2015 - week 06 - results

TNF - NO gets the upset, now I wish I had changed my pick, but I forgot... sigh

So who will win?
Will MIA coming off a bye week (CoB) w/an interim HC and new DC and on the road pull off the upset @TEN?    YES!

Other teams CoB, CAR (@SEA), NYJ (vs WAS) and MIN (vs KC) YES, YES, YES

Will BAL w/their numerous injuries get the win @SF? NO

Will NYG w/their numerous injuries get the win @PHI? NO

HOU @JAC is also a tossup game for me, HOU and JAC both have their own issues. HOU will "re-start" QB Hoyer and JAC should have their MLB back. Due to injuries or less than expected defensive prowness this game may be an OVER game
  HOU/OVER combo won

First bits of winter weather this weekend: DEN @CLE, CIN @BUF, ARI @PIT, WAS @NYJ. Definitely cooler: SD @GB, MIA @TEN, KC @MIN (note: MIN in the midst of stadium building, thus they are an outdoor team this year) ONLY PIT won as a home dog and MIA won as a road dog, all other favorites won


Another less than .500 weekend ATS and I just reached .500 for TOTALS
ATS = 6-7-1
Totals = 7-7
Season ATS = 46-43-2
Season Totals = 40-49-2

Notes:
Surprise game ARI loss @PIT, PIT QB Landry Jones subs for PIT QB Vick in Q3 and promptly leads team to TD, for the rest of the half IMO Jones does really well. He needs to start next game.

I was also sorta surprised by MIA domination of TEN, but I guess MIA interim HC Campbell has a fiery personality that inspires the players.

NE did dominate the 2nd half of the game, IND got a garbage time TD to get the cover ATS

2015 - week 07 - results

2015 - week 06 - picks

10/18 update: changed pick from NYG/Under to PHI/Under
10/18 update: changed pick from WAS/Over to NYJ/Under
10/14 update: changed pick from SF/Over to BAL/Over

CoB MIA NYJ CAR MIN
GiB CHI CIN DEN GB
GiB team records:
wk3 1-1 SU 2-0 ATS* (NE* TEN*)
wk4 2-2 SU 3-1 ATS* (MIA NYJ* MIN* CAR*)
wk5 1-3 SU 1-3 ATS* (DAL OAK STL TB*)
wk6 ?-? SU ?-? ATS (CHI? CIN? DEN? GB?)

CoB
wk5 1-1 SU 2-0 ATS* (NE* TEN*)
wk6 ?-? SU ?-? ATS (MIA? NYJ? MIN? CAR?)

10/15 8:25 PM
103 ATL -3 *
104 NO 51 over 

ATL swept NO LY (@ATL 37-34 OT, @NO 30-14)



10/18 1:00 PM
251 DEN -4 ***
252 CLE 42½ *over*

DEN GiB
WH FAV 4-0 SU



10/18 1:00 PM
253 CIN -3½ ******
254 BUF 43 *UNDER*

CIN GiB
BUF QB EJ Manuel 1st start



10/18 1:00 PM
255 KC 44½ under
256 MIN -3½ **

KC O ???
MIN CoB



10/18 1:00 PM
257 HOU -1½ **
258 JAC 43 under

HOU coming off TNF
HOU QB Hoyer 2nd start
HOU swept JAC LY (@JAC 27-13, @HOU 23-17)
5TDs+3-4FGs= 38-41pts
47pts?
taking pts? prudent?
each team s/b able to run on each other



10/18 1:00 PM
259 CHI 43½ *
260 DET -3 under

CHI GiB
DET QB Stafford starts?
DET QB/RB TOs?
DET has swept L4G vs CHI 
(@DET 40-32, @CHI 21-19, @DET 10-0, @CHI 20-14)
The difference this year for CHI, HC/OC Fox/Gase
WH FAV 4-0 SU



10/18 1:00 PM
261 WAS 40½ *under*
262 NYJ -6 *

NYJ CoB
10/18 update LT, CBs OUT



10/18 1:00 PM
263 ARI -3 *
264 PIT 44½ OVER

PIT coming off MNF
PIT WR Bryant starts (off susp 4G)
PIT QB Vick 3rd start
WH DOG 4-0 ATS



10/18 1:00 PM
265 MIA 43½ *UNDER
266 TEN -2½ *

MIA interim HC Campbell 1st game
MIA players keep your job game for interim HC?
MIA CoB



10/18 4:05 PM
267 CAR 41 *
268 SEA -7 ***UNDER***

CAR CoB
SEA 3-0 SU vs CAR L3Y (all @CAR 16-12,12-7,13-9)



10/18 4:25 PM
269 SD 50 under
270 GB -10 ***

SD coming off MNF
GB GiB
AFC West (except of DEN) losing vs NFC N



10/18 4:25 PM
271 BAL -2½ *
272 SF 44 *OVER*



10/18 8:30 PM
273 NE -8½ ***
274 IND 55 UNDER

IND coming off TNF
IND QB Luck starts?



