The LVRJ had a fairly recent post see:
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/here-are-the-nfl-2017-regular-season-win-totals/
as well as this: http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-win-totals
there's also season props here:
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-props
With the recent news of NYJ overhaul/rebuilding that 5.5 win season total win is mighty high.
Reviewing this upcoming season games for NYJ, I would guess that their weakness opponents are JAC (week 4 @home) and CLE (week 5 on the road). They also play BUF (week 1 on the road and week 9 @home). Another team I think they might have a chance are @DEN(week 14) and vs SD (week 16). But the more I look at it, the more I think they have a chance of going 0-fer.
Going 0-fer pays 1400-to-1 at oddsshark.
I'd place $ on under the season win total of 5.5 for the NYJ and if you can find an 0-fer bet I bet on it occuring this season, particularly since the teams that NYJ have a chance of beating all appear to better. In some cases, like JAC and DEN their D will likely hold NYJ to a FG or two.
BUF may just run them over and SD at the end of the season may still be in the playoff hunt and likely not concede anything to NYJ.
Bettin' in vegas, ATS (against the spread), O/U (Over/Under Total points), SU (Straight Up), just for recreational betting
Tuesday, June 06, 2017
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
2017 - OT shortened to 10 minutes - an angle to bet on? or bet against?
I read this: http://www.footballzebras.com/2017/05/23/owners-approve-shortened-overtime-dont-know/
and noted the article stated that if this had been implemented last season, then there would be 3 additional games ending up as tied.
I recall ARI HC Arians stating that after their 6-6 OT game w/SEA, their team did not have a normal week for the next game. I believe he stated they only had a walk thru instead of the normal practice.
This opens up a betting opportunity - betting against teams the following week after participating in OT game that went the full length of OT. Even though OT has been shortened from 15 min to 10 min, the way it affects team preparation for the following game appears to be a situation that's hard to ignore.
It is a small sample size to review from last year and their aren't many OT games during the season.
How it affects teams performance in the following game needs to be reviewed in more detail.
2016 season, OT game, following week SU results:
week 1 SD @KC 27-33, week 2 JAC @SD 14-38, KC @HOU 12-19 (W, L) [sd l,w] [kc w,l]
week 3 CLE @MIA 24-30, week 4 CLE @WAS 20-31, MIA @CIN 7-22 (L, L)[cle l,l][mia w,l]
week 6 IND @HOU 23-26, week 7 IND @TEN 34-26, HOU @DEN 9-27 (W, L)[ind l,w][hou w,l]
week 7 SD @ATL 33-30, week 8 SD @DEN 19-27, GB @ATL 32-33 (L, W)[sd w,l][ atl l,w]
week 7 SEA @ARI 6-6, week 8 SEA @NO 20-25, ARI @CAR 20-30 (L, L)[sea t,l][ari t,l]
week 8 WAS @CIN 27-27, week 9 bye, bye
week 8 OAK @TB 30-24, week 9 DEN @OAK 20-30, ATL @TB 43-28 (W, L)[oak w,w][tb l,l]
week 8 PHI @DAL 23-29, week 9 PHI @NYG 23-28, DAL @CLE 35-10 (L, W)[phi l,l][dal w,w]
week 9 DET @MIN 22-16, week 10 bye, MIN @WAS 20-26 (bye, L)[det w,bye][min l,l]
week 12 KC @DEN 30-27, week 13 KC @ATL 29-28, DEN @JAC 20-10 (W, W)[kc w,w][den l,w]
week 14 NYJ @SF 23-17, week 15 MIA @NYJ 34-13, SF @ATL 13-41 (L, L)[nyj w,l][sf l,l]
week 16 MIA @BUF 34-31, week 17 NE @MIA 35-14, BUF @NYJ 10-30 (L, L)[mia w,l][buf l,l]
week 17 CLE @PIT 21-27, week 18 playoffs - CLE out, MIA @PIT 12-30 (DNP, W)[cle l,dnp][pit w,w]
interestingly enough;
prior to week 8 team that loses OT wins following game (except for CLE)
prior to week 8 team that wins OT loses following game
after week 8 team that loses OT loses following game (except den vs atl close game, cle dnp)
after week 8 team that wins OT wins following game (except DET bye, nyj vs div, mia vs div)
so it appears:
prior to mid season, bet against winner of OT the following week
prior to mid season, bet on loser of OT the following week (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet against loser of OT (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet on winner of OT, the following week (w/a lot of reservation to not bet)
and noted the article stated that if this had been implemented last season, then there would be 3 additional games ending up as tied.
