2016 - week 15 - results

A really nice weekend ATS, but not nice at all for Totals.
(note: if I had not changed my pick for GB @CHI, I'd have a better record, then again if I had left my pick for JAC @HOU alone I would have had a worse record..

week 15 results:
ATS: 12-3-1
Totals: 6-8-2


for the season:
ATS: 115-102-6
Totals: 116-102-5

2016 - week 15 - picks

Update 12/17 changed HOU/Under to JAC/Under
Update 12/16 changed CHI/Over to GB/Under due to weather
I'm a bit tired, wish I could be more thorough...

12/15 8:25 PM
301 LA 38½ *under*
302 SEA -15 *

LA HC Fisher fired
?20-10?



12/17 8:25 PM
303 MIA -2½ *
304 NYJ 38½ over

MIA QB Moore starts
NYJ inj's
wk9 MIA won 27-23 vs NYJ
MIA vs div SU/ATS 2-1
NYJ vs div SU 1-2 ATS 2-1
?27-24?



12/18 8:30 PM
305 TB 46 *
306 DAL -7 **under**

PEER game
wk10 TB won 36-10 vs CHI (wk7 won 34-17 @SF)
wk4 DAL won 24-17 @SF (wk3 won 31-17 vs CHI



12/18 1:00 PM
307 DET 41½ *under*
308 NYG -4½ *

DET QB Stafford finger ?limited?
DET vs NFC E SU/ATS 2-0
NYG vs NFC N SU 1-2 ATS 0-2-1
NYG last game @home SU 6-1 ATS 3-4
DET on the road SU 3-3 ATS 4-2



12/18 1:00 PM
309 PHI 41½ *under*
310 BAL -6 *

PHI inj's
BAL CoMNF



12/18 1:00 PM
311 GB -7 *
312 CHI 41 **under**

wk7 GB won 26-10 vs CHI
CHI WR Jeffery returns
GB SU on moneyline, I don't expect them to lose SU
just ATS loss



12/18 1:00 PM
313 IND 45 *
314 MIN -4 over

IND inj's
IND on the road SU 3-3 ATS 3-2-1
IND vs NFC N SU/ATS 2-1
MIN vs AFC S SU/ATS 3-0
MIN @home SU 4-2 ATS 5-1



12/18 1:00 PM
315 CLE 42 *under*
316 BUF -10 *

CLE QB RGIII 3rd start (2nd in a row)



12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN 42½ *
318 KC -5½ ***UNDER***

TEN CoTNF (10 days rest)
PLAYOFF implications



12/18 1:00 PM
319 JAC 39½ *
320 HOU -6 *under*

wk10 HOU WON 24-21 @JAC
WH road dog ATS 9-3-1
not a game to bet on...



12/18 4:05 PM
321 NO 50½ *
322 ARI -2½ **over**

NO on the road SU 2-4, ATS 5-1
NO 3-0 vs NFC W 
ARI last game @home SU 4-2-1 W-L-T ATS 3-4
ARI 1-2 vs NFC S (win TB, lost CAR ATL)
?27-24?


12/18 4:05 PM
323 SF 51½ ***UNDER***
324 ATL -13½ ***

SF injs



12/18 4:25 PM
325 NE -3 ***
326 DEN 44 *under*

PEER game
NE CoMNF
NE on the road SU 6-0 ATS 5-1
DEN @home SU/ATS 4-2



12/18 4:25 PM
327 OAK -3 *****
328 SD 50 over

OAK CoTNF (10 days rest)
OAK on the road SU/ATS 5-1
SD inj's
wk5 OAK won 34-31 vs SD



12/18 1:00 PM
329 PIT -3 *
330 CIN 44 under

wk2 PIT won 24-16 vs CIN
PIT vs DIV SU/ATS 2-1
PIT final road game SU/ATS 4-3
CIN vs DIV SU/ATS 2-2
CIN @home SU 3-2-1 ATS 3-3



12/19 8:30 PM
331 CAR 51 over
332 WAS -4½ *

PEER Game
wk3 (Peer game 1) CAR lost vs MIN
wk13 (Peer game 1) WAS lost @ARI
CAR on the road, SU 1-5 ATS 1-4-1
WAS @home SU/ATS 4-2
WAS has inj's but CAR has not played very well in road games

2015 - week 15 - results

for week 15, just above .500 ATS(8-7-1) and really nice for totals (11-4-1)

for the season I'm finally above .500 for totals and ATS as well...