10/19 8:30 PM
275 NYG 50 **UNDER**
276 PHI -4 *

10/15 update: NYG CB, WR OUT

2014 - week 06 - results

The Favorite/Over combo won again for TNF, this must be killing the sports books at the local casinos. I wonder when will they start increasing the spread to better than a TD + FG? So why didn't I take the over, I was thinking along the lines that HOU O would shuffle along. I didn't expect the first half outburst by IND. HOU O did become predictable again when Fitzpatrick had to make a play to win at the end of the game, you knew it was going to happen.

My pre-weekend thoughts:
I wonder if STL run D will put up a fight vs SF run O? Will CAR @CIN be interesting? I'm thinking ATL is such a homer team. Will ARI with all their injuries finally succumb? Will PHI luck run out? Will CLE luck run out? DET @MIN, Caldwell and Co @Zimmer and Co...  Will BUF shutdown NE?


Ouch! I was doing fine with the first 5 games, but then I was stomped upon by ATS and total gods...
NE decides it owns the AFC East, BUF is a pretender
CLE dog pound is barking up a storm, PIT will be lucky to be 8-8 SU this season
CAR at CIN ending in a tie, CAR O on the road surprising me
GB at MIA game much closer than anticipated same goes for SD at OAK
DAL pulls off a shocker at SEA
CHI with an entire new LB corp starting, wins on the road, ATL will be lucky to get to 8-8 SU as well
ARI also with new starters and return of QB Palmer, shows great depth
NYG falls on it's face on SNF - really ugly, embarrassing for them

2014 - week 06 - results

2014 - week 06 - the rest of the weekend picks

a short week for me as I'll be busy Saturday and Sunday, sigh... thus this early posting....

CoB
MIA OAK

GiB
PHI TB


10/12 1:00 PM
251 DEN 9½ *
252 NYJ 47½ under




10/12 1:00 PM
253 PIT 47 *
254 CLE -1½ ***OVER***

CLE NT Taylor OUT
CLE OLB/DE Kruger OUT? back?
CLE CB Haden OUT? hip?
CLE DE Winn OUT? leg?
Normally I just go with the season split for division games and since PIT won the first game at home, CLE should win this game right? But I'm taking a chance... 


10/12 1:00 PM
255 JAC 43 *
256 TEN -4 over

SHOWERS?
TEN LT Roos IR OFY
TEN LT Lewan starts (rookie)
TEN SS Pollard IR OFY



10/12 4:25 PM
257 CHI 54½ *OVER*
258 ATL -3 *



10/12 1:00 PM
259 GB -3½ ***
260 MIA 49 over

MIA SS Jones returns (susp'd 4G)



10/12 1:00 PM
261 DET 43½ *
262 MIN -1½ *under*

I keep flip-flop'g with this game, no real feel for either team



10/12 1:00 PM
263 CAR 43½ UNDER
264 CIN -6½ *

CAR lucky last week?
CIN WR Green OUT?



10/12 1:00 PM
265 NE -3 over
266 BUF 45½ *



10/12 1:00 PM
267 BAL -3 *
268 TB 43 over



10/12 4:05 PM
269 SD -7 ***
270 OAK 43 under



10/12 4:25 PM
271 DAL 47 over
272 SEA -8 *



10/12 4:25 PM
273 WAS 45½ *
274 ARI -3 *under

ARI DEx2 OUT
ARI QB Logan starts?
ARI beat up...



10/12 8:30 PM
275 NYG 50½ *****
276 PHI -3 over

NYG RB Jennings OUT
PHI ILBx2,LG,C,STx2 OUT 



10/13 8:30 PM
277 SF -3½ *
278 STL 43½ under

2014 - week 06 - TNF - picks

This week a division match up...
I'm unsure if HOU will score more than 10-13pts...

10/09 8:25 PM
101 IND -3 *
102 HOU 46½ *UNDER*

2013 - week 06 - results

NYG @CHI, NYG QB Manning just an awful start, though he did get better, but the damage was done, NYG played w/heart, but CHI played w/much more confidence, though this could be a costly win w/LBx2 inj'd.

GB @BAL, it's very unfortunate for GB to lose 2 of their top 3 WR to injuries during the game. A hidden factor is PR/KR (Cobb - looks like right knee). Will return game hold up? WR James Jones was their #1 WR IMO. DL's for both teams are playing well. The big issue appears to be play calling for BAL. If the run isn't working look for the other stuff (dink, dunk game). Why? O' Why? did BAL go for it on 4th down, just tie the game w/a FG. BAL QB Flacco to WR's are out of sync.

