2015 - week 01 - results

The opening game win for the SB champ trend continues w/NE getting the home win. PIT had a garbage time TD which made the score 21-28, it wasn't that close. 1st half miscues by PIT ST, D and O had the game in NE favor early on. PIT looked like a 20's team and with 2 missed FGs. Play calling by O was a bit curious on the first drive. PIT 2ndary has real issues.

I guess I did ok, compared to last year I did better ATS, but worse on totals.... sigh
results below:

2015 - results - week 01

In hindsight, what would have won more SU:

Just picking the older QB, the QB with more NFL experience won 11 games SU

There were a few games with ties for years of NFL experience. If you had chosen the dog in each case (SEA @STL, TEN @TB, MIA @WAS) you would have won 2 of 3 [MIA was only favorite to win SU]

Of the remaining two games (CLE @NYJ) CLE starting QB inj'd and (NO @ARI) ARI D is formidable or NO O (specifically WRs) are in a funk

ATS:
(if you just picked the QB w/more years of NFL experience, and if tied pick dog)
Again you would have won 11 game ATS, the games that bucked the trend are below:
PIT @NE = Push
CLE @NYJ = HF
MIA @WAS = RF
NO @ARI = HF
NYG @DAL = RD

As for totals... I was doing ok, until the TEN game, from there on the games were not as I envisioned them...sigh..

2015 - week 01 - picks

And so the season begins with a big 'splash' game. Will this game be over hyped? There's a lot of media attention on NE. PIT doesn't have as much, but should be focused as they will be up against the reigning SB champs. You see this every season, SB champs will be taking the toughest shots from their opponents every weekend. It's a schedule that seems to wear down most SB champs, some slower, some faster.

Here's my opening weekend picks:

09/10 8:30 PM
461 PIT 52½ *over*
462 NE -7 *

I've been going over this game flipping back and forth on my picks
for either side and with totals as well...
there are only 4 possibilities:
Fav/Over
Fav/Under
Dog/Over
Dog/Under
In the end, NE seems to be content with their OL, despite their starting center being place on IR (returnable).
They signed a CB off of MIN practice squad.
PIT D seems to be more of a mystery to me. As for PIT O, missing skilled players due to suspensions it's hard to believe they'll keep the scoring up at their previous rate from last year. It's more likely they'll return to that 31+pt scoring once the suspended players return.
Thus with my logic on scoring... PIT should score approx half of the total (26pts) to cover ATS NE will need to score 34+pts and Fav/Over will be the winning combo. Even if PIT only scores 21pts, NE will need to score 32pts for the Fav/Over combo.
I make this with the assumption that PIT will not be running the ball as much, they will be throwing the ball. If PIT runs the ball more than expected, than the over will not occur, due to running the ball shortens the game.
I do expect NE to control the majority of the game. First with passing and later on with running.
Oh well I could be wrong...



09/13 1:00 PM
463 GB -7 *****
464 CHI 49 under

09/13 1:00 PM
465 KC 41 *
466 HOU -1 over

09/13 1:00 PM
467 CLE 39½ *UNDER*
468 NYJ -3 **

09/13 1:00 PM
469 IND -2½ *
470 BUF 46 over

09/13 1:00 PM
471 MIA -4 *****
472 WAS 43½ UNDER

09/13 1:00 PM
473 CAR -3 *
474 JAC 41 *UNDER*

09/13 1:00 PM
475 SEA -4 *
476 STL 41 UNDER

09/13 4:05 PM
477 NO 48 **OVER**
478 ARI -3 *

09/13 4:05 PM
479 DET 46 *
480 SD -3 *OVER*

09/13 4:25 PM
481 TEN 41½ *
482 TB -3 under

09/13 4:25 PM
483 CIN -3½ **
484 OAK 43½ under

09/13 4:25 PM
485 BAL 48½ *
486 DEN -4 over

09/13 8:30 PM
487 NYG 51½ UNDER
488 DAL -6 *****

09/14 7:10 PM
489 PHI -3 ***
490 ATL 56 over

09/14 10:20 PM
491 MIN -2½ ****
492 SF 41½ under

2014 - week 01 - picks

really unsure with MIN @STL, I could pick either side and total, went with the DOG/Under combo, but I could've picked FAV/U or FAV/O or DOG/O over

09/04 8:30 PM
461 GB 45 *
462 SEA -5½ over

GB O vs SEA D?
SEA O vs GB D?



