Head Coach Retention Rates
The above url (link) is one of those articles that you wonder why no one has done it before and though it may not be a hot bed of a topic for discussion, it does merit discussion.
Though the rate seems to be about the same as in years past whether going with a 5yr or 3yr retention rate. Where everyone's focus is a winning correlation with head coach and staff retention. Those teams which have less turnover at their coaching positions seems to have a better winning percentage.
Now the article doesn't go that deeply into the general perception of winning = head coaches retention, just if they are still with the same team, so it would be nice to see this topic with a more in depth view.
Monday, April 07, 2014
Friday, April 04, 2014
and the stripes are changing...
Instead of posting more pre-draft speculation, here's a link for new referees this upcoming season by the folks at footballzebras.com
Speculation whirls around new referee hires
This could be an interesting angle to follow. I'd guess perhaps less penalties (speedy games) or perhaps more penalties (slower games) as far actual game length. Of course if they happen to be assigned to young teams, you would expect more penalties vs a much more veteran team. It would take at least a month or two to see if there is a trend of any type to follow for the new hires.
Speculation whirls around new referee hires
This could be an interesting angle to follow. I'd guess perhaps less penalties (speedy games) or perhaps more penalties (slower games) as far actual game length. Of course if they happen to be assigned to young teams, you would expect more penalties vs a much more veteran team. It would take at least a month or two to see if there is a trend of any type to follow for the new hires.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
just a thought on futures aka total wins
I read this article Pythagenpat Records in 2013 and it occurred to me that perhaps the sportsbooks are using something similiar when they post their season total over/under wins for each team prior to the regular season.
I wish I had the time to check prior years as well as verify/disqualify some of my other thoughts as well.
Namely those teams that over or under achieve each season since the realignment to 32 teams and their W/L record the following season.
It's also interesting in the article that Brady, Manning and now Luck have all done better than predicted by the mathematical model, but their is no mention of Rodgers, Brees. It would be nice to see what the model predicted by team w/a QB notation (though I do realize that for some teams, their should be a QB/QB/QB notation, due to injuries, HC decision etc)
I wish I had the time to check prior years as well as verify/disqualify some of my other thoughts as well.
Namely those teams that over or under achieve each season since the realignment to 32 teams and their W/L record the following season.
It's also interesting in the article that Brady, Manning and now Luck have all done better than predicted by the mathematical model, but their is no mention of Rodgers, Brees. It would be nice to see what the model predicted by team w/a QB notation (though I do realize that for some teams, their should be a QB/QB/QB notation, due to injuries, HC decision etc)
Sunday, February 02, 2014
2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl XLVIII (48) - results
WOW a blow out for SEA 43-8, just a dominating performance, by the end of Q1 it was clear SEA D was in control and DEN O was mistake prone, who'd have thought the younger team had the poise and clearly won the majority of their battles. SEA D ended up w/2 ints and 3 forced fumbles, they will be remembered for a spectacular performance, jut like Bruno Mars and the half time show.
SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.
SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.
So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4
One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.
My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.
SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.
SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.
So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4
One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.
My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.
Sunday, January 26, 2014
2013 - teams built to win - results
Reviewing an earlier post on teams built to win for the 2013 season I wanted to review results of the 7 teams that were viewed as teams built to win and their results for the 2013 season.
Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:
DAL - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.
PHI - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.
CHI - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.
ATL - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition.
TB - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.
SEA - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.
SF - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.
So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.
Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.
You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.
Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:
DAL - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.
PHI - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.
CHI - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.
ATL - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition.
TB - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.
SEA - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.
SF - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.
So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.
Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.
You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.
2013 International games - results
My original post can be seen here: http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013_04_01_archive.html
Let's review my original angle of picking teams:
International games:
wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada
The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents
The expected outcome: all 'home' (MIN, JAC, BUF) teams lose
The actual outcome: MIN gets the unexpected WIN
PIT 27 MIN 34
SF 42 JAC 10
ATL 34 BUF 31
Comment: PIT and MIN were 0-3 heading into game, MIN wanted it more. PIT won their next 2 games and turned it on in the 2nd half of the season, while MIN continued to fade away and eventually fired their HC at the end of the season.
Expectations: 2-1 ATS
noted: all games went OVER the total
Let's review my original angle of picking teams:
International games:
wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada
The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents
The expected outcome: all 'home' (MIN, JAC, BUF) teams lose
The actual outcome: MIN gets the unexpected WIN
PIT 27 MIN 34
SF 42 JAC 10
ATL 34 BUF 31
Comment: PIT and MIN were 0-3 heading into game, MIN wanted it more. PIT won their next 2 games and turned it on in the 2nd half of the season, while MIN continued to fade away and eventually fired their HC at the end of the season.
Expectations: 2-1 ATS
noted: all games went OVER the total
Total (Over/Under) Season Wins - results
Checking back on preseason posts, I thought it might be nice to see how I did with Total Season Over/Under Wins for 2013. The prior post can be seen here:
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html
I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.
You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.
I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.
Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html
I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.
You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.
I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.
Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI
AFC East line pick actual result BUF 6½ Under 6-10 WIN MIA 7½ Over 8-8 WIN NE 11½ Under 12-4 LOSS NYJ 6½ Under 8-8 LOSS AFC North BAL 8½ Under 8-8 WIN CIN 8½ Over 11-5 WIN CLE 6 Under 4-12 WIN PIT 9 Under 8-8 WIN AFC South HOU 10½ Over 2-14 LOSS IND 8½ Over 11-5 WIN JAC 5 Under 4-12 WIN TEN 6½ Under 7-9 LOSS AFC West DEN 11½ Under 13-3 LOSS KC 7 Over 11-5 WIN OAK 5½ Under 4-12 WIN SD 7½ Under 10-6 LOSS NFC East line pick actual result DAL 8½ Over 8-8 LOSS NYG 9 Over 7-9 WIN PHI 7 Under 10-6 LOSS WAS 8½ Over 3-13 LOSS NFC North CHI 8½ Under 8-8 WIN DET 7½ Under 7-9 WIN GB 10½ Under 8-7-1 LOSS MIN 7½ Under 5-10-1 WIN NFC South ATL 10 Over 4-12 LOSS CAR 7 Under 12-4 LOSS NO 9½ Over 11-5 WIN TB 7½ Over 4-12 LOSS NFC West ARI 5½ Over 10-6 WON SF 11½ Under 12-4 LOSS SEA 10½ Over 13-3 WON STL 7 Even 7-9 WON
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