NOTE: STL and SD won their home games, which were possibly there last at that venue...

2015 - week 15 - results

2015 - week 15 - picks

12/17 UPDATED numbers for HOU @IND
Still waiting on numbers for HOU @IND, I will update later
I did notice except for PHI, I'm picking against NFC East teams this weekend

Last week DIV games:
NO splits series w/TB
PIT splits series w/CIN
JAC splits series w/IND
KC sweeps series w/SD
CAR sweeps series w/ATL
OAK splits series w/DEN



12/17 8:25 PM
301 TB 41 *
302 STL -1½ over

PEER Game
TB 1st Game
STL 1st Game @WAS lost 10-24



12/19 8:25 PM
303 NYJ -3 *
304 DAL 42 over

NYJ 2-1 vs NFC E (WAS,@NYG-PHI)
DAL 1-1 vs AFC E (@MIA-NE)



12/20 1:00 PM
305 CHI 43 *
306 MIN -5 over

MIN won 1st game of series 23-20



12/20 1:00 PM
307 ATL 48½ *
308 JAC -3 OVER

ATL 2-1 vs AFC S (HOU,TEN-IND)
JAC 0-2 vs NFC S (CAR,TB)



12/20 1:00 PM
309 HOU 41 *
310 IND -1 UNDER

HOU QB Yates starts?
IND QB Whitehurst starts?
IND won 1st game of series 27-20



12/20 1:00 PM
311 KC -7½ *
312 BAL 42 **UNDER**

KC 1-1 vs AFC N (@CIN-PIT)
BAL 2-1 vs AFC W (@DEN,@OAK-SD)
BAL QB Clausen starts (1st game for BAL, 2nd of season[CHI])



12/20 1:00 PM
313 BUF -1 ****
314 WAS 44 over

BUF 0-2 vs NFC E (NYG @PHI)
WAS 0-3 vs AFC E (MIA @NYJ @NE)



12/20 1:00 PM
315 TEN 46½ ***UNDER***
316 NE -14 *

TEN D effort?
TEN 0-3 vs AFC E (BUF MIA @NYJ)
NE 3-0 vs AFC S (JAC @IND @HOU)



12/20 8:30 PM
317 ARI -3½ over
318 PHI 50½ *

PEER Game
ARI won 1st game 31-19 vs NO
PHI lost 1st game 14-45 @DET



12/20 1:00 PM
319 CAR -5½ **
320 NYG 48 over

CAR 3-0 vs NFC E (PHI WAS @DAL)
NYG 1-2 vs NFC S (@TB-ATL,@NO)



12/20 4:05 PM
321 CLE 43 under
322 SEA -14½ ***

CLE 1-2 vs NFC W (SF-@STL,ARI)
SEA 2-1 vs AFC N (PIT,@BAL-@CIN)



12/20 4:05 PM
323 GB -3 *
324 OAK 47 *over*

GB 2-1 vs AFC W (KC,SD-@DEN)
OAK 0-3 vs NFC N (@CHI MIN @DET)



12/20 4:25 PM
325 MIA 45½ *
326 SD -1½ under

PEER Game
MIA won 1st game 15-13 vs BAL
SD won 1st game 31-25 vs JAC



12/20 4:25 PM
327 DEN 45 over
328 PIT -6 *

DEN QB Osweiler (5th)
DEN 2-0 vs AFC N (BAL @CLE)
PIT 2-1 vs AFC W (@SD,OAK-@KC)



12/20 4:25 PM
329 CIN -4½ *
330 SF 40½ **under**

CIN QB McCarron starts (1st)
CIN 2-1 vs NFC W (SEA,STL-ARI) note:3-0 ATS
SF 1-2 vs AFC N (BAL-PIT,CLE)


12/21 8:30 PM
331 DET 51 ***OVER***
332 NO -3 *

PEER Game
DET won 45-14 vs PHI
NO lost 19-31 @ARI

2014 - week 15 - results

not as bad as last week, but still not good enough. I guess on the positive side for being distracted the past 3 weeks, I can't really complain about the results and this is what I would expect.... But I'm digging a hole ATS that I can't get out of....

2014 - week 15 - results

2014 - week 15 - the rest of the week - picks

not sure what to expect for the weekend....

