2015 - week 03 - results

ugghhh, what an ugly game, I'm talking about Thursday night WAS @NYG.
WAS played ok except for turnovers, QB questionable throws, ST snafus, player attrition and questionable play calling by OC and DC.
NYG did win, but they have just as many issues to contend with. Really ugly to watch....Way to start the weekend 0-fer... sigh


Finally, I'm above .500 ATS for the season (25-22-1) as I ended up 11-5 for the week ATS.
I also ended up above .500 for totals this week 8-7-1, I just need to rise above .500 for the season (18-29-1 - looks really tough with my rough start)

2015 - week 03 - results

2015 - week 03 - picks

note:
UPDATES 9/25: numbers for NO @CAR and DEN @DET (picks unchanged)
due to uncertainty of starting QBs of NO and DET
for games, NO @CAR and DEN @DET
numbers you see will likely be updated on Friday/Saturday

GiB = Going into Bye (NE, TEN)
WH = White Hat
AFC West, road warriors this week

Last week, wk1 TNF teams NE and PIT, wk2 results 2-0 ATS/SU
This week, wk2 TNF teams DEN and KC ?-?

09/24 8:25 PM
301 WAS 44 *
302 NYG -4 under

WAS 1st road game
w/WAS UNDER 2-0
WAS/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NYG has swept last 4 games 
w/NYG DOG 2-0 ATS
NYG Opponent/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NYG/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH ROAD 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
461 PIT -1 *****
462 STL 47½ over

PIT has won last 2 games (07, 11) by 17 and 27 pts
PIT RB Bell returns
PIT/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
STL OL average? run block
w/STL home team 2-0 ATS
WH ROAD 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
463 SD 45 *over*
464 MIN -2½ *

BIG W/L?(MIN) or CLOSE W/L?(SD) - alternating W/L
w/SD HomeFav 2-0 ATS
SD/SD opponent/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
w/MIN Home/Under 2-0 ATS
w/MIN Under only 6pt teaser 2-0. over 0-2 this season
WH FAV 2-0 SU
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS



09/27 1:00 PM
465 TB 40½ *
466 HOU -6½ ***UNDER***

teams have only play 3x, margin of victory 13,14,28 HOU leads 2-1 series
w/TB DOG 2-0 ATS
w/TB Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
HOU LG ?liability? RT? OL issues 3rd new starting 5 in 3 weeks
w/HOU OVER 2-0
HOU opponent/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
HOU opponent/Over/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
467 PHI 47½ under
468 NYJ -2½ **

PHI HC Kelly 'I was embarrassed'
PHI beat up?
PHI has swept series 9-0
w/PHI DOG/UNDER 2-0 ATS
NYJ 2-0 ATS
NYJ/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH UNDER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
469 NO 42½ ***UNDER***
470 CAR -8 **

NO QB Brees out? L McCown starts?
NO 0-2 ATS 
NO O 'turd'
CAR 2-0 ATS
CAR/Under 6pt teaser 2-0
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH UNDER 2-0
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
471 JAC 47½ under
472 NE -13½ *

JAC 1st road game
w/JAC under only 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NE has swept series 6-0
NE/Over 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
NE GiB



09/27 1:00 PM
473 CIN 44 *
474 BAL -3 over

CIN has won L3G
CIN 2-0 ATS
CIN/Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
BAL 0-2 ATS
BAL home opener
WH OVER 2-0



09/27 1:00 PM
475 OAK 42 *
476 CLE -3½ **OVER**

OAK 1st road game
w/OAK OVER 2-0
CLE has won L2G (has won L3G @CLE)
w/CLE home/over 2-0 ATS
w/CLE Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
477 IND -3½ *
478 TEN 45½ over

IND has won L3G
IND 0-2 ATS/SU
IND opponent/under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
w/TEN DOG/OVER 2-0 ATS
TEN home opener, GiB
TEN RT Warmack OUT
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 1:00 PM
479 ATL -1 ***
480 DAL 44½ UNDER

ATL/Under 2-0 ATS
w/ATL DOG 2-0 ATS
DAL QB Brandon Weeden STARTS
DAL TE Witten?
w/DAL DOG 2-0 ATS
DAL/Under 6pt teaser 2-0 this season
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU



09/27 4:05 PM
481 SF 43½ over
482 ARI -6½ *

w/SF home team 2-0 ATS
ARI/Over 2-0 ATS
ARI OL starts? RT Massie? LG Iupati?
ARI PR ?



