2015 - week 08 - results

TNF - NE crushing, MIA D is playing well enough, but O miscues and lack of 'fire' or play calling.... sucks looks like a loss.
note: Q1 MIA RT inj'd Q3 MIA DE Wake inj'd

TB and OAK, got upsets - as thought...
NYG @NO - so much scoring....
SEA @DAL - so little scoring...

SNF - DEN nice upset, combined w/today's trade for TE Vernon Davis - they look like a contender. GB? well... too many down the field plays, they needed to dink and dunk

MNF - CAR eventually wins in OT, but this game should've been won in Q4, but CAR D and O step off the gas and IND scores 17 pts in Q4. IND QB Luck throws his final interception of the game to setup the winning FG by CAR



It's the second week in a row that I'm above .500 ATS (8-5-1) and for totals (9-5)
for the season ATS (63-53-1) Totals (58-59-2)

2015 - week 08 - results

2015 - week 08 - picks

11/1 update: added numbers for TEN @HOU
10/28 update: changed pick from CHI/OVER to MIN/OVER

Waiting on numbers for TEN @HOU

CoB CHI CIN DEN GB
GiB ARI BAL DET HOU KC SEA

Last week teams CoB
3-1 ATS [STL,TB,OAK-DAL]
2-2 SU [STL,OAK-TB,DAL]

Last week teams GiB 
1-3 ATS [JAC-BUF,WAS,PHI]
2-2 SU [JAC,WAS-BUF,PHI]

Last week DIV:
MIN sweeps DET 
NYG splits w/DAL


10/29 5:25pm
101 MIA 51 **
102 NE -8 over



11/01 6:30am
251 DET 45½ under
252 KC -5 *

at Wembley Stadium, London, England
DET new coaches OC,OLx2
DET OC Jim Bob Cooter
DET GiB
KC GiB



11/01 10:00am
253 MIN -1 *
254 CHI 42½  over

CHI CoB
WH ROAD 6-0 ATS



11/01 10:00am
255 TB 48½ *
256 ATL -7 over

WH FAV 6-0 ATS/SU


  
11/01 10:00am
257 NYG 50 over
258 NO  -3½ *

WH FAV 6-0 SU


11/01 10:00am
259 SF 39½ *UNDER*
260 STL -8½ *****

SF CoTNF



11/01 10:00am
261 ARI -5 *
262 CLE 46 over

ARI GiB
CLE QB Manziel starts?
WH FAV 5-1 SU



11/01 10:00am
263 CIN -1½ *
264 PIT 48½ under

CIN CoB



11/01 10:00am
265 SD  50½ over
266 BAL -3 *

BAL GiB



11/01 10:00am
267 TEN 42 under
268 HOU -4 *

HOU GiB
WH FAV 5-1 ATS/SU



11/01 1:05pm
269 NYJ -2 OVER
270 OAK 44 *

WH DOG 6-0 ATS



11/01 1:25pm
271 SEA -6 ***
272 DAL 41 over

SEA CoTNF
SEA GiB
WH HOME 4-1-1 ATS
WH FAV SU 5-1
WH O/U 1-5



11/01 5:30pm
273 GB -3 *
274 DEN 46 under

GB CoB
DEN CoB
WH HOME 6-1 ATS



11/02 5:30pm
275 IND 46 under
276 CAR -7 ***

WH FAV SU 6-0

2014 - week 08 - results

Ouch!, really sucked ATS going 4-11, I was above .500 for totals, but this is making it tough to get above .500 ATS.

2014 - week 08 - results

2014 - week 08 - the rest of the weekend picks

Generally teams that lose their Center, tend to lose their next game and SEA and CLE held true to form, only SD did not follow suit this season...  did any else notice that ATL has lost their Center?


Going into Bye week (GiB) = ATL BUF CHI DET GB TEN
Coming off Bye week (CoB) = PHI TB

10/25 update watching SEA @STL week 07, you notice that STL O can run on SEA D. Maybe STL is playing way UP for the SB champs, but if not, then STL has turned the corner and SEA has too many injuries to overcome.
Changing pick STL @KC from KC/Over to STL/Over

10/26 9:30 AM
251 DET -4 ***
252 ATL 46½ UNDER

DET GiB
ATL C Konz IR OFY
ATL free fall, injuries...



10/26 1:00 PM
253 MIN 42 *
254 TB -3 UNDER

TB CoB
TB ST??
conservative O's?
edge MIN D



10/26 1:00 PM
255 CHI 50 *over*
256 NE -6 *

CHI GiB
CHI turmoil?
NE injuries?
NE plays well at home, will they cover?