PIT @NYJ, I thought NYJ miscues (penalties) would be their undoing. NYJ DL is playing very well, on O they do get some plays, making for close drives that start to bog down once they cross the 50. You would think they could get into FG range. NYJ OL is also holding up fairly well. Again play calling or having that  'go to' guy seems to be missing from their offense. PIT has the lead at the half, but it's close, clearly NYJ is on the rise, but PIT experience seems to be holding them off, enough to get the rare road win.

NO @NE, a bit unusual as NO play calling wasn't up to snuff, it was as if they second guess'd themselves into a loss. A game that NE QB Brady snatched from the jaws of defeat. Lucky in some ways especially w/NO D getting two stops in the last two minutes, only to be one upped by NE D which made NO O go 3-and-out twice in the same span.


So I ended up below .500 ATS and right at .500 for totals (due to push). The lucky teams on the road last week (ARI and IND) lost on the road this weekend. I think the tragic end of MIN RB Peterson 2yr old son did affect him as well as the team. BUF QB Lewis came up big in Q4, though prior to rally, CIN led 24-10.
DET WR Johnson did play, though was mostly a decoy IMO and why did CLE continue to use a safety/CB combo to cover in the 2nd half? I'd say NE was lucky at home, perhaps they'll be unlucky next week.

2013 - week 06 - results

I also noticed (belatedly) that the AFC South all lost 0-4 SU, but were 2-2 ATS

2013 - week 06 - picks

NFC East 1-11 SU vs non-division opponents

TEAMS w/10 days rest 7-1 ATS/SU W(BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL) L[PHI]
this week BUF, CLE

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) NO, OAK
Teams Going into Bye 3-5 ATS/SU W(CAR, MIN, WAS) L[GB, PIT, TB, MIA, ATL]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) MIN, WAS, PIT, TB
Teams Coming Off Bye 1-1 ATS/SU W(GB) L (CAR)

10/13 1:00 PM
203 OAK 40½ under?
204 KC -9 *

a domination game?


10/13 1:00 PM
205 PHI -1½ ****
206 TB 46 under

PHI QB Foles 1st start (preseason game 1)
TB QB Glennon 2nd start (preseason game 2)
PHI can run between 20's, passing w/QB Vick was average @best
PHI QB Foles isn't a runner, we'll need to see RZ passing improve
PHI D should have a decent game, perhaps much better than prior 5
TB will need to rely on run O and D to win.
If game is tight in Q4 than the QB that makes an error first will likely lose.
I'm just thinking PHI will score at least get several(4?) FGs
I'm unsure if TB can score more than 3 times, (9-21pts? 13-17 most likely?) 
10/11 update: changed pick to four star **** from two star **



10/13 1:00 PM
207 GB -3 under?
208 BAL 48½ *

GB has yet to win on the road this year
GB LB Matthews OUT


10/13 1:00 PM
209 DET -3 under?
210 CLE 45½ *

with DET it's simple if Megatron plays the whole game they win, if not they lose
CLE QB Weeden starts


10/13 1:00 PM
211 CAR 44 under
212 MIN -2½ *

CAR has yet to win on the road this year
MIN QB Cassell starts


10/13 1:00 PM
213 STL 43 *
214 HOU -7½ over

get well game for HOU?
HOU TE Daniels OUT


10/13 1:00 PM
215 PIT 41 *
216 NYJ -2½ over

PIT D needs to play better to win


10/13 1:00 PM
217 CIN -7½ ***
218 BUF 41½ under

BUF QB Lewis starts (preseason game 1)


10/13 4:05 PM
219 TEN 40½ under
220 SEA -13½ *

TEN QB Fitzgerald 2nd start (preseason game 2)


10/13 4:05 PM
221 JAC 54 **
222 DEN -27½ **UNDER**

JAC players know how to play vs DEN QB Manning, see yrs vs IND
JAC new LT


10/13 4:25 PM
223 ARI 41½ *?
224 SF -11 under

ARI no run game, but they can pass, ARI D good


10/13 4:25 PM
225 NO 50 *****
226 NE -2½ over

NE getting alot of respect IMO from oddsmakers


10/13 8:30 PM
227 WAS 54 over
228 DAL -5½ *

no real reason why to give up pts


10/14 8:40 PM
229 IND -1½ ***
230 SD 50 *under

MNF normally a high scoring affair

Gruden comment on SD "They're in trouble I believe"

2013 - week 06 - Thursday picks

10/10 8:25 PM
101 NYG 47 over
102 CHI -8 *

NYG should still be 0-fer, but can CHI cover?

This isn't much of a game to watch, since NYG is 0-fer, NYG hasn't scored much on the road since game @DEN (other road games at CAR and KC, just 0 and 7 pts scored). So perhaps under the total might be better. It's just that @home CHI has given up 21, 30, and 26pts this year. So I'm thinking NYG will get at least 14pts which means if CHI scores 34pts then the over will win. (NYG has allowed at least 31pts each game this season).