I recall ARI HC Arians stating that after their 6-6 OT game w/SEA, their team did not have a normal week for the next game. I believe he stated they only had a walk thru instead of the normal practice.
This opens up a betting opportunity - betting against teams the following week after participating in OT game that went the full length of OT. Even though OT has been shortened from 15 min to 10 min, the way it affects team preparation for the following game appears to be a situation that's hard to ignore.
It is a small sample size to review from last year and their aren't many OT games during the season.
How it affects teams performance in the following game needs to be reviewed in more detail.
2016 season, OT game, following week SU results:
week 1 SD @KC 27-33, week 2 JAC @SD 14-38, KC @HOU 12-19 (W, L) [sd l,w] [kc w,l]
week 3 CLE @MIA 24-30, week 4 CLE @WAS 20-31, MIA @CIN 7-22 (L, L)[cle l,l][mia w,l]
week 6 IND @HOU 23-26, week 7 IND @TEN 34-26, HOU @DEN 9-27 (W, L)[ind l,w][hou w,l]
week 7 SD @ATL 33-30, week 8 SD @DEN 19-27, GB @ATL 32-33 (L, W)[sd w,l][ atl l,w]
week 7 SEA @ARI 6-6, week 8 SEA @NO 20-25, ARI @CAR 20-30 (L, L)[sea t,l][ari t,l]
week 8 WAS @CIN 27-27, week 9 bye, bye
week 8 OAK @TB 30-24, week 9 DEN @OAK 20-30, ATL @TB 43-28 (W, L)[oak w,w][tb l,l]
week 8 PHI @DAL 23-29, week 9 PHI @NYG 23-28, DAL @CLE 35-10 (L, W)[phi l,l][dal w,w]
week 9 DET @MIN 22-16, week 10 bye, MIN @WAS 20-26 (bye, L)[det w,bye][min l,l]
week 12 KC @DEN 30-27, week 13 KC @ATL 29-28, DEN @JAC 20-10 (W, W)[kc w,w][den l,w]
week 14 NYJ @SF 23-17, week 15 MIA @NYJ 34-13, SF @ATL 13-41 (L, L)[nyj w,l][sf l,l]
week 16 MIA @BUF 34-31, week 17 NE @MIA 35-14, BUF @NYJ 10-30 (L, L)[mia w,l][buf l,l]
week 17 CLE @PIT 21-27, week 18 playoffs - CLE out, MIA @PIT 12-30 (DNP, W)[cle l,dnp][pit w,w]
interestingly enough;
prior to week 8 team that loses OT wins following game (except for CLE)
prior to week 8 team that wins OT loses following game
after week 8 team that loses OT loses following game (except den vs atl close game, cle dnp)
after week 8 team that wins OT wins following game (except DET bye, nyj vs div, mia vs div)
so it appears:
prior to mid season, bet against winner of OT the following week
prior to mid season, bet on loser of OT the following week (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet against loser of OT (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet on winner of OT, the following week (w/a lot of reservation to not bet)
Labels:
following week of OT,
OT,
quarter shortened,
results,
rule change
Sunday, February 05, 2017
2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - results
So an OT win for NE vs ATL at SB LI with an ending score of 34-28. I wasn't too far off with my thoughts of a 35-30 game. The favorite/over combo won the money. My instincts are thinking the sports books got hit hard.
What a game, things were really looking bleak for NE with ATL up 28-3 in Q3 and I also thought the game was over as well, but I wonder if game management by ATL could have been better, when they had field position and could have score a FG, but Brady, Belichick and their Defense woke up after that doink (the missed PAT) and now we have a very memorable Super Bowl LI...
What a game, things were really looking bleak for NE with ATL up 28-3 in Q3 and I also thought the game was over as well, but I wonder if game management by ATL could have been better, when they had field position and could have score a FG, but Brady, Belichick and their Defense woke up after that doink (the missed PAT) and now we have a very memorable Super Bowl LI...
