2015 - week 04 - results

TNF - A game that looks like PIT kicker Scobee gave it away with two misses (just like w/Game 1 @NE) and in OT BAL gets the cover (or push if bet it later on where the number increased to -3)

Hurricane Joaquin looks to be a factor in PHI @WAS (rain, wind) and maybe NYG @BUF (gusty?)

QB shenanigans?
Late scratch IND QB Luck (Hasselbeck gets the win)
Late start CHI QB Cutler (gets the win)
and NO QB Brees starts (gets the win)

Another good week 9-6 ATS 9-5-1 for Totals, results below:

2015 - week 04 - results

NE, TEN on bye week

Bright green = UPSET winner (ATS/SU win)

Bright pink = UPSET loser (ATS/SU loss)

darker green = ATS winner (SU loss)

darker brick = ATS loser (SU win)

2014 - week 04 - results

Mixed results, 8-5 ATS which is good, but 3-10 totals which is just awful....

If I had stayed with my first instincts for GB @CHI, I would have one more win, one less loss or 9-4 ATS...

A bit surprised by HOU, I thought you could run on their D as NYG did make their DL look bad at times in week 3.

I would never have expected TB to win at PIT, highly unexpected and thus a true UPSET IMO

I was being a bit pig headed with MIA at OAK, these overseas game at Wembley stadium, really favors the road team...

ATL at MIN, is another upset, but after examing the game, it's the injuries to ATL on OL, (Center and RG) as well as at strong safety that turned the tide in favor of MIN, that and MIN QB Bridgewater having an outstanding game in his debut as a starting QB (too bad he was injured as well, but the game was already in MIN favor by then) as well as a team that appeared to be motivated at home. I guess you could also factor in ATL a dome team on the road on a grass surface, out doors as a combo factor in their loss.

I was surprised a bit with the total for PHI at SF ending UNDER the total.

2014 - week 04 - results

2014 - week 04 - rest of the week - picks

I may change my mind again....
update 9/27 changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over

09/28 1:00 PM
251 MIA -4½ **UNDER**
252 OAK 40½ *

This game is at Wembley Stadium, London, England which should favor the road team, except MIA is not playing well and OAK has a D and a viable O.
Notes: OAK has been in London since Monday
MIA following normal road team routine, leave on Thursday night



09/28 1:00 PM
253 GB -1½ ***OVER***
254 CHI 49½ *

CHI 2ndary beat up and more
if GB couldn't go into DET and beat them, what stops them from doing the same in CHI?
GB RT Bulaga returns?
CHI ST weakness?
GB history of 'rebound' after strugglin' loss
changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over



09/28 1:00 PM
255 BUF 41 *
256 HOU -3 over

HOU does play better at home, but NYG ran on them, I think BUF will do the same and stop HOU O from running as well
HC's know each other really well
starting to waffle on this one, very similiar teams
in that they need their D and ST to win and O to perform moderately. Neither can come back, so they should be looking to front run again to notch another victory
With ST injuries to both teams, we may see much better than normal field position for each team, thus I'm think'g the total might be easier vs side.
If I knew that HOU will feed RB Blue, I'd give them the edge, but last week vs NYG was really odd for me to see.
BUF gets the edge right now, their D can stop the run, 
Can HOU D stop the run even w/their recent p/u of NT Pickett?



09/28 1:00 PM
257 TEN 45½ UNDER
258 IND -7½ ****

IND should be favored by 2TDs, any other questions?
IND D numerous injuries
TEN QB Whitehurst starts, if he does well, I would sit Locker.
IND O should be running all over TEN D



09/28 1:00 PM
259 CAR 41 UNDER
260 BAL -3 ***

just thinking BAL WR Smith will be way UP for this game
CAR OL has issues...
BAL LT Monroe OUT
BAL LT Hurst starts (rookie)



09/28 1:00 PM
261 DET -1½ *
262 NYJ 45 over?

CHI beat NYJ at home, can another NFC North team do NYJ in?
DET new Kicker Henery



09/28 1:00 PM
263 TB 44½ *UNDER*
264 PIT -7½ **

does anyone think TB will hang within 3TDs?



09/28 4:05 PM
265 JAC 44½ **UNDER**
266 SD -13 ***

JAC QB Bortles starts? It won't matter...



09/28 4:25 PM
267 PHI 50½ *
268 SF -5½ over

PHI has been having it's way, coming back in the 2nd half, I wonder if that stops here?
2 teams  opposite directions?
a tale of two halves
SF 1st half team
PHI 2nd half team
PHI has played 3 different games defensively



09/28 4:25 PM
269 ATL -3 **
270 MIN 46½ UNDER

I was thinking this was a dome team game, but was gently reminded of MIN new temporary digs. MIN new QB, RB, new low?



09/28 8:30 PM
271 NO -3 **OVER**
272 DAL 53 *

Hoping for a game of fireworks, but if DAL has any brains, it's run on NO..



09/29 8:30 PM
273 NE -3½ ***UNDER***
274 KC 45 *

I'm surprised the spread isn't more

2014 - week 04 - TNF - picks

Over the total seems to be the sensible play.....
I know, I'm picking against an early season trend of the home team winning ATS & SU on Thursday Night Football, but taking the points in division games is a normal thing for me..

rest of the weekend to follow...