09/27 4:25 PM
483 CHI 44 **OVER**
484 SEA -14½ *
 
CHI QB Jimmy Clausen STARTS
CHI 1st road game
w/CHI Fav/Over 2-0 ATS
SEA has won L3G during regular season
w/SEA home team 2-0 ATS
w/SEA over only 6pt teaser 2-0
WH UNDER 2-0



09/27 4:25 PM
485 BUF 43½ ***
486 MIA -3 under

w/BUF Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
La Canfora on Miami 'can't run the ball and can't stop the run''horrible dynamic'
MIA DC?
w/MIA Under only 6pt teaser 2-0
MIA home opener
WH FAV 2-0 ATS
WH OVER 2-0
WH FAV 2-0 SU



09/27 8:30 PM
487 DEN -3 *****
488 DET 44½ under?

DEN 2-0 ATS
DET has won L2G
DET QB Stafford out? Orlovsky starts?
DET DC?
DET home opener
w/DET HomeFav 2-0 ATS 
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
Question: When will DEN HC/OC Kubiak let QB Manning run his Offense all game?



09/28 8:30 PM
489 KC 49 over
490 GB -7 *

w/KC Dog/Over 2-0 ATS
w/KC Over only 6pt teaser 2-0
GB 2-0 ATS
GB/Over/Under 6pt teaser 2-0
GB/opponent/Over/Under 7pt teaser 2-0 this season ('middle')
WH HOME 2-0 ATS
WH DOG 2-0 ATS
WH FAV 0-2 SU

2014 - week 03 - results

Much better results than past two weeks. I hope to get better....

NYG O,D,ST finally get going, HOU O sputters too much, middle of D can't stop run
PIT really surprises me with domination of CAR. CAR QB Newton should sit until he heals, he seems much more tentative
Superbowl rematch w/DEN @SEA, and I couldn't get the side or total correct

2014 - week 03 results

2014 - week 03 - rest of the week picks

So Thursday was a thrashing for the whole football world to see, pretty boring if you ask me...

9/20 UPDATE: changed pick GB/Over to DET/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick PHI/Over to WAS/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick MIA/Under to KC/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick DAL/Under to STL/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
451 SD 44 **
452 BUF -2½ UNDER

SD coming off a high beating SEA SB champs on the road
so they should be able to beat BUF right?



09/21 1:00 PM
453 DAL -1 *over
454 STL 44½ *

I wonder if DAL is a road warrior this year? SU this year so far 0-1 @home, 1-0 on the road
changed pick from DAL/Under to STL/Over
STL looks like they will run the ball, STL QB Davis appears to be fairly accurate
STL should be motivated w/last year's loss to DAL



09/21 1:00 PM
455 WAS 50½ *
456 PHI -6½ *over

if the NFC East are homer teams then this fits the billing
well so far, only WAS fits the homer profile so far
change pick from PHI/Over to WAS/Over



09/21 1:00 PM
457 HOU -1½ ***
458 NYG 41½ under

another cupcake on HOU schedule, see vsWAS wk1 @OAK wk2



09/21 1:00 PM
459 MIN 49½ over
460 NO -10 **

NO CB Robinson is getting beat regularly, so I think MIN should be able to move the ball, but can they do it consistently. I like the side much more than the total



09/21 1:00 PM
461 TEN 42½ UNDER
462 CIN -7 ***

TEN really surprised me in week 1, but KC does have injury issues. CIN looks like cream of the crop at this time



09/21 1:00 PM
463 BAL -1½ *
464 CLE 41½ under

This is a gauge game for CLE, BAL has had 10 days to prep. 
Under the total maybe the best bet as both teams have stout Ds and try to run the ball consistently. I see FGs....