09/07 1:00 PM
463 NO 52 ****
464 ATL -1 over

NO owns ATL
ATL D have they improved? ?FS?
ATL ST major improvement VETSx3



09/07 1:00 PM
465 MIN 45½ *
466 STL -6 under

MIN O?


09/07 1:00 PM
467 CLE 40½ under
468 PIT -6 ***

CLE a lot of hoopla at QB
PIT owns CLE



09/07 1:00 PM
469 JAC 52 *under 
470 PHI -11 *

JAC D front 4 significant improvement
taking pts seems prudent, but OL???
JAC ST PR???
JAC RT Bradfield a liability?




09/07 1:00 PM
471 OAK 40 under
472 NYJ -5 *

OAK O n D, don't expect much
OAK QB Carr 1st start
NYJ 2ndary, no time to gell



09/07 1:00 PM
473 CIN 43½ *
474 BAL -2½ over?

CIN on the rise?
BAL O?
BAL 2ndary? FS? SS?



09/07 1:00 PM
475 BUF 48½ *UNDER*
476 CHI -6½ *

strength vs strength
BUF D GOOD! O just the opposite
CHI O GOOD! D just the opposite
it's tempting to take BUF
but BUF QB Manuel has accuracy issues



09/07 1:00 PM
477 WAS 46 *UNDER*
478 HOU -2½ *

WAS O ? D OK
WAS SS Meriweather susp'd G1-2
HOU O work in progress, D up!?



09/07 1:00 PM
479 TEN 44 UNDER
480 KC -6 ***

TEN O needs to stick w/run game, pass O suspect
TEN D tackling issue
TEN ST most dynamic KR? & PR? Washington & McCluster



09/07 1:00 PM
481 NE -3½ *****
482 MIA 47½ UNDER

MIA O? OL ?????
MIA Air Raid?
note: NE played PHI in preseason and held joint practices, you would think NE is really prep'd



09/07 4:25 PM
483 CAR -1 ****
484 TB 39½ **UNDER**

CAR QB Newton ribs OUT? miss'd Wed
CAR Qb Anderson w/1's on Wed
CAR O? just run? pass?
TB OL ????
TB OC Tedford recovering surgery 10+days ago



09/07 4:25 PM
485 SF -5½ **OVER**
486 DAL 49 *

DAL needs to win high scoring game
SF D doubtful for high scores
SF O ball control?
SF ST much younger TY



09/07 8:30 PM
487 IND 55½ *
488 DEN -7 **under**

IND GcG have nearly no(0) time to gel during PS
IND DE/LB Mathis susp'd G1-4
DEN WR Welker susp'd G1-4



09/08 7:10 PM
489 NYG 46 *over?
490 DET -4 *

DET HC Caldwell, can't trust O



09/08 10:20 PM
491 SD 44½ over
492 ARI -3½ *

SD needs to win high score O games, D porous
SD D can't stop run

2013 - week 01 - results

BAL @DEN, this game had DEN written all over it, besides the game banners of BAL QB Flacco hanging in DEN, the NFL and/or BAL was unable to convince the Baltimore Orioles to move their game to accomodate the normal home game opener for the Super Bowl champions. Tie this is with the leadership loss and roster churn this off season for BAL and BAL played very well into the half and led 17-14. BAL did have two significant injuries occur in Q2 to WR/PR/KR Jones and RT Oher. DEN QB Mannings record tie'g 7 passing TDs set the total OVER just by themselves. A lot more scoring than I envisioned and a lot more ST errors, that led to turnovers and eventually TDs by both teams. DEN LB Woodyard was injured in Q4 as well though the game was well in hand by then. A notable numbers of drops by BAL WR's and TE's occurred as well, BAL is in early season form, DEN closer to mid season form.