10/26 1:00 PM
257 STL 43½ *
258 KC -7 *over

KC returns for a home game, the fans will be UP as it's been 3 weeks between games. Both teams coming off impressive wins, KC @SD, SEA @STL
10/25 changed pick from KC/Over to STL/Over


10/26 1:00 PM
259 SEA -5 *
260 CAR 44½ ***OVER***

SEA D has given up 28,30,17,20,30 L5G
CAR D has given up 38,37,24,38,37 L5G
I'm thinking SEA w/2 consecutive losses will be more focused



10/26 1:00 PM
261 BUF 40½ *UNDER*
262 NYJ -3 *

BUF GiB
BUF RB's Jackson and Spiller OUT
two run teams??? or just BUF?



10/26 1:00 PM
263 MIA -6 UNDER
264 JAC 43 *

MIA can't get a good ID on them, they've surprised with their G1 win over NE and not much else. MIA should win, but I suspect TO's will keep this game closer.
JAC has been steadily progressing over the past 7 games and finally getting a win last week. Has JAC crested? reached their plateau? or is their more?



10/26 1:00 PM
265 HOU -2 *
266 TEN 42½ UNDER

TEN GiB
TEN QB Mettenberger starts (rookie)
Mentally for TEN, since this game will mark the halfway point of the season, I don't see this as a good sign, more of a we gotta see what we have with our rookie QB



10/26 1:00 PM
267 BAL 45½ ****
268 CIN -1½ under

CIN O-n-D inj's
BAL should split their series as CIN Won the first game...



10/26 4:05 PM
269 PHI 48 *
270 ARI -2½ ***OVER***

PHI CoB
ARI has a talented 2ndary, PHI should run the ball more. But this game appears to be in the 12-13 possession realm for each team. If it each team scores on 4 possessions (roughly 1/3) this should go easily over the total



10/26 4:25 PM
271 IND -3 ***
272 PIT 48½ *OVER*

PIT has to play keep away from IND to win, which I don't think they can do



10/26 4:25 PM
273 OAK 44 *****
274 CLE -7 under

OAK OLB Woodley IR OFY
OAK appears to be progressing and I think CLE is regressing due to injuries...



10/26 8:30 PM
275 GB 55½ *****
276 NO -1½ *OVER*

GB GiB
NO better than NFL average, but GB is nearing elite range. NO w/2 wins is better than many 3 and 4 wins teams, it's just running into a buzzsaw w/GB



10/27 8:30 PM
277 WAS 50 under
278 DAL -9 *****

unless WAS QB McCoy brings alot more consistency to their O, this game should be a blowout even if it's a division rivalry game

2014 - week 08 - TNF - picks

I've been busy, but looks like I'll be able to post prior to game...
I'm going against the OVER trend and even though this is a division rivalry game, I'm giving up the points...

10/23 8:25 PM
103 SD 51½ *UNDER*
104 DEN -8 *

SD appears to be beat up

2013 - week 08 - results

DAL @DET, Q1 and what strikes me is 'how can DAL win?' w/their first 4 drives ending in punts, then their D turns it up and keeps them in the game, but in the end DAL D could not stop DET O. DET O continued to move the ball throughout the game. DAL O sputtered for the most part and when they really need a first down to keep the ball and kill time to end the game. DAL could not, they left DET w/62 sec on the clock and what a finish for DET.

MIA @NE, a tale of two halves in the first half MIA did all the right things and led 17-3 at the half, but in the second half, they could do nothing right giving up turnovers and sacks to close out the game. It seemed to me that NE D blitzing really bothered Tannehill and company. It was as to me that MIA was ill prepared for constant blitzing. If Tannehill had a hot read for the blitz or a screen, it just did not happen during the 2nd Half and NE pressed their advantage, until they got the lead and kept it. Just one other thing of note. The batting the ball penalty on MIA DT/DE Vernon was a bad call by refs, and gave outstanding field position, which led to NE scoring a TD and MIA then seemed to be in 'panic' mode. I say panic because they didn't run the ball.

WAS @DEN, somewhat interesting, but I fell asleep, I guess I couldn't see how WAS O would be able to move the ball consistently.

GB @MIN, MIN gets a ST TD, but later GB returns the favor, though this was a division game, MIN did not play as well (or with a greater emotional uplift at home) as I thought they could, count them as toast for the rest of the season.

NYJ, ATL, and DAL all lost on the road after winning vs division foes (NYJ beat NE, ATL beat TB, DAL beat PHI) last week


This week I ended up just above .500 ATS and just below .500 for totals.

KC won SU but did not cover ATS, this bodes well for CLE

CIN blows out NYJ in a big surprise to me. I really thought it would be a much closer game. The biggest surprise was ATL collapse on the road at ARI. ARI QB Palmer had a much more conservative game and thus had only one int (instead of the normal 2 - either 2ints or an int and a fumble for so many games).

I should've stuck w/my original pick of DEN/Over... sigh

Lost in the SEA D winning their game on the road @STL is the fact that STL D played very well and their O just the opposite.