Labels:
2016,
playoffs week 4,
results,
Super Bowl,
SuperBowl LI,
week 21
Sunday, January 22, 2017
2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - picks
Two weeks away, but here's my instinct picks....
I normally would take under the total, but due to TV timeouts (and their length - longer than normal as compared to regular season) I'll go over... say... 35-30?
Below is a chart of each teams regular season opponents as well as the past two weeks of post season.
As you can see below, they have played 5 common opponents this season.
NE @ARI wk 1 win, ARI @ATL wk 12 win (CoBye)
SEA @ NE wk 10 loss (CoBye), ATL @SEA wk 6 loss
NE @SF wk 11 win, SF @ATL wk 15 win
LA @NE wk 13 win, ATL @LA wk 14 win
NE @DEN wk 15 win, ATL @DEN wk 5 win
not much difference, if they played the opponent earlier in the season it was 'close', later on in the season much more scoring, a larger difference in scoring
02/05 6:30 PM 101 NE -3 * 102 ATL 59 over
I normally would take under the total, but due to TV timeouts (and their length - longer than normal as compared to regular season) I'll go over... say... 35-30?
Below is a chart of each teams regular season opponents as well as the past two weeks of post season.
As you can see below, they have played 5 common opponents this season.
NE @ARI wk 1 win, ARI @ATL wk 12 win (CoBye)
SEA @ NE wk 10 loss (CoBye), ATL @SEA wk 6 loss
NE @SF wk 11 win, SF @ATL wk 15 win
LA @NE wk 13 win, ATL @LA wk 14 win
NE @DEN wk 15 win, ATL @DEN wk 5 win
not much difference, if they played the opponent earlier in the season it was 'close', later on in the season much more scoring, a larger difference in scoring
NE OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif ARI road 23 21 W W 2 MIA home 31 24 W W 7 HOU home 27 0 W W 27 BUF home 0 16 L L -16 CLE road 33 13 W W 20 CIN home 35 17 W W 18 PIT road 27 16 W W 11 BUF road 41 25 W W 16 bye bye bye SEA home 24 31 L L -7 SF road 30 17 W W 13 NYJ road 22 17 W L 5 LA home 26 10 W W 16 BAL home 30 23 W L 7 DEN road 16 3 W W 13 NYJ home 41 3 W W 38 MIA road 35 14 W W 21 bye bye bye HOU home 34 16 W W 18 PIT home 36 17 W W 19 ATL OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif TB home 24 31 L L -7 OAK road 35 28 W W 7 NO road 45 32 W W 13 CAR home 48 33 W W 15 DEN road 23 16 W W 7 SEA road 24 26 L W -2 SD home 30 33 L L -3 GB home 33 32 W L 1 TB road 43 28 W W 15 PHI road 15 24 L L -9 bye bye bye ARI home 38 19 W W 19 KC home 28 29 L L -1 LA road 42 14 W W 28 SF home 41 13 W W 28 CAR road 33 16 W W 17 NO home 38 32 W L 6 bye bye bye SEA home 36 20 W W 16 GB home 44 21 W W 23
2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - results
just sucked ..... 0-2 ATS 1-1 totals, fav/over won for each game
the 2nd game PIT @NE was going at an under pace, until end of 1st half, from then on it was an over game....
the 2nd game PIT @NE was going at an under pace, until end of 1st half, from then on it was an over game....
Sunday, January 15, 2017
2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - picks
these games should be great to watch....
01/22 3:05 PM 311 GB 60 * 312 ATL -4½ *over* week 8 rematch ATL won 33-32 vs GB 01/22 6:40 PM 313 PIT 51½ * 314 NE -6 *under* week 7 rematch NE won 27-16 @PIT
2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - results
The late change of game time for PIT @KC due to an expected ice storm, may or may not have affected the game, but it did affect my thinking. It left me frozen I did not change my picks, I would have at least changed the total to under, but I doubt I would have changed to PIT -1
as for this weeks results (much better, odd how fav's won on saturday, and dogs won on sunday):
ATS: 3-1
Totals: 2-2
Saturday games were snoozers and Sundays games were much more exciting... on to next week
as for this weeks results (much better, odd how fav's won on saturday, and dogs won on sunday):
ATS: 3-1
Totals: 2-2
Saturday games were snoozers and Sundays games were much more exciting... on to next week
Sunday, January 08, 2017
2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - picks
well here goes nothing...