12/14 1:00 PM
305 OAK 41½ **UNDER**
306 KC -10 *

last week for OAK emo game vs SF
it's not easy to have two emo games in a 

row



12/14 1:00 PM
307 JAC 45 UNDER
308 BAL -13½ *

this might be a better 1st half bet



12/14 1:00 PM
309 PIT -3 *
310 ATL 54½ **OVER**

ATL D will need to play way UP to win



12/14 1:00 PM
311 HOU 49½ ***
312 IND -6½ over

I just think it's too many points to give up to HOU



12/14 1:00 PM
313 CIN 44 ***
314 CLE -1 UNDER

CLE QB Manziel starts?
(and CIN is not favored?)



12/14 1:00 PM
315 MIA 48½ UNDER
316 NE -7½ *

MIA won 1st game
so NE returns favors SU and ATS



12/14 1:00 PM
317 TB 41½ UNDER
318 CAR -3½ **

CAR QB Anderson starts



12/14 1:00 PM
319 WAS 47 UNDER
320 NYG -6½ **

WAS woe is me?



12/14 1:00 PM
321 GB -4 *
322 BUF 50½ UNDER

will BUF get home cooking?



12/14 4:25 PM
323 MIN 42 *
324 DET -7½ over

DET is over rated, is MIN under rated?



12/14 4:05 PM
325 NYJ -3 over
326 TEN 42½ *

Who is worse?



12/14 4:05 PM
327 DEN -4½ **OVER**
328 SD 51 *

can DEN kick it up a notch?
(and wrap up AFC West?)



12/14 4:25 PM
329 SF 38 under
330 SEA -9½ *

SF another woe is me?



12/14 8:30 PM
331 DAL 55½ over
332 PHI -3½ ****

for the NFC East title?



12/15 8:30 PM
333 NO -3 over
334 CHI 54 ***

neither team is on a role,
instead both have controversy,
so who will be focused?

2014 - week 15 - TNF - picks

seems obvious, well at least to me...

12/11 8:25 PM
301 ARI 40½ UNDER
302 STL -4½ *

STL D impressive past 2 weeks

2013 - week 15 - results

Late breaking news of some significance or not??
CHI QB Cutler to start, I'm just to lazy to change pick to CLE, but I'm tempted.
HOU practice w/referees, back to the basics, nice to see, since penalties have killed HOU chances one to many times this season.

TNF, SD @DEN, DEN starts out w/a TD again, really nice, but they cool off until the end when they heat up again. Many will point to DEN D as the "faulty part", but SD D really came on in Q2 and Q3. SD w/their O play really well and ST doing a decent job (well except for fumble) won this game with a team effort. Note: I think we're seeing more hurdles than ever, possibly due to emphasis on tackling rules in NFL.
I really point to SD D as being a key part of the win as UNDER the total won the money. SD D forced DEN O to punt on every possession in Q2 and Q3. The AFC S showed the way to beat Manning and Co. and the name of the game is called "keep away". Run the ball, win ToP (Time of possession) and force Manning to march down the field, nothing deep.
DEN D gets burned again by a premier QB (prior Brady) a pattern? Their other loss is to IND w/QB Luck and to me Luck is that good as long as he has a WR that can catch the ball.
DEN ST also made key errors in Q2 and Q3, fielding the ball inside the 10 in Q2 (should've just let the ball go and take the chance it bounces into the endzone for a touchback) and the penalty on 4th down which gave the ball back to SD. SD O proceeded to eat up more time and finally punted at mid-field.

FOX, SEA @NYG, I barely glanced at this game, and I did not watch...

CBS, NE @MIA, really interesting, MIA pulls out the win, despite a ST snapping snafu to the holder, he appears to be not ready or expecting the snap. One thing interesting for NE during the game was moving LG Mankins to LT, but it was not to be their day as the home team got the split in their series w/MIA. MIA D in particular even after losing DT Soliai still played really well.

FOX, GB @DAL, I just kept this up in the background, but did lots of household things that needed to be done, another why watch this game? I did hear Aikman w/an interesting comment w/Romo having all the time in world as GB D can't get pressure, so a lot of Aikman misses go back to accuracy issues.
OH MY, a second half to add to the lore of GB and the dismantling of 'boys, what a stunner. Just poor play calling IMO. DAL should have run the ball more, eat clock and thus GB would never have the chance to complete the comeback, but DAL outsmarted themselves again.