2013 - week 08 - results

2013 - week 08 - picks

Trends:
'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 0-6 SU/ATS
this week ARI

NFC East 4-12 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, DAL @DET, WAS @DEN

TEAMS w/10 days rest 8-4 ATS/SU
 W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG) 
 L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI] 
this week SEA ARI

Teams Going into Bye 4-10 ATS/SU 
W(CAR,MIN,WAS,SD) 
L[GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN]
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) JAC, DEN, NYG, DET, SF, ARI

Teams Coming Off Bye 3-5 ATS/SU
 W(GB,PIT,ATL) 
 L (CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA) 
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) NO, OAK

10/27 1:00 PM
209 SF -16½ *
210 JAC 41 under

@Wembly Stadium, London, England
JAC HC Bradley disappointed in lack of effort for last weeks game vs SD
10/21 update: JAC HC Bradley has left team due to fathers passing away
JAC interim HC DB coach DeWayne Walker
GiB JAC
GiB SF

JAC got 28pts vs DEN and they covered, so why pick against them?

SF D, they are the reason and this game is essentially another road game for JAC so no home crowd, not that they get that much of an advantage at home.

On the road and in another country I think we'll see SF have more fans than JAC.

BTW I picked JAC to cover when they were getting 28pts (see week 6)

10/27 1:00 PM
211 DAL 51 *
212 DET -3 OVER

GiB DET
DET OL injuries


10/27 1:00 PM
213 NYG 53 *
214 PHI -6 under

GiB NYG
PHI QB Vick?
series split?


10/27 1:00 PM
215 CLE 39½ ***UNDER***
216 KC -7 *****

CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 1)
CLE QB Carousel
This should be -17½


10/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 50½ *
218 NO -12½ *UNDER

NO TE Graham starts?
CoB NO
this might be the most interesting game of the week
due to BUF HC Marrone (xNO OC 06-08)


10/27 1:00 PM
219 MIA 45½ *
220 NE -6½ *under

MIA OL shuffle? new LT, old LT->RT?
can NE cover? I expect MIA to lose due to errors
10/25 update: changed pick from MIA/OVER to MIA/UNDER


10/27 4:05 PM
221 NYJ 41 *
222 CIN -6½ *under*

NYJ just not as good/lucky on the road, but...
CIN CB Hall IR OFY


10/27 4:05 PM
223 PIT -3 *under?
224 OAK 40½ *

CoB OAK
This game could go over. ST play for both PIT and OAK are both down this year.


10/27 4:25 PM
225 WAS 58½ *
226 DEN -13 ***OVER***

WAS FS Meriweather OUT
WAS SS Doughty out?
GiB DEN
10/24 update: changed pick from DEN/OVER to WAS/OVER


10/27 4:25 PM
227 ATL 45 ******
228 ARI -2½ **over**

GiB ARI
ATL bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half
TO's will kill ARI chances



10/27 8:30 PM
229 GB -9½ *
230 MIN 46½ under

MIN QB Ponder returns (after 4 weeks)
MIN QB Carousel
MIN desperate moves @QB, but team isn't playing desperate


10/28 8:40 PM
231 SEA -10½ *
232 STL 42½ under

SEA FB Robinson returns
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 1)

2013 - week 08 - Thursday picks

10/24 8:25 PM
103 CAR -6½ *
104 TB 40 under

TB QB Glennon 4th start (preseason game 4)

CAR is getting a lot more national media attention. I do think they'll win, but will they cover?

One motivating factor for CAR will be last year's losses to TB. TB swept CAR LY as they had their 'number'.

What's different this year? TB QB and secondary as well as CAR D. I give an edge to CAR in this year's draft. TB's one saving grace is their ability to find vet's. I think CAR younger players from the past drafts are coming around and this game maybe a statement game for CAR. A win on the road against a hated division rival.

10/23 update: betting against TB in the 2nd half, seems to be a very good angle as they've scored only 1 TD in the second half.

2013 - GRID - "new" - efficiency - week 08

2013 - GRID - week 08 - efficiency

I've been trying out another GRID ranking for a couple of weeks and the above essentially takes Offense scoring efficiency (as a percentage) subtracted from Defense scoring efficiency. That gap between Offense and Defense appears to be a very good indicator of a teams strength.

You'll notice above that their are 13 teams above 0%, which means the majority of NFL teams (19) are below 0%. This seems to be how good/bad NFL teams are this year (well at least for this week, now I'm thinking I wish I had tracked this from week 1).

The division with the greatest parity appears to be the AFC North where an 8% gap exists between the top (CIN) and bottom (CLE) teams. The division with the greatest disparity (33%) is the AFC South and NFC South.

This GRID ranking is an accumulative ranking mean the whole season counts, not just a couple of weeks.

Eleven teams (or slightly more than 1/3 of NFL teams) are between +4% and -4%. There are ten teams above +4% and eleven teams below -4%.

I guess this is somewhat of a better GRID, though I think CAR maybe a bit high.

The strongest division appears to be in the AFC west. The weakest (IMO), the AFC North and NFC East, though an argument could be made for other divisions as well (AFC South w/JAC is a doozy).