01/14 4:35 PM 301 SEA 51½ *over* 302 ATL -4½ * SEA doesn't do well on the road... 29-20? 01/14 8:15 PM 303 HOU 45 under 304 NE -16 * tempted to take pts, but this will be disciple against master... lol 27-6? 01/15 1:05 PM 305 PIT -1 over 306 KC 46½ * noted: PIT QB Roethlisberger wearing ankle boot after PO week 1 game 30-24? 01/15 4:40 PM 307 GB 51½ * 308 DAL -4 over We're seeing a performance for the ages w/GB QB Rogers 31-27?
2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - results
I can't believe it, but I guess it was time for this to happen...
ALL the home favorites won ATS(Against The Spread) and SU (Straight Up)
1st and 4th games went Over the total, with 2nd and 3rd games ending Under the total
I ended up 2-2 ATS and 0-4 for Totals.... just awful... sigh..
oh well, on to next week...
ALL the home favorites won ATS(Against The Spread) and SU (Straight Up)
1st and 4th games went Over the total, with 2nd and 3rd games ending Under the total
I ended up 2-2 ATS and 0-4 for Totals.... just awful... sigh..
oh well, on to next week...
Monday, January 02, 2017
2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - picks
Update 1/4: added White Hat(WH) records - tendencies - of which some are going against what I picked, maybe I'll change...
OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...
OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...
01/07 4:35 PM 101 OAK 37 under 102 HOU -3 * week 11 rematch OAK won 27-20 vs HOU (@OAK) OAK QB Cook starts? (1st) HOU QB Osweiler starts? Placing a first half bet on under (18½?) seems prudent Both teams will need to win running the ball, play good ST and outstanding D There should be a lot of punts, likely 6 to 7 punts each, with the most possessions to be 10 for each team. So 3 to 4 scores at most for each team Likely only 1 TD each and the rest FGs... Sports books posted a total of 37 (20-17) I'm thinking 16-13 at most... This game really looks like a 6pt tease candidate, w/OAK +9 and under 43 combo. or if you're into 'middling' do 6½ pt tease HOU +2½/OAK +9½ or under 43½/over 31½ as possible or if you're really fearful do a 7pt tease HOU +3/OAK +10 or under 44/over 30 as possible if OAK can win with run O, this game could be moneyline win WH 12-3 FAV SU (LY 13-2 FAV SU)
01/07 8:15 PM 103 DET 42½ * 104 SEA -7½ **over** judging by the total posted for this game, sportsbooks have questions 6 pt tease = DET +13½/over 36½ DET moneyline? normally I'd look at under due to SEA D prowess, but I'm thinking at the half a score of 13-10 or more is likely WH 3-12 Over-Under
01/08 1:05 PM 105 MIA 47 over 106 PIT -10 * week 6 rematch MIA won 30-15 vs PIT (@MIA) MIA QB Moore starts (3rd) 6 pt tease = PIT -4 over 41 MIA +16 (unsure if under 53 will win) PIT should win, cover? 31-20? WH 11-4 RoadATS & FAV SU (LY 12-3 FAV SU)
01/08 4:40 PM 107 NYG 44½ * 108 GB -4 **under** Placing a first half bet on under (22½?) seems prudent week 5 rematch GB won 23-16 vs NYG (@GB) 6 pt tease = under 50½ NYG +10 GB +1 (I don't think over 38½ will win) 21-17? WH 10-4-1 RoadATS 4-10-1 FAV-DOG-tie (LY 3-13 FAV-DOG)
Sunday, January 01, 2017
2016 - week 17 - results
An unusual season, but one I ended on the UP swing, which is nice.
No teams looks truly dominant, with all playoff bound teams having an Achilles heel (or two).
I'll remember this season for the white hats calling less penalties and there were far more sweeps of division series than I can recall.
SF will need to find a new direction as this franchise is in disarray. It was a waste of a season for former head coach Chip Kelly. Perhaps he'll find a position w/NE, just my guess as he and HC Belichick are good friends.
