2012 - week 08 - results

Very good week ATS, just barely below .500 for totals. And for the year I'm again above .500 !!

Interestingly enough key injuries may or may not have had affected their team. OAK was w/o their LT yet won their game on the road at KC or this could be just a reflection that KC as a team is 'lost', QB Quinn did go down in Q1, but QB Cassel sub'd and did fairly well.
TEN was also w/o their LT and they lost @home to IND. IND seems to have a running game
NYJ was w/o their LB Scott and were blown out @home by MIA, NYJ seems to be another 'lost' team.
WAS had questions with their MLB Fletcher as well prior to game, but he played and they still lost to PIT. Seems to me WAS WR's had the dropsies, could be the weather..
Speaking of the weather, it seemed to help CLE in their upset at home of SD. Can you believe a dome team beat a grass team in inclement weather? ATL did just that to PHI and now PHI may see a new HC in the coming year. JAC played way UP for their game with GB in cold conditions (under 40 degrees with wind chill) and w/o their RB or is it GB had too many skill players out (WRs) to get a +2TD victory (and cover the spread)?

weather games ... (see possible-weather-games-for-week-8 )
O/U 1-3, ATL @PHI end game total of 47 pts went just over the set 46.5 total, ATL scored on their first six possessions, just dominating, PHI got a garbage time TD
ATS 3-1 WAS lost to PIT due to WR's and play calling IMO, WAS should've run more


Again this year the designated home team (STL) for the overseas game, really lost from the beginning without home field advantage.

CAR DL played well, just their O has no consistency in passing or running game, so CHI won 'ugly' just like GB

DET was a bit lucky at home (another ugly win?), DAL was inept again at the end of a game (a NYG ugly win?).

I wonder if DEN will meet SF in NO for the super bowl?

teams coming off a bye week were 3-3 SU and ATS
teams going into their bye week were 2-2 SU and ATS

Possible Weather games for week 8

There's a recent article about a "Frankenstorm" approaching, projected to start on Sunday,
see http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_SUPER_STORM?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

It may be a bit early, but both PHI and NYJ games should go under total. Even CLE game has a better chance of going under total (I had chosen over earlier in the week, but now I would hedge if I had placed an over bet on that game)

Wind is a key factor, making the game like an amusement ride for kickers at times and if rain comes into play, we should see much more conservative play calling by OC's, a heavy dose of run, which favors both under the total and taking the pts (ATL, MIA, WAS and maybe CLE)

2012 - week 08 - picks

10/28 1:00 PM
219 NE -7 *
220 STL 47 UNDER

GiB NE
GiB STL

NE is 0-2 vs NFC west (loss to ARI & SEA).
Of all the NFC west teams, geographically STL isn't in the west. I expect STL to lose, they lack the
horses on O and can only play keep away to try and win at home, though +7 maybe enough to get the win
ATS

STL arrived on TUES, NE arriving on Friday
I'm wondering just how focused STL will be? They seem to really like their role as ambassadors, while NE is all business.


10/28 1:00 PM
221 IND 46½ UNDER
222 TEN -3½ ***

IND was lucky last week, no such luck @TEN


10/28 1:00 PM
223 JAC  45½   under
224 GB -15½ **

JAC - can't believe if QB Henne starts that they'll be much better than last week. They'll need to play
keep away to have any chance to win.
GB w/o S Woodson
update: 10/25 noted totals finally posted and side went up 3pts (I'm not changing my original pick), still this should be a 3TD game for GB, I 'd put the over/under for first downs by JAC at 5.5

10/28 1:00 PM
225 SD -3 OVER
226 CLE 44½ *

CoB SD

CLE O needs to step up, if they do, they win, if not SD gets a steal


10/28 1:00 PM
227 ATL 46½ **
228 PHI -2½ UNDER

CoB ATL
CoB PHI

Hard to take such an under performing team like PHI and even with firing of their DC, will this be enough
to have a sounder game on their O?Taking pts seems best. Should go under the total


10/28 1:00 PM
229 SEA 43 *
230 DET -3 UNDER

DET has the pleasure of playing another really good D with a secondary that can cover, so why again are
they favored? Even at home, they'll have a tough time stopping SEA ground game. UPSET of the week?


10/28 1:00 PM
231 MIA 40½ *
232 NYJ -2½ under

CoB MIA
GiB NYJ

1st thought to take NYJ, but MIA, plays close, is coming off a bye and is a very healthy team, MIA gets
the season split


10/28 1:00 PM
233 CAR 44½ UNDER
234 CHI -7½ *****

Will firing of GM, awaken CAR team? doubtful, they have more problems then just awakening team
This could be a laugher...


