Friday, June 22, 2012

Goodbye Leroy's and Hello ... William Hill

Hot off the press, see http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/21/british-oddsmaker-william-hill-gets-ok-operate-159/

The UK oddsmaker will also be taking over Lucky's and the Cal Neva Satellite operations. So in game wagering has another venue to place bets, this will raise the stakes and profile of these smaller sportsbooks in NV.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

MIN WR Harvin wants out - shocking?

There's a recent article on nfl.com as well as other sites, see http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/06/20/shocked-vikings-players-and-coaches-react-to-the-news-that-wr-percy-harvin-wants-out/ that describes coaches and team mates reaction.

Some fans go so far as to describe Harvin as whiny, you could say he's spoiled. He came from Florida where they won a National Championship, then in his first year with NFL he get's the gunslinger QB Favre and a MIN team that had a good chance to make it to the playoffs and had Super Bowl aspirations.

Now my guess is he had a reality check moment at practice (mini-OTA) and he knows this team is nowhere close to competing at getting into playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. There division maybe the toughest in the NFL with Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago having QB's in or near their prime. Who does MIN have as a QB? Can you name him off the top of your head? And remember the adage "QB's make the WR's", well Harvin wants to win like everyone else, he just realizes that the chances of winning consistently are minimal at best and thus want's out due to QB most likely not up to par with the rest of division.

I can't blame Harvin for wanting out, most NFL careers are fairly short and if he sticks with this years team in the near term his stats will be unproductive due to QB and his value will diminish the longer he stays with team and present offensive scheme. The question should be "Will management let him go?" Remember last year wasn't a productive year for him as far as stats are concerned, but this can be attributed to poor QB play and since MIN didn't upgrade at that position this offseason, he'll most likely have a similiar year as last year at best. He just wants the taste of success again and is finding it hard to swallow the bitter pill of losing and ineffectiveness that I suspect will permeate the team this upcoming year. MIN is years away from contending and Harvin wants to play for/with a contender, not a pretender.

If I were management I would trade him while their still is value, if they wait his value will diminish throughout the year and at the end of the season they'll most likely cut him and he'll be picked up by another team. This would be a disaster scenario for MIN, but it appears DET gave MIN their management curse and I predict MIN will hold on to Harvin for too long.

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

QB Jay Cutler is controversial

Take a look at what Cosell has posted Cosell talks the perception and reality of jay cutler and post your own take if you like.

As for me, this is what I think...

I've always thought Cutler was an NFL caliber QB as I watched a lot of SEC football and sure enough in the NFL he has had his good moments and bad moments. I guess there hasn't been enough good moments to out weigh the bad moments and thus the controversy.

So what about this upcoming season of 2012, will the Bears rise? fall? or stay the same?

I'm picking rise.

The Bears current strength lies in a Super Bowl caliber D and outstanding ST play, though with recent rule changes ST will not likely factor in as much as prior seasons.

Thus one of the questions is what to do with PR/KR Hester. He's listed as a WR, but he needs to improve on route running IMO and I would place him in the slot and only the slot. None of the odd experimentation the former OC Martz did with him as a #1 WR, c'mon Hester has speed, but not size, it's the slot and only the slot.

Now with the jettison of OC Martz and promotion of Tice to OC, we'll probably see a much more explosive offense from the Bears. The unknown quatity in my mind is the rookie WR Alshon Jeffery. I liked what I saw at times playing against SEC caliber CBs, but other times not so much. I'll admit I didn't watch the Gamecocks as much as I should have, but I had already assessed their QB Garcia as being average at best. Thus if you subscribe to the theory of the QB makes the WR, there would be a lot of average moments for Garcia to Jeffery. Jeffery will now catch passes from Cutler who throws with a lot of velocity, so I'm just wondering will Jeffery prove to have the hands that their #1 WR Marshall has proven to have.

Most QB's make the WR's in the NFL and not the other way around, there have been a few exceptions with the most recent, at least in my mind, is WR Moss. Cutler should significantly produce better numbers with a true #1WR, a fiesty #3WR and a TE that will be allowed to catch the ball this coming season. Notice I'm unsure of #2 WR thus it would be a lot of speculation to project a good or bad year for rookie.

This year the Bears will have all their OTA's, mini camps and training camp to install a new offense. Score 1 for the O as their opponents D will need several games to get enough film/tape to make in game adjustments that work. So I suspect the Bears will have early season momentum on their side for the first month, if they extend it into the second month and stay away from injuries along their aging D, they should have a great chance of making the play offs. Granted they are probably playing in the best division of the NFC with GB and DET as clear contenders as well.

Play calling is the other big part of the equation that will factor in and with Tice running the show, we should see a significant increase from Cutler and Co. Cutler will be able to call audibles this years as opposed to prior years under Martz and the O-Line should looked improved with less 5 and 7 steps drops than prior regime with former OC. I would rather have WR Knox available and playing, but I wouldn't count on him this year. The Bears dreams will ride on Cutler and his arm, they should have good fortune this year.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

KC quandry or just not the right point of view

I was reading this article Bowe and Chiefs both have valid arguments @PFW and perhaps to most this is very sound, but I have to disagree.