Week 17 results:
ATS : 10-6
Totals: 8-8
for the regular season:
ATS : 132-117-6
Totals: 130-119-6
No teams looks truly dominant, with all playoff bound teams having an Achilles heel (or two).
I'll remember this season for the white hats calling less penalties and there were far more sweeps of division series than I can recall.
SF will need to find a new direction as this franchise is in disarray. It was a waste of a season for former head coach Chip Kelly. Perhaps he'll find a position w/NE, just my guess as he and HC Belichick are good friends.
Week 17 results:
ATS : 10-6
Totals: 8-8
for the regular season:
ATS : 132-117-6
Totals: 130-119-6
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
2016 - week 17 - picks
aaahhh... the last week of the regular season - just as tough to pick (well at least for me) this week as last week...
01/01 1:00 PM 301 HOU 40 *under* 302 TEN -3 * HOU QB Savage starts (2nd) TEN QB Cassel starts (1st) 01/01 1:00 PM 303 BUF -6½ **under** 304 NYJ 44 * BUF interim HC OC Lynn BUF HC Ryan fired BUF QB Manuel starts NYJ QB Ftzpatrick starts 01/01 1:00 PM 305 BAL 41½ * 306 CIN -2½ *under* BAL WR Smith last game (retires?) BAL sweeps? CIN splits? 01/01 4:25 PM 307 NYG 44 * 308 WAS -8 over NYG in PO spot NYG splits? WAS sweeps? WAS must win for chance @PO spot 01/01 8:30 PM 309 GB -3 ***OVER*** 310 DET 46½ * winner NFC North champ GB sweeps? DET splits? 01/01 1:00 PM 311 JAC 47 ***over*** 312 IND -4½ * JAC RBs OUT who starts? JAC sweeps? IND splits? 01/01 1:00 PM 313 DAL 42½ under 314 PHI -6 * DAL sweeps? PHI splits? 01/01 1:00 PM 315 CHI 41 under 316 MIN -5½ * CHI sweeps? MIN splits? 01/01 1:00 PM 317 CAR 46½ * 318 TB -6½ over CAR splits? TB sweeps? TB must win for chance @PO spot 01/01 1:00 PM 319 CLE 44 * 320 PIT -7 under CLE splits? PIT sweeps? 01/01 4:25 PM 321 NO 56 ***over*** 322 ATL -7 * NO splits? ATL sweeps? ATL win/loss could affect PO seeding 01/01 1:00 PM 323 NE -9½ over 324 MIA 44½ *** NE likely AFC #1 seed NE sweeps? MIA splits? MIA in PO spot, could move up a knotch MIA QB Moore starts (2nd) MIA HC Gase we're not resting starters 01/01 4:25 PM 325 ARI -6½ * 326 LA 41 under ARI splits? LA sweeps? 01/01 4:25 PM 327 KC -5 * 328 SD 45½ over KC either AFC West champ or PO berth KC sweeps? SD splits? 01/01 4:25 PM 329 SEA -9½ * 330 SF 43 under SEA win/loss could affect PO seeding SEA win #2 seed SEA loss #3? seed SEA sweeps? SF splits? 01/01 4:25 PM 331 OAK 41½ under 332 DEN -2½ * OAK QB McGloin starts (1st) OAK either AFC West champ or PO berth OAK sweeps? DEN splits?
2016 - week 16 - results
not a good week... a sub .500 weekend..
week 16 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 6-9-1
and what are the chances of having identical ATS and Totals records???
for the season:
ATS: 122-111-6
Totals: 122-111-6
week 16 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 6-9-1
and what are the chances of having identical ATS and Totals records???
for the season:
ATS: 122-111-6
Totals: 122-111-6
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
2016 - week 16 - picks
The games with playoff motivation are easy to spot, the games w/o motivation are much tougher to predict...