10/28 1:00 PM
235 WAS 47½ *
236 PIT -5½ UNDER

Both team like to run, UNDER the total is the much better bet. PIT is slowing digressing, WAS is on the
rise and played a much better team than PIT did last week


10/28 4:05 PM
237 OAK 43 OVER
238 KC -1 *

CoB KC

OAK was just way too lucky last week, KC has a get well game on deck


10/28 4:25 PM
239 NYG 47½ *
240 DAL -1 UNDER

DAL is the weakest of NFC East D's
NYG gains the season split
update: noted line has moved to DAL +1½ to +2 and DAL will be w/o LB Sean Lee who was calling the plays for their D


10/28 8:30 PM
241 NO 54½ under?
242 DEN -6 *

CoB DEN

I was thinking of NO @1st, but outdoors, altitude and a weak D will be NO undoing, even with the emotional lift of Vitt back as interim HC


10/29 8:40 PM
243 SF -7 *
244 ARI 37 UNDER

GiB SF

SF has returned to a run O and their D is that much better. ARI needs to find an O, UNDER the total is
the best bet

2012 - week 08 - Thursday pick

10/25 8:25 PM

103 TB 41½ *
104 MIN -6½ UNDER

TB on the road 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS
MIN has yet to lose (4-0) @home SU, 3-1 ATS

TB O seems to be on the rise
MIN O seems southward bound

TB D decent
MIN D dominating at time

edge goes to MIN ST, though TB field position may be in their favor

Why is line so much more than standard -3 or -3.5?

Projected:
This should be an 11 possession game for each team
TB 1-3 scores 7-21
MIN 1-2 scores 7-14

If either D scores, game will go OVER total

HOME team on THURSDAY 4-1 SU 2-3 ATS, DOG 4-1 ATS

2012 - week 07 - results

So ATS above .500 record this weekend, but totals took a big dip and I was correct on about 1/3

A couple of pushes ATS & totals as well I suppose if I had added the 1/2 hook, I'd come out ahead but I'll just leave it at that.

Home teams TB, STL, NE & CIN all lost ATS and of course I had picked on them

GiB (Going into Bye) teams were 1-3 ATS (HOU - BAL, CIN, BUF)
CoB (Coming off Bye) teams were 2-1-1 ATS (JAC, NO - CAR - CHI)




"Young teams"

TB plays really well in 1st half vs "teams it finds challenging", then no well in 2nd half. So bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half

BUF allowed TEN QB Hasselbeck & Co. to stage the comeback win

JAC scores only 6pts after both their star RB Jones-Drew and their QB Gabbert left the game due to injuries, and you can stick them in the 'young' team category, because they couldn't put away OAK, though they did have a tougher task on the road and down two starters. AND JAC HC/OC made a curious 4th-and-1 to go in Q2, just punt you had a 17-3 lead....


  CIN plays like a young team and didn't seem to know how to put away PIT after seemingly having a ground game in Q1 that was unstoppable

and in the battle of young teams CLE @IND, the home team won SU

2012 - week 07 - picks

10/21 1:00 PM
415 TEN 46½ ***
416 BUF -3½ under

GiB BUF
I'm thinking BUF was a bit lucky to win last week and TEN QB Hasselbeck is in early season form, already!


10/21 1:00 PM
417 ARI 40½ UNDER
418 MIN -6 *

ARI D is really good, so is MIN, difference is O


10/21 1:00 PM
419 CLE 45 *
420 IND -3 over

CLE coming off a much needed win, I don't think there will be a letdown. IND D is lacking....


10/21 1:00 PM
421 BAL 48½ OVER
422 HOU -6½ *

GiB BAL
GiB HOU
HOU should cover, with the demise of BAL D on display for the past several weeks (and seasons according to some talking heads) they may need 10+pts


10/21 1:00 PM
423 GB -5½ under
424 STL 44½ *

Taking the pts, seems sound STL @home, good D, O plays UP and ST should be OK. GB off big win, I don't think they'll see man2man D the rest of the season



10/21 1:00 PM
425 DAL -2½ *
426 CAR 45½ UNDER

CoB CAR
you know if DAL could put 'IT' together they could swamp CAR, who has no ID on O and D is starting to stink


10/21 1:00 PM
427 WAS 50 *
428 NYG -6½ OVER

Can WAS sweep NYG again like last year?


10/21 1:00 PM
429 NO -3 UNDER
430 TB 49½ *

CoB NO
Unsure if I should take TB, I don't trust their O, but I trust NO D even less


10/21 4:25 PM
431 NYJ 47 under
432 NE -10½ *

NE will get the win and hopefully the cover, DD is large, just I still can't trust NYJ to stay within number


10/21 4:25 PM
433 JAC 43 *
434 OAK -4 OVER

CoB JAC
Thought about taking OAK, thought about JAC, just took the pts, this is a stay away game...


10/21 8:30 PM
435 PIT -2½ OVER
436 CIN 46 *

GiB CIN
Way too many inj's for PIT to be road fav


10/22 8:40 PM
437 DET 47½ UNDER
438 CHI -6 **

CoB CHI
CHI D even w/Urlacher in twilight, can still stop DET O with consistency. The question is can DET D stop CHI O?

2012 - week 07 - Thursday pick

10/18 8:25 PM

303 SEA 37½ *
304 SF -7 OVER



SEA plays with chip on shoulder, lost last year 2x to SF, they should be UP for this game