2013 - week 19 - results

NO @SEA, FOX, SEA D goose eggs NO for 3 quarters, then let NO back into the game to make it a bit interesting in Q4, but not really SEA wins 23-15 SU, but does not cover ATS.


IND @NE, CBS, another wet game w/rain. NE run O is dominating, Q2 the game seems to be getting boring w/NE up 21-10 and their ST center has a really high snap, causing their punter to chase ball and he ends up fumbling the ball out of the end zone for a safety. NE D safety and CB interfere with each other interception of QB Luck, IND really lucky. Last 2 min and NE D isn't getting to IND QB Luck, but the ball bounces off their FB (ball appears to behind target) and NE D gets another interception. It's NE QB Brady's turn with 74 seconds to score before the end of half, but NE ends up punting and IND O gets the ball back with 37 sec left. So why run the ball on 1st down w/IND? Really odd since they also used a TO earlier to save time for IND O. At the half NE 21-12. Q3 and IND out scores NE 10-8, so at the end of Q3 NE leads 29-22. NE owns Q4 and wins going away 43-22 on two rushing TDs and w/more IND ints(2) this game is done.
NE CB Dennard starts and ends the game with interceptions.

SF @CAR, FOX, game pretty much goes as expected, CAR does get a nice TD (Q2 scoring for CAR), but for the most part SF D stifles CAR O (goose eggs CAR O Q1, Q3, Q4) and CAR D needs to stop the run better as well as pass. CAR ST played much better than SF ST. SF one glaring weakness. One other note CAR OC should be placed on the carpet for play calling when inside the 5yd line twice and no score.


SD @DEN, CBS, DEN D is playing inspired, it's really interesting CB Bailey is finally playing but is taking on the slot WR, instead of #1 WR. First TO of the game goes SD way, but they can't move the ball and miss a FG(it's really windy). SD punter gets injured, this game is really going DEN way. Another uncharacteristic TO by DEN in the endzone stifles another scoring opportunity for DEN. SD kneels and goes into the half down 14-0. DEN D goose eggs SD for 3 quarters, but Q4 SD scores 17 pts, but it's not enough to overcome DEN 24 pts.



WOW, a perfect weekend 8 for 8 on my picks, perfect ATS, perfect TOTALS, I need to remember this, I think I have, I just didn't blogged it. Now at least it's for all to see, this can be done. You too can win ATS and on Totals during the playoffs.

I'm now 5-2-1 ATS and 7-1 Totals for the playoffs.

2013 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs - picks

Going out on limb, with a few picks, taking NE to cover due to emo win by IND, normal season game I probably wouldn't do so. Taking pts w/NO, I just don't expect the same game they had earlier this season.

The betting angle that won ATS last week
Bet on the older team (based on starters):

This week:
**NO, IND, SF, DEN**

note: there is a 1 yr difference between SD and DEN, SD hold edge w/career starts, all other categories DEN holds edge



The betting angle that won SU last week
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
NO(10%) SEA(16%)
IND(7%) NE(11%)
SF(11%) CAR(7%)
SD(9%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, NE, SF, DEN **


The betting angle that won for totals last week
indoor game OVER, nice playing environment
outdoor game UNDER, frigid(WC19), cold and wet, frigid(WC-10)
(WC = Wind Chill)

This week:
all outdoors, UNDER????


Other notables from last week:
in two games the team(NO,SF) that had the ball last scored and won the game NO @PHI and SF @GB
SD D maybe the most underrated this year as CIN O really sputtered at home, putting up goose eggs in Q1, Q3, Q4
IND first half was dismal, dominated by KC, IND second half the most memorable for the weekend




01/11 4:35 PM
111 NO 48 *
112 SEA -8½ **UNDER**

SEA won wk13 @home 34-7
open dome?
I keep thinking give up the pts, but taking the pts - seems to be the prudent thing to do, I'm expecting a close game as NO is playing really well w/O, fairly well w/D and not so bad w/ST
SEA O can be a mystery to me, sometimes playing well and sometimes not, if they stick to their ground game, UNDER the total is the better bet



01/11 8:15 PM
113 IND 53 over
114 NE -7½ *

IND was very lucky to win last weekend vs KC, perhaps the luckiest to win.
NE should be well prep'd to finish the game, even if they attain a two score lead.
All of NE losses this year have been on the road, I don't expect them to lose, but will they cover?
Interesting pick up w/IND acquiring former NE WR Branch, seems to me this will help IND D.
I'm much more undecided w/total, first choosing under, but after some thought picking OVER.



01/12 1:00 PM
115 SF -2 **
116 CAR 43 ***UNDER***

CAR won wk10 on the road 10-9
I'm just thinking SF gains the season series split, CAR O especially on 3rd down appears to be ineffective for most of the game, this time SF D may goose egg CAR O.



01/12 4:40 PM
117 SD 55 *
118 DEN -9½ under

split series, road team wins
wk10 DEN 28-20 
wk15 SD 27-20

an even colder place to play for SD
noted: This year DEN has losses to the remaining AFC PO opponents IND(6pt), NE(3pt), SD(7pt)

A safer bet would be to tease(+6) the side and total, 
bet SD+6 [+15½], Total UNDER+6 [61]
or DEN+6 [-3½], Total UNDER+6 [61]

I'm thinking DEN wins SU, winning by 10+pts maybe tough to do vs SD HC McCoy who is very familiar w/DEN players