranking)
HOU has dropped into bottom tier (23-32 ranking)
note: I noticed I should've had BAL in 2nd tier for week 11 GRID, sigh...


All this movement seems to coincide w/each teams winning SU this past month. We'll see who can keep it up for the last month of the regular season.