12/22 8:25 PM 101 NYG -2½ * 102 PHI 41½ under wk9 NYG won 28-23 vs PHI sweep? sub-freezing, windy 12/24 1:00 PM 103 WAS -3½ *under* 104 CHI 45½ * WAS CoMNF (6 days between games) WAS vs NFC N 2-1 SU/ATS (MIN,GB-DET) CHI vs NFC E 0-3 SU 1-2 ATS (PHI,DAL,NYG) cloudy, cold 12/24 1:00 PM 105 MIA 42 * 106 BUF -4 over wk7 MIA won 28-25 vs BUF MIA ST 2wks-in-a-row block sweep? RAIN, gusty? cold 12/24 4:25 PM 107 TB 52½ * 108 NO -3 under wk14 TB won 16-11 vs NO sweep? 12/24 1:00 PM 109 ATL -2½ *over* 110 CAR 52 * ATL w/win clinch div and PO berth CAR spoiler? CAR CoMNF (6 days between games) wk4 ATL won 48-33 vs CAR split? 12/24 1:00 PM 111 MIN 43 over 112 GB -6½ * wk2 MIN won 17-14 vs GB split? cold, sun/cloud 12/24 1:00 PM 113 NYJ 44 * 114 NE -16½ *under* NE should win SU, but ATS? wk12 NE won 22-17 @NYJ sweep? RAIN, windy 12/24 1:00 PM 115 TEN -5 *** 116 JAC 44 under TEN will run over JAC JAC HC Bradley fired wk8 TEN won 36-22 vs JAC sweep? 12/24 1:00 PM 117 SD -6 under 118 CLE 44 * Peer Game SD 0-1 SU/ATS (MIA) CLE 0-1 SU 1-0 ATS (TEN) RAIN? windy 12/24 4:05 PM 119 IND 53 * 120 OAK -3½ *over* IND vs AFC W 1-2 SU/ATS (SD-DEN,KC) OAK vs AFC S 3-0 SU/ATS WH road 10-3-1 dog 10-3-1 12/24 4:25 PM 121 SF 40 under 122 LA -3½ * SF inj's wk1 SF won 28-0 vs LA split? WH FAV SU 9-4 12/24 4:25 PM 123 ARI 43 * 124 SEA -8½ *under* wk7 ARI tie 6-6 vs SEA WH FAV SU 11-2 12/24 8:25 PM 125 CIN 41 **UNDER** 126 HOU -1½ * CIN LB Burfict OUT? CIN LG Boling OUT? Peer Game CIN 0-1 SU/ATS (DEN) HOU 0-1 SU/ATS (NE) HOU QB Savage starts (1st) (nice Q4 comeback win last week vs JAC) 12/25 4:30 PM 127 BAL 44 under 128 PIT -5 * wk9 BAL won 21-14 vs PIT split? rain? wind? 12/25 8:30 PM 129 DEN 37½ ***under*** 130 KC -3½ * wk12 KC won 30-27 @DEN sweep? RAIN, GUSTY, COLD, clears? 12/26 8:30 PM 131 DET 43 over 132 DAL -7 * DET inj's? DET vs NFC E 2-1 SU/ATS (PHI,WAS-NYG) DAL vs NFC N 3-0 SU 2-1 ATS (CHI,GB,MIN)
2016 - week 15 - results
A really nice weekend ATS, but not nice at all for Totals.
(note: if I had not changed my pick for GB @CHI, I'd have a better record, then again if I had left my pick for JAC @HOU alone I would have had a worse record..
week 15 results:
ATS: 12-3-1
Totals: 6-8-2
for the season:
ATS: 115-102-6
Totals: 116-102-5
(note: if I had not changed my pick for GB @CHI, I'd have a better record, then again if I had left my pick for JAC @HOU alone I would have had a worse record..
week 15 results:
ATS: 12-3-1
Totals: 6-8-2
for the season:
ATS: 115-102-6
Totals: 116-102-5
Thursday, December 15, 2016
2016 - week 15 - picks
Update 12/17 changed HOU/Under to JAC/Under
Update 12/16 changed CHI/Over to GB/Under due to weather
I'm a bit tired, wish I could be more thorough...
Update 12/16 changed CHI/Over to GB/Under due to weather
I'm a bit tired, wish I could be more thorough...