On this Sunday, home dog MIN gets a nice upset of PHI (odd how PHI chose not to do traditional KO, instead they chose to squib it and thus starting drives field position was an early x-mas gift from PHI to MIN, the other noticeable oddity was PHI RB McCoy had only eight carries, just two a quarter or maybe once a drive) and it appears STL at home will do the same to NO (just like '11 season, history repeats itself).


SNF, CIN @PIT, ouch! PIT comes out on fire, hits CIN in the mouth and they wilt, PIT ST really took it to CIN ST and KO'd CIN P Huber as well. I had expected something a little closer, but CIN has the little bro' mentality or that's what the announcer said (I think or as best as I can recall, lol).

I'm a bit late posting results, just plain forgot to do so. One thing that I've noticed for this past weekend - the NFC East was 0-fer SU/ATS. I did ok, just above .500 ATS and a break even .500 for totals

2013 - week 15 - results

2013 - week 15 - picks

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3

NE W/L 17-1 SU in DEC,

HOU 0-11 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

all lost SU last weekend, drop that percentage even more



GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
3-8-1 SU, 4-8 ATS
this week, SF

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE


NFC East 13-20 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @ATL, SEA @NYG, PHI @MIN, GB @DAL


TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-15 SU
13-17 ATS
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR,IND,ATL,GB*,BAL*) 
L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**,CIN,MIA,WAS,MIN,TEN,NO,DET,OAK,DAL,PIT]
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, HOU, JAC




12/15 1:00 PM
305 WAS 51 over?
306 ATL -6 **

ATL FS DeCoud ?OUT?
ATL has a running game, D is decent, O is suspect
ST advantage ATL?
ATL OC Koetter interviewing for college HC
WAS QB Cousins starts
ATL should win, but will they cover?


12/15 1:00 PM
307 SF -5½ *
308 TB 41 under



12/15 4:25 PM
309 ARI -3 ***
310 TEN 41½ over

ARI FS Mathieu OUT
TEN QB Fitzpatrick has accuracy issues w/o TE Walker in the line up. 
TEN D still plays fairly well, it's their O that will sputter for a half and that means they will likely lose this home game vs an ARI D that is playing really well and an O that can move the ball. 
TEN ST returns are better, but coverage is lacking, advantage ARI
This game means more to ARI than to TEN for the playoffs, but TEN coaching staff and players have been put on 'notice', they'll be playing to keep their jobs this weekend.


12/15 4:25 PM
311 NO -5½ *
312 STL 48 under



12/15 1:00 PM
313 SEA -7 *
314 NYG 41 over

SEA SLB Wright OUT


12/15 1:00 PM
315 CHI 43 *
316 CLE -2½ ****OVER****

CLE QB Campbell starts, the team believes



12/15 1:00 PM
317 HOU 45½ **
318 IND -6 under

HOU 10Dr
IND won wk09 27-24


12/15 1:00 PM
319 BUF -1½ over
320 JAC 43 ***

BUF last week post game led by players
JAC 10Dr


12/15 1:00 PM
321 NE -2½ over
322 MIA 45½ *

NE TE Gronkowski OUT
NE won wk8 27-17


12/15 1:00 PM
323 PHI -4½ *
324 MIN 51½ UNDER?

MIN RB Peterson OUT


12/15 4:05 PM
325 NYJ 41 UNDER
326 CAR -10½ *

NYJ CB Cromartie OUT?
CAR should win, will they cover?

12/15 4:05 PM
327 KC -4 *
328 OAK 41 OVER



12/15 4:25 PM
329 GB 48½ under
330 DAL -7 *

GB a FG team, until TDs are more prevalent and QB Flynn acquires a much better touch in RZ


12/15 8:30 PM
331 CIN -3 *OVER*
332 PIT 40½ *

CIN LCB Newman OUT
CIN won wk2 20-10


12/16 8:40 PM
333 BAL 48½ *
334 DET -6 over

DET RB Bush D2D(Day-to-Day)

2013 - week 15 - Thursday - picks

I'm thinking.... SD/Over combo

12/12 8:25 PM
301 SD 55 *
302 DEN -10½ over

DEN WR Welker OUT
DEN won wk 10 28-20

2013 - week 15 - GRIDs

QB Rating:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating

for clarity - 
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9



Team scoring efficiency:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency

The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.

So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.

IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.

BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.

FYI:
Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.

For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com

For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.

Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.