CIN @CHI, CBS game, CIN for the most part played a very good game, CHI O was dependent on their D and their opportunistic ways, CHI CBs are top three, CB Tillman played very well. CHI should have lost IMO, but I think CIN had a bit of a let down mid-Q3, CIN TE rookie looks like a keeper, CIN LB Burfict was injured in 2nd Half Q4 I think.

ATL @NO, FOX game, ATL played fairly well for most of the game, NO O played inspired at times and their D came up w/big plays when they needed it. This was not to be ATL day.

GB @SF, FOX game, GB D looks improved LB Mathews is in mid-season form, not so much w/their O, game was tied 21-21 into Q4. SF is very interesting passing their way for the majority of game and then counting on their ground game to control Q4

NYG @DAL, NBC, SNF, NYG 6TOs, (3 QB Manning ints, 2 Wilson fumbles, 1 ST error) 3 in a row to start the game should have put them in a deep hole but they emerged w/a 3-3 tie and kept it close for the majority of the game. Injuries also occurred....

Not the greatest of results especially ATS, surprisingly ok with Totals, quite the opposite of expected results, in many games.

2013 - week 01 - results

Surprise of the weekend - TEN road win @PIT

notable:
the entire AFC North lost there season openers, BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT
NFC South 1-3 SU
AFC East 3-1 SU
AFC South 3-1 SU
NFC West 3-1 SU

2013 - week 01 - picks

09/08 1:00 PM
453 NE -10 ***
454 BUF 50½ *UNDER*

BUF rookie QB Manuel starts
BUF CB Gilmore out


09/08 1:00 PM
455 TEN 42½ under
456 PIT -7 * 

PIT OL run game struggling looks link dink n dunk season
TEN as QB Locker goes so goes their O


09/08 1:00 PM
457 ATL 54 *
458 NO -3 OVER

NO DL/DEx2 IR?, LB issue?
NO WR Meacham returns


09/08 1:00 PM
459 TB -3 *****
460 NYJ 40 under

TB O run first in RZ
TB G Nicks doubtful - big loss
NYJ rookie QB Smith starts (not ready?)
Can NYJ score?


09/08 1:00 PM
461 KC -3½ ***
462 JAC 41 under

JAC will need to win w/run O
JAC unsure of O, will they score?


09/08 1:00 PM
463 CIN 42½ **
464 CHI -3 over

so why is CHI favored?


09/08 1:00 PM
465 MIA 41 under
466 CLE -1 *

MIA O 'between the 20's team', can't score in RZ during preseason
CLE youngest team in NFL?


09/08 1:00 PM
467 SEA -3 ****
468 CAR 45½ over?

CAR OL issues?


09/08 1:00 PM
469 MIN 46½ *
470 DET -4 UNDER

MIN can control game


09/08 1:00 PM
471 OAK 47½ UNDER
472 IND -9 *****

OAK worst OL and DL?


09/08 4:25 PM
473 ARI 41 *? 
474 STL -4½ UNDER

ARI OL?


09/08 4:25 PM
475 GB 49½ over
476 SF -5 *

strength vs strength
GB O vs SF D



09/08 8:30 PM
477 NYG 48½ UNDER
478 DAL -3 *

NYG OL issue C, RG less than 3 yrs/0 starts each, RT rookie
NYG 2ndary?
NYG as much as 5 starters injury prone this year
DAL Guard issues, 6 guards with various inj's
DAL NT Ratliff out
DAL DE Spencer out


09/09 7:10 PM
479 PHI 50½ OVER?
480 WAS -4 *

PHI D hmmm?
WAS DL stout vs run, OL depth???


09/09 10:20 PM
481 HOU -3½ ****
482 SD 44½ UNDER

what will SD do?

2013 - week 01 - Thursday - picks

09/05 8:30 PM
451 BAL 48 UNDER
452 DEN -8 *

NFL Marketing flying Flacco banners @mile high stadium
duhh... advantage DEN, no respect from NFL
as if losing to BAL in last years playoffs wasn't enough motivation for DEN
BAL DT Jones out, other DL issues
DEN LB Von Miller susp'd

DEN could've won last year, BAL team experience seemed to take the game over, I don't see the same experience with BAL this year...