Why? well if you believe in the old adage that "QB's make WR's" then you can see why Bowes numbers have come to be. It's QB Cassel that needs upgrading, not WR Bowe IMO.

Look at the class of WR's he's being compared to and look at their QB's. See the status of their QBs - they are all very good, maybe even great. Granted WR Fitzgerald does not have a good enough QB at the moment, but when he did (prior years see Warner)he was very impressive. Bowe's numbers would be even more impressive if he played with a better QB. QB Cassel at best is somewhere between average to good, when he's off (accuracy issues in my mind) KC will lose most of the time. The strength of their team is the Defense and ST, not the Offense.

Pay the man, if you want to win games, the sooner the better or let him go elsewhere and he'll be productive.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Randy Moss - comeback

I just read an article at nfl.com see http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/05/11/understanding-what-you-are-watching-when-wr-randy-moss-practices/

and though this is good insight I think when you're watching the game. It isn't so much if the WR is open for the QB to toss one his way, but whether the QB has lost confidence in his WR.

Take any QB in the nfl past or present, they alway develop with a favorite WR and this can last for years, sometimes it seems to last for only a season or two or as short as a game or two.

If we're using NE as an example with Brady and Moss, they hooked up early on, but D's started to adjust and Brady is not known for forcing the ball, when he did so with Moss he was bitten badly with interceptions and incompletions. I suspect the same thing will happen this year with Smith to Moss, maybe 3 to 4 consecutive games of good numbers but after the first month, D's will be ready and Smith will return to the inside game with TE Davis. Hopefully Smith will target (force) Moss in the endzone where his abilities were on clear display with QB Culpepper while they were a duo in MIN. This is what Brady didn't do with Moss in the endzone, I'm not blaming either it could be the OC just didn't want to call 'jump ball' plays, but I would have especially if I suspect D's will continue to double cover Moss in the end zone.
Most likely a front and back bracket, but here's where a good QB can get his WR to either stretch right or left, to go with play can get the score, just like in basketball. Interestingly enough, you see this type of play in the nfl with NO TE Graham and on occasion with NE TE Gronk, but I do recall, watching SD TE Gates and ATL TE Gonzales completing the same type of play in past years.

Think of it, it's just like a point guard getting the ball to his power forward or center to the left or right of basket while being double guarded or bracketed with a player fronting and a player behind the 'scoring machine'. The point guard always knows his guy is going either left or right and tosses that pass to the open area where his guy gets the ball and turns and scores. The same could be done in the endzone, especially with a WR like Moss and this is far simpler than basketball, because WR catches the ball, stays in-bounds and it's counted as a TD.

I hope we'll see these types of plays with Smith to Moss and if not perhaps with some other tandem. They both need to be on the same page and once it reoccurs with some frequency, look for other teams to emulate it, after all this is a copycat league, right?

Friday, May 04, 2012

a moment of silence for #55

A moment of silence for former Chargers LB Junior Seau planned for 5/5 at 5:55 PST.

A Loss Hits Home

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Sporting News Conference Analysis 2012 Post Draft

AFC

NFC

There's a lot of draft analysis coverage on the 'net, but Sporting News broke their coverage down by 'division' (which is one my favorite points of view). I don't agree entirely with their analysis, but for the most part it's fairly sound.

My own take is that the best improvement for all divisions is the AFC North their teams are all significantly improved, and worst perhaps is either the AFC West or NFC West.

TB is perhaps the most interesting team, I'm expecting an O scheme much like SF played this past year. Conservative O (run the ball) and sound ST and D play to maximize their chances of winning. With NO numerous suspensions the writing is on the wall for at best an 8-8 year. CAR should be on the upswing except for losing their G Wharton has me second guessing them and ATL with their miserable playoff lost where the D scored 2pts (safety) and the O scored 0pts (zero) has me thinking they'll rise for bit and then fall flat again, which will bring out the questioning and self-doubt which will doom their season.

HOU rose to the top of the AFC South last year and should remain so in the forseeable future. IND and JAC need several more drafts to rise and TEN appears to be stuck in place.

If you believe in the 'loser of the super bowl curse will have a bad year the following season', then NE will not be on top which leaves either NYJ or BUF, because MIA is nowhere near to being playoff bound IMO for the AFC East. So do you believe in the strength of NYJ with a D or BUF with an O?

CHI seems to be having the best off season for the NFC North, with GB and DET not far behind, but MIN really makes you wonder if they are really trying to get out of the dog house or maybe they want to leave for a fairer city?

As far as the NFC East, they are all chasing NYG and DAL still has the wrong attitude of 'we just need one more piece to add to the puzzle', PHI kept to their strong interior lineman beliefs which should help them and WAS I don't believe really has an identity and thus will remain the cellar dweller.