09/25 8:25 PM
101 NYG 45½ *
102 WAS -3½ OVER

??RAIN??
WAS appears to be more beat up than NYG

2013 - week 04 - results

SF @STL, I had expected TE Davis not to play as well as G Iupati, they each were very important for SF O and their drives for TDs. On a short week SF came together and got the difficult road win, w/LB's Willis and Smith out. SF RB Gore really controlled the game, guess I should pay more attention to when he says he wants the ball more and that they didn't run the ball enough w/their last game vs IND. STL played tough at first but then fell flat, that emo high didn't last long enough. STL injuries didn't help and SF D stuffed their run game. Key play, - SF 3rd and 10, around mid field, mid Q2, completion to WR Boldin and SF seems to be in control (SF goes on to score TD) especially w/STL run O AND run D sputtering.

Hmmm, PIT arrives in Wembley on a 48hr schedule instead of the 4 day schedule MIN chose? Advantage MIN? yep and MIN OL and DL played so much better than the past few games this season. Another former NE backup QB does well (Cassel, CLE QB Hoyer is winning at the moment).

CHI @DET, wow DET starts out w/3FG's and turns it around on TO's. CHI QB Cutler has 3 TO's any more? DET RB not bad game, would be a lot better if he didn't fumble, but he's gaining yds and scoring TD's. DET broke it open in Q2.

PHI @DEN, yep it doesn't appear any team can keep up w/Manning and Co.

NE @ATL, fairly tight, but again a curious play call, ATL goes for it on 4th down instead of kicking FG in Q1? (I think), NE pulls away and ATL gets another "L". It's as if ATL hasn't found an indentity on offense, but apparently NE knows how to stop ATL from 'going to the well' by doubling team TE Gonzalez on the LoS (line of scrimmage) great in-game adjustment by NE during Q4.

Overall another .500 day ATS, but really well for totals, approx 2/3 correct or 66% correct

2013 - week 04 - results

2013 - week 04 - picks

09/29 1:00 PM
199 PIT -1 **
200 MIN 42½ over

0-3 vs 0-3 even more desperate
@Wembley Stadium, London, England

no home field advantage for MIN
MIN FB Felton returns


09/29 1:00 PM
201 BAL -3½ ****
202 BUF 43½ *UNDER*

BUF COSTLY DEFEAT, 20s team, @least 4players inj'd from LW
BUF DE Carrington IR OFY
BUF appears to be regressing on O and D
BAL emphasis on run O?


09/29 1:00 PM
203 CIN -5½ **
204 CLE 41½ under

CLE returns to earth?


09/29 1:00 PM
205 IND -9 **
206 JAC 42½ under

JAC QB Gabbert starts
IND EXCELLENT 1st half bet as favorite
as JAC tends to score in Q4 (garbage time )


09/29 1:00 PM
207 SEA -3 **
208 HOU 43 under

HOU O regressing, D progressing


09/29 1:00 PM
209 ARI 41 ***UNDER***
210 TB -3 *

ARI practicing in FL (did not return home)
ARI LBx2 Acho and Alexander IR OFY
(also core ST players)
ARI D can't cover TE's
TB D zone schemes, big day for ARI WR's?
really tempted to take ARI
TB QB Glennon startS



09/29 1:00 PM
211 CHI 48½ *over
212 DET -2½ *

CHI DT Melton OUT
DET DE Jones OUT
DET WR Burleson OUT



09/29 1:00 PM
213 NYG 44 UNDER
214 KC -4 *

KC O/ST 0 TO's this season, amazing D
KC 10 days rest


09/29 4:05 PM
215 NYJ 39 ***UNDER***
216 TEN -4½ **

NYJ D sacking team (x8 vs BUF)
TEN should win SU, will they cover?
LY NYJ 10 @TEN 14


09/29 4:25 PM
217 DAL -2 *
218 SD 46½ **OVER**

DAL needs to prove they can win on the road this season
SD OL best up?
changed initial pick from SD/O to DAL/O


09/29 4:25 PM
219 WAS -3 *
220 OAK 47½ *over*

OAK QB Flynn starts?
?pts prudent? I originally took OAK/O changed to WAS/O


09/29 4:25 PM
221 PHI 57½ over
222 DEN -10 **

PHI 0-3 desperate, players on the fence? w/Kelly? or w/o Kelly?
PHI 10 days rest


09/29 8:30 PM
223 NE -1 **UNDER**
224 ATL 49 *

NE 3-0 @ATL 1-2, ATL much more desperate and plays better at home,
ATL has played the tougher schedule and though depleted, keeps calm and wins the game
ATL excellent? 1st half bet


09/30 8:40 PM
225 MIA 47 over?
226 NO -6 **

MIA LW LUCKY? COSTLY WIN?
MIA DE Wake OUT

TEAMS w/10 days rest 4-0 ATS/SU (BAL, DEN, NYJ, NE) this week KC, PHI

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) PIT, MIN, TB, WAS
Teams Going into Bye 1-1 ATS/SU (CAR, GB)

2013 - week 04 - Thursday picks

09/26 8:25 PM
101 SF -3 ***UNDER***
102 STL 42½ *

SF LBx2 Willis and Smith OUT
SF TE Davis OUT
SF O in a ?funk? last 2 weeks
STL ST issues/penalites last 2 weeks


PERSONNEL CHANGES from last years game @STL
SF w/o starters(7) 
D (4 = NT,LBx2,FS)
O (3 = WRx2,TE)
[might be 4 if SF G Iupati out]

STL w/o starters(9)
D (5 = DE,SLB,WLB,SS,FS)
O (4 = OLx3,RB)

Neither team at 1-2 W-L records are in a groove, they may be in a rut, SF O is ineffective w/o WR's and TE plus loss of personnel for this game points toward the home dog. It's also a short week and STL O seems to be about the same as last year.