12/15 8:25 PM 301 LA 38½ *under* 302 SEA -15 * LA HC Fisher fired ?20-10? 12/17 8:25 PM 303 MIA -2½ * 304 NYJ 38½ over MIA QB Moore starts NYJ inj's wk9 MIA won 27-23 vs NYJ MIA vs div SU/ATS 2-1 NYJ vs div SU 1-2 ATS 2-1 ?27-24? 12/18 8:30 PM 305 TB 46 * 306 DAL -7 **under** PEER game wk10 TB won 36-10 vs CHI (wk7 won 34-17 @SF) wk4 DAL won 24-17 @SF (wk3 won 31-17 vs CHI 12/18 1:00 PM 307 DET 41½ *under* 308 NYG -4½ * DET QB Stafford finger ?limited? DET vs NFC E SU/ATS 2-0 NYG vs NFC N SU 1-2 ATS 0-2-1 NYG last game @home SU 6-1 ATS 3-4 DET on the road SU 3-3 ATS 4-2 12/18 1:00 PM 309 PHI 41½ *under* 310 BAL -6 * PHI inj's BAL CoMNF 12/18 1:00 PM 311 GB -7 * 312 CHI 41 **under** wk7 GB won 26-10 vs CHI CHI WR Jeffery returns GB SU on moneyline, I don't expect them to lose SU just ATS loss 12/18 1:00 PM 313 IND 45 * 314 MIN -4 over IND inj's IND on the road SU 3-3 ATS 3-2-1 IND vs NFC N SU/ATS 2-1 MIN vs AFC S SU/ATS 3-0 MIN @home SU 4-2 ATS 5-1 12/18 1:00 PM 315 CLE 42 *under* 316 BUF -10 * CLE QB RGIII 3rd start (2nd in a row) 12/18 1:00 PM 317 TEN 42½ * 318 KC -5½ ***UNDER*** TEN CoTNF (10 days rest) PLAYOFF implications 12/18 1:00 PM 319 JAC 39½ * 320 HOU -6 *under* wk10 HOU WON 24-21 @JAC WH road dog ATS 9-3-1 not a game to bet on... 12/18 4:05 PM 321 NO 50½ * 322 ARI -2½ **over** NO on the road SU 2-4, ATS 5-1 NO 3-0 vs NFC W ARI last game @home SU 4-2-1 W-L-T ATS 3-4 ARI 1-2 vs NFC S (win TB, lost CAR ATL) ?27-24? 12/18 4:05 PM 323 SF 51½ ***UNDER*** 324 ATL -13½ *** SF injs 12/18 4:25 PM 325 NE -3 *** 326 DEN 44 *under* PEER game NE CoMNF NE on the road SU 6-0 ATS 5-1 DEN @home SU/ATS 4-2 12/18 4:25 PM 327 OAK -3 ***** 328 SD 50 over OAK CoTNF (10 days rest) OAK on the road SU/ATS 5-1 SD inj's wk5 OAK won 34-31 vs SD 12/18 1:00 PM 329 PIT -3 * 330 CIN 44 under wk2 PIT won 24-16 vs CIN PIT vs DIV SU/ATS 2-1 PIT final road game SU/ATS 4-3 CIN vs DIV SU/ATS 2-2 CIN @home SU 3-2-1 ATS 3-3 12/19 8:30 PM 331 CAR 51 over 332 WAS -4½ * PEER Game wk3 (Peer game 1) CAR lost vs MIN wk13 (Peer game 1) WAS lost @ARI CAR on the road, SU 1-5 ATS 1-4-1 WAS @home SU/ATS 4-2 WAS has inj's but CAR has not played very well in road games
Monday, December 12, 2016
2016 - week 14 - results
just above .500 ATS and above .666 for totals for this week
notes (highly unusual, its normally the opposite):
division sweeps = 5
(KC swept OAK, WAS swept PHI, CIN swept CLE, HOU swept IND, NYG swept DAL)
division splits = 1
(DET splits w/CHI)
week 14 results:
ATS: 9-7
Totals: 11-5
for the season results:
ATS: 103-99-5
Totals: 110-94-3
notes (highly unusual, its normally the opposite):
division sweeps = 5
(KC swept OAK, WAS swept PHI, CIN swept CLE, HOU swept IND, NYG swept DAL)
division splits = 1
(DET splits w/CHI)
week 14 results:
ATS: 9-7
Totals: 11-5
for the season results:
ATS: 103-99-5
Totals: 110-94-3
Monday, December 05, 2016