09/21 1:00 PM
465 GB 52½ *OVER*
466 DET -2½ *

GB has a lot of early season injuries, DET still plays like a young team, so maybe at home they'll get the win. I like the total to go way over...
changing pick from GB/Over to DET/Over



09/21 1:00 PM
467 IND -7 over
468 JAC 45½ *

One of these 0-2 teams has to win, IND should win, I'm unsure if they'll cover. JAC should be playing way up for this div game.



09/21 1:00 PM
469 OAK 47 under
470 NE -14 **

just what the doctor ordered for NE, another cupcake...



09/21 4:05 PM
471 SF -3 *UNDER*
472 ARI 42 *

another defensive slugfest, I think I'll take the points



09/21 4:25 PM
473 DEN 48 **
474 SEA -5½ over

OOooo a SB rematch and the champs lost a game last week.
So if DEN has the formula to beat SEA, can they execute it?



09/21 4:25 PM
475 KC 42½ *
476 MIA -4 *over*

it's hard to take KC with all their early season injuries
changed pick from MIA/Under to KC/Over



09/21 8:30 PM
477 PIT 41½ UNDER
478 CAR -3½ **

PIT has had 10 days to prep, but CAR D is better than BAL



09/22 8:35 PM
479 CHI 45½ *
480 NYJ -3 OVER

it's MNF and NYJ Offense should be able to score, I just don't know if their secondary will keep up with the Marshalls and Jefferies...

2014 - week 03 - TNF picks

Just can't find the time to pick all this weeks game at the moment, so for now here's Thursday picks and rest will follow

09/18 8:25 PM
301 TB 47 UNDER
302 ATL -6 ***

TB HC Smith lost confidence? in QB McCown?

2013 - week 03 - results

KC @PHI, TNF, turnovers by PHI, 1 on ST, 3 on O (center-QB exchange, 2 ints), at the half KC leads 16-6, a FG (KC K Succop did miss a FG) under 25 or half of the total. With less than 2 min to go PHI RB McCoy injured, high ankle sprain? he returns to the game Q3. KC NT DeVito neck injury also a great concern.
Curious call by PHI, going for a 2 pt PAT in Q1, why? why? why? there is no good answer, unless PHI HC Kelly thinks the game will be lower scoring and they need to score as much as possible, but who really knows?
2nd Half, notable less scoring, game seems to be dragging for PHI and in control for KC, an impressive win on a short week. KC did more in all three phases of the game than PHI could. PHI D played much better than previous games, thus under the total won.

TB @NE, will preseason practice sessions give TB enough of an edge to stay close to NE? nope! gave an edge for NE


Of all the upsets in my mind, the biggest is CLE winning on the road @MIN, so unexpected, w/a new QB and RB and the recent trade of their best RB to IND, this game really sticks out for me as not normal.
9/24 update: The officiating crew led by Leary has erred again to the detriment of MIN (a time out should have been taken away and no 15 yd penalty)

penalized MIN 15 yd, MIN w/ball 1st and 25 @CLE 41 

should have been MIN w/ball 1st and 10 @CLE 26 w/2 time outs instead of 3

HUGE ERROR
note: same crew err'd in wk 1 GB @SF, to the dismay of GB

NYG losing on the road is very disappointing to their fans and an uplifting win for CAR

CIN winning at home is huge vs GB and maybe the ball is bouncing their way for the season

BAL winning @home vs HOU is another win that's unexpected for me, this was also a induction game for former Raven Lewis. Early on an interception returned for a TD and a punt returned for a TD were the big sparks that doomed HOU in addition to their 3FG's (instead of TDs).

Funny, how xNYG LB Blackburn really helps his new team CAR w/their win and yet xBAL S Reed doesn't do the same for his new team HOU @BAL.

