2015 - random thoughts....

The 2015 season is upon us and in a couple of days the season begins....

So I'm a bit confused with PIT @NE, the first game of the regular season awaiting my picks....

Right now I see NE favored by -7 and a total of 51.5 for most 'vegas sports books.

I'm confused by the similarities, neither team will have their starting Center and their secondaries are not as tested as last years version.

Is the emotion edge really with NE? (due to the recent court victory for QB Brady w/'deflate gate').

IMO NE QB Brady was not in sync w/the majority of WRs during preseason and PIT QB Roethlisberger was only slightly better w/his set of WRs

So I decided to look at last year and prior years records, so what better way than to review the '2015 NFL Record and Fact Book' (http://www.nfl.com/static/content/public/photo/2015/07/21/0ap3000000502939.pdf)

And though for the most part it's accurate (I guess, I reviewed it for about an hour or so...) I did find inaccuracies. Take for instance winning percentage, the formula should be wins divided by total games played, but I found instances where the calculated winning percentage did not include all games. In fact if you look at teams that had ties during the regular season. In this case I was reviewing Active coaches, I noted the above error where tied games were not included in the winning percentage, thus boosting the winning percentage of some coaches (page 27 for pdf reader, page 26 of the book).

I also noted an inaccuracy in TV markets where San Antonio is considered an NFL market, which is really odd to me since they don't have an NFL team in their market (starts on page 321).

So should I really consider this book as "factual"??? At 851 pages I guess inaccuracies will creep in with various editors. It's so massive they've included 'Digest of rules' and 'Official signals'.

I do like the Sunday Night Football All Time Standings for the AFC and NFC, as well as the Monday Night records as well. 'Inside the Numbers' is also interesting with 'Records of teams on Kickoff Weekend' (page 302) [CLE has lost 10 straight games for their openers, HOU has the longest win streak with 5 wins]. 'Starting Records of Active NFL QBs' is another gem (page 312). Records after Bye weeks (page 314) could be useful

and what did I review for this upcoming Thursday Night game on CBS? I looked at NE vs PIT regular season and in the past 10 or so years NE holds the edge (as well as in the post season) see 'All Time Records Team vs Team' (starts on page 403, NE vs PIT 465-466).

The home team has won the last 11 of 13 games for Opening Kickoff games (page 513)

Maybe useful???
Thanksgiving day results (page 521)
Interconference Games (page 522)

SU I guess NE is the pick, the question is will they cover -7? The total seems to be a bit high to me at 51.5, but if you consider both teams secondaries maybe this game will go over...

So the choices are NE/Over, NE/Under, PIT/Over, PIT/Under - an automatic 25% chance of picking the right combo...

Which combo will double your money???

2014 - week 22 - playoffs week 4, SB 49 - results

Wow, I'd like to say it was a game for the ages.

NE and Over the total won the money.

Just really odd to me 66 seconds to go ball on the 5 for SEA after what some will call a fluke catch by SEA WR.

I expected 3 or 4 running plays from SEA. NE is ahead 28-24, I guess every football fanatic will be questioning the SEA OC. SEA did gain 4 yds on 1st and goal, then the curious call for a slant pass on 2nd and goal. It's intercepted by NE and it's now end of story for NE especially after SEA D gets an encroachment penalty, which pushes the ball out to the 6 yd line and gives Brady and company the cushion for our traditional kneel.

Well the SB 49 champs are NE and the 2014 season comes to a close.

SEA and BAL will be tough to beat next season.

My playoff record this season just sucks....sigh...

Minor comment - the referees did not have the greatest of games, several non-calls or incorrect calls were made.

just one other comment Brady won the MVP, but NE won despite Brady's 2 ints. If anyone I'd vote for the CB Butler and of course my headline would be "The Butler did it",

2014 - week 22 - playoffs week 4, SB 49 - picks

early post.... and you'll noticed the bettors are putting their $$$ on NE
hopefully I'll remember to post my picks....

So I'm a bit late, but it's SEA and Under for me....

02/01 6:30 PM
101 NE -1 
102 SEA 48½ 






opened
101 NE  48½
102 SEA -3

2014 - week 20 - PO week 3 - picks

So I'm either crazy or a ...

01/18 3:05 PM
301 GB 47 *
302 SEA -7 under

strength vs strength, GB O vs SEA D



01/18 6:40 PM
303 IND 54 *
304 NE -7 over

IND underestimated?
NE lucky last week?

2014 - week 19 results

a lot better this week with picks (compared to last week). I ended up 2-2 ATS and for totals as well
So far home teams winning 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
CAR @SEA ended with up with a much higher total than expected due to SEA scoring on TO. And setting their Offense with a short field to score.
BAL and DAL, played well, but not good enough to win.
IND has 'arrived', they appear ready for NE

2014 - week 19 - playoffs week 2 - picks

so I hope this week will be better...

01/10 4:35 PM
111 BAL 49 OVER
112 NE -7 *

what PIT wouldn't do (just pass)
NE will do (NE in prior games vs BAL)



01/10 8:15 PM
113 CAR 40½ ***UNDER***
114 SEA -11 *

Just hard to see CAR getting any control in this game



01/11 1:05 PM
117 DAL 53 *UNDER*
118 GB -6½ *

should I take pts? DAL is good on the road



01/11 4:40 PM
119 IND 53½ *
120 DEN -7 *OVER*

Is this the 'young team' vs the 'old team'?

2014 - week 18 - results

OUCH! in hindsight if I had paid attention to my Offensive efficiency and Defensive efficiency, I would have picked 3/4 correct (ATS/total)... sigh...

as it is I have a 2014 PO record of 1-3 ATS and 0-3-1 for totals, OUCH!

only ARI @CAR ended up a bit predictable ATS

other thoughts...
CIN may be done, their window of opportunity to get to SB is shrinking, the same could be said for DET and perhaps ARI. IND looks like they'll be a perennial PO contender.

I wonder if DAL will get another opportunity next season? BAL and PIT are still status quo as PO contenders.