2016 - week 14 - picks
Changed pick from NE/Under to BAL/Under
Changed pick from GB/Over to SEA/Over
CoB (Coming off Bye)
CLE TEN
Changed pick from GB/Over to SEA/Over
CoB (Coming off Bye)
CLE TEN
12/08 8:25 PM 101 OAK 47 under 102 KC -3 * Which team is 'charmed'? 12/11 1:00 PM 105 DEN 43½ under 106 TEN -1 * TEN CoB 12/11 1:00 PM 107 SD 48½ * 108 CAR -3 under CAR CoSNF 12/11 1:00 PM 109 HOU 46½ **UNDER** 110 IND -5½ * IND CoMNF 12/11 1:00 PM 111 CIN -6 * 112 CLE 43½ over CLE CoB 12/11 1:00 PM 113 PIT -2 * 114 BUF 47½ ***OVER*** 12/11 1:00 PM 115 ARI 43½ * 116 MIA -2 over 12/11 1:00 PM 117 CHI 43½ *under* 118 DET -8 * 12/11 1:00 PM 119 MIN -3½ * 120 JAC 39½ **UNDER** MIN CoTNF 12/11 4:25 PM 121 NO 51½ under 122 TB -2½ * 12/11 1:00 PM 123 WAS -1 * 124 PHI 47 over 12/11 4:05 PM 125 NYJ 46½ under 126 SF -1 * NYJ CoMNF 12/11 4:25 PM 127 SEA -2½ * 128 GB 46½ *over * SEA FS Thomas IR OFY SEA CoSNF 12/11 4:25 PM 129 ATL -6 * 130 LA 45 **UNDER** 12/11 8:30 PM 131 DAL -3 * 132 NYG 47½ under DAL CoTNF 12/12 8:30 PM 133 BAL 46 * 134 NE -7½ *under*
2016 - week 13 - results
OUCH, week 13, awful ATS... and pretty good for totals...
week 13 results:
ATS: 5-10
Totals: 10-5
for the season:
ATS: 94-92-5
Totals: 99-89-3
week 13 results:
ATS: 5-10
Totals: 10-5
for the season:
ATS: 94-92-5
Totals: 99-89-3
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
2016 - week 13 - picks
With the news of CAR C Kalil and Gradkowski on IR, taking CAR on the road is iffy...
Hmmmmm?
AFC North loses all their games this week?
NFC East wins all their games this week?
Hmmmmm?
AFC North loses all their games this week?
NFC East wins all their games this week?
12/01 8:25 PM 301 DAL -3½ *** 302 MIN 44 under DAL CoTNF MIN CoTNF 12/04 1:00 PM 351 DEN -5 * 352 JAC 41 under DEN CoSNF OT 12/04 1:00 PM 353 KC 49½ ***over*** 354 ATL -3½ * KC CoSNF OT ATL wins vs teams w/winning record 12/04 1:00 PM 355 HOU 45½ **under** 356 GB -6 * HOU O awful GB CoMNF 12/04 1:00 PM 357 PHI -1 * 358 CIN 42½ *under* PHI a little more desperate? PHI CoMNF 12/04 1:00 PM 359 DET 53½ ***over*** 360 NO -6 * DET CoTNF PEER Game 12/04 1:00 PM 361 SF 43½ *** 362 CHI -1½ **under** CHI inj's continue LB Trevathan OFY PEER Game 12/04 1:00 PM 363 LA 44½ * 364 NE -13½ *under* NE will win, will they cover? 12/04 1:00 PM 365 MIA 41 *** 366 BAL -3½ *over* MIA coming of age? 12/04 4:05 PM 367 BUF 49 over 368 OAK -3 * PEER Game 12/04 4:25 PM 369 TB 47½ * 370 SD -4 over TB impressive past 2 weeks 12/04 4:25 PM 371 WAS 49½ *** 372 ARI -2½ under WAS CoTNF PEER Game 12/04 4:25 PM 373 NYG 49½ * 374 PIT -6 over Will Peytons help give NYG edge? PIT CoTNF 12/04 8:30 PM 375 CAR 44½ * 376 SEA -7 ***UNDER*** CAR rookie C Larsen starts (1st) 12/05 8:30 PM 377 IND -1½ *** 378 NYJ 49½ **over** Expecting IND QB Luck to start and dominate PEER Game
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