Teams going into bye week were 1-1 (GB lost, CAR won)


Results below, not a single game on the $$ (won both sides and totals) split the majority of games, I didn't get to half correct for totals ... sigh...

2013 - week 03 - results

2013 - week 03 - picks

09/22 1:00 PM
391 SD 44 **
392 TEN -3½ OVER?

SD WR Floyd OUT - concussion
they've both played HOU this year (G1 & G2)
but I suspect, HOU would rather play TEN again


09/22 1:00 PM
393 CLE 41 UNDER
394 MIN -5½ ***

0-2 vs 0-2 desperate
CLE QB Weeden OUT, QB Hoyer starts
9/18 update: CLE RB Richardson trade to IND, CLE RB Rainey starts?
so CLE with new starting QB and RB, week 3 of season, I'm thinking CLE mgmt gave up in preseason


09/22 1:00 PM
395 TB 44½ *
396 NE -7 ***UNDER***

TB O's woes
TB D penalty prone
TB FS Goldson susp'd
NE O's woes
Should I give up pts? TB SU not good on the road
internal issues w/TB?


09/22 1:00 PM
397 HOU -2½ *
398 BAL 45 *under?

HOU O issues?
HOU S Ed Reed starts?
HOU LT Brown OUT? 'turf toe'
BAL can't go deep w/o WR Jones, TE issues
LY HOU won @home 43-13, HOU O 'big chunks'


09/22 1:00 PM
399 STL 47 *
400 DAL -4 *over

?it's a game DAL should win, but will they?


09/22 1:00 PM
401 ARI 48½ *over*
402 NO -7½ *

ARI can they move the ball consistently?
ARI WR Fitzgerald out???
ARI 2ndary playing well, adjust in 2nd half
9/20 update: changing pick from ARI/U to NO/O


09/22 1:00 PM
403 DET 49 **
404 WAS -2 OVER?

DET 0-18 @WAS (last 18 games)
DET penalties keep it close?
DET RB Bush OUT???
DET needs RB Bell to catch ball
WAS D tackling & ST woes


09/22 1:00 PM
405 GB -2 *
406 CIN 48 *over?

CIN 2ndary short a player



09/22 1:00 PM
407 NYG 45½ *
408 CAR -1½ under (1st Half)? over (whole game)?

0-2 vs 0-2 desperate
NYG ST issues allowed 3TD in 2G
NYG players "must win"
CAR FS Godfrey IR (best 2ndary player?)
CAR 2ndary beat UP
CAR O issues
CAR DL 'lighter'


09/22 4:05 PM
409 ATL 44 *under?
410 MIA -1½ *

ATL DE Beirmann, FB Ewing, WLB Weatherspoon IR
ATL RB Jackson OUT
ATL a bit beat up? ATL depth?
ATL costly? win last wk vs STL
ATL 4 new starters FB, RB, DE, LB


09/22 4:25 PM
411 IND 46 under
412 SF -10½ **

SF DTx2 inj'd
9/18 update: 'traded' IND RB Richardson starts?


09/22 4:25 PM
413 JAC 41 **UNDER**
414 SEA -20 *

Will JAC score?
SEA LT Okung OUT
SEA O slow starts past 2 games, get well game?


09/22 4:25 PM
415 BUF 39 *
416 NYJ -2½ over?

NYJ O shaky at best, should run more
BUF DC Pettine xNYJ DC 09-12, edge?


09/22 8:30 PM
417 CHI -2½ ***
418 PIT 40 UNDER



09/23 8:40 PM
419 OAK 49½ UNDER
420 DEN 14½ *****

OAK SS Branch OUT
OAK LG Nix OUT???
DEN LT Clady OUT

2013 - week 03 - Thursday picks

09/19 8:25 PM
301 KC 50½ ***
302 PHI -3 OVER

KC ST struggles except for punter
PHI vs another veteran QB

KC HC Reid knows the majority of PHI personnel, but much more important PHI D can't stop teams w/a QB that knows how to milk the clock and play keep away. Big edge KC